16-02-2025
James Webb telescope to study asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032
STORY: The James Webb Space Telescope - launched to study things like the formation of the earliest galaxies - is going to be used to learn everything we can about this: asteroid '2024 YR4.'
:: ESA
The asteroid has an approximately 98% chance of safely passing Earth on December 22, 2032, according to recent data.
:: ESA
But while Juan Luis Cano at the European Space Agency's Planetary Defence Office says people should not be too concerned about the possibility of an impact…
He says astronomers need more data.
:: Juan Luis Cano, Planetary Defence Office
'This is a warning for us as scientists and researchers that we should put a lot of attention on this subject..."
That's where the James Webb telescope comes in.
The asteroid was first recognized as a potential threat in December 2024.
It's density and composition is currently unknown...
But it's estimated to be between 131 and 295 feet across and traveling about 15 times the speed of a high-velocity bullet.
The James Webb Space Telescope will be brought in to get a more precise estimate of the asteroid's size and to study the heat it emits, rather than the visible light it reflects.
This method can provide a more accurate size estimation - crucial for assessing the asteroid's potential hazard.
:: ESA
The first round of observations from Webb will take place in early March, and the second round in May.
With those details, there's a good chance the risk of impact could be eliminated, Cano said.
'So this is good news because in nine of ten cases, we will be able to remove these objects from the risk list. However, this is still a 10% probability that this object will remain in the list after May, in which case we would only be able to see it again in the spring of 2028 and only then we would know whether it would be an impact trajectory or not with it.'
:: File
If the asteroid's impact probability remains above the 1% threshold even after the Webb observations, scientists will discuss Earth's response.
That could include crashing a spacecraft into it to deflect it off course, a technique successfully demonstrated by NASA's DART spacecraft in 2022.
Asked about a worst-case scenario, Cano references the 1908 Tunguska event over Siberia that leveled 830 square miles of trees.
He said if YR4 were to be about 295 feet:
"...We would easily be speaking of ten times the effect of Tunguska, of the Tunguska event."
