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Business Standard
7 days ago
- Politics
- Business Standard
With Russia airfield attacks, Ukraine aims for strategic and symbolic blow
While the full extent of the damage is still unknown, the operation shows how Kyiv has been able to adapt and evolve over the war using drones. Ukraine's drone attacks on airfields deep inside Russia on Sunday were strategic and symbolic blows that military analysts said were designed to slow Moscow's bombing campaign and demonstrate that Kyiv can still raise the cost of war for the Kremlin. After more than a year of planning, Ukraine was able to plant drones on Russian soil, just miles away from military bases. Then in a coordinated operation on Sunday, Ukrainian drones attacked five different regions in Russia. Some were launched from containers attached to semis, their flights captured on videos verified by The New York Times. Plumes of smoke billowed above one base. At another, strategic bombers were hit. Although the full extent of the damage is unknown, the attack, known as Operation Spider's Web, showed how Ukraine is adapting and evolving in the face of a larger military with deeper resources. Using drones, Kyiv has been able to push Russia out of much of the Black Sea, limit its gains on the front lines despite Ukraine's own troop shortages, and hamper Russia's ability to amass large concentrations of forces for major offensives. The operation on Sunday, along with extensive bombardments on Ukrainian cities by Moscow, also complicate ongoing efforts for diplomacy. Delegations from both sides met Monday for peace talks in Istanbul, with no breakthrough on a cease-fire announced. After the attacks, there were calls for a swift response across Russian media, and Ukrainians braced for retaliation even as they celebrated an operation that gave their beleaguered nation a much needed morale boost. Both sides have put out assessments that were not immediately verifiable. Ukraine said that 117 drones were used in the attacks and that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged. Russian military bloggers played down the damage; the Russian Ministry of Defense said that Ukraine had attacked airfields in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions, and that Moscow had thwarted attacks at three of the bases. The New York Times verified videos that showed successful strikes at Olenya Air Base in the Murmansk region and Belaya Air Base in the Irkutsk region, and damage to at least five aircraft, four of them strategic bombers. Even with limited information, military analysts said the operation ranks as a signature event on par with the sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva early in the war and the maritime drone assaults that forced the Russian Navy to largely abandon the home port of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea. 'This is a stunning success for Ukraine's special services,' said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in London. 'If even half the total claim of 41 aircraft damaged/destroyed is confirmed, it will have a significant impact on the capacity of the Russian Long Range Aviation force to keep up its regular large scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, whilst also maintaining their nuclear deterrence and signaling patrols against NATO and Japan,' he said in an email. Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and fellow at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based research group, said that 'the proliferation of drones, open-source sensors and digital command and control systems means that long-range strike is now a commodity available to almost every nation state, and nonstate actor, with a few million dollars and the desire to reach out and strike their adversary.' Mr. Zelensky, in comments on Monday at a NATO meeting of Baltic and Nordic countries, said the operation showed Russia that it is also subject to serious losses, and 'that is what will push it toward diplomacy.' However, Mr. Ryan and other analysts cautioned that despite the nature of the attacks, they are unlikely to alter the political calculus of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who remains bent on achieving his war aims. The operation is part of an evolving campaign Behind Ukraine's operation was a basic goal: Kill the archer instead of trying to stop the arrows. It is part of an ever-evolving campaign by Ukraine to play offense rather than defense, by targeting Russian missile platforms on land, air and sea. In December 2022, nine months into the war, Ukraine executed one of its first ambitious attacks on Russian territory, targeting two airfields hundreds of miles inside the country using long-range drones. As the drone strikes expanded over the years, Russia adapted, building protective structures around fuel depots at the bases, bringing in more air defense assets and routinely repositioning its fleet. Ukraine needed a new plan if it hoped to inflict serious damage. They came up with 'Operation Spider's Web,' which Ukrainian officials said was overseen personally by Mr. Zelensky and managed directly by the head of the S.B.U., Vasyl Malyuk. The idea was to bring small, first-person-view, or FPV, drones close enough to the airfields to render traditional air defenses systems useless. The Ukrainians on Monday offered an unusually detailed public account of the operation. Over the course of many months, they said, dozens of FPV drones were transported into Russia; the scale of the operation could not be independently verified. Mr. Zelensky claimed they set up a base of operations at a warehouse close to a regional headquarters of Russia's domestic intelligence agency, known as the F.S.B. Once the drones were smuggled into Russia, they were packed onto pallets inside wooden transport containers with remote-controlled lids and then loaded onto trucks, the S.B.U. statement said. There was no indication that the drivers of the trucks knew what they were hauling, Ukrainian officials said. Mr. Zelensky said that all of the Ukrainian agents involved in the operation had made it safely out of Russia before the operation commenced, a claim that could not be independently verified. The Russian government, in a statement on Sunday, said that some of those involved in the attack had been detained. Ukraine planted drones inside Russia One video verified by The Times shows a drone approaching Belaya air base before a strike. Other verified footage shows two drones launched from containers mounted on the back of a semi-truck less than four miles away. They fly in the direction of large smoke plumes now rising from the base. Footage recorded shortly afterward shows the same containers ablaze, their tops beside them on the ground. Ukrainian officials said in their account that the transport crates were rigged to self-destruct after the drones were released. Another video verified by the Times shows drones flying less than four miles from the Olenya air base. The man recording it suggests that the drones had been launched from a truck parked just down the road. The Times could not confirm that the drones in the various videos were part of the assault. In its assessment, Ukraine said the 41 planes accounted for 34 percent of the strategic cruise-missile carriers at air bases across three time zones. The Times was able to verify that four TU-95 bombers and one Antonov cargo plane were hit. Russian military bloggers claimed the Ukrainian damage estimates were inflated. One influential Russian military blogger, Rybar, run by Mikhail Zvinchuk, put the number of damaged Russian aircraft at 13, including up to 12 strategic bombers. Another one, Fighterbomber, believed to be run by Capt. Ilya Tumanov of the Russian Army, said in a post on Monday that only 'a handful' of strategic aircraft were hit, but even such a loss was 'huge for a country that doesn't make them.' Col. Markus Reisner, a historian and officer in the Austrian Armed Forces, said that the best Western estimates suggest that Russia had slightly over 60 active Tu-95s and around 20 Tu-160 bombers. 'Replacing losses will be very challenging,' he said. Ben Hodges, a retired general who commanded the U.S. Army Europe, said the available evidence suggests that the operation put a 'real dent' in Russia's ability to launch large salvos of cruise missiles. 'The surprise that they achieved will have a shock on the system as the Russians try to figure out how these trucks loaded with explosives got so deep inside of Russia,' he said. The attack raises new risks Mr. Zelensky said the attack was not only designed to undercut Russia's ability to bombard Ukrainian cities but to increase pressure on the Kremlin to accept an unconditional cease-fire. 'It was the Russians who chose to continue the war — even under conditions where the entire world is calling for an end to the killing,' he said in his nightly address to the nation. 'And pressure is truly needed — pressure on Russia that should bring it back to reality.' There was no indication that the attack had changed the Kremlin's belief that it holds an advantage over Ukraine, counting on the weakening resolve of Kyiv's allies and its ability to grind down vastly outnumbered Ukrainian forces. There was also the risk that Ukraine's allies would be rattled by the attack and the general pattern of escalation in recent weeks as Russia steps up its own bombardments. But Mr. Ryan said the strikes also show how Ukraine is evolving so that it is less reliant on U.S. intelligence in the event of 'shut offs' like earlier this year. The operation, he said, demonstrates 'how success in war is biased toward those who learn and adapt the quickest.'
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
5 ways Ukraine's audacious 'Spiderweb' drone attack marks a new threat for top militaries
Ukraine's latest attack on Russian airfields has written a new chapter for drone tactics. Operatives snuck the drones into Russia and remotely launched them near bases, Ukraine says. These tactics highlight vulnerabilities for the world's most advanced militaries. The new tactics deployed by Ukraine in striking a claimed 41 Russian warplanes have devastating implications — not only for Russia's air power but for all advanced militaries, defense experts told Business Insider. "This attack is a window to future war," James Patton Rogers, a drone expert and executive director of the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute, told BI. Ukraine has attacked Russia with drones many times before. But on Sunday, its Security Service, or SBU, targeted four Russian airfields simultaneously with a wildly creative gambit it dubbed "Operation Spiderweb." According to the SBU, operatives smuggled the military quadcopters into Russia, later packing them into wooden house-like structures. These were then mounted on trucks, which were driven close to the airfields, where the drones were launched, causing a claimed $7 billion in damage. The proximity and number of small attack drones appear to have given air defense crews little, if any, chance to respond. While details of the attack need to be independently confirmed, initial visual information suggests that this is "a stunning success for Ukraine's special services," said Justin Bronk, an influential air power expert at the Royal United Services Institute. Here's what it could mean for Russia and the Ukraine war — and the rest of the world. Ukraine's previous drone attacks have frequently been countered by Russia's advanced air defense systems, like its S-300 and S-400 missile launchers. But, it seems, these latest drones didn't need to run the S-400 gauntlet. Rather than flying larger, long-range drones through Russian airspace from Ukraine, the SBU said they trucked the containers out to the airfields, activating the smuggled drones after remotely retracting the roofs to release them. With a much-shortened and simplified journey to their target, the drones struck warplanes at the airfields of Belaya, Diaghilev, Olenya, and Ivanovo, per the SBU. Lithuania's former foreign minister, Gabrelius Landsbergis, said on Monday that the attack shows Ukraine's ability to innovate and surprise the world. "Its scale and ingenuity — carried out without visible Western intelligence or logistical support — suggests Ukraine is now less reliant on outside help," he wrote. (Ukraine's Western backers, like the US, have resisted providing the weaponry and intelligence Ukraine has sought for retaliation against Russian bases, from which it launches regular attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and defensive lines.) Powered largely by domestically-produced armaments, Ukraine once again innovated "while the world talks, hosts meetings, and forms yet another 'coalition of the willing,'" Landsbergis wrote. "Ukraine is preparing to fight on its own terms," he added. "If you ever wondered what strategic autonomy looks like — this might be it." Ukraine showed that its fleet of $150 million bombers on a runway can be made prey to the kind of cheap drones modified slightly from racing and wedding photos. Prior to these coordinated strikes, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia have reached as far as 1,100 miles from their shared border. That distance is dwarfed by the reach of Sunday's attack, where the farthest airfield, at Belaya in the eastern-central Irkutsk region, was more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine. Russia likely viewed bases far from Ukraine as being at less risk of attack. Bronk said that even if only half of the claimed 41 planes were damaged or destroyed, it would have a "significant impact" on Russia's ability to launch long-range cruise missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Bronk estimates that Russia had around 60 active Tu-95 "Bear" bombers and around 20 Tu-160 "Blackjack" bombers involved in this aerial campaign, and said replacing damaged planes will be a huge challenge, as production on both models has either slowed or halted completely in recent decades. Videos and images from the attack show that the planes were parked in the open air, outside of any shelter. This may have made them an easy target. Satellite images have suggested that this is a point of some anxiety for Russia, which appears to have tried to pile tires onto the wings of its bombers to try to trick visual guidance systems. An aircraft on the ground is highly vulnerable to attack and is wholly dependent on airborne aircraft and nearby air defenses. Russia is not the only country with this issue. While China reportedly has enough hardened air shelters to house the majority of its combat aircraft, the US has invested far less in this capability. Ukraine didn't detail how it successfully smuggled the drones past Russian authorities. But the fact it did so "highlights the vulnerability of Russian transport and logistics system," Patton Rogers told BI. "The question for Russia must be, how many more are lying in wait?" he said. Meanwhile, Russia has shown itself quick to learn throughout the war, which could worry the West. The attack is a "stark reminder" of a new phase in war, Karl Rosander, CEO and cofounder of Swedish defence tech startup Nordic Air Defence, said in emailed comments. "One where drones can be covertly deployed and lie dormant behind enemy lines, waiting to strike." It's "only a matter of time" before the tactic is taken up by Russia and other hostile state actors, he added. The implications of this are wide-ranging. An air base needs a combination of armored shelters for aircraft, electronic jammers to disrupt drone guidance systems, and enough missiles or guns to shoot them down. All are costs measured in billions of dollars — and Ukraine has just devised a new threat costing in the mere thousands. Patton Rogers questioned how vulnerable NATO air bases are to such attacks, while pointing out how the tactic could be adopted elsewhere. "Drones won't be confined to a set battlefield," he told BI. While long-range drones will continue to strike, weaponized short-range drones will be "hidden and waiting for launch" to attack deep inside adversary territory, he said. "The question is, are NATO allies ready for this new reality?" Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Inside Ukraine's audacious drone attack on Russian air bases
Ukraine's drone attack against Russian airfields was audacious and daring. But most of all, it was meticulously planned and flawlessly executed. Kyiv struck where it could make a difference, damaging or destroying military aircraft that Moscow has been using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians with near daily aerial attacks. The Ukrainian Security Service said 41 Russian aircraft were hit, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes, although it is unclear how many were taken completely out of action. Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said the attack was 'a stunning success for Ukraine's special services.' 'If even half the total claim of 41 aircraft damaged/destroyed is confirmed, it will have a significant impact on the capacity of the Russian Long Range Aviation force to keep up its regular large-scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, whilst also maintaining their nuclear deterrence and signaling patrols against NATO and Japan,' he wrote in a note. This is what we know about how the attack unfolded. The attacks targeted four airfields deep inside Russia, with the farthest one, the Belaya base in Irkutsk region, some 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) from Ukraine's border with Russia. The other targets included the Olenya base near Murmansk in the Arctic Circle, more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from Ukraine; the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, some 520 kilometers (320 miles) from Ukraine; and the Ivanovo air base, which is a base for Russian military transport aircraft, some 800 kilometers (500 miles) from the border. A visual shared by the SBU, Ukraine's security agency, also showed another base in the eastern Amur region as a target. It is not clear whether an attack on this base failed or was aborted. It's these huge distances from the border with Ukraine that likely made Russia complacent about protecting the sites. Its most prized aircraft at the Belaya base were regularly parked in plain sight in the airfield, clearly visible in publicly available satellite images – including on Google Maps. Moscow likely believed the distance itself was enough to keep the aircraft safe from Ukrainian attacks. Russia maintains air superiority over Ukraine and while Kyiv's allies have supplied Ukraine with some long-range missile systems, including US-made ATACMS and British-French Storm Shadows, neither has the range to strike this deep inside Russia. Ukraine has been using drones against targets inside Russia, including in Moscow, but the low speed at which they travel makes them relatively easy for Russian air defenses to strike them. This is where the audacity of the attack really played out: rather than trying to fly the drones all the way from the border, Ukraine managed to smuggle them right next to the sites it wanted to target and launched them from there. Russia's radar and air defenses at these bases were not prepared for such a low-altitude and sudden attack. The only effective way to stop an attack like this is with heavy machine guns. Russia has been using these against Ukrainian sea drones in the Black Sea. But these were either not available or not deployed quickly enough at the air bases targeted by Ukraine on Sunday – most likely because Russia simply didn't foresee this type of attack. CNN was able to verify and geolocated photos and videos from the scenes, confirming their locations near the bases. Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement that the attacks – which it called 'terror attacks' were launched from the vicinity of the airfields. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones were used in the operation. According to the SBU, the drones were smuggled into Russia by its operatives. At some point, likely while already in Russia, the drones were then hidden inside mobile wooden sheds. Photos obtained by CNN show the drones tucked just under the sheds' metal roofs, slotted in insulation cavities. These wooden cabins were then placed on trucks and driven to locations near the bases. Ukraine did not disclose how exactly it managed to get the vehicles into the vicinity of high-profile military targets without detection, but reports in Russian media suggested it was relatively simple. Baza and Astra, two Russian Telegram channels, both reported that the trucks were bought by a Ukrainian man who lived in Russia who then simply paid a quartet of drivers to get them where he needed them. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian authorities commented on these reports, but the Russian state news agency RIA reported that authorities in the Irkutsk region were searching for a man who was suspected of being involved in the attack. His name matched the name reported by Baza and Astra. The Ukrainian Security Service said the operatives involved in the operation were safely back in Ukraine by the time the attacks started. Zelensky said they worked across multiple Russian regions spanning three time zones. A senior source with Ukraine's drone development program told CNN the pilots who flew the drones were probably nowhere near the locations from which they were launched. 'They would have likely setup an internet hub allowing the pilots to (control them) remotely, each rapidly deploying each FPV (first person view drones), hitting each target one by one.' The source said the communication hub could be 'a simple Russian cell phone' which is harder to track than other systems, such as Starlink that is used widely in Ukraine. A source briefed on the matter confirmed the attack was carried out via Russian telecommunications networks. Once the trucks were in place and the drones ready to go, the cabin roofs opened and the drones flew towards their targets. A video of the attack in Russia's southeastern Irkutsk region that was shared on social media and verified and geolocated by CNN shows two drones flying out of a truck. They are seen heading towards the Belaya air base in the distance, where thick dark smoke is already billowing from a previous strike. Another video from the same location shows the truck used to transport the drones on fire after what appears to be an explosion designed to self-destruct the truck. Zelensky said on Sunday that the attack was in the making for one year, six months and nine days, and praised the security services for a 'brilliant' operation. Russian officials have downplayed the attack, saying strikes were repelled in the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions but that 'several pieces of aircraft' caught fire after attacks in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions. It added that the fires had since been extinguished. It said there were no casualties. But while Russian authorities tried to downplay the attack, several high-profile Russian military bloggers have been vocal in their criticism. Rybar, a high-profile Russian military blog, said the attack caused a 'tragic loss for the entire Russian air fleet' and was a result of 'criminal negligence.' The SBU said the strikes caused an estimated $7 billion in damages and hit 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers at its main air bases – a claim CNN cannot independently verify. Ukraine said it destroyed several TU-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and one of Russia's few remaining A-50 surveillance planes. A source briefed on the matter said 27 Tu-95, four Tu-160, two Tu-22M3 and 'probably' an A-50 were hit. The Tu-22M3 is Russia's long-range missile strike platform that can perform stand-off attacks, launching missiles from Russian airspace well behind the front lines to stay out of range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire. Russia had 55 Tu-22M3 jets and 57 Tu-95s in its fleet at the beginning of the year, according to the 'Military Balance 2025' report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. The Tu-95 joined the Soviet Union air force in the 1950s, and Russia has modified them to launch cruise missiles like the Tu-22. Bronk, the RUSI expert, said that replacing some of these aircraft would be very difficult for Russia because they have not been produced for decades. CNN's Natasha Bertrand contributed reporting.
Business Insider
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Business Insider
5 ways Ukraine's audacious 'Spiderweb' drone attack marks a new threat for top militaries
The new tactics deployed by Ukraine in striking a claimed 41 Russian warplanes have devastating implications — not only for Russia's air power but for all advanced militaries, defense experts told Business Insider. "This attack is a window to future war," James Patton Rogers, a drone expert and executive director of the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute, told BI. Ukraine has attacked Russia with drones many times before. But on Sunday, its Security Service, or SBU, targeted four Russian airfields simultaneously with a wildly creative gambit it dubbed "Operation Spiderweb." According to the SBU, operatives smuggled the military quadcopters into Russia, later packing them into wooden house-like structures. These were then mounted on trucks, which were driven close to the airfields, where the drones were launched, causing a claimed $7 billion in damage. The proximity and number of small attack drones appear to have given air defense crews little, if any, chance to respond. While details of the attack need to be independently confirmed, initial visual information suggests that this is "a stunning success for Ukraine's special services," said Justin Bronk, an influential air power expert at the Royal United Services Institute. Here's what it could mean for Russia and the Ukraine war — and the rest of the world. Limiting conventional air defences Ukraine's previous drone attacks have frequently been countered by Russia's advanced air defense systems, like its S-300 and S-400 missile launchers. But, it seems, these latest drones didn't need to run the S-400 gauntlet. Rather than flying larger, long-range drones through Russian airspace from Ukraine, the SBU said they trucked the containers out to the airfields, activating the smuggled drones after remotely retracting the roofs to release them. With a much-shortened and simplified journey to their target, the drones struck warplanes at the airfields of Belaya, Diaghilev, Olenya, and Ivanovo, per the SBU. A powerful statement of Ukraine going it alone Lithuania's former foreign minister, Gabrelius Landsbergis, said on Monday that the attack shows Ukraine's ability to innovate and surprise the world. "Its scale and ingenuity — carried out without visible Western intelligence or logistical support — suggests Ukraine is now less reliant on outside help," he wrote. (Ukraine's Western backers, like the US, have resisted providing the weaponry and intelligence Ukraine has sought for retaliation against Russian bases, from which it launches regular attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and defensive lines.) Powered largely by domestically-produced armaments, Ukraine once again innovated "while the world talks, hosts meetings, and forms yet another 'coalition of the willing,'" Landsbergis wrote. "Ukraine is preparing to fight on its own terms," he added. "If you ever wondered what strategic autonomy looks like — this might be it." Ukraine showed that its fleet of $150 million bombers on a runway can be made prey to the kind of cheap drones modified slightly from racing and wedding photos. It enables Ukraine to hit deeper into Russia Prior to these coordinated strikes, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia have reached as far as 1,100 miles from their shared border. That distance is dwarfed by the reach of Sunday's attack, where the farthest airfield, at Belaya in the eastern-central Irkutsk region, was more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine. Russia likely viewed bases far from Ukraine as being at less risk of attack. Bronk said that even if only half of the claimed 41 planes were damaged or destroyed, it would have a "significant impact" on Russia's ability to launch long-range cruise missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Bronk estimates that Russia had around 60 active Tu-95 "Bear" bombers and around 20 Tu-160 "Blackjack" bombers involved in this aerial campaign, and said replacing damaged planes will be a huge challenge, as production on both models has either slowed or halted completely in recent decades. No hard shelter for planes Videos and images from the attack show that the planes were parked in the open air, outside of any shelter. This may have made them an easy target. Satellite images have suggested that this is a point of some anxiety for Russia, which appears to have tried to pile tires onto the wings of its bombers to try to trick visual guidance systems. An aircraft on the ground is highly vulnerable to attack and is wholly dependent on airborne aircraft and nearby air defenses. Russia is not the only country with this issue. While China reportedly has enough hardened air shelters to house the majority of its combat aircraft, the US has invested far less in this capability. 'Sleeper' drones Ukraine didn't detail how it successfully smuggled the drones past Russian authorities. But the fact it did so "highlights the vulnerability of Russian transport and logistics system," Patton Rogers told BI. "The question for Russia must be, how many more are lying in wait?" he said. Meanwhile, Russia has shown itself quick to learn throughout the war, which could worry the West. The attack is a "stark reminder" of a new phase in war, Karl Rosander, CEO and cofounder of Swedish defence tech startup Nordic Air Defence, said in emailed comments. "One where drones can be covertly deployed and lie dormant behind enemy lines, waiting to strike." It's "only a matter of time" before the tactic is taken up by Russia and other hostile state actors, he added. The implications of this are wide-ranging. An air base needs a combination of armored shelters for aircraft, electronic jammers to disrupt drone guidance systems, and enough missiles or guns to shoot them down. All are costs measured in billions of dollars — and Ukraine has just devised a new threat costing in the mere thousands. Patton Rogers questioned how vulnerable NATO air bases are to such attacks, while pointing out how the tactic could be adopted elsewhere. "Drones won't be confined to a set battlefield," he told BI. While long-range drones will continue to strike, weaponized short-range drones will be "hidden and waiting for launch" to attack deep inside adversary territory, he said. "The question is, are NATO allies ready for this new reality?"
CNN
02-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Inside Ukraine's audacious drone attack on Russian air bases
Ukraine's drone attack against Russian airfields was audacious and daring. But most of all, it was meticulously planned and flawlessly executed. Kyiv struck where it could make a difference, damaging or destroying military aircraft that Moscow has been using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians with near daily aerial attacks. The Ukrainian Security Service said 41 Russian aircraft were hit, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes, although it is unclear how many were taken completely out of action. Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said the attack was 'a stunning success for Ukraine's special services.' 'If even half the total claim of 41 aircraft damaged/destroyed is confirmed, it will have a significant impact on the capacity of the Russian Long Range Aviation force to keep up its regular large-scale cruise missile salvos against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, whilst also maintaining their nuclear deterrence and signaling patrols against NATO and Japan,' he wrote in a note. This is what we know about how the attack unfolded. The attacks targeted four airfields deep inside Russia, with the farthest one, the Belaya base in Irkutsk region, some 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) from Ukraine's border with Russia. The other targets included the Olenya base near Murmansk in the Arctic Circle, more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from Ukraine; the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, some 520 kilometers (320 miles) from Ukraine; and the Ivanovo air base, which is a base for Russian military transport aircraft, some 800 kilometers (500 miles) from the border. A visual shared by the SBU, Ukraine's security agency, also showed another base in the eastern Amur region as a target. It is not clear whether an attack on this base failed or was aborted. It's these huge distances from the border with Ukraine that likely made Russia complacent about protecting the sites. Its most prized aircraft at the Belaya base were regularly parked in plain sight in the airfield, clearly visible in publicly available satellite images – including on Google Maps. Moscow likely believed the distance itself was enough to keep the aircraft safe from Ukrainian attacks. Russia maintains air superiority over Ukraine and while Kyiv's allies have supplied Ukraine with some long-range missile systems, including US-made ATACMS and British-French Storm Shadows, neither has the range to strike this deep inside Russia. Ukraine has been using drones against targets inside Russia, including in Moscow, but the low speed at which they travel makes them relatively easy for Russian air defenses to strike them. This is where the audacity of the attack really played out: rather than trying to fly the drones all the way from the border, Ukraine managed to smuggle them right next to the sites it wanted to target and launched them from there. Russia's radar and air defenses at these bases were not prepared for such a low-altitude and sudden attack. The only effective way to stop an attack like this is with heavy machine guns. Russia has been using these against Ukrainian sea drones in the Black Sea. But these were either not available or not deployed quickly enough at the air bases targeted by Ukraine on Sunday – most likely because Russia simply didn't foresee this type of attack. CNN was able to verify and geolocated photos and videos from the scenes, confirming their locations near the bases. Russia's Defense Ministry confirmed in a statement that the attacks – which it called 'terror attacks' were launched from the vicinity of the airfields. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones were used in the operation. According to the SBU, the drones were smuggled into Russia by its operatives. At some point, likely while already in Russia, the drones were then hidden inside mobile wooden sheds. Photos obtained by CNN show the drones tucked just under the sheds' metal roofs, slotted in insulation cavities. These wooden cabins were then placed on trucks and driven to locations near the bases. Ukraine did not disclose how exactly it managed to get the vehicles into the vicinity of high-profile military targets without detection, but reports in Russian media suggested it was relatively simple. Baza and Astra, two Russian Telegram channels, both reported that the trucks were bought by a Ukrainian man who lived in Russia who then simply paid a quartet of drivers to get them where he needed them. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian authorities commented on these reports, but the Russian state news agency RIA reported that authorities in the Irkutsk region were searching for a man who was suspected of being involved in the attack. His name matched the name reported by Baza and Astra. The Ukrainian Security Service said the operatives involved in the operation were safely back in Ukraine by the time the attacks started. Zelensky said they worked across multiple Russian regions spanning three time zones. A senior source with Ukraine's drone development program told CNN the pilots who flew the drones were probably nowhere near the locations from which they were launched. 'They would have likely setup an internet hub allowing the pilots to (control them) remotely, each rapidly deploying each FPV (first person view drones), hitting each target one by one.' The source said the communication hub could be 'a simple Russian cell phone' which is harder to track than other systems, such as Starlink that is used widely in Ukraine. A source briefed on the matter confirmed the attack was carried out via Russian telecommunications networks. Once the trucks were in place and the drones ready to go, the cabin roofs opened and the drones flew towards their targets. A video of the attack in Russia's southeastern Irkutsk region that was shared on social media and verified and geolocated by CNN shows two drones flying out of a truck. They are seen heading towards the Belaya air base in the distance, where thick dark smoke is already billowing from a previous strike. Another video from the same location shows the truck used to transport the drones on fire after what appears to be an explosion designed to self-destruct the truck. Zelensky said on Sunday that the attack was in the making for one year, six months and nine days, and praised the security services for a 'brilliant' operation. Russian officials have downplayed the attack, saying strikes were repelled in the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions but that 'several pieces of aircraft' caught fire after attacks in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions. It added that the fires had since been extinguished. It said there were no casualties. But while Russian authorities tried to downplay the attack, several high-profile Russian military bloggers have been vocal in their criticism. Rybar, a high-profile Russian military blog, said the attack caused a 'tragic loss for the entire Russian air fleet' and was a result of 'criminal negligence.' The SBU said the strikes caused an estimated $7 billion in damages and hit 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers at its main air bases – a claim CNN cannot independently verify. Ukraine said it destroyed several TU-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and one of Russia's few remaining A-50 surveillance planes. A source briefed on the matter said 27 Tu-95, four Tu-160, two Tu-22M3 and 'probably' an A-50 were hit. The Tu-22M3 is Russia's long-range missile strike platform that can perform stand-off attacks, launching missiles from Russian airspace well behind the front lines to stay out of range of Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire. Russia had 55 Tu-22M3 jets and 57 Tu-95s in its fleet at the beginning of the year, according to the 'Military Balance 2025' report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. The Tu-95 joined the Soviet Union air force in the 1950s, and Russia has modified them to launch cruise missiles like the Tu-22. Bronk, the RUSI expert, said that replacing some of these aircraft would be very difficult for Russia because they have not been produced for decades. CNN's Natasha Bertrand contributed reporting.
