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ASEAN is balancing great powers as it moves forward, steadily and with purpose
ASEAN is balancing great powers as it moves forward, steadily and with purpose

First Post

time11 hours ago

  • Business
  • First Post

ASEAN is balancing great powers as it moves forward, steadily and with purpose

The recent Kuala Lumpur summit shows that ASEAN is not adrift. It is weathering the currents of change with a steady hand, attempting to chart a course that prioritises peace, development, and cooperation read more ASEAN's vision of "One Vision, One Identity, One Community" has long provided an ideational anchor, but 2025 is emerging as a year that will test the practical meaning of that mantra. Representational image: Reuters The 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur convened against a backdrop of intensifying geopolitical tensions, economic shocks, and internal crises that threaten the cohesiveness and future direction of the bloc. ASEAN's vision of 'One Vision, One Identity, One Community' has long provided an ideational anchor, but 2025 is emerging as a year that will test the practical meaning of that mantra. The biannual summit is being hosted by Malaysia after a decade. The mid-year summit usually focuses on internal ASEAN matters, such as economic integration, political-security cooperation, and socio-cultural development, while the end-of-year summit expands discussions to include its dialogue partners, namely, China, Japan, South Korea, India, and the United States. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Strategic Fragility The agenda focused on maritime security and economic resilience, while Myanmar revealed the strategic fragility that ASEAN currently faces. As the South China Sea turns into a geopolitical tinderbox, recent maritime collisions and a Chinese water cannon assault on Philippine vessels illustrate Beijing's continued assertiveness in the region. In parallel, the US is pushing back with a forward-deployed missile system, NMESIS, on the northern Philippine island of Batan, capable of targeting Chinese naval assets within 115 miles. Concurrently, the annual KAMANDAG island defence exercises between the US Marine Corps and counterparts from the Philippines, Japan and the Republic of Korea are underway. This militarisation, while framed as deterrence, draws ASEAN deeper into a potential great-power confrontation. For member states like Vietnam and the Philippines, security cooperation with the U.S. is seen as increasingly essential. Others, like Cambodia and Laos, which lean toward Beijing, remain uneasy about any unified ASEAN response to Chinese actions. Further, the long-delayed Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, under discussion, remains a hollow promise. The Tariff Trap Compounding the security problem is Trump's fresh wave of protectionist policies. US tariffs targeting ASEAN exports are as high as 49 per cent imposed on Cambodia and 10 per cent on Singapore, affecting primarily the electronics, textiles, and agriculture sectors. These moves threaten to dismantle years of supply chain integration and jeopardise the export-led growth models of several ASEAN states. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasised the importance of regional unity in addressing these economic challenges. ASEAN has formed a task force to coordinate a common stance and is seeking a meeting with US President Donald Trump to negotiate the tariffs. Meanwhile, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are pursuing bilateral negotiations, while others are exploring trade redirection toward China, India, and the EU. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Rather than frame these developments solely as challenges, ASEAN leaders are approaching them as opportunities to build economic resilience. Malaysia's leadership has emphasised expanding partnerships through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), deepening ASEAN-EU trade, and supporting regional supply chain initiatives. Additionally, the summit saw the launch of a new 20-year vision document and a dedicated forum to engage in broader cooperation with China and the Gulf Cooperation Council. While Malaysia, as the 2025 Chair, has advocated for a combined response, internal fragmentation impedes joint action. Myanmar's Crisis and ASEAN's Inertia Nowhere is ASEAN's indecision more glaring than in its Myanmar policy. Despite calls for direct negotiations between the junta and opposition forces, as well as proposals for a permanent ASEAN envoy, the bloc remains largely paralysed. The post-coup conflict has escalated into a full-scale civil war, with resistance groups making gains against a beleaguered military regime. Humanitarian fallout, including school bombings, mass displacement, and the Rohingya refugee crisis, continues to mount. More than 400 Rohingya refugees perished at sea last week, and over 3.5 million remain displaced. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Thailand's call for 'constructive engagement' and Malaysia's insistence on the extension of the post-earthquake ceasefire, which is set to expire at the end of May, reflect competing national preferences that dilute collective leverage. A proposal for appointing a permanent ASEAN envoy to facilitate dialogue is under discussion. Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan has indicated plans to visit Myanmar next month to further these initiatives. Europe's Indo-Pacific Overture Into this volatile environment steps French President Emmanuel Macron, whose diplomatic tour of Southeast Asia reflected a broader European interest in anchoring engagement beyond aid or arms sales. His stop at Hanoi saw 14 agreements signed across sectors, reinforcing Vietnam as a pivot state in both regional stability and Franco-Asian relations. With upcoming visits to Indonesia and Singapore and a keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Macron's strategy is clear: offer France as another pole in an increasingly bipolar Indo-Pacific. But it is not alone. Germany recently signed a formal defence agreement with the Philippines, which is also negotiating several contracts with the visiting forces of other partners, such as Canada. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD It is uncertain if ASEAN can translate these overtures into sustainable multilateral partnerships, especially given its existing dependence on China and the US. Whether it continues as a community of convenience or evolves into a community of shared responsibility will shape not just Southeast Asia's future but also the broader Indo-Pacific order. While significant challenges remain, the Kuala Lumpur summit shows that ASEAN is not adrift. It is weathering the currents of change with a steady hand, attempting to chart a course that prioritises peace, development, and cooperation. In doing so, ASEAN may not always move fast, but it continues to move forward. The author is a research analyst, Indo-Pacific Studies Programme. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.

Marines, Army deploying missile systems to Luzon Strait
Marines, Army deploying missile systems to Luzon Strait

Yahoo

time6 days ago

  • General
  • Yahoo

Marines, Army deploying missile systems to Luzon Strait

Marine Corps and Army missile systems are set to deploy to a key chokepoint in the Philippine Island chains for anti-ship drills during the military exercise known as KAMANDAG. The unmanned, anti-ship Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or NMESIS, and the Army's High Mobility Rocket Artillery System will feature prominently in the exercise with their emplacement between Luzon and Taiwan, U.S. Naval Institute reported. The 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment's NMESIS is heading to Batanes, the northernmost portion of Philippine territory. The platform first reached the island of Basco and Batan for Balikatan 2025, a maritime security exercise. This unit will be the next to field the ship-killing missile system That was the first time the Marines deployed the anti-ship missile to the Luzon Strait. 'The insertion of the NMESIS on Batan during Exercise Balikatan 25's MKTSO was an achievement of a major milestone not just for 3rd MLR, but for the entire U.S. Marine Corps enterprise, signifying advancements in the service's equipment fielding to employment timelines,' said Col. John G. Lehane, commanding officer of the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment. 'In a matter of months, the NMESIS went from an experimental asset undergoing the rigorous initial operational testing and evaluation spearheaded by Marine Corps Systems Command and the program office, to a fully fielded weapon system capable of neutralizing the threat of adversarial vessels in contested littoral zones.' Marine Rotational Force-Darwin will conduct corps-level command and control. The 3rd MLR will deploy their missile battery to Batanes using KC-130J transport aircraft, USNI reported. 'KAMANDAG 9 is a clear demonstration of the strength of the U.S.-Philippine alliance and our ironclad commitment to regional security and combined readiness,' said Col. Jason C. Armas, commanding officer of the MRF-D 25.3 MAGTF. 'Training shoulder to shoulder with our Philippine Marine Corps partners isn't just about building interoperability — it's about forging trust in the crucible of shared hardship and preparing together to respond with speed and precision to any crisis, anywhere, anytime.' The exercise is scheduled to run from May 26 to June 6 and will take place across the Philippine archipelago, including Luzon, Batanes, Tawi-Tawi and Palawan, according to a release. Training events include maritime key terrain security operations, defensive counter-landing live-fire drills, littoral maneuver, amphibious operations and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, according to the release. Japanese and Korean forces are scheduled to conduct amphibious drills in the province of Palawan, which faces the South China Sea, a key area of control for any potential conflict with Beijing. The Army HIMARs will be transported by the Armed Forces of the Philippines alongside the Marine anti-ship systems. The service deployed the launchers during Balikatan 2024. The missile units will rehearse maritime strikes in the Luzon Strait. Those systems can cover the 250-kilometer-wide strait through fires and sensors, USNI reported. The 3rd MLR used a network of ground-based sensors and drones across Batanes and the Babuyan Islands during previous exercises. Those operations included the Philippine territory of Mavulis, less than 90 miles from Taiwan.

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