Latest news with #KSPI
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amid Macro Challenges
Revenue Growth: 21% year-on-year increase. Net Income Growth: 16% year-on-year increase. Payments Revenue Growth: 16% year-on-year increase. Marketplace Revenue Growth: 33% year-on-year increase. Fintech Revenue Growth: 18% year-on-year increase. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Growth: 20% year-on-year increase. Fintech Origination Volume Growth: 17% year-on-year increase. e-Grocery GMV Growth: 64% year-on-year increase. e-Grocery Purchases Growth: 66% year-on-year increase. Eurobond Issuance: EUR650 million at 6.250% due in 2030. Interest Rate on New Deposits: Up to 18% for three-month maturity. Cost of Risk: Increased to 0.6% from 0.5% due to macro provisioning. Take Rate for Payments: 1.13%. Take Rate for e-Commerce: 12.5%. Take Rate for m-Commerce: Increased by 20 bps. Kaspi Travel GMV Growth: 22% year-on-year increase. Kaspi Travel Take Rate: Increased to 5.3% from 4.5%. Guidance for GMV Growth: Adjusted to 15% to 20% from 25% to 30%. Impact of Smartphone Registration: Temporary impact on demand, reducing GMV growth by 7 percentage points. Loan-to-Deposit Ratio: High, with a focus on growing the deposit base. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Signs with KSPI. Release Date: May 12, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. JSC (NASDAQ:KSPI) reported strong revenue growth of 21% and net income growth of 16% year-over-year for the first quarter of 2025. The company's e-grocery business is expanding rapidly, with GMV up 64% and purchases up 66% year-over-year. JSC (NASDAQ:KSPI) successfully raised EUR 650 million through its first Eurobond issuance, strengthening its financial position. The company launched new high-interest deposit products, attracting 84,000 consumers and KZT 379 billion in deposits. JSC (NASDAQ:KSPI) is planning international expansion, including a strategic investment in Turkey with the acquisition of Rabobank. The introduction of smartphone registration requirements in Kazakhstan negatively impacted demand, affecting GMV growth. High interest rates in Kazakhstan are a significant drag on earnings, increasing funding costs for the company. The Kazakh government is expected to introduce a 10% tax on revenue from investments, impacting net income. Macro uncertainty, including lower oil prices and currency volatility, could affect high-ticket discretionary transactions. The company's guidance for GMV growth was revised down to 15%-20% from the previous 25%-30% due to smartphone registration and macroeconomic factors. Q: Can you expand on the macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan and its impact on your operations? Also, how do the recent boycotts in Turkey affect your short-term outlook there? A: The macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan is primarily driven by lower oil prices, which can slow GDP growth, and currency volatility due to fluctuating commodity prices. This can lead to inflation and higher interest rates, impacting earnings. However, payment trends remain resilient. In Turkey, the boycotts have not changed our long-term outlook. Our focus remains on delivering high-quality products and services. (David Ferguson, Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations; Mikhail Lomtadze, CEO) Q: Could you elaborate on the smartphone registration issue in Kazakhstan and its impact on your numbers? A: The new regulation requires smartphones to be registered with authorities, leading to increased prices and a temporary drop in demand. This affected our numbers in March and will likely continue into Q2. However, we expect demand to normalize in the second half of the year. The normalized e-commerce growth rate, excluding this impact, would be around 30%. (David Ferguson, Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations) Q: How does the Rabobank acquisition fit into your strategy in Turkey, and what are your plans for the fintech platform there? A: We are in the process of obtaining approval for the Rabobank acquisition, which will provide us with a banking license to launch fintech products in Turkey. We see significant opportunities in digital and online services and plan to introduce fintech products once we have regulatory approval. (Mikhail Lomtadze, CEO) Q: Can you discuss the impact of higher deposit rates on your funding costs and how you plan to manage this? A: We expect an increase in funding costs by 100 to 150 basis points this year due to higher deposit rates. Our strategy is to offer attractive deposit products to consumers, which will drive more transactions and provide funding for lending. This approach aligns with our long-term strategy of leveraging deposits to enhance our marketplace. (David Ferguson, Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations) Q: What is the outlook for your payment platform, and how are macro factors affecting it? A: Our payment platform continues to grow, driven by cashless transactions and innovations like B2B payments. While macro factors like higher interest rates pose challenges, our payment business remains robust, with ongoing innovations supporting growth. We expect gradual take rate attrition as lower take rate services grow faster. (Mikhail Lomtadze, CEO; David Ferguson, Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations) For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company (KSPI) on Substack by Antoni Nabzdyk. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company (KSPI)'s share was trading at $90.86 as of May 7th. KSPI's trailing P/E was 8.69 according to Yahoo Finance. A businesswoman using her mobile device to shop on a ecommerce platform. (KSPI) is one of the most fascinating and underappreciated fintech stories in the global market today, offering a compelling case as a dominant super app in Kazakhstan. With an ecosystem that includes marketplace commerce, digital payments, lending, deposits, travel bookings, postomat delivery, and even access to government services—all within a single mobile app—Kaspi has embedded itself deeply into the daily lives of its users. Its mobile-first strategy, eschewing desktop development entirely, enables it to remain agile and rapidly deploy updates, leveraging end-to-end automation and sophisticated testing infrastructure. This focused mobile experience is central to its sticky user engagement and continued upselling opportunities, similar to how Apple retains its customers through ecosystem lock-in. The app serves both consumers and merchants through differentiated offerings and captures vast volumes of user data, which power AI-driven personalization features akin to Amazon's recommendation engine or Duolingo's user engagement experiments. Kaspi's Payments and Marketplace segments generate the highest profit margins, while the E-grocery segment is a lower-margin initiative but strategically valuable in expanding its ecosystem. Its investment into free delivery via a national network of postomats has significantly increased app usage and customer satisfaction, proving the company's strategic foresight. Financially, Kaspi is extremely sound, with a healthy balance sheet, prudent debt management, and strong profitability metrics. Its gross, operating, and profit margins are enviable and consistently improving, showcasing operational excellence and scalability. Compared to regional and global peers, Kaspi stands out with superior efficiency metrics, which should not be overlooked by investors. The company's dominant position in Kazakhstan gives it monopoly-like market power, particularly in the fintech and e-commerce verticals. With high monthly active users and virtually unmatched customer loyalty, it would be difficult for new entrants—even global players like Amazon—to make significant inroads without a disruptive strategy. Even if Kaspi were to lose market share in one vertical, its multi-pronged platform ensures resiliency through diversification, giving it a clear structural advantage in a relatively insulated market. That said, investors must consider the inherent risks of investing in emerging markets. Kaspi's filings explicitly mention geopolitical risks, terrorism, natural disasters, and other regional instabilities as material risks to operations. Kazakhstan's proximity to Russia and lack of NATO protection could present black swan geopolitical risks, although none are imminent today. Valuation scenarios further support Kaspi as a potentially undervalued growth asset. Assuming no revenue growth, the intrinsic value still sits significantly above current market prices. Modest revenue growth of 4% places the fair value around KZT 237,38, while more optimistic assumptions (15% revenue CAGR) suggest valuations north of KZT 602,05. Even conservative models like the Benjamin Graham approach imply a fair valuation between KZT 314,18 and 546,13 reinforcing the asymmetric risk/reward setup. stands out as a financially strong and highly profitable company operating within a rapidly expanding digital economy. Despite its impressive track record and ongoing growth, investors must weigh geopolitical concerns—particularly Kazakhstan's proximity to Russia and its reliance on Russian energy—when evaluating the opportunity. Although Kazakhstan is not a NATO member and maintains complex historical ties with Russia, it remains an independent nation with its own governance. While the geopolitical context raises valid concerns, strong fundamentals and growth potential continue to make it an attractive opportunity for investors who are comfortable navigating the risks inherent in emerging markets. Joint Stock Company (KSPI) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held KSPI at the end of the fourth quarter which was 26 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of KSPI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than KSPI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company (KSPI) on Substack by Easy Trader. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company (KSPI)'s share was trading at $94.54 as of April 2nd. KSPI's trailing P/E was 8.82 according to Yahoo Finance. People using the Cash App paying for goods and services, highlighting the impact the of the company's payment tools. has emerged as Kazakhstan's dominant fintech powerhouse, integrating digital payments, e-commerce, and financial services into a single super app. With $5.3 billion in revenue in 2024—growing 28% year-over-year—and a net margin of 42%, the company remains highly profitable and undervalued at a $20 billion market cap. Kaspi's dual-platform model, consisting of the Super App for consumers and the Kaspi Pay Super App for merchants, creates a seamless financial ecosystem embedded into Kazakhstan's daily economic activity. Its payments segment processes billions in transactions, its marketplace is the fastest-growing revenue driver, and its fintech arm leads consumer lending, making it an indispensable part of the country's financial infrastructure. Kaspi's journey began when Vyacheslav Kim transitioned his electronics retail business into banking with the acquisition of Kaspiskiy Bank in 2002. The company's transformation accelerated under CEO Mikhail Lomtadze, brought in by Baring Vostok in 2007. Kaspi shifted from traditional banking to a tech-driven platform, launching digital payments in 2012, an e-commerce marketplace in 2014, and a mobile super app in 2017. This evolution fueled rapid expansion, leading to its London IPO in 2020 and subsequent Nasdaq listing in 2024, increasing its visibility among global investors. Financially, Kaspi continues to deliver outstanding performance. In 2024, it processed $166 billion in transactions—seven times its 2019 volume—and returned $750 million to shareholders through dividends, demonstrating strong cash flow generation. With operating costs below 10% of revenue, Kaspi operates far more efficiently than global fintech peers. While dominating the Kazakhstani market, the company is actively expanding into new territories. Its planned acquisition of Uzbekistan's Humo, a state-backed payment system with 10 million users, signals its intent to replicate success beyond Kazakhstan. The recent purchase of Turkey's Hepsiburada positions Kaspi in a $172 billion retail market, four times larger than Kazakhstan's. Partnerships with Alipay+ and potential multi-language support further enhance cross-border expansion potential. However, Kaspi faces challenges. In September 2024, short-seller Culper Research accused the company of misleading investors about its Russian ties, triggering a 20% stock drop. Although Kazakhstan's regulator dismissed the claims, geopolitical uncertainty lingers. Market saturation is another concern, with rising loan rates and competition from local rivals like ForteBank. Additionally, Kazakhstan's economy remains closely linked to Russia, introducing macroeconomic risks. Despite these headwinds, Kaspi's brand loyalty, technological edge, and entrenched market position create formidable barriers to competition. The company's innovation has earned it two Harvard Business School case studies, emphasizing its trust-building efforts after a 2014 bank run. Its asset-light model, driven by a 1,200-person tech team, enables exceptional cash generation without the burden of physical banking infrastructure. As the first Kazakhstani company to list on Nasdaq, Kaspi stands as a pioneer in the global fintech space. A discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation suggests Kaspi is deeply undervalued. With projected 2024 free cash flow (FCF) of $2.05 billion, growing at 20% annually for five years, Kaspi is on track to generate $5.35 billion in FCF by 2029. Applying a conservative 3% terminal growth rate and discounting at 12% to account for emerging market risks, Kaspi's enterprise value reaches $48 billion. Adding its $1.2 billion in cash and negligible debt results in an equity value of $49.2 billion, or $246 per share—more than double its current price of around $100. A peer comparison further supports this undervaluation. Kaspi trades at just 8.5x 2024 earnings, significantly lower than fintech peers like PayPal (18x), MercadoLibre (57x), and Sea Limited (114x). Adjusting for growth, Kaspi's PEG ratio is just 0.34, implying a fair value range of $215 to $535 per share based on fintech industry multiples. Despite its stellar financials, the market discounts Kaspi due to geopolitical risks, liquidity concerns following its U.S. listing, and its 6% dividend yield, which some perceive as a signal of maturity rather than high growth. However, MercadoLibre once faced similar skepticism before its stock was rerated as execution proved successful. If Kaspi's international expansion, particularly its Hepsiburada acquisition, gains traction, its valuation gap could narrow significantly. Even a modest rerating to 40x FCF—similar to MercadoLibre—would imply an $86 billion valuation, or $430 per share. Kaspi presents a compelling investment opportunity. With strong growth, superior margins, and substantial free cash flow generation, the stock remains deeply undervalued despite its industry-leading position. For investors willing to look past short-term geopolitical concerns, Kaspi offers the rare chance to buy a high-quality, high-growth fintech at a fraction of its intrinsic value. If sentiment shifts and its expansion strategy succeeds, the stock could more than double, making it one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the fintech sector today. Joint Stock Company (KSPI) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held KSPI at the end of the fourth quarter which was 26 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of KSPI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than KSPI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Top Analysts Eye 30% Upside for Dividend Happy Tech Stock Kaspi.kz (KSPI)
Investors are hungry for the growth that top tech and e-commerce stocks offer, but many of these stocks trade at impractically high valuations, and few offer dividends. This makes (KSPI) a rarity in today's market—an overlooked revenue-rich tech stock with a cheap valuation and a dividend yield in excess of 7%. See what stocks are receiving Strong Buy ratings from top-rated analysts. Filter, analyze, and streamline your search for investment opportunities with TipRanks' Stock Screener. I'm bullish on shares of this underappreciated e-commerce player based on its attractive long-term growth potential, inexpensive valuation, and mouthwatering dividend angle. As an added bonus, Wall St. analysts covering the stock forecast a potential upside of over 30% over the next 12 months. Kaspi was founded in 2008 and is based in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The stock debuted in the U.S. last January with a listing on the Nasdaq that raised $1 billion and was valued at $17.5 billion. The company subsequently canceled its listing on the London Stock Exchange based on low liquidity and trading volumes. For the many investors who are not yet familiar with Kaspi, it is a 'super app' from Kazakhstan that provides users with a variety of services, including an e-commerce marketplace, payments, and fintech services such as buy now pay later (BNPL) banking, and lending. Customers can even renew their driver's licenses using the app. The company also operates hundreds of walk-in branches across Kazakhstan, offering services directly to customers as one of the nation's leading financial solutions providers. U.S. investors can think of Kaspi as a combination of Amazon (AMZN), PayPal (PYPL), and Affirm (AFRM) all rolled into one company. In many ways, Kaspi is similar to more high-profile international e-commerce players like MercadoLibre (MELI) and Sea Limited (SE), which provide customers with an all-encompassing suite of these services in their respective markets. Kaspi is firing on all cylinders, as each of its three business segments, payments, marketplace, and fintech, are growing revenue and net income by double-digits year-over-year. For example, during the most recent quarter, the payments segment posted 25% year-over-year revenue growth and a 25% year-over-year jump in net income; Marketplace reported a 43% increase in revenue and a 14% increase in net income, and Fintech recorded a 24% increase in revenue and a 15% gain in net income. All in all, it added up to consolidated 28% year-over-year revenue growth and 18% net income growth. Last month, Kaspi took a controlling interest in Turkish e-commerce leader Hepsiburada (HEPS) by acquiring a controlling interest of 40 million Class A and 173 million Class B shares for $1.1 billion. The move brings Kaspi into the lucrative Turkish market and dramatically expands the company's addressable market to 100 million people, a long-term goal of Kaspi management. For context, Kazakhstan has a population of about 20 million versus Turkey's population of over 85 million, making this acquisition a game changer. There is obviously integration risk, and much work remains to ensure the acquisition is successful and provides synergies. Still, it is an exciting strategic maneuver that positions Kaspi for significantly more long-term growth. Despite this massive growth potential, Kaspi shares are remarkably cheap. In fact, they trade at just 7.6x forward earnings estimates, with consensus analyst estimates calling for the company to earn $13.41 per share in 2025. It's difficult to understate just how cheap this is—right now, the S&P 500 (SPX) trades for over 25 times earnings, more than three times Kaspi's valuation. Companies that I would consider comparable to Kaspi are mega-cap e-commerce stocks like Amazon, MercadoLibre, and Sea Limited (SE). These stocks also tie in elements of fintech and other businesses and trade at much higher valuations. Amazon, the largest of these comps (and the only one based in the U.S.), trades for 34.3x 2025 earnings estimates, nearly five times Kaspi's valuation. Meanwhile, other non-U.S. comparables also enjoy much richer valuations than Kaspi. Uruguay's MercadoLibre trades for an even higher 49.1x 2025 earnings estimates, while Singapore's Sea Limited trades for 35.2x estimates. These are all great businesses in their own right, but it seems unjustified that Kaspi trades at single-digit earnings multiple while these other e-commerce players trade at multiples far north of the broader market. I can think of the primary reason for Kaspi's undervaluation is that its home market, Kazakhstan, is off the beaten path for most investors. Furthermore, the company is not yet known to most investors; it only debuted in 2019. Additionally, the company had to grapple with a short report from a short-seller that alleged it had ties to Russia during its first year as a publicly traded company in the U.S., which likely hurt its momentum. However, Kaspi has refuted the claims from the report, saying that being the first Kazakh company to successfully list on the NASDAQ has 'obviously raised our profile' with short-sellers. At this point, nothing further has come from the short report, and the claims don't appear to have gained much traction six months later. The massive gap in valuations between Kaspi and its aforementioned peers illustrates how much potential upside lies ahead for Kaspi as it continues to grow and become more of a known entity to investors. Unlike many of its peers in the fintech and e-commerce space, Kaspi is a dividend stock with a massive yield. Shares currently yield 7.11%, which is hard to beat in today's market, especially a tech stock. This yield blows away that of the S&P 500, which currently yields just 1.3%, and easily beats that of 10-year treasury bonds, which currently yield 4.4%. Kaspi's closest comps, like the aforementioned Amazon, MercadoLibre, and Sea Limited, do not pay dividends at this point in time, further underscoring Kaspi's standing as a unique opportunity in the tech space. Turning to Wall Street, KSPI earns a Strong Buy consensus rating based on three Buys, zero Holds, and zero Sell ratings assigned in the past three months. The average analyst KSPI price target of $134.33 per share implies a 31% upside potential from current levels. I'm bullish on Kaspi, the emerging force in the international e-commerce space. Kaspi offers significant long-term growth potential in Kazakhstan and beyond, and it is the rare growth stock that trades at a low double-digit earnings multiple. Couple this inexpensive valuation with a 7% dividend yield, and Kaspi is a beautiful opportunity for long-term investors. Wall Street analysts are also supportive of the KSPI growth story and their northward price targets reaching for over 30% upside later this year. Given the confluence of factors, I think KSPI is a small but appreciative tech stock with a difference. Disclosure Sign in to access your portfolio
Associated Press
17-02-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
KSPI DEADLINE ALERT: Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz Investors Are Encouraged to Contact Kaplan Fox Before Lead Plaintiff Deadline on February 18, 2025
NEWMEDIAWIRE) - Kaplan Fox & Kilsheimer LLP announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed against Joint Stock Company ('Kaspi' or the 'Company') (NASDAQ: KSPI) on behalf of investors that purchased or otherwise acquired Kaspi securities between January 19, 2024 and September 19, 2024 (the 'Class Period'). If you are an investor in Kaspi and have suffered losses, you may CLICK HERE to contact us. You may also contact Kaplan Fox by emailing [email protected] or by calling (646) 315-9003. DEADLINE REMINDER: If you are a member of the proposed Class, you may move the court no later than February 18, 2025 to serve as a lead plaintiff for the purported class. If you have losses we encourage you to contact us to learn more about the lead plaintiff process. On September 19, 2024, Culper Research published a report entitled, ' (KSPI): The NASDAQ-Listed Fintech Moving Money for Criminals and Kleptocrats' (the ' Culper Report'). The Culper Report alleges that the Company 'has systematically misled U.S. investors and regulators in its repeated claims – especially ahead of the company's January 2024 NASDAQ listing – that the company has zero exposure to Russia.' The Culper Report further alleges that its research found the 'Company's vast, longstanding ties to bad actors including sanctioned oligarchs and Russian mobsters.' Following this news, Kaspi stock price fell $19.20 per share, over 16%, to close at $99.81 per share on September 19, 2024. The complaint alleges, among other things, that throughout the Class Period, Defendants made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that (i) Kaspi continued doing business with Russian entities, and also providing services to Russian citizens, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, thereby exposing the Company to the undisclosed risk of sanctions; (ii) the Company engaged in undisclosed related party transactions; and (iii) certain of the Company's executives have links to reputed criminals. WHY CONTACT KAPLAN FOX - Kaplan Fox is a leading national law firm focusing on complex litigation with offices in New York, Oakland, Los Angeles, Chicago and New Jersey. With over 50 years of experience in securities litigation, Kaplan Fox offers the professional experience and track record that clients demand. Through prosecuting cases on the federal and state levels, Kaplan Fox has successfully shaped the law through winning many important decisions on behalf of our clients. For more information about Kaplan Fox & Kilsheimer LLP, you may visit our website at This press release may be considered Attorney Advertising in some jurisdictions under the applicable law and ethical rules. Pamela A. Mayer 800 Third Avenue, 38th Floor New York, New York 10022 (646) 315-9003 1999 Harrison Street, Suite 1560 Oakland, California 94612 (415) 772-4704
