Latest news with #KansasCityFed
CNBC
2 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Too soon to make call on tariff impacts, says fmr. Kansas City Fed President Esther George
Esther George, Former Kansas City Fed President, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the idea of a 'shadow' Fed chair, the impact of tariffs, the state of the U.S. consumer, and more.
CNBC
30-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Former Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George: I'd be surprised if inflation moves down much at all
Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, April PCE inflation data, impact on the Fed's interest rate decision, and more.
Axios
24-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Corporate leaders don't want to hire or invest
Actual business activity — sales, employment, and so on — is holding up just fine for now. But a profound worry about the future has settled in among America's corporate leaders, making them reluctant to invest or hire. The big picture: That picture of corporate paralysis comes through in the latest Beige Book, in which Fed officials try to discern what's happening beneath the surface of the U.S. economy by calling up businesspeople and asking them. It points to a risk that, even if March and April data suggest economic stability — and it has so far — corporate behavior is shifting in ways creating high odds of a downturn later in the year. At turning points in the economy, anecdotal compilations like the Fed's eight-times-a-year Beige Book can be good guides to how things are changing in ways that haven't yet shown up in the data. State of play: The report's top-line summaries of current conditions sound perfectly fine. "Economic activity was little changed since the previous report," it says. "Employment was little changed to up slightly" in most of the country. It's one layer down that the signs of trouble emerge. When it comes to future planning, the trade war is creating profound uncertainty that looks to already be translating into restrained hiring and capital spending. Contacts in several Fed districts "reported that firms were taking a wait-and-see approach to employment, pausing or slowing hiring until there is more clarity on economic conditions," the report said, along with "scattered reports of firms preparing for layoffs." "Business leaders indicated recent strategy discussions shifted away from capital investments aimed at innovation and efficiency toward a focus almost entirely on mitigating tariff-related risks," reported the Kansas City Fed. By the numbers: The document used the word "uncertainty" 80 times, up from 45 times in the early March edition and 11 times a year ago. In the edition released in April 2020 — the early days of the pandemic — the word appeared only 19 times. In October of 2008, during the free fall phase of the global financial crisis, 16 times. In other words, by this (admittedly imperfect) measure, businesspeople are more unsure of what lies ahead than they were even in some of the most traumatic moments in modern economic history.
Yahoo
27-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed's Schmid: 'Now is not the time to let down our guard' on inflation
Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said Thursday that he has grown more cautious about the downward path of inflation as consumer expectations for future price increases surge. "With inflation just recently at a 40-year high, now is not the time to let down our guard," Schmid said in a speech at the US Department of Agriculture's conference in Arlington, Va. "It could be argued that some of the factors driving up inflation expectations are likely one-off transitory developments, but again given recent experience, I am not willing to take any chances." His comments came after a new survey from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence notching its biggest monthly decline in nearly four years, and inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 6% from 5.2% amid higher egg prices and concerns about tariffs from the new Trump administration. Schmid said discussions with contacts in his district, as well as some recent data, suggest that uncertainty might weigh on growth. "This presents the possibility that the Fed could have to balance inflation risks against growth concerns,' he said. The latest reading from the Fed's preferred inflation target, the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, is due out Friday. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading for January from a separate gauge, Consumer Price Index (CPI), made it much more likely that the Fed will keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its policy meeting on March 18-19 for the second time this year after cutting rates by 100 basis points for three consecutive meetings last fall. Schmid on Thursday pointed to lessons from the 1970s and 1980s where he said that lowering rates in response to softening data before inflation is beat can allow inflation to gain a hold in expectations and the price-setting process. He also warned that once inflation is embedded in expectations it becomes much more painful to overcome. Schmid also said he "might prefer" replacing the current core inflation with a measure of inflation excluding only energy prices because he doesn't believe food prices are that volatile and they are part of household's daily expenditures. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin also warned this week about lessons from the 1970s. Barkin said he wants to keep interest rates "modestly restrictive" until he gains more confidence inflation is returning to the central bank's 2% goal. "It is critical that we remain steadfast," said Barkin. "We learned in the '70s that if you back off inflation too soon, you can allow it to reemerge. No one wants to pay that price." Last week St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said he was concerned about higher inflation and lower growth and unemployment amid talk of higher tariffs and changing immigration policies from the Trump administration. He noted that he wants to 'monitor economic conditions and the outlook before making any further adjustments to the stance of policy.' Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
