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DW
16-05-2025
- Politics
- DW
How will the Indus water treaty freeze affect South Asia? – DW – 05/16/2025
India and Pakistan may have agreed to a ceasefire — but New Delhi says the 64-year-old Indus Waters Treaty remains "in abeyance." What does that mean for water-sharing in the region and beyond? "Water and blood cannot flow together," Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his address to the nation after New Delhi and Islamabad agreed to a ceasefire on May 10. "If Pakistan wants to survive, it will have to destroy its terror infrastructure. There is no other way to peace," he added. Modi's speech did not mention the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), but his message rang clear — the fighting may have come to an end but the 64-year-old water-sharing deal with Pakistan will remain suspended, or as the Indian government puts it: "in abeyance." So far, the water appears to flow as freely as it has for decades, but some reports say India is considering plans to build infrastructure that would allow it to store and divert more water from the Indus river system. The Indus is the longest river in South Asia, spanning over 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) long. It actually includes a complex system of tributaries that flows from Tibet, through divided Kashmir, and into Pakistan, before emptying into the Arabian Sea near Karachi. Unilaterally pausing the agreement to share its waters was one of the first steps India took in response to Islamist militants killing 26 civilians, almost all male Hindu tourists, in India-administered Kashmir on April 22. The attack was claimed by a group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance, which India says is also known as The Resistance Front and is linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a UN-designated terrorist organization. New Delhi accused Islamabad of backing the brutal massacre — a claim Islamabad denies. "If there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on terrorism," Modi emphasized in his televised speech. Meanwhile, the government in Islamabad announced it would consider any withholding of water "an act of war" as the Indus is the most vital source of water for most of Pakistan's farms and hydropower plants. Tensions flare as India scraps water treaty with Pakistan To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Water security in danger? So what's at stake if one side walks away from a deal once hailed as a rare success story between the two arch-rivals — a treaty that withstood wars, terror attacks, and diplomatic freezes, until now? Some experts worry that the entire region's water security could be in danger. India is upstream on the Indus compared to Pakistan — but the river originates in Tibet, under Chinese control. At the same time, India is downstream on the Brahmaputra river, which begins in China as the Yarlung Tsangpo and supplies freshwater to millions in northeastern India — making it vulnerable to decisions made upstream. Others point out that India has only put the treaty "in abeyance" — a legal gray zone which is reversible, and could be seen as a measured diplomatic tool. India's move to use the IWT as geopolitical leverage "undermines the legal integrity of such treaties," said Farhana Sultana, a water, climate and development expert with research experience in South Asia. "These treaty violations and suspensions can have ripple-on deleterious (harmful) effects across and beyond the region for the examples they set," Sultana told DW, adding that "any unilateral suspension of a treaty on transboundary international rivers pose grave threats to regional security." Eroding trust among neighbors Sultana, a professor in the department of geography and environment at the US-based Syracuse University, warned that India's government might also be tempted to prioritize its own water needs over those of its eastern neighbor Bangladesh if the treaty suspension proves to be an effective tool in the case of Pakistan. India shares the Ganges river basin with Bangladesh under the Ganga Water Treaty signed in 1996 and it is set for renewal next year. Diplomatic relations between New Delhi and Dhaka have been strained since former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India in 2024 after being ousted from office. Another expert on transboundary water resources and international law, who asked not to be named, agreed with Sultana's assessment. "Transboundary water treaties create trust and predictability for the riparian states, and have typically been separated from other issues. The unilateral suspension raises serious concerns for all states in the region," the expert said. "For India it also raises serious concerns as to the future relations with its other neighbors, particularly Bangladesh and China, as trust will be eroded. China is a strong ally of Pakistan," they added. China has significant investments in Pakistan's hydroelectric infrastructure on the Indus river. It is also investing in the management of the Teesta in Bangladesh — a river which originates in India. The region is crucial for China's Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping to boost China's economic and political influence. Kashmir: 'Our father saved us, the next minute he was gone' To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video A legal gray zone The IWT's framework — negotiated over nine years and uniquely mediated by the World Bank — includes no provision for withdrawal. At the same time, it establishes a multi-tiered dispute resolution system that allows India and Pakistan to resolve disagreements and amend the treaty, but only with mutual consent. The treaty is strictly bilateral and does not fall under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969) , which sets out rules for how parties can manage and terminate agreements. The IWT also does not address the possibility of "abeyance" — India's chosen phrase. So, while India hasn't officially quit the treaty, it's also not fully operating under its framework — creating a legal gray area. Gabriel Eckstien, water law and policy expert, told DW that the move hurts India's previously maintained "moral high ground." He added that the consequences go even further than that. "International water law is a function of state practice, meaning a bunch of states have done this for so long in a certain way that everybody starts to say that's the law. But now we have certain states veering, it's going to start to weaken what we understood as international water law and start questioning it," Eckstien said. His argument points to the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses which requires countries to use shared rivers fairly and avoid causing significant harm. India hasn't signed the convention but generally recognizes its principles and follows them in practice. The Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank, points out that India's move is not without precedent. Advocate Nishant Sirohi writes that there are "limited but notable" examples of states suspending treaty obligations in response to extraordinary circumstances. One of them happened as recently as 2023. The US partially suspended the New START Treaty on nuclear arms reduction with Russia in response to non-compliance, a move which could legally be reversed if Russia fulfilled certain requirements. That is "similar to India's current approach on the IWT," he wrote. Kashmir: The Pakistani militant groups India is targeting To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video 'Smart, subtle politics' Anamika Barua, a water security expert and professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in the eastern city of Guwahati, says wider concerns about a treaty violation are misplaced. "Had India suspended the treaty, it would have sent the wrong signal. But it has specifically used the term 'abeyance,' as if to give some time to Pakistan to look into its conduct, and tell the entire world that if Pakistan meets its requirement maybe we will go back to where we were," she told DW. "It's very smart and subtle politics." This also takes away the point of India having acted unilaterally. "India will say we are not (walking away). We have only told them," she said. In April, India's Water Resources Minister C R Patil announced that India was working on a short, medium and long-term plan to ensure "not even a drop of water from the Indus River goes to Pakistan." While the plans were not clearly outlined, media reports say it involves diversion in the short-medium term and building hydroelectric dams in the long term. Barua is concerned that the move may not achieve its intended goals. "In the short term, stopping the river's flow could be difficult without the necessary infrastructure," she said. "And in the long run, India must avoid building large dams on the Indus system that could harm the river's ecosystem and affect downstream communities." Kashmir residents feel unsafe despite India-Pakistan truce To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Where do we go from here? The experts DW spoke to agree on one thing — that India and Pakistan will have to go back to diplomatic channels to eventually reinstate the treaty. Eckstien, for instance, does not believe there is a legal way forward. The World Bank can only act as a mediator within the framework of the treaty which India has now put aside. Islamabad could register a case at the International Court of Justice but India only recognizes its jurisdiction in very specific, pre-outlined cases. If there's no specific agreement taking India to the international court, "India could just wave it off," he said. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he was ready to engage in peace talks with India, which will inadvertently involve the IWT. India has been trying for years to bring Pakistan to the table to renegotiate the treaty, which India's government believes is inconsiderate of India's growing population and water needs. If talks really ensue, they will likely reimagine the distribution of the contentious waters. Old or reworked, a functioning Indus Waters Treaty is critical — especially for India and Pakistan, both of which are bearing the brunt of climate change and mounting pressure on their freshwater resources. Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Kashmir: India and Pakistan's conflict explained
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. India launched missiles into Pakistan on Wednesday in an escalation of tensions after militants opened fire on tourists in the disputed Kashmir region last month. The attack took place in the Indian-administered part of the region and the 26 victims were mostly Indian tourists. Though Pakistan denies responsibility, the Indian defence ministry said its "Operation Sindoor" hit targeted sites within Pakistani territory used by the perpetrators – a group known as Kashmir Resistance. Control over Kashmir is split mainly between India and Pakistan. India controls a little over half of the region, while roughly a third is administered by Pakistan. China controls the remaining 15% – the desolate northeastern region of Aksai Chin, through which it built a strategically valuable road in the late 1950s connecting Xinjiang with the recently annexed Tibet in the south. Kashmir is hotly disputed and has been since the partition of British India in 1947, with the first armed conflict between Pakistan and India taking place that year. Delhi and Islamabad claim rightful ownership over the entirety of Kashmir to this day, and tensions between the two nuclear states have increased in the last decade. In 1947, Britain's former Indian colony was split into two independent states: Pakistan, a predominantly Muslim nation, and India, which is majority Hindu. The then ruler of Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh, ceded control to India in exchange for security guarantees. But the region was then attacked by militants from Pakistan, sparking the First Kashmir War. That conflict, also known as the Indo-Pakistani War, lasted two years before the United Nations stepped in to negotiate a ceasefire. This resulted in a de facto division of Kashmir between India and Pakistan, called the Line of Control. The line was meant as a stopgap, "pending a more permanent political settlement", said The New York Times. With no long-standing political resolution, there have been two further wars over the region. The second Kashmir war took place in 1965, sparked by a covert operation by the Pakistani military into Indian Kashmir. The conflict was brutal but lasted only a few weeks, with the US and Soviet Union helping to broker a ceasefire. The most recent official conflict took place in 1999, though insurgencies and attacks had been a common feature in Kashmir in the intervening period. The Kargil War again began after Pakistani forces infiltrated Indian Kashmir. Although it was a short war – with India ultimately regaining control of the area – it was fierce, resulting in hundreds of casualties for both nations. India and Pakistan also went to war in 1971 over the independence of Bangladesh, a conflict that led to talks aimed at improving relations between the two powers. One upshot of those talks was that the Line of Control in Kashmir was made permanent. Although there have been no further wars in Kashmir since 1999, the area has been blighted by small-scale insurgencies and terror attacks. In 2019, Delhi stripped Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status, as part of a wider security clampdown that attracted criticism from human rights groups. The Pakistan-controlled area, called Azad Kashmir, is officially self-governing but economically and administratively dependent on Pakistan. The recent strikes by India represent the "most significant military actions in recent years", said India Today. Islamabad has called the attacks a "blatant act of war", leaving the prospect of further conflict in Kashmir on a knife-edge.
Chicago Tribune
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
Nuclear rivals India and Pakistan step back from brink of war. Here's a timeline of how it happened
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A gun massacre of tourists on April 22 pushed India and Pakistan a step closer to war, marking the biggest breakdown in relations since 2019. Conflict between India and Pakistan is not rare, with the two countries having periodically engaged in wars, clashes and skirmishes since gaining independence from British India in 1947. The difference with this escalation was the frequency and intensity of strikes and retaliation. Although the U.S. previously said it would not step in, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he and Vice President JD Vance talked to senior government and military officials on both sides, with the two countries agreeing to an immediate ceasefire. Here's a timeline of how the latest conflict unfolded: Gunmen shoot and kill at least 26 tourists at Pahalgam resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir, a major shift in a regional conflict that has largely spared civilians. The unidentified gunmen also wound 17 other people. A group called Kashmir Resistance, which India accuses Pakistan of backing, claims the attack. Survivors tell The Associated Press that gunmen asked people if they were Hindu and then opened fire. India downgrades diplomatic ties, closes the only functional land border crossing, and suspends a crucial water-sharing treaty that has survived two wars and a major border skirmish between the two countries. India launches a manhunt for the Pahalgam assailants. Pakistan denies involvement with the attack. India and Pakistan cancel visas for each other's nationals, setting a deadline for them to leave. In retaliation, Pakistan shuts its airspace for all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines, and suspends all trade with India, including to and from any third country. Government ministers on both sides hint the dispute could escalate to military action. India says its troops exchanged fire with Pakistani soldiers at the Line of Control, the de facto border dividing the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistan warns it could suspend an agreement that established the Line of Control, in what would be a major and worrying step. The United Nations urges both sides to 'exercise maximum restraint.' Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vows his government will respond 'with full force and might' to Indian attempts to stop or divert the flow of water. Iran offers mediation, while Trump says he expects them to work out their differences. 'There's great tension between Pakistan and India, but there always has been,' he tells reporters aboard Air Force One. Authorities in Indian-controlled Kashmir temporarily close dozens of resorts in the scenic Himalayan region after the deadly attack on tourists. Troops from both countries exchange fire over the Line of Control for a fifth consecutive night. Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar says his government has 'credible intelligence' that India intends to carry out military action against Pakistan in the next 24 to 36 hours. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls senior officials in India and Pakistan in an effort to defuse the crisis. U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce says Rubio in his call with India expressed sorrow over the killings in Pahalgam and reaffirmed the U.S.'s 'commitment to cooperation with India against terrorism.' Pakistan says Rubio emphasized the need for both sides to 'continue working together for peace and stability' in South Asia. Pakistan test-fires a ballistic missile with a range of 450 kilometers (about 280 miles). Missiles are not fired toward the border area with India; they are normally fired into the Arabian Sea or the deserts of the southwest Balochistan province. India suspends the exchange of all mail from Pakistan through air and surface routes and bans the direct and indirect import of goods from its neighbor. It also bars Pakistani-flagged ships from entering its ports and prohibits Indian-flagged vessels from visiting Pakistani ports. India fires missiles on Pakistan, which calls the strikes an 'act of war' and vows to avenge those who died in the pre-dawn attack. The missiles kill 31 people, including women and children, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the country's Punjab province. The strikes targeted at least nine sites 'where terrorist attacks against India have been planned,' says India's Defense Ministry. Pakistan claims it downed several Indian fighter jets. India fires attack drones into Pakistan, killing at least two civilians, the Pakistani military says. India, meanwhile, accuses its neighbor of attempting its own attack and acknowledges targeting its archrival's air defense system. India evacuates thousands of people from villages near the highly militarized frontier in the Kashmir region. Flights remain suspended at over two dozen airports across northern and western regions of India. Pakistan's Punjab province announces the immediate closure of all schools and other educational institutions. India suspends its biggest domestic cricket tournament for a week following the escalating military tensions with Pakistan. Pakistan initially says it will move its own domestic T20 tournament to the United Arab Emirates because of the crisis, but then says it will only postpone matches. Several northern and western Indian states shut schools and other educational institutions. U.S. Vice President JD Vance says a potential war between India and Pakistan would be 'none of our business.' India's army says drones have been sighted in 26 locations across many areas in Indian states bordering Pakistan and Indian-controlled Kashmir, including the main city of Srinagar. The drones were tracked and engaged, it adds. The Group of Seven nations, or G7, urge 'maximum restraint' from both India and Pakistan, warning that further military escalation poses a serious threat to regional stability. Pakistan says India has fired missiles at air bases inside the country and that retaliatory strikes are underway. The Indian missiles targeted Nur Khan air base in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad, Murid air base in Chakwal city, and Rafiqui air base in the Jhang district of eastern Punjab province, according to the Pakistani army's chief spokesperson. Pakistan says it has fired missiles at Indian military positions. Residents in Indian-controlled Kashmir report hearing loud explosions at multiple places in the region, including Srinagar, Jammu, and the garrison town of Udhampur. Both countries indicate they are willing to de-escalate if the other side reciprocates. The first word of a truce comes from U.S. President Donald Trump, who posts on his Truth Social platform that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. Senior officials from both sides quickly confirm the deal, which is expected to bring a swift conclusion to military escalation.
Epoch Times
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Epoch Times
India and Pakistan Agree to US-Mediated Cease-Fire
India and Pakistan have agreed to the terms of a U.S.-mediated cease-fire following three days of cross-border shelling, drone attacks, and missile strikes. President Donald Trump The two nuclear powers came to blows on May 7, in their most serious confrontation in decades. The conflict stemmed from an attack in an Indian-controlled part of Kashmir in which terrorists opened fire on a group of tourists and killed 26 people. A relatively unknown group called the Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility for the attack, and India suggested the group was an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist group that has in the past attacked the Indian military and police. Pakistan has denied the allegation and suggested the attack was an Indian false flag operation. Islamabad and New Delhi have periodically come to blows over control of Kashmir since 1947, when India and Pakistan were first divided and granted independence by the British Empire. At that time, Pakistan was created as a nation for India's Muslims, in a similar manner to how Britain divided Israel and Palestine in 1948. Related Stories 5/10/2025 5/8/2025 Pakistan's foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, announced the cease-fire in a statement to local news and added that Saudi Arabia and Turkey played a role in facilitating the deal. 'Pakistan and India have agreed to a ceasefire with immediate effect,' Dar Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, meanwhile, said that military chiefs from both countries spoke in the afternoon and would speak again on Sunday. 'It was agreed between them that both sides would stop all firing and military action on land, and in the air and sea. ... Instructions have been given on both sides to give effect to this understanding,' Misri said. More than 60 people have been killed in the clashes, which threatened to destabilize the subcontinent with all-out war between nuclear-armed powers. The fighting began on May 7 when India carried out strikes on what it said was terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani Kashmir and Pakistan. Though India and Pakistan have seen dozens of brief dust-ups and border clashes in recent years, the two powers have not engaged in an all-out war since 1999, when Pakistani militants crossed the border into Indian-controlled territory in an effort to seize more land in Kashmir. India also blames Pakistan for a decades-long Islamist insurgency in Kashmir and elsewhere that began in the eighties and has killed tens of thousands of people. Pakistan said that it is not behind the insurgency but that it provides moral, political, and diplomatic support to Kashmiri separatists. Pakistan has likewise been accused by the United States of sponsoring terrorism throughout recent decades, including in 2011 when U.S. forces located and killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a northwestern province of the country.
Euronews
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
India and Pakistan agree ceasefire after days of cross-border strikes
Pakistan's foreign minister said on Saturday that his country would consider de-escalation if India stopped any further attacks. He said Saudi Arabia and also Turkey played an important role in facilitating the deal, which came into effect at 4.30 pm local time. It has fully reopened its airspace for all types of flights. Indian Wing Commander Vyomika Singh told a news conference in New Delhi that her country was committed to 'non-escalation, provided the Pakistan side reciprocates.' On his Truth Social platform, US President Donald Trump said he was pleased to announce that India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. 'Congratulations to both Countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!' read his post. On Saturday, a Pakistani official said at least 11 people were killed and 56 others wounded in what he said was Indian shelling in several areas near the Line of Control in Kashmir. The country's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said Pakistan had responded after India's overnight missile attacks at air bases and other places. India denies hitting civilian targets. Gunmen shot and killed at least 26 tourists at Pahalgam resort in Indian-controlled Kashmir on 22 April, which was a major shift in a regional conflict that has largely spared civilians. The unidentified gunmen also wounded 17 other people. A group called Kashmir Resistance, which India accuses Pakistan of backing, claimed the attack. The fresh round of confrontation was yet another escalation of a decades-long conflict over the disputed Kashmir region that began after a bloody partition of India in 1947.
