Latest news with #KaterynaBondar
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
The AI drone revolution isn't here yet, but Ukraine and Russia are laying the groundwork in battle
Ukraine and Russia are working on implementing artificial intelligence into their drones. But both sides face challenges in mass-deploying that capability, recent research says. There has been some limited use of AI in drones on the battlefield, but it's mostly machine learning. The drone war in Ukraine remains largely human-operated for now. We're seeing glimpses of the future, but we're not there yet. Ukraine and Russia are experimenting with artificial intelligence-enabled drones, but total autonomy and full-scale deployment remain limited in combat, researchers say. AI-enabled autonomy in uncrewed systems has the potential to significantly impact how drones are used on the battlefield, reducing the strain on human operators, bypassing electronic warfare and signal jamming, and speeding up the targeting and decision-making process. It can also analyze data and adapt in real time, which is advantageous in combat. Kateryna Bondar, a fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies Wadhwani AI Center, reported in March that autonomy, a system's ability to independently operate in complex environments with limited supervision, isn't "yet present on the battlefield in the war in Ukraine." A new report from Institute for the Study of War expert Kateryna Stepanenko explains that "neither Russia nor Ukraine has leveraged AI/ML drones on the battlefield at scale as of early June 2025," referring to artificial intelligence and machine learning. The report notes that both sides are "increasingly integrating ML capabilities with some limited AI adaptations into new drone variants on the path to developing fully AI/ML-powered drones." Drones that use machine learning, even with some AI, still largely require involvement from an operator. Machine learning could enable the drones to perform pre-programmed tasks, but they lack the autonomy a true AI capability would provide. Ukrainian forces have observed Russia flying drone swarms that rely on visual terrain navigation — which uses onboard cameras and maps instead of vulnerable GPS — and can autonomously detect and select targets without operator input. Late last month, Ukraine said it deployed an AI-enabled "mother drone" that can autonomously send first-person view drones to strike targets. And the Security Service of Ukraine reported that the uncrewed systems used in its Operation Spiderweb attack against Russian aircraft at military airbases earlier this month switched to using AI to complete their mission if they lost signal with the operator. The security service said this was done using AI algorithms and manual operator intervention. Bondar's report in March on drones said that the attack systems equipped with AI are three to four times more likely to hit their target than drones piloted solely by humans. But has the revolution come? One commander of another drone unit said last fall that he expected AI-enabled drones that didn't need a pilot to be on the battlefield within six months. That future is not here just yet. Earlier this year, a front-line Ukrainian drone unit told Business Insider that AI-enabled drones weren't being widely used yet. The war has become a proving ground for cheap drones and emerging technology; however, turning prototypes into a scalable, battlefield-ready AI fleet will require data, chips, and coordination that neither side fully has at the moment. For Russia, Stepanenko wrote, further development of these important combat capabilities will depend on gathering, storing, and managing battlefield data to train the AI for missions, as well as, critically, sorting out how best to identify enemy drones from friendly ones. Ukraine has already been working on the latter with situational awareness systems like Delta and Kropyva, which Stepanenko reported are similar to the command and control systems the US Department of Defense has envisioned. Delta, for example, gives Ukrainian forces across branches and command levels coordinated intelligence from a variety of different systems, including drones, sensors, frontline reconnaissance, and satellites. In attempting to overcome the broader development challenges, though, Russia struggles with the centralization of drone innovation and production under the government in a way that could hinder advancement. Ukraine, on the other hand, is struggling with resources. Ukraine also faces problems with a lack of government coordination, computing power, and sustainment. Amid these challenges, Ukraine's drone developers have nonetheless become a model for the rest of the world. Companies are working closely with front-line forces to meet their needs, effectively creating relatively low-cost systems at scale that push the envelope in new capabilities, such as drone swarm technology. But in the meantime, more testing and investment are needed by both sides in this war before autonomous, AI-enabled systems really make their mark on the battlefield. The anticipated changes they could bring, though, would likely overhaul how drone warfare is fought. Ukraine's Typhoon drone unit told BI that once they became prolific on the battlefield, they'd completely change how operators use drones for reconnaissance and strike missions on enemy personnel, positions, and equipment, as well as against aerial targets. Read the original article on Business Insider
Business Insider
7 hours ago
- Business Insider
The AI drone revolution isn't here yet, but Ukraine and Russia are laying the groundwork in battle
Ukraine and Russia are working on implementing artificial intelligence into their drones. But both sides face challenges in mass-deploying that capability, recent research says. There has been some limited use of AI in drones on the battlefield, but it's mostly machine learning. The drone war in Ukraine remains largely human-operated for now. We're seeing glimpses of the future, but we're not there yet. Ukraine and Russia are experimenting with artificial intelligence-enabled drones, but total autonomy and full-scale deployment remain limited in combat, researchers say. AI-enabled autonomy in uncrewed systems has the potential to significantly impact how drones are used on the battlefield, reducing the strain on human operators, bypassing electronic warfare and signal jamming, and speeding up the targeting and decision-making process. It can also analyze data and adapt in real time, which is advantageous in combat. Not quite autonomous and not being used at scale Kateryna Bondar, a fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies Wadhwani AI Center, reported in March that autonomy, a system's ability to independently operate in complex environments with limited supervision, isn't "yet present on the battlefield in the war in Ukraine." A new report from Institute for the Study of War expert Kateryna Stepanenko explains that "neither Russia nor Ukraine has leveraged AI/ML drones on the battlefield at scale as of early June 2025," referring to artificial intelligence and machine learning. The report notes that both sides are "increasingly integrating ML capabilities with some limited AI adaptations into new drone variants on the path to developing fully AI/ML-powered drones." Drones that use machine learning, even with some AI, still largely require involvement from an operator. Machine learning could enable the drones to perform pre-programmed tasks, but they lack the autonomy a true AI capability would provide. Not an AI revolution, at least not yet Ukrainian forces have observed Russia flying drone swarms that rely on visual terrain navigation — which uses onboard cameras and maps instead of vulnerable GPS — and can autonomously detect and select targets without operator input. Late last month, Ukraine said it deployed an AI-enabled "mother drone" that can autonomously send first-person view drones to strike targets. And the Security Service of Ukraine reported that the uncrewed systems used in its Operation Spiderweb attack against Russian aircraft at military airbases earlier this month switched to using AI to complete their mission if they lost signal with the operator. The security service said this was done using AI algorithms and manual operator intervention. Bondar's report in March on drones said that the attack systems equipped with AI are three to four times more likely to hit their target than drones piloted solely by humans. But has the revolution come? One commander of another drone unit said last fall that he expected AI-enabled drones that didn't need a pilot to be on the battlefield within six months. That future is not here just yet. Earlier this year, a front-line Ukrainian drone unit told Business Insider that AI-enabled drones weren't being widely used yet. The war has become a proving ground for cheap drones and emerging technology; however, turning prototypes into a scalable, battlefield-ready AI fleet will require data, chips, and coordination that neither side fully has at the moment. For Russia, Stepanenko wrote, further development of these important combat capabilities will depend on gathering, storing, and managing battlefield data to train the AI for missions, as well as, critically, sorting out how best to identify enemy drones from friendly ones. Ukraine has already been working on the latter with situational awareness systems like Delta and Kropyva, which Stepanenko reported are similar to the command and control systems the US Department of Defense has envisioned. Delta, for example, gives Ukrainian forces across branches and command levels coordinated intelligence from a variety of different systems, including drones, sensors, frontline reconnaissance, and satellites. In attempting to overcome the broader development challenges, though, Russia struggles with the centralization of drone innovation and production under the government in a way that could hinder advancement. Ukraine, on the other hand, is struggling with resources. Ukraine also faces problems with a lack of government coordination, computing power, and sustainment. Amid these challenges, Ukraine's drone developers have nonetheless become a model for the rest of the world. Companies are working closely with front-line forces to meet their needs, effectively creating relatively low-cost systems at scale that push the envelope in new capabilities, such as drone swarm technology. But in the meantime, more testing and investment are needed by both sides in this war before autonomous, AI-enabled systems really make their mark on the battlefield. The anticipated changes they could bring, though, would likely overhaul how drone warfare is fought. Ukraine's Typhoon drone unit told BI that once they became prolific on the battlefield, they'd completely change how operators use drones for reconnaissance and strike missions on enemy personnel, positions, and equipment, as well as against aerial targets.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Opinion: How warfare is changing
Are U.S. military leaders preparing to fight the last war, or a modern one with drones, deception and surprise attacks? If nothing else, Ukraine's attack on Russia last weekend has cast a light on how the world is changing. Wars of the future could come down to which nation has the sneakiest, smallest and most AI-ready lethal drones. Kateryna Bondar, a fellow with the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former adviser to Ukraine, wrote recently that Ukraine's 'objective is to remove warfighters from direct combat and replace them with autonomous unmanned systems.' It's AI in the sky. Autonomous drones are much harder to track and destroy than ones operated remotely. Ukraine's 'Operation Spider's Web' reportedly took 18 months of planning and preparation. It involved smuggling a multitude of small drones into storage compartments on freight trucks that delivered them to spots near air bases all over Russia. When launched, these apparently were able to destroy many of Russia's long-range bombers at close range. That kind of unconventional attack is asymmetrical, as the Washington Post noted on Wednesday. It quoted Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, telling Congress in April: The 'character of warfare is changing at a ratio faster than we've ever seen. Our adversaries use $10,000 one-way drones that we shoot down with $2 million missiles. That cost-benefit curve is upside down.' The audacity of this mission was reminiscent of Israel's complicated scheme to put explosive pagers and walkie-talkies into the hands of top Hezbollah leaders. But then, as a colleague reminded me, these were not much different than the 9/11 attacks against the U.S., which required years of infiltration and training, including learning how to fly commercial jets. Nor were they much different from the time, millennia ago, when mythology holds that Greeks hid soldiers inside a wooden horse they gave to the city of Troy, allowing a deadly attack from within. Innovation, creativity and the element of surprise have long been essential to warfare. The difference now is in lethality and the use of artificial intelligence. News reports say Ukraine claims its drones were operating in autonomous mode. Author Robert Greene discusses 'fighting the last war' as the tendency to repeat the tactics, strategies and assumptions that were valid during the previous war, not realizing that the world has changed. The Post quotes Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colorado, a member of the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, as saying the war between Russia and Ukraine has shown how wrong the U.S. is in its planning. 'This conflict has already fundamentally changed the nature of warfare,' the Post quotes Crow as saying, adding that the U.S. spends 'exorbitant amounts of money' on things 'that would be relevant decades ago.' Here in the United States, the conflict may seem worlds away. Europe, however, is much more concerned. Sweden, for example, is renovating and modernizing its approximately 64,000 civil defense bunkers, spread all over the country. Britain's Daily Mail said these, which are capable of sheltering about 7 million people (in a nation of 10.5 million), are being upgraded to protect against nuclear weapons, radioactive fallout and biological and chemical weapons. Neighboring Finland, which has a large border with Russia, has joined Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in withdrawing from a treaty that prohibited the use of landmines, just in case it may need to repel an invasion. The Mail also said Germany is considering conscripting people into the armed services, saying it needs an additional 100,000 soldiers to defend against a Russian attack on NATO, which its chief of defense believes could come within four years. Writing this week for Bloomberg, Aliaksandr Kudrytski, Jake Rudnitsky and Olesia Safronova said drones are threatening to flip the script in Ukraine and elsewhere. 'Taiwan is investing in mass-produced drones in anticipation of a possible conflict with China. Israel has recalibrated the Iron Dome air defense system in the war in Gaza to account for maneuverable drones — one of its biggest blind spots. European governments embarking on their largest rearmament since the Cold War have identified drones and counter-drone systems as an investment priority.' Even the United States is looking for cheaper drones, rather than the expensive, over-engineered ones it helped pioneer. The Atlantic Council recently surveyed more than 350 experts and found 40% of them expecting a global war within the next decade. An optimist would note that experts seldom are right about much of anything. But a realist would say it's good to be prepared, in any event, and especially for the type of war the future may bring.
Forbes
18-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
How Ukraine Is Replacing Human Soldiers With A Robot Army
Ironclad, one of many types of combat Uncrewed Ground Vehicle fielded by Ukrainian forces. Last month, Ukrainian officials announced plans to field 15,000 ground robots – Uncrewed Ground Vehicles or UGVs -- in 2025. That is a huge scaling up, and for obvious reasons. 'It's no secret that Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of personnel,' Kateryna Bondar, Fellow at Wadhwani AI Center, at the thinktank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told me. 'This creates an urgent, existential need to substitute human roles with robotic systems.' Ukraine has scaled up drone production at pace, going from a few thousand in 2022 to 200,000 in 2024 to 2 million last year. But putting thousands of metal boots on the ground to replace humans is a far more challenging prospect, as Bondar explains. The figure of 15,000 combat robots came from Hlib Kanevskyi, head of the Ukraine's Ministry of Defense quoted in Economichna Pravda. Kanevskyi says they signed contracts for $2.5 million of UGVs in the last half of 2024, in the first quarter of this year that surged to $150 million. This suggests a roughly hundred-fold increase. There is certainly plenty of optimism about military robotics, and no shortage of Ukrainian UGV designs, with developers unveiling a new model every week or so. These are wheeled and tracked machines of various shapes and sizes, with roles from minelaying and mine clearing to logistics, casualty evacuation and direct combat either with explosive payloads or machine guns. Recent trials by the BRAVE1 defense technology incubator involved 70 different types. But there is much less sign of these machines at the front. Out of 50 types approved for military use, only 10 to 15 are in regular service according to . Much if this is due to the practicalities, which are more challenging than with shoebox-sized FPVs. 'Imagine bringing a 1,000-kilogram machine to the front line,' says Bondar. 'It's a logistics issue. If it runs on fuel you have to transport that as well, if it runs on batteries they will be big and heavy and require generators to recharge.' Then there is the cost. While small drones are literally expendable items costing a few hundred dollars apiece, UGVs are not so affordable. 'Even a small one with a small payload starts at around $2,000-$3,000,' says Bondar. 'The more expensive ones are $10,000 and up. This is partly because they are much harder to manufacture -- you cannot just make a body on a 3D printer.' At those prices, UGVs are only worthwhile if they can do things which aerial drones cannot. And given that drones are excellent for scouting and hitting targets many miles away with precision strikes, UGVs tend to be confined to more niche roles. 'Logistics are an interesting use case,' says Bondar. 'UGVs are now conducting way more missions and replacing people. Using a UGV removes a person from physical risk.' Zmiy - "Snake" — is a typical logistics UGV, a remote-controlled vehicle able to carry 1,100 pounds ... More of cargo The last few miles to the front line are within the strike range of Russian FPV drones, and trucks and vans are easier to attack than dug in positions. 'Going there and coming back is a super high-risk mission,' says Bondar. 'A UGV which can carry 60 kilos can resupply a troop position for four or five days. That's very efficient.' Casualty evacuation going the other way is equally vital, though few are willing to trust a wounded soldier to a machine which may break down on the way and evacuation by UGV is seen as a last resort. Ukrainian news sources described a UGV evacuation last month, in which three wounded soldiers were transported more than 10 miles through an area covered by Russian mortar and artillery fire. The operation was a success, but it required more than 50 people to carry out, including the UGV operator, drone operators to track the UGVs progress, electronic warfare support and others. This highlights another issue with UGVs: they may be uncrewed, but it takes a lot of people to operate them. And while driving up and down well-defined roads is difficult enough, it is even harder for combat robots which have to go off road. These typically require a driver plus as weapon operator to control the UGV, as well as a two-person drone team to provide aerial overwatch and guide the team on the ground. That's four people plus a load of hardware to replace one soldier. A Russian drone operator shares his display with a colleague operating a UGV on the ground, giving ... More the UGV operator an overhead view to drive his robot. An image of a Russian UGV team in action from a TV news report illustrates this problem well. The UGV is in long grass, and the operator cannot see where he is going. The drone operator shares his display, so the UGV operator gets a bird's-eye view of his position – but the drone operator still needs the display to fly his own machine. Better software and machines which can direct themselves will greatly ease the workload. 'The future is all about autonomy and AI,' says Bondar. Smart software would allow the UGV to navigate for itself, using imagery from an autonomous drone flying overhead. The operator then becomes a mission commander, ordering the UGV where to go, and selecting and approving targets for the weapons. But achieving this is far more difficult than autonomous flight. 'Even in civilian contexts, autonomous ground navigation remains unsolved; self-driving cars still struggle with edge cases on paved roads despite years of investment and defined traffic rules,' says Bondar. And of course, things are much more difficult in a military context. 'The system must be able to perceive its environment in real time, make context-aware decisions, avoid obstacles, and control the vehicle's complex mechanical systems—all under conditions of GPS denial, degraded comms, and electronic warfare,' says Bondar. 'While some promising prototypes exist in research labs, widespread battlefield deployment—especially where a single human serves as a mission commander for multiple UGVs—will likely take several more years to mature, even in high-urgency environments like Ukraine.' But while the software is still maturing, with plenty of human assistance the hardware can already take on carry out useful missions. 'Ukraine has already carried out their first robot-only assault,' says Bondar. 'The whole thing was completely remote-controlled.' This was a successful attack on Russian positions involving a mix of scout drones, bombers, FPVs and dozens of UGVs on the ground carried out by the 13th National Guard Brigade at the end of last year. Bondar notes that as soon as the UGVs had done their job, soldiers moved in to secure the position. The Ukrainians call this approach 'assault without assault' because the soldiers themselves are not involved in the action. 'It looks like Ukraine's main goal in this operation was to collect experience, then create guidelines and standards in term of tactics so this knowledge can be distributed,' says Bondar. 'But I'm pretty sure we will see more of those.' Defensive operations are more straightforward. Ukraine has many robotic weapon systems and automated turrets. The simplest of them, are little more than a machine gun on a tripod with a video camera and a servo motor. Operators using these can co-ordinate with aerial scouts and FPV operators to blunt Russian attacks without anyone in the trenches. 'At this point I think they could hold a defensive position fairly well,' says Bondar. Looking forward, many companies are starting to produce humanoid robots which, in theory, could take on a role as soldiers. However, even tracked machines designed for the terrain have mobility issues. 'Our robot got stuck in the mud while performing a task and we sent another robot with a winch to rescue it,' runs a typical complaint cited in a Ukrainian report on UGV operations. 'As a result, the Russians destroyed the robot with the winch.' Mud, snow, sand and grass are frequently mentioned as major obstacles to UGVs. 'Robot dog' being tested in Ukraine. These have not yet found a battlefield role Legged robots, which are supposed to provide superior mobility over all sorts of terrain are not necessarily the answer. Ukraine has deployed quadrupeds – 'robot dogs' – but Bondar reports the results have been poor. 'Operators complained that ploughed fields are a problem for quadrupeds,' says Bondar. 'And they get stuck in the mud. And they can't hide. At this point they are a nice toy, with no application on the front line yet.' In principle, a humanoid robot would be far more mobile and could cross ground as easily as a human. Machines like Tesla's much-hyped Optimus and Unitree's Humanoid G1 could be useful – when the AI that drives them is smart enough. Elon Musk suggests that Optimus will start from around $30k and will drop in price. But flashy demonstration videos are one thing, practicality – as with the robot dots – is another. Machines like Tesla's Core Technology Optimus humanoid robot could in theory offer a low-cost, ... More mobile platform for military applications. 'While in theory they offer human-like mobility and could eventually move, hide, and take cover like a soldier, their real utility will only become clear through practical battlefield testing,' says Bondar. Battery life of a couple of hours could be more than enough for a robotic unit to carry out an assault, and take a position which could then be occupied by human back-up. This is only a small tactical step from actions from assaults with tracked UGVs, with the difference that humanoids might advance faster and enter trenches and dugouts to clear them. In theory, at least. 'Ultimately, the affordability and effectiveness of humanoid robots will depend entirely on the type of missions they're tasked with and how reliably they can be reused,' says Bondar. 'Until those use cases are tested and proven, their true value remains speculative.' Ukraine's 15,000 robots will be working alongside over 800,000 humans, and for the time being the machines will be in a supporting role rather than taking over combat. 'UGVs are likely to carve out an essential role in performing the most dangerous support tasks, where they can reduce risk to human soldiers without being lost in unsustainable numbers,' says Bondar. Bondar's CSIS paper Ukraine's Future Vision and Current Capabilities for Waging AI-Enabled Autonomous Warfare can be read here. The ratio of robots to humans may change rapidly in Ukraine as it has with drones. And over time AI in particular is likely to transform clumsy UGVs into more mobile, efficient fighting machines. It may not be happening yet, but removing humans from the front lines may be simply a matter of time.
Yahoo
07-03-2025
- Yahoo
Artificial intelligence is going to make drone wars much more deadly. It's already started.
A new report details how artificial intelligence is changing drone warfare. With AI enhancements, the chances of a successful strike improve dramatically. Ukrainian drone operators have said that this technology has the potential to be a game-changer. Drones equipped with AI are flying into battle in Ukraine and are three to four times more likely to hit their target than drones piloted solely by humans, a Ukraine war researcher reports. Although artificial intelligence-enhanced drones are not fully autonomous, Ukraine sees them as potential game-changers. The technology is rapidly evolving as Kyiv aims to replace soldiers on the battlefield with uncrewed systems, reducing the cost of war in human lives. AI-enabled autonomous drones are a priority. Last September, a Ukrainian drone unit commander said developments in autonomy might soon eliminate the need for drone pilots altogether. Kateryna Bondar, Center for Strategic and International Studies Wadhwani AI Center fellow, wrote in a new report published Thursday that, as of now, the "deployment of AI is partial in scope, enhancing certain functions and addressing some operational challenges rather than enabling full system autonomy." Autonomy in drone navigation and targeting is making a major impact, improving drone strikes and making them three to four times more likely to succeed, or an increase from 10 to 20 percent to around 70 to 80 percent, Bondar said. Ukraine purchased roughly 10,000 AI-enhanced drones in 2024. Overall, it acquired about 2 million drones, meaning that most of the drones Ukraine is using to fight off the Russians are still entirely controlled by human operators. The AI drones are largely limited to final-approach navigation, but they're proving their worth. These systems demand far less skill from pilots, can bypass electronic warfare that could sever the drone's connection to the operator, and reduce the number of drones necessary for mission success. Bondar said only two drones could do what might otherwise take eight or nine. All of this is being expedited by Ukraine's drone developers, who are constantly working on new adaptations in both software and hardware to problems seen on the battlefield. Operations like Ukraine's special drone unit, Typhoon, are also helping to push drone innovation forward across the armed forces. Kyiv's government, too, is pushing for a wider adoption of autonomy and AI, which would allow for continued development and additional purchases. Ukraine has seen particular success in adapting small- and medium-sized first-person-view drones for diverse missions thanks to interchangeable equipment and flexible designs. This ultimately means these drones can shift from surveillance operations to strikes. Interchangeability in hardware and software is key, Ukrainian drone companies have said, in order to make the systems cheap, scalable, and flexible to countermeasures. Bondar noted that Ukraine has been training small AI models on small datasets to avoid overloading the limited processing power available from small, inexpensive chips. Doing so offers the flexibility to adapt quickly to an ever-changing battlespace. There are opportunities in AI. In her report, Bondar said that advancements in AI-enabled automated target recognition have led to drones with the ability to lock onto targets up to two kilometers away in optimal conditions. Unfazed by fatigue or stress, AI also has the potential ability to see through evasion tactics, such as camouflage and decoys that might trick a human eye. These developments will make drone warfare significantly more deadly as the technology advances, making it easier to field and operate at scale for greater effect. True autonomy and artificial intelligence in weapons technology are of interest to top militaries. The US, for instance, has been taking notes on drone warfare in Ukraine, spurring developments in integrating AI and drone technologies. But there are real concerns in this space, ethical worries and fears of creating so-called "killer robots." Bondar wrote that although the Ukrainians seek autonomy to improve operational effectiveness, "engagement decisions remain squarely in the human domain." She said that the "current human-in-the-loop practices allow operators to override autonomous functions, ensuring critical ethical and strategic judgments remain under human control. Read the original article on Business Insider
