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News18
11 hours ago
- Business
- News18
Gold May See 10% Correction In 2 Months And 30% Fall In A Year, Say Experts
Last Updated: Gold prices are not changing despite escalations in Middle East; experts say its rates are likely to have peaked out and may fall from $3,400 to $2,400 in a year if tensions ease. Gold Rate Prediction 2025: After rising nearly 30% this year, gold prices are not changing despite escalations in the Middle East tensions. According to experts, the yellow metal is likely to have peaked out and might see a correction of about 10% in the next one-two months and around 30% in the next one year. Backing up their projections, experts say the bullion markets have already factored in geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, and de-dollarisation. Citibank has revised downwards its gold price target for the next one year. According to its report, Citi has cut its gold rate expectation for the next three months from $3,500 per ounce to $3,300, and for the next 6-12 months to $2,800 as against $3,000 an ounce earlier. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory told CNBC Awaaz, 'In the past 10-20 years, we not seen a situation where simulteneous wars are happening in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea, and still the geopolitical situation is escalating. In seven days of the ongoing Israel-Iran war, gold surged on the first day. But, after that, though tensions have escalated, gold is not reacting. It shows this factor has matured." He, however, said it has been noticed in the past that during such escalations, gold takes a stepback and then makes a recovery. 'For that, gold needs to rise above the $3,500 level in the international market." Currently, spot gold stands at $3,371.15 an ounce in the international market. 'However, whatever story we have heared in the past five years — geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, de-dollarisation; the bullion market has already factored in," he said. 'So, in the next one-two months, gold might see a correction of 8-10% easily. Gold may fall to $2,700-2,800 in the next one year. It might even fall to $2,400 if global tensions ease significantly," Kedia added. The $2,400 is more than 30% down as compared to the current gold price levels. Discussing the impact of higher gold prices on retail market, Shreyansh Kapoor of Kashi Jewellers said rising gold prices are not good sign for the retail market. 'In such a situation, people start selling their old jewellery to take profits. Higher prices also affect wedding budgets." He, however, said it is a good opportunity for those who want to make short-term gains. 'I have never seen so many people coming and selling gold. In my 25 years of experience, I have never seen that so many people are taking out their old jewellery to encash it. Earlier, 5-7% people used to come to sell back their old jewelleries. Now, it is 25%. It includes both exchanging and encashing," Kapoor said. Recently, brokerage house Quant Mutual Fund in its 'Factsheet for June 2025' also said gold has peaked out and might correct by 12-15% in the next two months. 'Gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals," Quant Mutual Fund stated. Gold prices have increased nearly 30% to $3,355 an ounce this calendar year. It had stood at nearly $2,600 as of January 1, 2025. The rates have increased due to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Investor sentiment turned defensive on the back of US President Donald Trump's tariff decisions, rekindling trade war concerns with China. Escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict further strengthened the safe-haven demand.
Mint
30-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Akshaya Tritiya 2025: Gold prices rise over 100% in five years. Is it the right time to buy gold or silver?
Gold prices traded lower on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) Wednesday, tracking a decline in interest bullion prices, pressurised by a firmer US dollar and easing global trade tensions. MCX gold rate fell by over ₹ 500 on Akshaya Tritiya and was trading near ₹ 95,000 per 10 grams level. As Indians celebrate Akshaya Tritiya on April 30, 2025 — a festival synonymous with prosperity and auspicious beginnings — the glitter of gold once again takes centre stage. But for investors, this year's question isn't just about tradition: Is gold still a good investment, or has silver stolen the spotlight? According to data from Kedia Advisory, gold has delivered an impressive CAGR of over 14.85% in the past five years, with prices rising from ₹ 47,677 per 10 grams in April 2020 to ₹ 95,592 in April 2025 — a jump of more than 100%. The latest annual return stands at 31.44%, highlighting the yellow metal's resilience amid global uncertainty. Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, points out that gold price rally — 13% in 2023, 27% in 2024, and already 26% in 2025 — has been driven by a cocktail of macroeconomic factors. These include a weakening US dollar, geopolitical risks, safe-haven buying, and central bank accumulation. However, Trivedi warns that the key tailwinds behind this rally are beginning to fade, suggesting a possible period of consolidation ahead. Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, shares a similar cautionary tone. 'Gold has delivered an impressive return of about 32% since the last Akshaya Tritiya. However, for the year ahead, it is advisable to buy gold only for ceremonial purposes and not with an investment motive, as returns are expected to moderate around 6–7%, in line with inflation,' Kedia said. Kedia attributes this expected gold price cool-off to easing geopolitical tensions — notably between Russia-Ukraine and Iran-US — as well as a shift in trade policies from confrontation to resolution. As a result, Kedia forecasts MCX gold rates could retrace towards ₹ 86,000 – ₹ 87,000 levels. While gold has been on a tear, silver is now emerging as a strong contender for investor attention. From Akshaya Tritiya 2024 to Akshaya Tritiya 2025, silver prices have surged 15.62%, and the five-year CAGR from April 2020 is equally impressive at nearly 20%, thanks to a bumper year in 2021 when prices spiked 69.04%. Ajay Kedia believes silver holds stronger upside potential, driven by robust industrial demand — especially from sectors like solar energy, electronics, and green technologies. 'Buy gold for shubhlabh (auspiciousness), but buy silver for returns,' he advises. Jigar Trivedi echoes this sentiment, citing the gold-silver ratio crossing 100 — well above the historical average of 70 — as a clear sign that silver is significantly undervalued. 'This level implies that either silver is significantly undervalued or that gold has become overvalued. Given the scale of gold's recent appreciation and the potential for increased volatility, a pullback in gold prices or a sharp move higher in silver prices could occur. Our base case is that silver will remain steady or gain further while gold sees some consolidation. In this context, silver offers a more attractive entry point and relative value opportunity,' Trivedi said. Despite expectations of cooling, gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation remains intact. Dr. Sagnik Bagchi, Assistant Professor at the School of Business Management, says, 'Akṣaya Tritiya symbolizes the idea of something that never diminishes, and gold fits that philosophy. It remains a reliable and stable asset, particularly for risk-averse investors.' Bagchi adds that a weakening rupee, accommodative monetary policies, and ongoing global disruptions continue to bolster gold's long-term appeal. If you're buying gold for tradition and emotional value, this Akshaya Tritiya is as good a time as any. However, if you're looking purely from an investment perspective, experts suggest silver may offer better upside in the short to medium term. Metric Gold Silver 1-Year Return (2024–25) 31.44% 15.62% 5-Year CAGR ~14.85% ~20% Expert Outlook Consolidation expected; moderate 6–7% return Likely to outperform; 30% upside possible Ideal Use Safe-haven, traditional purchase Industrial demand, value investment In conclusion, gold continues to offer stability, but silver may be the better bet for those seeking growth. As always, balance is key — diversify wisely and invest with clarity of purpose. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions. First Published: 30 Apr 2025, 01:07 PM IST
