Latest news with #KenGraham
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Residents met with urgent warnings after alarming hurricane season forecast: 'This outlook is a call to action'
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is upon us, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting what it's calling another year of "above-normal hurricane activity." The director of the National Weather Service says it's time to prepare. NOAA officials say a combination of factors — including a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation, above-average ocean temperatures, and weak wind shear — is set to fuel the 60% chance that we'll see an "above-normal" Atlantic hurricane season, according to CBS News. The outlet reported that forecasters may have reason to be even more confident in their predictions this year. A planned upgrade to NOAA's modeling is expected to boost the accuracy of tracking tropical systems and predicting their intensity by around 5%. To improve preparedness and response, NOAA has also expanded its Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from a two-week to a three-week forecast window, the agency said, providing earlier warnings of possible tropical cyclone activity. "In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," said NWS director Ken Graham in a statement, per CBS. "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens." The agency is forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms (compared to an average of around 14) and six to 10 hurricanes (compared to the average of seven). CBS cited Colorado State University as another highly regarded source of hurricane predictions. The university's team concurs that the season will be a busy one, estimating a total of 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes. Even if the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season defies all these expectations and falls short of average, storm experts are quick to their refrain: "It only takes one." And we don't have to think far back at all to find an example of just how destructive a hurricane can be. Hurricane Helene struck the U.S. in late September last year. After the initial damage it inflicted on the Gulf Coast, the storm surged north, bringing strong winds to the Southeast and wringing out historic rainfalls in North Carolina. The storm killed at least 250 people in the U.S., becoming the deadliest hurricane to hit the country's mainland since Katrina in 2005. It also caused financial devastation for many families and municipalities. Scientists have said that the overheating of our planet supercharged Helene, increasing the storm's rainfall by 10% and wind strength by 11%. An analysis of the 2024 hurricane season conducted by Climate Central found that "human-caused global warming" contributed to every named storm last year. What would you do if natural disasters were threatening your home? Move somewhere else Reinforce my home Nothing This is happening already Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. Angela Colbert at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory didn't disagree with this thinking in a 2022 post. "Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall," Colbert wrote, "and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas." Ditching dirty energy sources in favor of clean, renewable options can help cool down our planet and mitigate its effects, like extreme weather events and rising sea levels. A study by researchers at Cornell University has suggested that repurposing only 3.2% of U.S. cropland, currently used to grow corn for ethanol, could result in a more than threefold increase in solar power output nationwide. Learning more about critical climate issues, especially together in affinity groups with the potential for local action, can help normalize the adoption of renewables and facilitate the pro-environment policies that can make scaled-up transition more realizable. Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Conditions are primed for a fierce hurricane season. Here's what Floridians can expect
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Another potentially dangerous hurricane season officially begins Sunday and with forecasters calling for an 'above-average' number of storms, Floridians should have their initial preparations in place soon. We can expect an above-average season over the next six months due to many factors, including hot Atlantic ocean temperatures. It'll be the latest busy season: Last year, Hurricane Helene became the most deadly U.S. hurricane since Katrina, and Hurricane Milton spawned some 43 tornadoes across the state. Floridians must stay vigilant: Our 8,000-mile-plus coast makes us a big target, and the storm-surge death rate is particularly high here. This year, the National Hurricane Center is rolling out new forecast tools to help the public prepare. As the season officially begins this weekend and lasts for six months, here's everything you need to know. This hurricane season is expected to bring more named storms as well as more hurricanes and major hurricanes. As for the odds, there's a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling for 13 to 19 named storms, with sustained winds of 39 mph or more. Colorado State University predicted 17 named storms in its annual spring hurricane outlook. Last year had 18. The average from 1991 to 2020 was 14. Six to 10 of those named storms likely will become hurricanes, with maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater, NOAA said. Last year had 11 hurricanes (the average year has seven), five of which made landfall in the continental U.S., resulting in 297 deaths. NOAA expects three to five major hurricanes, meaning they'll be Category 3 or above with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. CSU hurricane researchers predicted that the 2025 hurricane season will be about 25% more active than the average season. Last season's hurricane season was about 30% more active than the average season. Graham said that three factors inform the forecast: Warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, a lack of wind shear over the region, and a forecast for strong African monsoons, which can roll off the continent and fuel tropical storms once over the Atlantic. 'Everything is in place for an above-average season,' Graham said. The heat behind the forecast: Above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are primary factors for this year's storm season, according to researchers at Colorado State University. Matt Rosencrans, of the National Hurricane Center, said that sea-surface temperatures right now are about as warm as they usually are in late June. But last year at this time they were as warm as they normally would be in August. Hotter-than-normal, sea-surface temperatures work in two ways, according to the researchers. First, they generally fuel hurricane formation. Secondly, when spring sea-surface temperatures are high in the eastern Atlantic, as they are now, it tends to mean weaker trade winds across the Atlantic. Flat, calm water heats up faster — above-average water temperatures will likely continue for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season. 'Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation,' the report said. La Niña and El Niño impacts: NOAA and CSU forecasters also point to a lack of El Niño as being conducive to storms. El Niños usually ramp up wind shear, which can cripple storms. 'Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of a warm Atlantic and the unlikelihood of El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting an above-normal season,' a report said. Since the 1990s, we've been in a 'high-activity era' for hurricanes, said Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center. The background conditions that have driven that trend are warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures. Florida accounted for 410 of the 660 hurricane-related deaths in the U.S. since 2017. As a peninsula with 8,436 miles of shoreline, second only to Alaska, we're a big target. The fatality stats have motivated NOAA to focus on water hazards as much as wind. Nationally, water, both freshwater flooding and saltwater storm surge, has been responsible for 63% of the direct fatalities from hurricanes in the past decade, said Brennan. Wind accounts for only about 20%. Surf and rip currents account for 11%. But Florida is different. Almost half of the direct fatalities are from storm surge. In 2017, NOAA introduced storm-surge warnings. Post-storm indirect deaths, which are nearly as high as direct deaths and affect the elderly more than other groups, stem from car accidents, lack of medical access, recovery accidents, cardiac arrest, heat fatalities and carbon monoxide poisoning from faulty generator use. The National Hurricane Center is rolling out some new forecast features, and making an experimental map operational. Experimental map: Last year it rolled out an experimental, more detailed version of the cone graphic. The detailed version shows inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, because destruction is not limited to the coast. An example of how the detailed version works played out last year when, during Hurricane Helene, nearly the entire state of Florida was covered by hurricane and tropical storm warnings and a hurricane warning that extended hundreds of miles into Georgia. It turned out to be the deadliest U.S. hurricane since Katrina. Rip current risk map: NOAA's National Hurricane Center also is debuting a rip current risk viewer map. Florida has had the most rip current-related deaths of any state since 2013, in part because storms off the east coast can create dangerous swells 1,000 miles away on Florida's beaches, said Brennan. Deadly rip currents on Florida's east coast can occur on an otherwise nice day, he said. Longer lead times: The National Hurricane Center also is offering forecasts with longer lead times. Previously, potential tropical cyclone advisories were released 48 hours prior to expected arrival of impacts. The lead time will now be 72 hours. This means longer lead times when forecasters feel confident that wind and storm surge will significantly impact land areas. A potential tropical cyclone is a disturbance that is not yet a tropical storm with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, but it's strong enough to bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions to land areas. Heat risk: Post-storm deaths can be driven by the combination of hot weather and lack of air conditioning, especially for the elderly. The National Hurricane Center also is launching post-storm heat risk maps that integrate heat forecasts with potential for power loss. Robert Molleda of the NWS's Miami office reminded the public that watches and warnings are more effective than merely concerning oneself with the cone. He said that with storm surge and hurricanes, a watch means hurricane conditions and life-threatening surge are possible within 48 hours. A warning means they are expected within 36 hours. He mentioned that last year, Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on Florida's west coast, spun up 43 known tornadoes, many of which were on the east coast. He said the front right-hand side of a hurricane is where tornadoes can form, even if the eye is 100 or 200 miles away. Any tropical system can cause tornadoes, even weak and disorganized ones. At a hurricane preparedness meeting, Chuck Lanza, director of Broward county office of emergency management, outlined how to make a family emergency plan: —Choose a safe place to meet. —Learn evacuation routes now. —Evacuation does not mean driving upstate, he said. 'You don't have to leave the county, you just have to leave the evacuation zone.' —Establish an out-of-town contact. —Talk to children about what to do before, during and after an emergency. —Make plans for pets. Be prepared to show proof of rabies vaccination for cats and dogs at Broward County shelters, and bring a pet crate if you have one. —Inventory your home with video and photos. Make paper copies of important documents such as birth certificates and insurance policies. —Everyone should have food, water and emergency supplies to last three to five days without power. —You can sign up for Broward County emergency alerts at —If you have questions, call the Broward call center at 311. Graham, of the National Weather Service, encouraged people to take hurricanes seriously. 'There's no such thing as just a Cat 1, just a Cat 2 storm,' he said. 'Even a small storm is a danger.' Now is a good time to prepare for hurricane season, he said. 'There are no lines today.' Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., who recently held a hurricane preparedness meeting in Hallandale Beach, said, 'People absolutely must get ready in advance of the start of hurricane season. You should have your go-kits ready, you should have your 72 hours, really up to a week's worth of supplies already stocked in your home. … Don't wait. That's the bottom line.' Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Axios
3 days ago
- Climate
- Axios
What's new this year from NOAA for hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center will release forecasts and tracks for some storms further in advance than last year, the National Weather Service says. Why it matters: It's one of several changes residents can expect during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The big picture: Meteorologists have been releasing tracks 48 hours before storms are expected to reach land, even if they haven't formed yet. Beginning this year, the National Hurricane Center will be able to extend that to 72 hours for potential storms, said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service. "To get an extra 24 hours on your timeline? Think what you can do in 24 hours," he told Axios in an exclusive interview. "An extra 24 hours is an eternity." For instance, municipalities could use that extra time to issue evacuation orders, move supplies and make emergency plans, among other things, he said. Between the lines: This is becoming more important as the trend continues for rapidly intensifying storms. "The strongest storms are the ones that develop the fastest," Graham said at a press conference in Gretna. Threat level: The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal, NOAA says, with 13 to 19 named storms. Three to five of those could be a Category 3 hurricane or stronger, NOAA said in its forecast last week. The season is not expected to be as active as last year's, which brought destruction from Hurricanes Helene, Milton, Debby and Francine, but as Graham says, it only takes one storm to hit where you are. The forecast predicts overall activity, not how many storms may make landfall. New forecast tools NOAA, the parent agency for the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, is also rolling out new tools to help residents better understand their risks this season. New cone: The National Hurricane Center will continue testing a version of the storm cone that includes inland warnings. The experiment went well last year, Graham said, and they are continuing to tweak it. While the old cone only showed storm watches and warnings along the coast, the new one goes inland and gives a better depiction of where the threats are. Inundation mapping: NOAA is in the process of mapping the entire country so it'll be able to help residents visualize what a rain and flood forecast will look like in their area. Nashville was a pilot market last year, Graham said, and it led to a hospital being evacuated before it flooded during Hurricane Helene. More markets will be added this year, but he didn't say which ones. The nearly $500 million project should be fully rolled out next year. The NHC will continue to issue storm surge inundation graphics this hurricane season for each storm. Rip currents: The National Hurricane Center will issue new rip current risk maps when there's at least one tropical system present. There's been an increase in surf and rip current fatalities, NHC says, especially from swells caused by distant hurricanes. The maps will show the rip current risk for the day of and the following day. Behind the scenes: NOAA is also upgrading its hurricane forecast system, which is expected to improve tracking and intensity forecasts by 5%. And, its long-range tropical outlook is being extended from two weeks to three weeks, giving folks even more advance warning that something may be brewing. What we're watching: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts Sunday, June 1, but storms can form any time. NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic. Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.
Time Out
5 days ago
- Climate
- Time Out
New Yorkers can expect a harsher-than-normal hurricane season this year—here's what to know
Pack an umbrella—and maybe start stockpiling batteries. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just dropped its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, and it's sounding the alarm: New Yorkers, brace for a stormier-than-usual stretch between June 1 and November 30. This year, there's a 60-percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season along the Atlantic coast, with 13 to 19 named storms expected. Of those, six to ten could become hurricanes, and three to five might intensify into major ones, packing winds of 111 mph or higher. Yikes. The culprit is a perfect cocktail of storm-brewing conditions: bathtub-warm Atlantic waters, low wind shear and a feisty West African Monsoon system, which often births the biggest, baddest hurricanes. The usual Atlantic hurricane dampener, El Niño, isn't swooping in to save the day either. We're in a 'neutral' ENSO year, meaning nothing's stopping storms from spinning up. 'This outlook is a call to action: be prepared,' said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. The message is clear: don't wait until a hurricane's on your doorstep to check your flashlights. If this sounds like a rerun of the past few years, well, it kind of is. In 2023, Tropical Storm Ophelia flooded Brooklyn. In 2021, the remnants of Ida turned subways into swimming pools. And who could forget 2012's Sandy, which turned Lower Manhattan into Venice-on-the-Hudson? The good news? NOAA is beefing up its forecasting muscle. This season, storm advisories may come as early as 72 hours before landfall, and a new radar system (nicknamed ROARS) will scan hurricane guts from hurricane hunter planes. There's even an experimental rainfall tracker that could give you a three-day heads-up before flash floods hit. Still, while tech helps, it doesn't replace common sense. Make your prep list now: batteries, water, pet food, backup chargers and yes, more snacks—because in a city where storms can shut down subways and flood entire neighborhoods overnight, being unprepared just isn't an option.
TimesLIVE
5 days ago
- Climate
- TimesLIVE
US scientists forecast above-normal 2025 hurricane season
US government scientists said they expect an above-normal hurricane season in 2025, producing three to five major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 179km/h. The Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1, is forecast to produce 13 to 19 named tropical storms with winds of at least 63km/h, according to the US National Weather Service. Of those storms, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 120km/h or higher. 'Warmer sea surface temperatures are probably the major contributor to this,' said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. Academic and private weather forecasters have issued similar outlooks for the hurricane season, which continues until November 30. Between 1991 and 2020 there have been an average of 14.4 named tropical storms annually in the Atlantic, including on average 3.2 major hurricanes among 7.2 hurricanes. Colorado State University meteorologists said in early April the 2025 hurricane season across the Atlantic basin will be above average, with 17 named tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, of which four are predicted to be major. AccuWeather issued its 2025 hurricane season forecast in late March. The private weather service calls for between three and five major hurricanes out of seven to 10 hurricanes from 13 to 18 named tropical storms. The 2024 hurricane season was one of the costliest on record. There were five major hurricanes, out of a total of 11 hurricanes from 18 named storms. The deaths of 427 people were attributed to 2024's storms and losses totalled $130bn (R2.3-trillion).
