Latest news with #KevinFord
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
This overlooked risk to financial markets usually lurks quietly under the surface. But now it's ‘shouting, not whispering'
Much attention has been focused on the U.S. current account deficit, or the imbalance between imports and export, but there's another metric that's poised to amplify market shocks. That's the net international investment position, according to Kevin Ford, FX and macro strategist at Convera, who likens it to America's financial scorecard with the rest of the world. President Donald Trump's trade war has focused much of Wall Street's attention on the U.S. current account deficit, or the imbalance between imports and exports. But there's another metric worth following that could worsen financial risks. According to Kevin Ford, FX and macro strategist at Convera, the country's net international investment position (NIIP) often gets overlooked. It measures how much the U.S. owns abroad versus how much the world owns in the U.S., he said in a note last week, describing it as America's financial scorecard with the rest of the world. And by that score, the U.S. is in the red by about $26 trillion, or nearly 80% of GDP. 'That means foreign investors hold way more American assets than Americans hold abroad,' Ford added. 'It's a setup that works fine when confidence is high, but in shaky times like 2025, it can become a pressure cooker.' Indeed, times have been shaky. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 10% so far this year as the shock of Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs continues to reverberate, creating doubts about U.S. assets once deemed reliable safe havens. In fact, the dollar's year-to-date plunge is the worst since the U.S. transitioned to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973, effectively ending the post-World War II system of fixed rates under the Bretton Woods agreement. Meanwhile, legislation that would add trillions of dollars to fiscal deficits is advancing in Congress, stirring more anxiety among foreign investors, especially those who hold U.S. debt. Put it all together, and this year has been a textbook example of how a negative NIIP profile can magnify currency turmoil, Ford warned. 'And because so much of the capital propping up the U.S. financial system comes from abroad, even small shifts in sentiment can lead to big outflows,' he added. 'That's a lot of dollars being sold, and fewer being bought, and voilà, the greenback stumbles.' Circling back to the financial scorecard analogy, Ford explained that the problem with focusing on the current account deficit is that it only shows the flow of transactions, i.e. imports versus exports. By contrast, the NIIP shows the overall pile of debts—and ignoring that would be like judging a person's spending habits without checking their credit card balance, he said, making trust 'your most important asset.' 'Yes, trade deficits, interest rates, and Fed signals all play a role, but the NIIP tells you just how exposed the U.S. is when things go sideways,' Ford concluded. 'It's the quiet structural risk lurking under the surface, ready to amplify shocks. And in a year like this, it's been shouting, not whispering.' Waning confidence in the dollar has spurred investors and central banks around the world to load up on gold, which has soared in price in recent years and particularly this year, surging 21% in 2025. Trump's unrelenting pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates has also weakened the dollar lately. While many on Wall Street see even more downside potential ahead for the dollar, the AI boom that's still drawing billions in global investment flows to the U.S. offers some hope for relief. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The bond market is worrying that ‘something may be breaking beneath the surface' of Trump's tax bill
President Trump's 'big beautiful bill,' featuring tax cuts and increased spending, has rattled bond markets due to fears it will sharply increase U.S. national debt. Wall Street analysts are now questioning America's status as a financial safe haven. But stocks are relatively calm this morning. Global stock markets were relatively quiet this morning prior to the opening bell in New York. But the calm is an eerie one — all eyes are on the bond market, which is signalling, loudly, that it does not like President Trump's 'big beautiful bill' because it will likely increase the U.S. national debt. The bill has passed the House and is now heading to the Senate. The Treasury Department's auction of $16 billion in new 20-year bonds should have been routine. But the yield on those Treasuries (the amount investors demand for buying the bonds) rose from 4.6% to 5.05% — a signal that the market is very much not in the mood for more U.S. debt. 'These auctions typically don't make headlines, but this one sparked investor concerns about growing uncertainty in U.S. economic policy—particularly whether the market can absorb the refinancing of nearly $3 trillion in U.S. debt maturing in 2025,' Convera's Kevin Ford told clients in a note seen by Fortune this morning. 'While the 20-year bond isn't as liquid as other maturities, the lack of demand raised red flags in the market.' Saxo Bank's Charu Chanana agreed: 'The bond market is sending out distress flares. Yields are climbing—but instead of strengthening the U.S. dollar, they are coinciding with a weaker USD. For investors, this isn't a vote of confidence in U.S. growth. It's a sign that something may be breaking beneath the surface.' Bond analysts don't normally write stuff like this. Bond trading is supposed to be boring. Their vocal worrying is triggered by the progression of President Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' from the House to the Senate. The tax cuts and spending in the bill would increase U.S. national debt to 134% of GDP, according to Moody's, which recently downgraded the quality of that debt. 'People are getting fed up. It's clear that there are no adults in the room in Washington. Zero. No accountability,' John Fath of BTG Pactual Asset Management, told Bloomberg. 'You have to ask yourself, what is it going to take? It's going to be the price action.' Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer at asset manager Amundi, told the Financial Times: 'The US is no longer the ultimate and only perceived safe haven … The country has become the home of extreme fiscal undiscipline.' Even the calm voices are predicting macro doom. 'With very rare exceptions, the Moody's downgrade of US debt should have no impact on the ability of institutional investors to continue to own US Treasury bonds,' Lotfi Karoui and her team at Goldman Sachs told clients. 'We are, of course, mindful that the combined effect of a challenging fiscal outlook and the upcoming stagflationary shock from tariffs will likely continue to put a floor on the term premium. But a material slowdown in growth would, in our view, eventually push yields lower.' Here's a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York: The S&P 500 closed flat at 5,842.01 yesterday. Coinbase rose 5% on the day, buoyed by investor enthusiasm around the president's 'crypto dinner.' S&P futures were flat this morning prior to the open. Bond yields spiked on worries about the fiscal stability of the U.S. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.63% and the 30-year Treasury hit 5.15%. India's Nifty 50 was up 1% this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.5%. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early trading. This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks haven't risen this fast in over 40 years—and CEOs are happy about it
S&P 500 futures traded up 0.3% this morning, premarket after the index rose 0.41% yesterday. The speed of its 15% gain since its low point on April 8 hasn't been matched since 1982. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.57% in early trading. But Asia was mixed. Investors appear to be buoyed by positive data on inflation and shipping. Stock markets appear to be holding onto their recent gains today after the S&P 500 rose 0.23% yesterday. S&P futures were up 0.3% this morning. The index is up 0.6% year to date, but that masks the scale of the recent rally: Stocks haven't risen this far, this fast, in over 40 years. 'The last time the S&P 500 erased a 15% year-to-date decline in under six weeks was back in 1982,' Kevin Ford of Convera told clients in a note this morning. Asia was mixed this morning. Japan was flat. China was down 0.5%. Korea was marginally up and India was slightly down. Investors have reason to be optimistic. The hard data shows that the paralysis caused by President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs is easing after the program was put on hold for 90 days. Freight shipping into the U.S. is poised to increase again, according to Project44, a supply chain platform. 'Following the steep tariffs introduced the week of April 7th, blank sailings spiked by 400% for the week of April 28th. However, blank sailings have steadily declined since that peak and are expected to remain low as export volumes rise in response to the tariff rollback,' the company said. (A 'blank sailing' occurs when a ship's scheduled route is either cancelled or a port of call skipped due to lack of demand.) U.S. retail sales were upbeat, also. 'Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March,' Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen told their clients in a research note. 'But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest. A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too.' JPMorgan held a conference of tech CEOs and found them to be in relatively cheerful mood: 'Most CEOs and CFOs we hosted at the conference are feeling more confident about the macro outlook following the step down in tariffs on China earlier this week. ... Nevertheless, a minority of executives were still concerned about customers pausing for the final state of tariffs before making large capital decisions,' JPM's Samik Chatterjee told clients in a note seen by Fortune. Here's a snapshot of today's action prior to the opening bell in New York: The S&P 500 rose 0.41% yesterday. The index is up 0.6% YTD. S&P futures traded up 0.3% this morning, premarket. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.57% in early trading. Asia was mixed: Japan was flat. China was down 0.5%. Korea was marginally up and India was slightly down. Coinbase fell 7.2% yesterday after traders took profits from a 20% runup over the last five days. Bitcoin was sitting above $103,000 this morning. This story was originally featured on
Associated Press
14-05-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Calian Reports Results for the Second Quarter
(All amounts in release are in Canadian dollars) OTTAWA, Ontario, May 14, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Calian® Group Ltd. (TSX:CGY), a mission critical solutions company, with a focus on defence, space, healthcare and strategic growth markets, today released its results for the second quarter ended March 31, 2025. 'Our consolidated second quarter results reflect momentum in some areas, whilst challenging headwinds in others,' said Kevin Ford, Calian CEO. 'Our defence solutions in both North America and Europe grew by 13%, highlighting the increasing need for global security and operational readiness. Our ITCS business saw a more challenging environment due to slower customer demand, and one-time investments we have made to re-position our offerings for long-term growth.' Q2-25 Highlights: 'Given ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as limited visibility and timing of key opportunities in the ITCS segment, we have made the decision to withdraw our guidance. Despite this, we remain confident in the future growth of Calian given strong momentum in signings, our backlog of close to $1.4 billion, including AMS, optimism around defence spending and a robust M&A pipeline - underscored by our most recent acquisition of AMS.' 1 This is a non-GAAP measure. Please refer to the section 'Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to most comparable IFRS measures' at the end of this press release. 2 Certain comparative figures have been reclassified to align with the current year's presentation. For more information, please see the selected consolidated financial information section of the management discussion and analysis. Access the full report on the Calian Financials web page. Register for the conference call on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Second Quarter Results Revenues decreased 4%, from $201 million to $194 million. Acquisitive growth was 4% and was generated by the acquisitions of the nuclear assets from MDA Ltd and Mabway completed last year. Organic growth was down 8% primarily due to reductions in the ITCS segment, partially offset by 51% organic growth in nuclear services, GNSS antenna products and defence solutions. Gross margin stood at 33.4% slightly down compared to the same period last year and it represents the 12th quarter above the 30% mark. Adjusted EBITDA1 stood at $17 million, down 36% from $27 million last year, due to revenue slow downs in the current year, combined with a slight decrease in margin percentage, and investments made in selling and marketing efforts to build pipeline for future years. In the United States macro-economic uncertainty resulted in more cautious customer behavior and the Canadian election one month prior to our quarter end did impact the timing of revenues. As a result, adjusted EBITDA1 margin decreased to 9.0%, from 13.5% last year. Net profit decreased to $0.3 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, from $4.9 million, or $0.41 per diluted share last year. This decrease in profitability is primarily due to investments in our selling capacity, amortization and deemed compensation expenses related to acquisitions. Adjusted net profit1 was $11.1 million, or $0.93 per diluted share, down from $19.0 million, or $1.58 per diluted share last year. 1 This is a non-GAAP measure. Please refer to the section 'Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to most comparable IFRS measures' at the end of the press release. Liquidity and Capital Resources 'In the second quarter we generated $10 million in operating free cash flow1, representing a 56% conversion rate from adjusted EBITDA1,' said Patrick Houston, Calian CFO. 'We used our cash and a portion of our credit facility to make capital expenditure investments for $2 million. We also provided a return to shareholders in the form of dividends for $3 million and share buybacks for $4 million. We ended the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA1 ratio of 0.7x, well-positioned to pursue our growth objectives,' concluded Mr. Houston. 1 This is a non-GAAP measure. Please refer to the section 'Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to most comparable IFRS measures' at the end of the press release. Normal Course Issuer Bid In the three-month period ended March 31, 2025, the Company repurchased 93,900 shares for cancellation in consideration of $4.4 million. For the six-month period ended March 31, 2025, the Company repurchased 195,250 shares for cancellation in consideration of $9.3 million. For the remainder of the fiscal year, the Company plans on accelerating its share buybacks by combining daily repurchases with block trades. Its intention is to repurchase up to 6% of the Company's public float as defined at the time of the NCIB announcement on August 16, 2024. Appointed New Regional VP of Defence for Europe, U.K. and NATO On January 23, 2025, Calian announced the appointment of Major-General (Ret.) Roch Pelletier to the role of Regional Vice President (RVP) Global Defence & Security. This newly created role addresses the growth of Calian's defence business, driven by increased global military spending, geopolitical instability and the rising demand for advanced technologies. This appointment will advance Calian's strategic business development, strengthen relationships with stakeholders, and provide operational support to drive growth and efficiencies within the region. Appointed New Board Member On April 24, 2025, Calian announced the appointment of Eric Demirian to its Board of Directors. Demirian is currently chair of Descartes and a director of IMAX Corporation. He has held board and audit committee roles at a number of public and private companies including Enghouse. With the recent additions of Josh Blair and Lisa Greatrix in February, the appointment of Demirian brings the total number of board members to 10, of which nine are independent and half are women. Completed the Acquisition of Advanced Medical Solutions On May 14, 2025, Calian acquired Advanced Medical Solutions (AMS), a leading provider of remote and emergency healthcare services in Northern Canada. Headquartered in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories (NWT), AMS is a Canadian-owned company that specializes in the delivery of 24/7/365 operational and medical support across Canada's northern regions, including the NWT, Yukon, Nunavut and parts of Canada's northern provinces. Founded in 1995, the company employs over 300 frontline medical personnel who deliver well-rounded, full-spectrum healthcare services through six distinct divisions. Quarterly Dividend On May 13, 2025, Calian declared a quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share. The dividend is payable June 10, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 27, 2025. Dividends paid by the Company are considered 'eligible dividend' for tax purposes. About Calian We keep the world moving forward. Calian® helps people communicate, innovate, learn and lead safe and healthy lives. Every day, our employees live our values of customer commitment, integrity, innovation, respect and teamwork to engineer reliable solutions that solve complex challenges. That's Confidence. Engineered. A stable and growing 40-year company, we are headquartered in Ottawa with offices and projects spanning North American, European and international markets. Visit to learn about innovative healthcare, communications, learning and cybersecurity solutions. Product or service names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. Media inquiries: [email protected] 613-599-8600 Investor Relations inquiries: [email protected] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER Certain information included in this press release is forward-looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties. The results or events predicted in these statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Such statements are generally accompanied by words such as 'intend', 'anticipate', 'believe', 'estimate', 'expect' or similar statements. Factors which could cause results or events to differ from current expectations include, among other things: the impact of price competition; scarce number of qualified professionals; the impact of rapid technological and market change; loss of business or credit risk with major customers; technical risks on fixed price projects; general industry and market conditions and growth rates; international growth and global economic conditions, and including currency exchange rate fluctuations; and the impact of consolidations in the business services industry. For additional information with respect to certain of these and other factors, please see the Company's most recent annual report and other reports filed by Calian with the Ontario Securities Commission. Calian disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. No assurance can be given that actual results, performance or achievement expressed in, or implied by, forward-looking statements within this disclosure will occur, or if they do, that any benefits may be derived from them. Calian · Head Office · 770 Palladium Drive · Ottawa · Ontario · Canada · K2V 1C8 Tel: 613.599.8600 · Fax: 613-592-3664 · General info email: [email protected] Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures to Most Comparable IFRS Measures These non-GAAP measures are mainly derived from the consolidated financial statements, but do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS; therefore, others using these terms may calculate them differently. The exclusion of certain items from non-GAAP performance measures does not imply that these are necessarily nonrecurring. From time to time, we may exclude additional items if we believe doing so would result in a more transparent and comparable disclosure. Other entities may define the above measures differently than we do. In those cases, it may be difficult to use similarly named non-GAAP measures of other entities to compare performance of those entities to the Company's performance. Management believes that providing certain non-GAAP performance measures, in addition to IFRS measures, provides users of the Company's financial reports with enhanced understanding of the Company's results and related trends and increases transparency and clarity into the core results of the business. Adjusted EBITDA excludes items that do not reflect, in our opinion, the Company's core performance and helps users of our MD&A to better analyze our results, enabling comparability of our results from one period to another. Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted Net Profit and Adjusted EPS Operating Free Cash Flow Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Operating free cash flow measures the company's cash profitability after required capital spending when excluding working capital changes. The Company's ability to convert adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow is critical for the long term success of its strategic growth. These measurements better align the reporting of our results and improve comparability against our peers. We believe that securities analysts, investors and other interested parties frequently use non-GAAP measures in the evaluation of issuers. Management also uses non-GAAP measures in order to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period to period, prepare annual operating budgets and assess our ability to meet our capital expenditure and working capital requirements. Non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for or be considered in isolation from measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Investors are encouraged to review our financial statements and disclosures in their entirety and are cautioned not to put undue reliance on non-GAAP measures and view them in conjunction with the most comparable IFRS financial measures. The Company has reconciled adjusted profit to the most comparable IFRS financial measure as shown above. 1 Certain comparative figures have been reclassified to align with the current year's presentation. For more information, please see the selected quarterly financial information section of the management discussion and analysis.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Markets react with unbridled joy to tariff reductions—although HSBC warns of ‘bumpier' road ahead
There was an almost universally positive reaction across global stock markets yesterday and today to the White House's announcement that tariff levels in the U.S.-China trade war would be reduced for 90 days. Indexes in China and Japan closed up and Europe rose in early trading as well. A research note from HSBC warned, "things could easily turn out a bit bumpier in future trade negotiations." The S&P 500 index closed up 3.26% yesterday and it nearly erased its losses for the year. It is still down 0.64% year to date, however. This morning, S&P futures contracts ticked lower, indicating that investors broadly expect others to sell when the market opens in America. Nonetheless, for those holding U.S. equities this feels like a victory—most of the losses from the Trump Administration have now been erased. However, once you have finished your champagne, it is worth remembering that the S&P remains 5% below its peak in February. And U.S. stocks remain far behind their foreign counterparts. The S&P still isn't in positive territory for the year so far, but the Stoxx Europe 600 is up 7%, China's CSO 300 is up 2%, South Korea's Kospi is up 8.73%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 18%. Wall Street analysts used the tariff news to reset their expectations for stocks going forward. 'Just a few months ago, a 30% tariff rate on China would have seemed extreme. Now, those levels are fueling one of the biggest equity market rallies in recent history, with the S&P posting its strongest 22-day surge since 2020,' Kevin Ford at Convera told his clients in a note. Goldman Sachs was even more bullish: 'We raise our S&P 500 return and earnings forecasts to incorporate lower tariff rates, better economic growth, and less recession risk than we previously expected. Our new 3- and 12-month returns forecasts are +1% and +11%, indicating levels of 5900 and 6500 (previously 5700 and 6200). Our 6-month return forecast, corresponding with year-end 2025, is +4% to 6100 (previously 5900),' David Kostin and his team. HSBC was a little more cautious. 'There's very clearly upside risk for the broader risk asset spectrum now as markets will likely extrapolate a higher likelihood of further deals in the coming weeks. These may not move in a straight line. Things could easily turn out a bit bumpier in future trade negotiations - but clearly the US administration has altered its tone such that future episodes of weakness should be used as buying opportunities, in our view,' Max Kettner and team told their clients. The hard data on U.S. company earnings is—so far—bearing them out. 'With 87% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 72% have beaten 1Q earnings (vs. 74% avg. last 4Qs, see Figure 1) and 57% are beating revenue estimates (vs. 60%),' JPMorgan Chase told clients in a research note from Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and his colleagues. Here's a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York: The S&P 500 index went up 3.26% yesterday and it nearly erased its losses for the year (it is still down 0.64% YTD). S&P futures contracts on the index ticked lower this morning premarket—an indicator that some investors predict there will be some profit-taking selling when the markets open in New York. The Composite rose 4.35% (but is still down 3% YTD). Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.43% this morning. China's CSI 300 closed up 0.15%. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.21% in early trading. Bitcoin is sitting above $102,000. This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
