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The Diplomat
a day ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
How Iran Sees the China-US Trade War
As the expiration date for the truce in the trade war between the United States and China approaches, policymakers in Tehran see both immediate risks and potential long-term opportunities for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is demonstrated in analysis produced by the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations (SCFR), an entity tasked with advising Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on diplomatic affairs. Although not a decision-making body, the SCFR can indicate the direction of Iranian policymaking, due to its proximity to Khamenei's office and the involvement of key loyalists to the Supreme Leader, including former presidential contender Saeed Jalili. In its assessments of the China-U.S. trade war, the SCFR reveals how the Islamic Republic sees the rift between Washington and Beijing, while having little ability to influence its outcome. Amid international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, Iran has expanded its engagement with China. In recent years, China emerged as a critical economic partner for Iran – receiving up to 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, according to some reports. While the United States has sought to curtail these trade links, evasive shipping practices, avoidance of dollar transactions, and the use of 'teapot' refineries have enabled Iran and China to bypass sanctions. This has offered the Islamic Republic a crucial economic lifeline. Their partnership was formalized under a broader 25-year cooperation agreement between Tehran and Beijing signed in 2021. Outside of the energy sector, Iran's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has facilitated Chinese infrastructure and utilities investment. In the wake of conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation has also emerged that Iran could bolster its security ties to China, especially amid military setbacks and apparent frustrations with Russia. The U.S. has sought to counter Iran's movement toward China, especially under the Trump administration, as a means of enhancing leverage over the Islamic Republic. During the past several months, Washington has moved to sanction entities involved in transporting and refining Iranian oil for the Chinese market. In the short term, upholding the status quo between the U.S. and China would be in Iran's interest, either by Beijing and Washington maintaining the interim tariff reduction deal or reaching a more permanent settlement. According to SCFR analysis, a reinvigorated China-U.S. trade war could harm Iran's economic lifeline, by reducing China's demand for production inputs like oil. Given its dependence on the Chinese market, this would have significant ramifications for Iran's already weak economy. It would also intensify inflation and weaken Iranian foreign currency reserves, both of which have been recurrent issues for the Islamic Republic's monetary system. Compounding these factors, diminished exports to China would strengthen sanctions enforcement by the West, which the Islamic Republic has failed to significantly alleviate via diplomatic means. As Iran seeks to regain its footing ahead of renewed competition with Israel, these pressures could undermine efforts to curb domestic dissent and replenish its military forces, leading to wider strategic challenges. Iran also sees opportunity in the China-U.S. trade war, as a potential disruption to the existing international order. In particular, the potential long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar could support Iran's strategic interests. As noted by one SCFR publication, reducing the dollar's dominance as the world reserve currency would diminish the efficacy of sanctions and relative U.S. economic power. This would dovetail with efforts by the Islamic Republic to support other global 'de-dollarization' initiatives, including the formation of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization bank and the expansion of the BRICS New Development Bank. Nevertheless, the SCFR may be overly optimistic on the prospects of de-dollarization, as a clear alternative has yet to emerge. Additionally, the SCFR claims that China could seek to develop new export markets in the Middle East, including Iran, necessitating a stronger economic and diplomatic push in the region. This would be to Iran's advantage, as it could entail further Chinese investment and non-oil trade, both of which the Islamic Republic has consistently pursued. That said, Chinese direct investment in Iran has been limited thus far. It is also to China's advantage that Iran is economically weak and isolated, as it enables the import of Iranian oil at a significant discount. Despite limited influence over the situation, the SCFR asserts that the China-U.S. trade war must be 'optimally utilized' to Iran's advantage. In particular, it identifies 'global polarization' and economic uncertainty as factors that could create opportunities for deepening trade relations with other developing states. Specifically, Brazil and India are highlighted as potential import partners, with the potential to reduce Iran's dependence upon any single patron. However, it is unlikely that either could match China's energy demand. Furthermore, much of Iran's success in diversifying commercial relations has come through states such as Belarus and Serbia, which are unlikely to import Iranian oil in significant amounts, despite offering certain opportunities. Overall, the SCFR's assessment reflects a lack of options for the Islamic Republic to proactively shape the situation to its advantage. This further indicates that the status quo may be Tehran's preferred outcome, for the time being. In sum, the SCFR's perspective on the China-U.S. trade war reveals a reactive posture. This is marked by an effort to preserve the Islamic Republic's current advantages while seeking new openings amid global economic shifts, primarily designed to erode and challenge U.S. influence. Still, Iran's ability to capitalize on these developments remains constrained by structural weaknesses, international isolation, and its growing dependence on its energy exports to China. As such, Tehran's strategic calculus ultimately hinges on maintaining regime resilience, while seeking space to balance and maneuver within broader great power competition.
Wall Street Journal
2 days ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Iran Is Out to Assassinate Trump
Tehran can't stop. Not a day goes by in which Iranian religious or political officials don't threaten the life of President Trump. As long as the regime lives, so will the threat. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini made clear 40 years ago that when Iranian mobs chant 'Death to America,' it means they want to kill the U.S. president. His successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, restated the point: ' 'Death to America' means death to Trump.' Mr. Trump constitutes a unique threat to the mullahs because he has actually used American military might to punish the regime for its behavior.
News18
3 days ago
- Politics
- News18
Iran's Khamenei Calls Israel 'Cancerous Tumour', Labels US An Accomplice In 'Crimes'
Ayatollah Khamenei criticized the US and Israel, calling Tel Aviv a "cancerous tumour". Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched a blistering verbal attack on both the United States and Israel, calling Tel Aviv a 'cancerous tumour" and describing the country as Washington's 'dog on a leash". Ayatollah Khamenei also accused US of being a direct accomplice in what he described as Israeli 'crimes" committed during last month's 12-day war between Tehran and Tel Aviv. In remarks broadcast by Iranian state media, Ayatollah Khamenei claimed that Iran dealt a significant blow to America during the conflict and warned of far more severe retaliation if military operations were to resume. He said, 'The site we targeted was among the most sensitive American centers in the region. Once the media censorship is lifted, it will be clear how serious the blow was. And of course, an even greater blow can be dealt to the US and others." The war, which began on June 13 following an Israeli strike aimed at halting Iran's nuclear program, escalated rapidly into a regional conflict. Over 12 days, Israel targeted Iranian nuclear scientists, military commanders and infrastructure, resulting in at least 1,060 deaths according to Iranian officials. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks, killing at least 28 people in Israel. 'Fighting against the US and its dog on a leash, the Zionist regime, is praiseworthy," Khamenei said as he emphasized that Iran retains the capacity to respond more forcefully than it already has. The war also disrupted diplomatic efforts around Iran's nuclear program as talks between Tehran and Washington, previously mediated by Oman, have been suspended indefinitely. Iranian officials said this week that there is 'no specific date" for resuming discussions. view comments First Published: July 16, 2025, 19:45 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Khamenei's First Public Appearance on Ashura After Iran-Israel War
Khamenei's First Public Appearance on Ashura After Iran-Israel War | Vantage with Palki Sharma Khamenei's First Public Appearance on Ashura After Iran-Israel War | Vantage with Palki Sharma Iranians on July 6 marked Ashura by mourning the death of Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein during the Battle of Karbala. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei made his first public appearance after the end of the 12-day war with Israel as he attended prayers at a mosque in Tehran ahead of Ashura processions. Also on Vantage Shots: - Indonesian volcano spews ash over 11 kilometres into the sky - Pakistan, a pet lion attacks people on the streets - after escaping from captivity - This day in history: In 1985, 17-year-old German sensation Boris Becker became the youngest male player to win Wimbledon. This record still holds to this day. Becker's fast-paced serve and volley game earned him the nickname "Boom, boom, Boris". See More
India Today
4 days ago
- Business
- India Today
Khamenei warns of 'even bigger blow' to US and Israel if attacked again
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has once again warned the United States and Israel amid rising pressure on Tehran over its nuclear activities. Speaking on state television Wednesday, Khamenei said, "The fact that our nation is ready to face the power of the United States and its dog on a leash, the Zionist regime, is very praiseworthy."Khamenei referred to Iran's strike on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, saying it was "just the beginning" and warned that "an even bigger blow could be inflicted on the US and others." His comments came the West continue to push for fresh nuclear negotiations while also considering the possibility of reimposing sanctions on MISSILE STRENGTH STILL A CONCERNDespite recent Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities -- including a destructive hit on the Fordow nuclear site in June -- US intelligence has assessed that while Iran's nuclear ambitions may be delayed by up to two years, its missile and drone capabilities remain mostly intact. According to Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD) and editor of the Long War Journal, Iran still possesses around 1,500 medium-range ballistic missiles and roughly 50 percent of its launch SAYS HE'S 'IN NO RUSH TO TALK'Amid ongoing tensions, US President Donald Trump has adopted a cautious tone on the issue. Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Trump said he remains open to negotiations but added, "I'm in no rush to talk."NUCLEAR TALKS UNCERTAIN AS SANCTIONS THREATENMeanwhile, Western nations have made it clear that if Iran fails to make progress on talks with the US by the end of the summer, they may activate the "snapback" sanctions — a provision under the 2015 nuclear deal allowing the re-imposition of international sanctions if Iran fails to Foreign Ministry told Fox News Digital, "A sustainable and verifiable diplomatic solution that addresses the security interests of the international community is essential. If such a solution is not achieved by the end of the summer, the snapback mechanism will remain an option for the E3."The E3 refers to France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — the three European countries involved in the 2015 nuclear agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). "We continue to coordinate closely with our E3 partners on this issue," the German ministry added.- EndsWith inputs from ReutersMust Watch
