Latest news with #KindlebergerSpiral
Economist
08-05-2025
- Business
- Economist
What happens when a hegemon falls?
The 'Kindleberger Spiral', a graph of world trade between 1929 and 1933, looks like water circling a drain, or a small animal curling up into a ball. It was produced by Charles Kindleberger, an economic historian, in 'The World in Depression', a book published in 1973, and has recently enjoyed a new lease of life as a demonstration of the self-harm that protectionism inflicts. From month to month, Kindleberger charted how the global economy turned in on itself throughout the late-1920s and 1930s, spiralling towards disaster. Another idea from his work—the 'Kindleberger gap', referring to a leadership void—is also proving helpful.
Bloomberg
07-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Does Kindleberger's Spiral Predict Economic Depressions?
When fears of crisis loom, some people reach for the Kindleberger Spiral. The original was a wonky, awkwardly scaled spiderweb showing the collapse of global trade from 1929 to 1933, accelerating after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by the US Congress in June 1930 — in tandem with the Great Depression. Even updated (below), it still has an ominous look: a swirling whoosh of water being sucked down a drain — which makes it troublingly evocative right now with President Donald Trump arbitrarily carpet-tariffing the world, and bringing chaos to stock markets everywhere. The chart, however, is less a schematic than an entry point into a more complex story. The tariffs didn't cause the Great Depression — but the work of the economist behind the spiral still has a serious warning for today. It is all about America's role in the world.
