4 days ago
South Korea is electing a new president: what happens next?
Millions of Koreans went to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new president.
The snap poll was called after the impeachment and removal of previous president Yoon Suk-yeol over his failed martial law bid last December.
While there were five candidates, the clear frontrunners were Lee Jae-myung, 61, of the Democratic Party and 73-year-old Kim Moon-soo, a hardline conservative.
Lee Jae-myung is the favourite to win the election. ( Reuters: Kim Hong-Ji )
Who is likely to win?
Mr Lee was the driving force behind an opposition-led campaign to oust Mr Yoon. In Gallup Korea surveys released in the week leading up to Tuesday's poll, 46 to 49 per cent of respondents picked Mr Lee as their choice for the next president, giving him a comfortable lead over Mr Kim with 35 to 37 per cent.
When will we know the result?
Polls close at 8pm local time (9pm AEST) with a result expected a few hours later. Turnout has so far been strong and looks to have exceeded the previous election in 2022.
Kim Moon-soo greets supporters at his final campaign rally in Seoul. ( Reuters: Go Nakamura )
What were the key issues?
Unlike past elections, North Korea's nuclear program hasn't emerged as a hot-button topic, suggesting that most candidates share a view that South Korea has few immediate ways to convince the North to abandon its nuclear weapons. Dealing with US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs policy hasn't been a divisive issue either.
Instead, things got personal, with the campaign marred by individual attacks and petty disputes, drowning out meaningful policy debate.
Mr Kim focused on dredging up Mr Lee's legal troubles and casting him as a dangerous, hardline populist whose economic promises are detached from reality. Mr Kim, meanwhile, had avoided overt criticism of Mr Yoon over his martial law decree, giving Mr Lee plenty of ammunition.
Does the election signal a return to stability for Korea?
In the short term, yes, said Professor Andy Jackson, convenor of the Korean Studies program at Monash University. He said there may be a brief honeymoon period where the Korean public will look to see how the incoming president does.
'But after this wait and see period, you can expect a return to some of the bitter protests that characterised the rules of the previous presidents Yoon Seuk-yeol and Park Geun-hye,' Professor Jackson said.
'The people are unafraid to take to the streets if they feel their voices are not being heard. Protests and rallies are a daily occurrence and with the right catalyst - like the martial law fiasco, the Park Geun-hye corruption scandal, and the government's mishandling of the 2014 Sewol ferry disaster - these protests can turn massive and help to unseat incumbent presidents.''
Professor Jackson said whoever gets in, the public will be watching very carefully for signs of corruption.
Competing campaign banners decorate the streets of Seoul. ( Reuters: Go Nakamura )
What is the biggest immediate challenge for the new president?
The most pressing domestic issue facing the new president will be dealing with a deeply divided nation that had seen millions rallying for months to either support or denounce Mr Yoon.
Mr Yoon had labelled Mr Lee's party as 'anti-state' forces abusing their legislative majority to block his agenda. He also endorsed unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that the liberals had benefited from election fraud, prompting his supporters to rally in the streets with 'Stop the Steal' signs.
Mr Lee has issued a message of unity and vowed not to seek political vengeance against his rivals if elected. But his critics doubt that, suspecting Mr Lee could use investigations of Mr Yoon's martial law decree as a vehicle to suppress his opponents.
Mr Yoon's legal saga is likely to overshadow the early months of Seoul's next government, as the former president continues to stand trial on high stakes rebellion charges, which carry a possible sentence of death or life in prison.
Yoon Suk Yeol has always denied wrongdoing over his decision to enact martial law last year. ( AP Photo: Lee Jin-man )
Another challenge is that many of the candidates themselves are under scrutiny and they haven't even taken power, said Professor Jackson.
"Lee Jae-myung is deeply distrusted by many on the left as well as on the right. Many traditional progressives voted for Mr Yoon originally because they saw him as the lesser of two evils compared to Lee in the last election,' he said.
'Kim Moon-soo comes from a leftist background but shifted hard to the right and was involved in corruption scandals as governor of Gyeonggi Province. Whichever of the candidates wins, they will have to work hard to endear themselves to the public in the months ahead.''
What are the geopolitical challenges?
The next president will have little time to negotiate with the United States before July 9, when Mr Trump's 90-day pause on global tariffs expires, potentially exposing South Korean products to 25 per cent tax rates. A US federal court has recently ruled that Mr Trump lacks authority to impose the tariffs, but the White House has appealed, leaving the long-term outcome unclear.
South Korea's outgoing administration was trying to finalise a comprehensive 'package' deal with the US by early July to soften the blow to the country's trade-dependent economy.
Mr Lee has accused government officials of rushing negotiations for short-term political gains and said it wouldn't serve national interests to obsess over securing an early agreement with Washington. Mr Kim said he would place a priority on a meeting with Mr Trump as soon as possible to resolve trade issues.
South Korean soldiers wait in a line to cast their vote in Nonsan, South Korea. ( Yonhap image via Reuters )
The next government in Seoul may also struggle to ease security tensions over North Korea's advancing nuclear weapons program, which has been complicated by North Korea's support of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Mr Lee has expressed a willingness to improve ties with North Korea but acknowledged that it would be difficult to hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un anytime soon. He said he would support Mr Trump's push to resume nuclear diplomacy with North Korea.
Kim Moon-soo has promised to build up South Korea's military capability and win stronger US security support, suggesting he would uphold Mr Yoon's hard-line approach on North Korea.
Professor Jackson said Mr Trump's tariffs could be a problem but 'given the situation of an aggressive [North Korean] regime, I would imagine the Trump administration would try to stabilise relationships with the South''.
'This is the default position. I don't think Trump will want to upset the apple cart in this way.''
ABC/wires
