Latest news with #Kotak
Mint
18 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market may stay range-bound amid rich valuations and global uncertainty, warns Kotak
The Indian stock market has been trading in a consolidation range for the past few weeks, and this range-bound movement is expected to persist in the coming months. According to domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities, rich valuations, ongoing weakness in domestic consumption and investment demand, along with global geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, may keep the Indian stock market range-bound over the next few months. The brokerage notes that expensive valuations across sectors and stocks, domestic growth headwinds across consumption, investment, and outsourcing sectors, and global growth and inflation challenges are likely to act as headwinds for the Indian stock market. Kotak finds that valuations have remained elevated across several sectors and stocks despite meaningful earnings downgrades. This, as per the brokerage, suggests that the market does not care about valuations and/or the market does not care about earnings. "In our view, this nonchalant attitude perhaps reflects the market's confidence in retail investors sustaining their hitherto price-agnostic purchases of stocks through mutual funds and FPIs staying positive on Indian equities based on a 'narrative' of a lack of alternatives in EMs," said the brokerage. At a broader level, Kotak's analysis shows that valuations are higher than pre-pandemic levels despite significantly elevated risks to global growth and inflation, higher global interest rates and bond yields, domestic growth and profitability challenges for most sectors in the short term, and significantly higher medium-term disruption risks arising from increased competition and structural changes. Kotak sees a few positives for the Indian economy in the form of lower interest rates and low commodity prices, which could support higher government and/or household savings. Nonetheless, it ruled out a strong economic recovery due to ongoing challenges to consumption demand from inadequate creation of good-quality jobs, a slowdown in investment demand (likely flat government capex, weaker residential real estate sales, and no signs of recovery in private capex), and headwinds to exports/outsourcing from an uncertain global environment and slowing global growth. According to the brokerage, the net income of the Nifty-50 Index in the March quarter grew 3.7%, which was 3.8% above its expectation. Net income of its coverage universe grew 8.2%, compared to its expectation of a 0.8% increase. Kotak identified that the beat was led by banks (notably SBI), downstream oil marketing companies (due to unexpectedly high gross refining margins), and higher-than-expected other income. The EBITDA of the Nifty-50 Index during the quarter improved by 9.2%, compared to its expectation of 10.2%, while EBITDA of its coverage universe grew 11.2%, versus an expected 8.3% increase. For FY2025, net income and EBITDA of the Nifty-50 Index grew by 6.4% and 4.5%, respectively. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Time of India
18 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
US yields are America's headache, but DXY may be world's concern: Kotak Equities
Live Events Surging US bond yields signal economic fragility, elevated risk perception US faces broader consequences from a weakening dollar Dollar slide could reshape global investment and capital flow trends Indian monetary policy trajectory may not be influenced by high US yields (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The recent surge in US bond yields and a weakening US dollar index DXY ) have brought to light the diverging consequences of these two critical macro indicators. While rising bond yields are often seen as a reflection of monetary policy expectations, domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities argues that in this case, they are more symptomatic of the United States' weakening fiscal and macroeconomic to the brokerage firm's report, the sharp uptick in yields is being driven not by growth optimism but by concerns over an expanding fiscal deficit , heightened policy uncertainty, and a growing risk premium. These developments, Kotak notes, could remain largely a domestic concern, impacting the US's debt servicing costs and future borrowing outlook, without necessarily spilling over into other the picture is quite different when it comes to the US dollar. A weakening DXY, Kotak contends, carries far more global implications. As the cornerstone of international trade and finance, fluctuations in the dollar's strength ripple through currency markets, capital flows, and sovereign reserve report highlights that a sustained decline in the DXY could prompt non-US investors to reassess their holdings of US assets, reorient global capital movements, and potentially trigger asset repricing across effect, while 'US yields are US's problem,' the DXY is 'everybody's problem,' given its influence on investor behavior, financial stability, and the broader structure of global capital markets According to Kotak, the recent sharp rise in US bond yields primarily reflects concerns around deteriorating US macro fundamentals. The report attributes the movement to market pricing in '(a) continued weakness in US macro (higher fiscal deficit) and (b) greater macroeconomic and policy uncertainty,' which in turn has led to increased risk premiums demanded by brokerage notes that elevated bond yields 'for an extended period of time will also affect the US's fiscal and debt position with new bonds likely at higher rates versus old bonds,' exacerbating the fiscal burden. Kotak Equities warns that a decline in the US dollar index (DXY) could have far-reaching consequences for the US itself.'The true value of the USD may have been masked by its haven status,' the report said, despite the 'steady deterioration of US economic fundamentals over the past decade.'The brokerage pointed to the past funding of the US's excess consumption by the excess savings of Asia and Europe, which had led to rising capital flows into the US and growing ownership of US assets by non-US entities. However, further weakening of the DXY may 'change the status quo and require a shift to (1) lower US consumption and/or higher US production (higher US savings), (2) higher consumption (lower savings) elsewhere and (3) higher yields (risk premium) for US assets.'While higher US bond yields may remain a domestic concern, the weakening dollar could influence asset allocation strategies stated, 'A weakening DXY may have several long-term implications for countries and global capital markets.'The report highlighted that 'non-US holders of US assets may review their ownership of US assets on both stock and flow basis versus their earlier position of unconcerned ownership of US assets given low currency concerns.'With everything said, the report was cautious about whether this shift would directly benefit emerging markets such as India. It flagged the possibility of a 'reset' in global capital flows , though the direction remains to the report, the rise in US yields is unlikely to significantly impact the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy. Indian bond yields continue to offer a healthy premium over US yields, and India's macroeconomic fundamentals have improved compared to the US over factors such as (1) a likely low current account deficit and a healthy balance of payments, (2) manageable inflation levels, and (3) a 'fair' INR valuation based on the REER offer a cushion against external shocks, allowing the RBI to maintain its focus on domestic the domestic brokerage firm noted Key risks from such a reset could include: (1) higher yields (lower bond and equity prices) in the US for non-US entities to stay invested in the US, (2) greater investment in home markets although this runs the risk of asset bubbles in those countries and (3) change in consumption-saving behavior of 'saver' countries.': Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Economic Times
18 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
US yields are America's headache, but DXY may be world's concern: Kotak Equities
Live Events Surging US bond yields signal economic fragility, elevated risk perception US faces broader consequences from a weakening dollar Dollar slide could reshape global investment and capital flow trends Indian monetary policy trajectory may not be influenced by high US yields (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The recent surge in US bond yields and a weakening US dollar index DXY ) have brought to light the diverging consequences of these two critical macro indicators. While rising bond yields are often seen as a reflection of monetary policy expectations, domestic brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities argues that in this case, they are more symptomatic of the United States' weakening fiscal and macroeconomic to the brokerage firm's report, the sharp uptick in yields is being driven not by growth optimism but by concerns over an expanding fiscal deficit , heightened policy uncertainty, and a growing risk premium. These developments, Kotak notes, could remain largely a domestic concern, impacting the US's debt servicing costs and future borrowing outlook, without necessarily spilling over into other the picture is quite different when it comes to the US dollar. A weakening DXY, Kotak contends, carries far more global implications. As the cornerstone of international trade and finance, fluctuations in the dollar's strength ripple through currency markets, capital flows, and sovereign reserve report highlights that a sustained decline in the DXY could prompt non-US investors to reassess their holdings of US assets, reorient global capital movements, and potentially trigger asset repricing across effect, while 'US yields are US's problem,' the DXY is 'everybody's problem,' given its influence on investor behavior, financial stability, and the broader structure of global capital markets According to Kotak, the recent sharp rise in US bond yields primarily reflects concerns around deteriorating US macro fundamentals. The report attributes the movement to market pricing in '(a) continued weakness in US macro (higher fiscal deficit) and (b) greater macroeconomic and policy uncertainty,' which in turn has led to increased risk premiums demanded by brokerage notes that elevated bond yields 'for an extended period of time will also affect the US's fiscal and debt position with new bonds likely at higher rates versus old bonds,' exacerbating the fiscal burden. Kotak Equities warns that a decline in the US dollar index (DXY) could have far-reaching consequences for the US itself.'The true value of the USD may have been masked by its haven status,' the report said, despite the 'steady deterioration of US economic fundamentals over the past decade.'The brokerage pointed to the past funding of the US's excess consumption by the excess savings of Asia and Europe, which had led to rising capital flows into the US and growing ownership of US assets by non-US entities. However, further weakening of the DXY may 'change the status quo and require a shift to (1) lower US consumption and/or higher US production (higher US savings), (2) higher consumption (lower savings) elsewhere and (3) higher yields (risk premium) for US assets.'While higher US bond yields may remain a domestic concern, the weakening dollar could influence asset allocation strategies stated, 'A weakening DXY may have several long-term implications for countries and global capital markets.'The report highlighted that 'non-US holders of US assets may review their ownership of US assets on both stock and flow basis versus their earlier position of unconcerned ownership of US assets given low currency concerns.'With everything said, the report was cautious about whether this shift would directly benefit emerging markets such as India. It flagged the possibility of a 'reset' in global capital flows , though the direction remains to the report, the rise in US yields is unlikely to significantly impact the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy. Indian bond yields continue to offer a healthy premium over US yields, and India's macroeconomic fundamentals have improved compared to the US over factors such as (1) a likely low current account deficit and a healthy balance of payments, (2) manageable inflation levels, and (3) a 'fair' INR valuation based on the REER offer a cushion against external shocks, allowing the RBI to maintain its focus on domestic the domestic brokerage firm noted Key risks from such a reset could include: (1) higher yields (lower bond and equity prices) in the US for non-US entities to stay invested in the US, (2) greater investment in home markets although this runs the risk of asset bubbles in those countries and (3) change in consumption-saving behavior of 'saver' countries.': Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Kotak Bank Share Price Live Updates: Kotak Bank experiences a decline in returns
03 Jun 2025 | 08:43:46 AM IST Join us on the Kotak Bank Stock Liveblog, your hub for real-time updates and comprehensive analysis on a prominent stock. Stay in the know with the latest information about Kotak Bank, including: Last traded price 2063.6, Market capitalization: 410289.7, Volume: 2701140, Price-to-earnings ratio 18.54, Earnings per share 111.29. Our liveblog provides a well-rounded view of Kotak Bank by incorporating both fundamental and technical indicators. Be the first to receive breaking news that can impact Kotak Bank's performance in the market. Our expert analysis and recommendations empower you to make informed investment choices. Stay informed and stay ahead with the Kotak Bank Stock Liveblog. The data points are updated as on 08:43:46 AM IST, 03 Jun 2025 Show more
Hindustan Times
a day ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
CBI raids premises of IRS officer held for taking bribe from Pizza chain owner; 1 cr cash, 3kg gold seized
The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on Monday recovered around 3.5 kilograms of gold, two kilograms of silver, and approximately ₹1 crore in cash while conducting searches at premises in Delhi linked to an arrested senior Indian Revenue Service (IRS) officer and another accused in a bribery case. According to ANI, the ongoing investigation pertains to the arrest of two accused, including Amit Kumar Singal, a 2007-batch IRS official currently serving as Additional Director General at the Directorate of Taxpayer Services. Also Read | Punjab: CA held taking ₹10L bribe on behalf of IRS officer His associate Harsh Kotak was also arrested, following a trap operation. The two are being probed in connection with a bribery case involving an amount of ₹25 lakh, officials said on Monday. As per the PTI news agency, Amit Kumar Singal had allegedly demanded a total bribe amount of ₹45 lakh to settle an income-tax notice issued to Sanam Kapoor, owner of La Pino'z Pizza, according to the CBI FIR. The first instalment of ₹25 lakh was delivered to his residence in Punjab's Mohali on Saturday, where Kotak allegedly received the money on the officer's behalf. Also Read | Tax educator's viral bribe post over GST gets response from Nirmala Sitharaman Acting on Kapoor's complaint, a CBI team raided the premises and arrested Kotak. Another team of the federal agency arrested Singal from his Delhi residence on the same day. According to the FIR, Singal, then posted as the joint commissioner of the Customs Department, Mumbai, approached Kapoor and, after a few meetings, entered into a master franchise contract with La Pinoz Pizza through Parker Impex, a partnership firm in the name of his mother, Ranjna, and Amit Rattan. Also Read | MCG engineer held for taking ₹1L bribe to allow warehouse in Daultabad It was allegedly followed by other agreements regarding a franchise deal for two outlets and a store with Flevaco (a partnership firm of Harsh Kotak and his mother, Godavariben Amulakhbhai Kotak) and an agreement for an outlet with Mohini Hospitality, in which Kotak's wife, Kiran, was the proprietor. Meanwhile, the two were produced before a special magistrate in Chandigarh, who remanded them in judicial custody till June 13, according to Kapoor's lawyer, Gagandeep Jammu.
