Latest news with #Kremlinology
Economic Times
21 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
The Donland deal: How Pakistan got Trump's attention again
ET Online Pakistan has entered Donald Trump's mind and occupied some head space by doing what it does best - please, pamper and satisfy all needs of the moment, be it delivering terrorists or minerals. Like it or not, Pakistan is in the room, if not at the table, even as Trump and Modi will bump into each other at the ongoing G7 Summit at Kananaskis, Canada. It anticipated contours of Trump's second coming better, adjusted its posture, made the right offers and made them early. The effort is bolstered by more than 10 different lobbying firms working the system, including one headed by Trump's former bodyguard Keith Schiller.A unique quirk: Trump seems to like generals in uniform. Be sure he's thinking of army chief Asim Munir and not Shehbaz Sharif when he talks of Pakistan's 'great leaders' in his frequent remembrances of the India-Pak ceasefire he 'crafted'. A detail: contrary to reports in the hyper media, Munir was not invited to attend the parade to celebrate 250 years of the US army. India is struggling to adjust to a presidency that is less institutional, less structured and less focused. It's about getting the Kremlinology right, the sophisticated art of reading cryptic and crypto signals, and flying close to the sons (even Barron Trump). Outrage - however satisfying - will not help get over the Trump hump. Nor would cancelling defence orders in a fit of pique and losing the long game. Better to use the relationship to build capacity. It's good to remember that US-Pak relations were factored in when India decided to strengthen relations with Washington back in the day and negotiate the nuclear deal. They have remained a reality even though New Delhi thought it had put Pakistan in the diplomatic isolation ward. It kept bouncing back with American and British help and a permanent cadre of sympathetic bureaucrats, including retired ambassadors, in both capitals. Official India learnt to deal with the pain even if IT cell warriors and rabid TV anchors didn' says an analyst, the question remains the same: 'Does India want to - or will it - give Pakistan a veto on US- India ties?' The answer from New Delhi so far seems to be 'no' even as anger rises and political pain grows. Pakistan will do anything to please Trump and Sons. India will Pakistan's play. Over the past few years, with the Afghanistan war over and US interest waning, the army-ISI combine realised that Pakistan was no longer a frontline state. Joe Biden paid little attention and never dialled Islamabad. As American focus moved to the Indo-Pacific and rivalry with China, Pakistan knew it wasn't going to be part of the Quad, although it made some half-hearted elite understood they couldn't vie with India. But they were 'happy just to be heard and not be considered irrelevant'. The militablishment went back to the original drawing board - counterterrorism cooperation - to keep parts of the US government engaged. The easiest doors to open were at the State Department and was dismissive of Pakistan. But note that his administration approved $450 mn to 'sustain' Pakistan's F-16 fleet, including engine hardware upgrades and classified software support. The package was said to be for counterterrorism operations. In a replay, Trump approved $397 mn in February for the same fleet, despite announcing a wide freeze on foreign aid. He made an the background, Rawalpindi slowly took control of Pakistan's China policy from the politicians and worked to dispel the notion the country was (completely) in Beijing's camp. Americans wanted to believe the myth for their own reasons. For the Pakistan army, maintaining ties to America, enjoying the free military training and keeping tabs on Pentagon's thinking have always been priorities. To say nothing of serving as an important window for China in to the point, Pakistani generals never let US Centcom lose sight of the fact that their country was/is always available as a strategic staging area for US operations. Which brings us to the present. Munir and Centcom commander Michael Kurilla go back a long way. Both assumed their current positions in 2022 and have hosted each other more than shouldn't be a surprise that last week, the American general called Pakistan 'a phenomenal partner' in the fight against IS-Khorasan. Kurilla clearly thinks the military partnership with Pakistan can, and should, exist separately from the one with was the first person Munir called to say that the Abbey Gate bomber Mohammad Sharifullah, a.k.a. Jaffar, had been caught. He then requested that the message be passed on to the president. Result: a special mention in Trump's address to so it will go. Until it won't. Elevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea. How a nudge from Cyrus Mistry helped TCS unlock a USD1 billion opportunity Operation Sindoor, Turkey, Bangladesh played out as India hosted global airlines after 42 years Benchmarked with BSE 1000, this index fund will diversify your bets. But at a cost. How individual bankruptcy law can halt suicides by failed businessmen Explainer: The RBI's LAF corridor and its role in rate transmission Stock picks of the week: 5 stocks with consistent score improvement and return potential of more than 32% in 1 year Defence stocks: Black & white, and many shades of grey. 10 stocks with an upside potential of up to 30% Stock Radar: 40% drop from highs! Swiggy stocks make a rounding bottom pattern; time to buy the dip?
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The two women at the centre of Mike Waltz's demise
To experts in White House Kremlinology the writing was on the wall for Mike Waltz, Donald Trump's national security adviser. On Tuesday, he was spotted flying with the president aboard Marine One from the White House to Joint Base Andrews, just outside Washington, but did not make it up the stairs to Air Force One for the flight to Michigan and a landmark speech celebrating 100 days in power. Less than 48 hours later a slew of administration officials quietly confirmed that Mr Waltz, a former special forces Green Beret, had lost the confidence of the president making him the first major scalp of Mr Trump's second administration. Officially, the White House kept up a wall of obfuscation all morning. 'There is no comment at this moment,' said Steven Cheung, director of communications, in a reminder that nothing is final until confirmed by Mr Trump. And then it came in the form of a Truth Social post. The president announced he was sending Mr Waltz to New York to be his permanent representative to the United Nations. Along the way, Mr Waltz appeared to have fallen foul of two of the key women in Trump world, making his position unsustainable weeks after it was revealed he added a journalist to a Signal chat being used to discuss highly sensitive military plans. Laura Loomer, a tireless hardline Maga voice, has made it her mission to root out anyone she deemed disloyal to the president. She claimed the scalp on Mr Waltz on Thursday, declaring he had been 'Loomered'. But other reports suggested that Mr Waltz had lost the confidence of Susie Wiles, Mr Trump's chief of staff, and the second most powerful figure in the White House. A former White House official said three things had undone Mr Waltz. He had always been on the Russia-sceptic, hawkish wing of the Republican Party, and his hiring of like-minded allies had only further raised suspicions in Mr Trump's Maga world that his America First credentials were unreliable. Insiders had also questioned his knowledge of key foreign policy areas. Was his experience as a special forces colonel on multiple deployments to Africa and the Middle East enough to make him an expert on the niceties of diplomacy and international affairs? And then there was Signal-gate. Mr Trump's national security apparatus became a global laughing stock when it emerged that Mr Waltz had accidentally added Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of the Atlantic magazine, to an encrypted chat about bombing Yemen, apparently after storing his number under the wrong name. 'That made him look JV,' said the former official, using an abbreviation for 'junior varsity,' a term of abuse for amateurish behaviour. 'Usually it is the national security adviser who is the most protective of information and the most cautious about these things.' Mr Waltz was already short of allies. The president likes to fill his team with conflicting views so he can step back and let them duke it out before he makes the final decision. Mr Waltz was one of the few Russia hawks in the administration, arguing internally for sanctions on Moscow if it failed to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. That put him in conflict with other Cabinet figures, as well as influential outsiders such as Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host, and Steve Bannon, the former White House strategist. He had come from a more traditional wing of the Republican party. And in 2016 he had even been part of the party establishment trying to block Mr Trump from winning the Republican nomination. In a campaign video, he essentially accused Mr Trump of being a draft dodger. Mr Waltz worked his way into Trump world only after the president's 2020 election defeat. Mr Waltz became a familiar face on TV speaking up for the former president and, with his political base in Florida, he became a regular at Mar-a-Lago and its campaign headquarters. Some of Mr Trump's most loyal supporters had kept the receipts, however, and were waiting for their moment. Mr Waltz lost four key staffers at the start of the month after Miss Loomer, whose passion for conspiracy theories saw her barred from Mr Trump's plane at the end of last year's campaign, urged the president to fire National Security Council officials for disloyalty. She reportedly presented Mr Trump with a list of a dozen names and examples of why they should not be trusted. The president later said Miss Loomer, who once claimed 9/11 was an inside job, had not been involved with the dismissals, but called her 'a very good patriot.' Since then she has described how Mr Waltz was her eventual target, and told Tara Palmeri, a journalist, that she had kept video of the then Florida Congressman attacking Mr Trump. 'Donald Trump hasn't served this country a day in his life,' Mr Waltz says in the 2016 clip. 'Don't let Trump fool you.' But the bigger problem for Mr Waltz may have been inside the White House where his judgement was being questioned. Ms Wiles, as a big beast of Florida politics, had helped bring the congressman into the fold. But within weeks they clashed when he tried to keep her out of top-level national security meetings, according to a source. It triggered a round of briefing that Mr Waltz had become too big-headed for his own good. The pressure from the Maga base coupled with the internal unhappiness simply 'made for a perfect storm,' said the former White House staffer. After the turmoil of the first administration, which lost a national security adviser within 22 days, this White House managed 101 days before its first big departure. And even then. Mr Trump has managed to maintain an aura of stability by finding a high-profile job for Mr Waltz at the UN. But for a president who relies on key players having access to the Oval Office it is a clear demotion. And allies in Europe will worry that Mr Trump is now without one of the grown-ups in the room, someone who could be relied on to temper the president's most isolationist impulses. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
The two women at the centre of Mike Waltz's demise
To experts in White House Kremlinology the writing was on the wall for Mike Waltz, Donald Trump's national security adviser. On Tuesday, he was spotted flying with the president aboard Marine One from the White House to Joint Base Andrews, just outside Washington, but did not make it up the stairs to Air Force One for the flight to Michigan and a landmark speech celebrating 100 days in power. Less than 48 hours later a slew of administration officials quietly confirmed that Mr Waltz, a former special forces Green Beret, had lost the confidence of the president making him the first major scalp of Mr Trump's second administration. Officially, the White House kept up a wall of obfuscation all morning. 'There is no comment at this moment,' said Steven Cheung, director of communications, in a reminder that nothing is final until confirmed by Mr Trump. And then it came in the form of a Truth Social post. The president announced he was sending Mr Waltz to New York to be his permanent representative to the United Nations. Along the way, Mr Waltz appeared to have fallen foul of two of the key women in Trump world, making his position unsustainable weeks after it was revealed he added a journalist to a Signal chat being used to discuss highly sensitive military plans. Laura Loomer, a tireless hardline Maga voice, has made it her mission to root out anyone she deemed disloyal to the president. She claimed the scalp on Mr Waltz on Thursday, declaring he had been 'Loomered'. But other reports suggested that Mr Waltz had lost the confidence of Susie Wiles, Mr Trump's chief of staff, and the second most powerful figure in the White House. A former White House official said three things had undone Mr Waltz. He had always been on the Russia-sceptic, hawkish wing of the Republican Party, and his hiring of like-minded allies had only further raised suspicions in Mr Trump's Maga world that his America First credentials were unreliable. Insiders had also questioned his knowledge of key foreign policy areas. Was his experience as a special forces colonel on multiple deployments to Africa and the Middle East enough to make him an expert on the niceties of diplomacy and international affairs? And then there was Signal-gate. Mr Trump's national security apparatus became a global laughing stock when it emerged that Mr Waltz had accidentally added Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of the Atlantic magazine, to an encrypted chat about bombing Yemen, apparently after storing his number under the wrong name. 'That made him look JV,' said the former official, using an abbreviation for 'junior varsity,' a term of abuse for amateurish behaviour. 'Usually it is the national security adviser who is the most protective of information and the most cautious about these things.' Mr Waltz was already short of allies. The president likes to fill his team with conflicting views so he can step back and let them duke it out before he makes the final decision. Mr Waltz was one of the few Russia hawks in the administration, arguing internally for sanctions on Moscow if it failed to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. That put him in conflict with other Cabinet figures, as well as influential outsiders such as Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host, and Steve Bannon, the former White House strategist. He had come from a more traditional wing of the Republican party. And in 2016 he had even been part of the party establishment trying to block Mr Trump from winning the Republican nomination. In a campaign video, he essentially accused Mr Trump of being a draft dodger. Mr Waltz worked his way into Trump world only after the president's 2020 election defeat. Mr Waltz became a familiar face on TV speaking up for the former president and, with his political base in Florida, he became a regular at Mar-a-Lago and its campaign headquarters. Some of Mr Trump's most loyal supporters had kept the receipts, however, and were waiting for their moment. Mr Waltz lost four key staffers at the start of the month after Miss Loomer, whose passion for conspiracy theories saw her barred from Mr Trump's plane at the end of last year's campaign, urged the president to fire National Security Council officials for disloyalty. She reportedly presented Mr Trump with a list of a dozen names and examples of why they should not be trusted. The president later said Miss Loomer, who once claimed 9/11 was an inside job, had not been involved with the dismissals, but called her 'a very good patriot.' Since then she has described how Mr Waltz was her eventual target, and told Tara Palmeri, a journalist, that she had kept video of the then Florida Congressman attacking Mr Trump. 'Donald Trump hasn't served this country a day in his life,' Mr Waltz says in the 2016 clip. 'Don't let Trump fool you.' In my interview with @LauraLoomer, she explains that she came to the White House last month with a video that would end Mike Waltz's career as National Security Advisor. The Audio version of our interview is finally LIVE. Follow the show below. — Tara Palmeri (@tarapalmeri) May 1, 2025 But the bigger problem for Mr Waltz may have been inside the White House where his judgement was being questioned. Ms Wiles, as a big beast of Florida politics, had helped bring the congressman into the fold. But within weeks they clashed when he tried to keep her out of top-level national security meetings, according to a source. It triggered a round of briefing that Mr Waltz had become too big-headed for his own good. The pressure from the Maga base coupled with the internal unhappiness simply 'made for a perfect storm,' said the former White House staffer. After the turmoil of the first administration, which lost a national security adviser within 22 days, this White House managed 101 days before its first big departure. And even then. Mr Trump has managed to maintain an aura of stability by finding a high-profile job for Mr Waltz at the UN. But for a president who relies on key players having access to the Oval Office it is a clear demotion. And allies in Europe will worry that Mr Trump is now without one of the grown-ups in the room, someone who could be relied on to temper the president's most isolationist impulses.
Mint
24-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Markets think they hold all the cards over Trump
The vital question for investors: Did President Trump cave on tariffs and the Fed because the markets now have the whip hand? Is it because he has some grand plan behind the chaos? Or did he just talk to someone else? To be clear: I don't know. I can't make out a grand plan that explains the wild policy swings, but both market vigilantes and the Kremlinology of which advisers have access to the Oval Office on any given day seem like plausible explanations. On Tuesday and Wednesday, markets turned very positive with stocks and the dollar up, and Treasury yields and gold down. The rout in American assets stopped after Trump said he wouldn't fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and The Wall Street Journal reported that tariffs on China could be halved. In short: Trump caved, at least for now. The case that Trump changed his mind because of the market reaction is easy to make, and repeats his reversal two weeks ago, when he delayed his so-called reciprocal tariffs after signs of serious trouble appeared in financial markets. This time, the dollar reached its weakest in three years despite the sharp rises in bond yields, while gold hit new highs. Markets didn't like what Trump was saying on the Fed and doing with tariffs, and Trump didn't like how markets reacted. For investors, this interpretation is reassuring, as it sets a limit on the dumbest ideas—akin to the 'bond vigilante" reaction that ejected Liz Truss from her seat as British prime minister faster than a lettuce could wilt. The power of the markets isn't magical. Asset prices are just many people assessing the prospects for the economy and future returns, and concluding that neither 145% tariffs on China nor Trump interfering in setting interest rates would be good for them. Markets are a live opinion poll of money. In that sense, they matter to Trump. But there is no assurance that he will be ruled by them. Sometimes doing what's best for the country might be bad for stocks (tax rises) or bad for bonds (tax cuts) or bad for the dollar (rate cuts or a war, for example). Traders worked on the New York Stock Exchange floor on Wednesday. The combination of all three is different, though. The only policy I can think of that would be at least arguably good for the country but bad for stocks, bonds and the dollar all at once would be a new pandemic lockdown (please, no!)—and even then, fiscal and monetary support should be a major offset. The triple plunge typically means capital flight is underway, something no government should be pleased by. Britain experienced this in 1976, an ignominious year when stocks, bonds and the pound all fell until the new prime minister called in the International Monetary Fund to stop a fiscal crisis. Countries that ignore capital flight eventually end up isolated and poor—think Venezuela or Zimbabwe. The U.S. is a long way from this sort of catastrophe, but I'm hopeful that the markets have imposed some limits on what Trump is willing to do. That's good for investors, but comes with three big caveats. First, don't assume that Trump has put a floor under prices—the S&P 500 low earlier this month of 4835 wasn't the key, nor was the ICE U.S. Dollar Index below 100 or even the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5%. If it was the markets forcing a reversal, it was probably the signs of capital flight, and the simultaneous losses, not some sort of 'Trump put" in stocks or sensitivity to a particular bond yield. Second, it shows just how much risk Trump is willing to take before reversing. It should be obvious that attacking the Fed's independence would hurt markets, yet he did it anyway. It should be obvious that imposing 145% tariffs on your biggest supplier of goods would hurt markets, yet he did it anyway. If prices have to fall hard before he drops his next market-unfriendly plan, that's cold comfort for investors during the fall. Third, this all rests on the assumption that Trump reversed course because of the markets, and we can't be sure that's true. Trump might talk to a different adviser next time. Or he might be making it up as he goes along. Investors shouldn't get complacent about their supposed hold over the president. Write to James Mackintosh at
