Latest news with #Krinsky
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
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Momentum stocks that helped drive the market's epic recovery are stalling. Get ready for a ‘buyable' pullback.
After helping to power the U.S. stock market's historic recovery from April's tariff-induced selloff, many of the momentum names popular with individual investors are showing signs of exhaustion. That means investors should approach with caution over the coming weeks. Because another opportunity to buy the dip might lie ahead, according to Jonathan Krinsky, a technical analyst at BTIG. My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector Walmart's stock looks like it's in trouble. What the chart says may come next. Why bonds aren't acting like a safe haven for investors amid the Israel-Iran conflict My mother-in-law thought the world's richest man needed Apple gift cards. How on Earth could she fall for this scam? 'While it's still too early to say we are getting a more widespread pullback, we are starting to see some early cracks in certain high-beta momentum names today, with many leadership stocks working on potential downside reversals,' Krinsky said in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Thursday. As Krinsky pointed out, Goldman Sachs Group's long-only basket of high-beta momentum stocks appears to have stalled out just shy of its year-to-date peak from February. He identified seven momentum stocks that look particularly vulnerable: GE Aerospace GE, Robinhood Markets Inc., HOOD Lemonade Inc. LMND, Netflix Inc. NFLX, Tesla Inc. TSLA, Twilio Inc. TWLO and Upstart Holdings Inc. UPST. To be sure, only three of these stocks — GE, Tesla and Netflix — are components of the S&P 500. Even if they encounter some near-term turbulence, all of those stocks remain in strong uptrends, Krinsky said. That means any pullbacks would likely prove to be another 'buyable' opportunity. 'To be clear, most of these are in strong primary uptrends, so pullbacks are ultimately buyable,' Krinsky said. 'Tactically, however, we would be cautious of many of these names over the next couple of weeks, especially heading into quarter-end, when big rebalances often take place.' Since skittering to the brink of bear-market territory in early April after President Donald Trump unveiled his 'liberation day' tariff plans, the S&P 500 SPX has staged what could ultimately prove to be its fastest-ever recovery back toward record highs, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The speed of the move has taken many on Wall Street by surprise. By the time Trump announced a 90-day pause on many of the tariffs on April 9, the index had fallen by 18.9% from its February record high to its closing low on April 8. Since then, all seven of the momentum stocks cited by Krinsky have tallied huge gains, with Robinhood up more than 115%, while Lemonade has gained nearly 70%. Even Netflix, the worst performer in the group, has risen by roughly 40%, FactSet data showed. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has risen by 21.3%. Data from several Wall Street banks show retail investors helped power the market's recovery in April, while their professional peers remained much more cautious. The index was still about 1.7 percentage points shy of its Feb. 19 record as of Thursday's close, although it tallied its highest finish since Feb. 20, according to Dow Jones data. U.S. stocks finished higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite COMP and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA all closing in the green. 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. Gundlach says gold is no longer for lunatics as the bond king says wait to buy the 30-year 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? I'm in my 80s and have 2 kids. How do I choose between them to be my executor? 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell?
Yahoo
25-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold prices plunge in biggest one-day drop in years. Is the record rally over?
Gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in nearly four years Wednesday, raising questions about whether a torrid rally driven by anxiety over President Trump's trade policies can continue as the administration appeared to take a more conciliatory approach. The precious metal had climbed in grand scale this year, culminating in a rise past $3,500 an ounce this week, before support for prices appeared to suddenly give way. The buying opportunity of a lifetime is coming. But not before a 40% drop for the S&P 500, says this strategist. S&P 500's rapid exit from correction territory hinged on Trump's walk-backs of tariffs and Fed fight 'We are shocked and upset': My mother died and her second husband said he now owns everything. Is this true? 10 'pure value' stocks favored by analysts to soar 20% to 96% over the next year 'I am suspicious': My father died, leaving me $250,000. My brother says it's all gone. What can I do? That raised questions over whether gold has exhausted its run to record highs. That may be the case for now, and there's more room for prices to fall, analysts said — though adding that the hard stop in the rally does not mark a top for gold. 'There is nothing telling us that $3,500 is a top for gold,' said Michael Armbruster, co-founder and managing partner at futures brokerage Altavest. 'The trend is still up and we are now experiencing a normal correction in a bull market.' In the short run, however, gold may see another '$100 more to [the] downside,' he told MarketWatch. Gold prices made a sudden shift lower on Tuesday. Gold futures for June delivery GC00 GCM25 had climbed to as high as $3,509.90 an ounce, the highest intraday level on record, before dropping back to settle at $3,419.40, down $5.90, or 0.2%. Losses for gold intensified Wednesday, with prices down $125.30, or 3.7%, to settle at $3,294.10. Prices marked their largest daily percentage decrease since June 17, 2021, according to an analysis of FactSet data conducted by Dow Jones Market Data. And gold prices may have quite a bit of room to fall further given the impressive climb. In a Tuesday note, Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said gold was 27% above its 200-day moving average, which is a level only exceeded a few times in the last 30 years. Krinsky saw that as a sign that gold had entered a 'blow-off phase.' In trader lingo, a blow-off top refers to a sharp, accelerating price increase for an asset that can be followed by a steep decline. The downside risk for gold is high here, said Krinsky. When gold has moved more than 25% above its 200-DMA, it has always tested its 200-DMA over the ensuing three to six months, he said. The 200-DMA for most active gold futures was at $2,729.81 on Wednesday. 'Parabolic price moves are a rare occurrence in markets, and markets' price history shows such moves can be the final stage of a mature bull-market run,' said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at He believes that the gold market is 'close to climaxing from a time perspective, but not necessarily from a price perspective.' Prices couldstill shoot higher, 'and possibly much higher in the coming days,' but thebigger daily price moves 'suggest time is running out on this very mature bull-market run,' Wyckoff said. For now, a drop below $3,200 in the June gold futures contract would 'produce more chart damage,' he added. A change in the backdrop of the global trade war was among the reasons for the downturn in gold. 'Gold's been riding the trade-war pillar hard, and that's the first leg starting to wobble,' said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. The White House is considering cutting tariffs on Chinese imports in order to de-escalate tensions with Beijing, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, said that he had predicted that a resolution of trade tensions would likely spark a price correction in gold and it seems that this, along with Trump's easing up on the pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, 'did the trick.' U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters Wednesday, however, that Trump hasn't offered to reduce tariffs on China in a unilateral way. Meanwhile, the 'fracas' between Trump and Powell was just 'headline helium,' said SPI Asset Management's Innes. It was purely a 'hot-air rally' that pumped the trade for gold, he said, and now that hot air is leaking fast. 'We're seeing the room normalize and with it, gold's parabolic run is getting checked.' Late Tuesday, Trump told reporters that he has no intention of firing Powell and would like to seem him 'be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.' That was a shift from Trump's social-media post last Thursday, when he said Powell's termination 'cannot come fast enough.' Against that backdrop, the U.S. dollar DXY looks like it's 'starting to find its anchor again — and that's where the real trouble for gold lies,' said Innes. If fading Fed interference risks and whispers of a trade thaw lead to stabilization in the greenback, then the 'need for a panic hedge evaporates.' Gold bulls 'lose their urgency' and exchange-traded fund flows slow, and those moment chasers are already heading for the exits, he noted. Gold's drop so far hasn't raised too many worries among gold traders. 'Gold's price correction may have ended this furious, nearly parabolic run, but it doesn't spell the end of this bull market,' said Gold Newsletter's Lundin. The $150-an-ounce or so drop is big, said Edmund Moy, senior IRA strategist for precious-metals distributor U.S. Money Reserve — but in context, it's only 9% of gold's rise since its rally began in 2022, and 5% of total gold prices. Moy, who's also a former director of the Treasury Department's U.S. Mint, said gold's latest rally was fueled by the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, high inflation and now the Trump tariffs, with gold rising from $1,600 in 2022 to more than $3,400 as of Tuesday. Gold prices were on track to top their inflation-adjusted record high right before their sudden drop this week. Front-month gold futures had ended Monday at $3,425.30 — almost topping the 'real,' or inflation-adjusted, record settlement high of $3,428.18 from Jan. 21, 1980. On that date, the nominal settlement price, or face value not adjusted for inflation, was $834 an ounce. Read Mark Hulbert's column: The mystery behind gold's bull market The pace of the gold rally had been 'nothing short of remarkable,' Trevor Yates, senior investment analyst at Global X ETFs, told MarketWatch. He pointed out that bullion has outperformed U.S. equities year to date. So far this year, gold futures GC00 have climbed 25%, while the S&P 500 index SPX had fallen by about 8.5% as of Wednesday intraday. The rise in gold is even more impressive given its roughly 27% and 13% appreciation in 2024 and 2023, respectively, as the metal has once again delivered on 'providing investors with diversified exposure during times of rising uncertainty and market volatility,' said Yates. The current pullback in gold prices is driven by 'positioning and flows rather than any fundamental change in our bullish gold thesis,' he said. The recent consolidation in the gold price is 'natural after such a strong rally, with our longer-term bullish thesis remaining very much intact.' 'We continue to see robust physical-market demand, driven by central banks, coupled with rising stagflation concerns and elevated levels of uncertainty supporting the gold price,' Yates added. This pullback represents a 'potentially interesting entry point for longer-term investors,' he said. Talk of a Trump pivot on China tariffs is helping stocks — but U.S. companies want actual trade deals I held power of attorney for my late brother. Can I withdraw money from his bank account to give to his favorite charity? Wednesday's relief rally suggests the 'Sell America' trade is on pause. But is the worst really over? 'I have an out-of-state adviser in a Republican state': How can I tell if his political views influence his investment advice? My husband will inherit $180K. I think we should invest the money. He wants to pay off his $168K mortgage. Who's right?
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
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The stock market may be soaring, but here's where the sellers are likely waiting
The stock market soared Wednesday after President Donald Trump essentially erased the possibility of a worst-case scenario — for now — but that doesn't necessarily mean the selling is over. As dramatic as the bounce was, there's reason to believe that sellers still have positions they want to move, and they may even be hoping for a bit of a bigger bounce so they can start unloading. Punishing bond-market selloff likely forced Trump's 90-day tariff delay: former J.P. Morgan chief strategist Investors show up for 30-year Treasury bond auction despite tariff-driven volatility Bond-market chaos is fueling concerns about a crisis. Here's what you need to know. Here's how far the stock market must fall to trigger a 'circuit-breaker' trading halt The stock market may be soaring, but here's where the sellers are likely waiting The S&P 500 index SPX shot up as much as 10% to an intraday high of 5,481.34 after the announcement of a tariff 'pause,' before paring some gains to close up 9.5% at 5,456.90. That mercifully halted a four-day, 12.1% tumble to Tuesday's 11-month closing low. A selloff that sharp tends to leave a number of resistance levels in its wake, as those who wanted to sell either couldn't react fast enough or chose not to sell into a falling market. The first big resistance level was the gap in the charts created on April 4 between that day's intraday high of 5,292.14 and the April 3 low of 5,390.83. Gaps created on declines often act as resistance when revisited because they depict areas where investors were unable to act. So investors looking to 'sell on a rally,' as the saying goes, can now act when given the chance. The S&P 500 had a little trouble with that resistance zone in afternoon trading, but it broke through with the help of surge in the final hour before the close. There is also a big price gap just above current levels that was created on April 3 after Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement. The intraday high that day was 5,499.53, well below the April 2 low of 5,571.48. Another aspect of price gaps is that they often act as a vacuum. As a declining market looks for areas to consolidate on a bounce, gaps can look attractive given that the market hadn't actually seen those levels on the way down. Many chart watchers assume that eventually, all price gaps will be filled. While there are some technical signals to suggest Wednesday's bounce can continue (see below), BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky doesn't believe, under current conditions, the market has the strength to fill the April 3 gap before the selling resumes. Kudos to Krinsky for what he wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday: 'We don't know about the higher one, but [the gap to] 5,390 seems likely to get filled' before the S&P 500 turns 'meaningfully lower.' The rally did fill the first gap as Krinsky called for, and it also satisfied the first key retracement target based on the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618, or 1.618, and came within a whisper of another. That ratio, which is also referred to as the golden or divine ratio, given its prevalence in natural systems, has been adopted by many Wall Street chartists to calculate targets for a bounce or pullback. For the S&P 500, that first Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% (1 minus 0.618) of the selloff from the Feb. 19 all-time intraday high of 6,147.43 to Monday's intraday low of 4,835.04 came in at 5,336.37. The next key retracement target is 50%, at 5,491.24, which is just below the bottom of the April 3 gap. The index stopped just short of that at Wednesday's high, before pulling back slightly at the close. The final key retracement of 61.8% would come in at 5,646.09, which is above the top of April 3 gap but just below the April 2 close, before the selloff began. Fibonacci followers believe that if a retracement stays within 61.8% of the prior move, it remains governed by that previous trend. But as Krinsky points out, the market's current bounce will likely peter out well before the 61.8% retracement is reached, on its way to eventual fresh lows. Krinsky provided one compelling reason he believes Tuesday's bounce could last for a little while longer, and reach into the April 3 gap-resistance zone. On Monday, the notional value of the trading volume in the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund SPY was $129.4 billion — the price times the number of shares traded — based on FactSet data, which Krinsky noted was a record high. 'Over the past 10 years, the four prior largest notional volume days all marked tactical [or tradable] lows, but all of those were re-tested and in some cases meaningfully broken over the ensuing weeks,' Krinsky wrote. He said all of the four previous high-notional volume days led to at least a 50% retracement of the prior downtrend 'before turning back down.' The S&P 500 has already nearly retraced half the downtrend. Basically, Krinsky said history suggests it could potentially climb a little further into the lower part of the April 3 gap before the rally fades, and selling takes over. U.S. stocks at their cheapest in nearly 18 months. Why earnings season holds the key on whether to buy. Buyers show up in force for Treasury's 10-year auction, shocking bond traders 'I'm stuck': I'm a single mom with a 6-year-old child. What can I do to earn money fast? Top strategists say stock market still bogged down by tariff uncertainty despite Trump's pause 'She has been telling him lies': My sister convinced my father to sign everything over to her. What can I do? Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Business
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History shows S&P 500 does well in April after a weak March, BTIG says
-- BTIG analysts highlighted a historical trend suggesting a potential rebound for the S&P 500 (SPX) in April following a challenging March. According to BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky, the month of March is set to close with over a 6% decline, marking the worst monthly performance since September 2022 and the most difficult March since 2020. Despite the recent downturn, Krinsky noted that April has traditionally been a positive month for the markets when March has seen a decline of more than 3%. Krinsky pointed out that since World War II, there have only been seven other instances where March experienced a drop exceeding 3%. Following each of those instances, April ended with gains, averaging a 5.92% increase. Furthermore, the period from April to December concluded with higher market closings in six out of seven occurrences, with 2001 being the exception, posting a slight decline of 1.05%. While Krinsky expressed caution about the medium-term market trend, he indicated that the setup for April seems to favor bullish outcomes. The analyst also mentioned that the S&P 500 retested its mid-March intraday low of 5504 earlier in the morning before rallying. Although he anticipates volatility in April, Krinsky believes the odds support some relief for the market. Adding to this perspective, he observed a divergence in the Volatility Index (VIX), which did not reach a new high while the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its March lows. This divergence was also seen in January, prior to a subsequent rally. Related articles Dover Corp. Raises Quarterly Dividend 1% to $0.51; 1.4% Yield Endava Acquires TLM Atlassian shares surge 23% on a strong set of results Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Business
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History shows S&P 500 does well in April after a weak March, BTIG says
-- BTIG analysts highlighted a historical trend suggesting a potential rebound for the S&P 500 (SPX) in April following a challenging March. According to BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky, the month of March is set to close with over a 6% decline, marking the worst monthly performance since September 2022 and the most difficult March since 2020. Despite the recent downturn, Krinsky noted that April has traditionally been a positive month for the markets when March has seen a decline of more than 3%. Krinsky pointed out that since World War II, there have only been seven other instances where March experienced a drop exceeding 3%. Following each of those instances, April ended with gains, averaging a 5.92% increase. Furthermore, the period from April to December concluded with higher market closings in six out of seven occurrences, with 2001 being the exception, posting a slight decline of 1.05%. While Krinsky expressed caution about the medium-term market trend, he indicated that the setup for April seems to favor bullish outcomes. The analyst also mentioned that the S&P 500 retested its mid-March intraday low of 5504 earlier in the morning before rallying. Although he anticipates volatility in April, Krinsky believes the odds support some relief for the market. Adding to this perspective, he observed a divergence in the Volatility Index (VIX), which did not reach a new high while the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its March lows. This divergence was also seen in January, prior to a subsequent rally. Related articles Innergex Renewable Energy PT Lowered to Cdn$19 at RBC Capital Carrols Restaurant Group Tops Q3 EPS by 6c Goldman Sachs revises up forecast path for USD/JPY to reflect more persistent U.S. hiking cycle Sign in to access your portfolio
