Latest news with #KrishnaGuha
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 5, 2025
- Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives - Krishna Guha, Vice Chairman and Head of Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI - Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Strategy at Mizuho - Krishna Memani, CIO at Lafayette College Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, joins for a discussion on the House tax bill and how he hopes his party will look to get it passed through the Senate. Krishna Guha, Vice Chairman and Head of Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI, joins for a discussion on the outlook for the US economy and the Fed. Jordan Rochester, Head: FICC Strategy at Mizuho, reacts to the ECB decision and discusses dollar strength. Krishna Memani, CIO at Lafayette College, reacts to jobless claims and discusses how the labor market could impact US markets.
Business Times
25-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Interest costs fall for S-Reits in Q1, but US tariffs cloud outlook
[SINGAPORE] Interest costs eased for more Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) in the first quarter of FY2025, even as looming US tariffs cast a shadow over their prospects for the second half of the year. Nearly three-quarters of S-Reits saw flat to moderate interest cost declines in Q1 compared to a year ago, said Vijay Natarajan, an analyst with RHB Bank, following the release of S-Reits' Q1 results and business updates. Singapore-focused S-Reits had the largest drop in interest costs, with Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) , OUE Reit and Sasseur Reit among those that had the largest quarter-on-quarter declines. While most S-Reits have been unaffected by the global tariffs imposed by the US administration so far, there are indications that they could have an indirect impact on S-Reits in the second half of this year, said analysts. 'Tenants are cautious to sign long leases, and investment and divestment activity have slowed as buyers and sellers are revisiting underwriting assumptions,' said Krishna Guha, analyst at Maybank Securities. Q1 performance Most Reits and property trusts did not disclose distribution details in their quarterly updates. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Tuesday, 12 pm Property Insights Get an exclusive analysis of real estate and property news in Singapore and beyond. Sign Up Sign Up Nevertheless, of the 13 trusts that provided distribution per unit (DPU) figures for Q1 in their latest results or business updates, six reported year-on-year declines, data compiled by The Business Times showed. There was an almost even split across the 27 S-Reits that reported revenue growth, with 14 of them posting higher growth. Across the 31 trusts that reported their net property income (NPI), 17 registered a decline. Analysts said that the latest results reported by S-Reits were broadly in line with their expectations. The majority of S-Reits under RHB's coverage reported in-line results with operational numbers remaining 'strong', said Natarajan. 'More than half of the S-Reits that reported financials... saw positive quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year net property income growth, supported by stable occupancy and positive rent reversions,' he said. Likewise, OCBC's research team said in a note on May 15 that the overall DPU for the 10 counters under its coverage fell 2.8 per cent year-on-year. In terms of valuation, the current price-to-book ratio is still 'undemanding' at 0.82 times as it is still below the eight-year average of 0.98 times. Hospitality sector hit Analysts said the hospitality sub-sector was among the worst performers in Q1, as revenue per available room (RevPar) declined year on year due to fewer major concerts. 'This hurt hospitality S-Reits with significant geographical concentration locally,' noted OCBC. FEHT's RevPar fell 6 per cent, while CDL Hospitality Trust saw a 15.8 per cent drop compared to a year ago. On the other hand, the retail sub-sector turned in a 'resilient' performance. Darren Chan, a senior research analyst at Phillip Securities Research, said that S-Reits with suburban retail assets, which saw rental reversions in the high single digits, were supported by consumers' focus on essential spending. However, retail assets more exposed to the hospitality sector, such as those in Starhill Global Reit and Suntec Reit's portfolios, had lower shopper traffic and tenant sales year on year. This was due to the absence of high-profile events and more cautious consumer sentiment ahead of potential US tariffs. Going forward Given the uncertainties posed by the US tariffs, Maybank's Guha expects the operating trend for Q2 to be similar to Q1. Sharing his view, OCBC said that in view of uncertainty over tariffs, it is important for investors to take into consideration the quality of the asset portfolio, geographical location of assets, track record and balance sheet strength of S-Reits. However, analysts remained optimistic of the longer-term performance of S-Reits in view of falling interest rates. Chan expects S-Reits to register a year-on-year growth in their DPU in FY2026. Similarly, OCBC forecasts a recovery in DPU by 4.4 per cent on average in FY2027, assuming there is no global recession. Among S-Reits, Natarajan thinks large-cap, high-quality Singapore-centric Reits could do well. He favours industrial, office, healthcare and suburban retail sub-sectors, while hospitality is the least preferred. OCBC prefers S-Reits that can exhibit DPU growth and are backed by strong sponsors. Its top picks are CapitaLand Ascendas Reit , CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust , Keppel DC Reit and Parkway Life Reit .
Axios
11-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Global investors don't trust the U.S.
Treasury bonds and other U.S. dollar assets have acted as a global safe haven for generations. This week, global investors woke up to the possibility that they are not particularly safe, and not at all a haven. The big picture: The last nine days will reverberate through economic history, as the kind of shifts in the global trade order and financial markets that usually play out over years were compressed into each news cycle. People will write books about April 2025 the way they have about July 1944, August 1971 or September 2008. The moves in trade policy have been dramatic, with the world's two largest economies now taxing each other's imports at over 100%. If sustained, this would essentially shut down commerce between the U.S. and China. But it's the curious way bond and currency markets have interacted that gives the most alarm about the trajectory of global confidence in the U.S.-centric financial order that has prevailed since the end of World War II. State of play: In a week that stocks and other risky assets sold off, so did U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar. This is not normal. In past episodes of extreme tumult, like September 2008 and the early days of the pandemic in 2020, the dollar rallied as global investors sought safety. A key element of those crises was, in effect, a global shortage of dollars so severe that the Federal Reserve had to intervene to satiate demand, through global swap lines and emergency lending to U.S. banks. No such shortages this time around. Trading this week has displayed a "rare, ugly and worrying combination of market moves," Krishna Guha with Evercore ISI wrote. By the numbers: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.57% as of 11am ET Friday. That level is not worrying (rates were higher as recently as January) but the speed and direction of travel are. The 10-year yield was under 4% one week ago. Meanwhile, the dollar index — the dollar's value versus six other major currencies — is down 3.4% since Tuesday and 9.2% since mid-January. Those are massive swings by the standard of the most liquid global currency markets. Between the lines: It suggests that erratic leadership, ballooning fiscal deficits, and rapidly eroding diplomatic ties are making global investors wary of being too exposed to the United States. What they're saying: The market, Deutsche Bank currency strategist George Saravelos wrote, "is re-assessing the structural attractiveness of the dollar as the world's global reserve currency and is undergoing a process of rapid de-dollarization." Of note: It kind of got lost in the news shuffle given the trade and market shifts, but also this week the House passed a budget blueprint that lays the groundwork to extend President Trump's 2017 tax cuts. It allows Congress to raise fiscal deficits by up to $5.8 trillion over the next decade, relative to current law under which those tax cuts expire at year-end. The Capitol Hill action wasn't an apparent catalyst for the bond market moves. Still, it underscores the risks investors are taking by lending to a nation with already high deficits and debt. Zoom out: In the near term, it implies that investors can't benefit from the usual shelter-in-the-storm effect. If you have a portfolio of both stocks and bonds, it helps if one zigs while the other zags, but that hasn't happened this week. In the medium term, it could mean structurally higher U.S. interest rates and more market pressure to reduce deficits. In the long term, if this really does prove to be the start of a reshuffling of the global economic order, trade, and financial flows, the implications are so sweeping that they're hard to even predict. The bottom line: Markets can behave weirdly, and maybe this will turn out to be just a few bumpy trading days. But the world's most important financial markets — for the dollar and Treasury securities — are signaling that something fundamental is shifting beneath our feet.
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ST Engineering shares surge to new record following brokers' upgrades
The company has shown better operating efficiency and has also increased its final quarterly dividend payout. Singapore Technologies Engineering shares jumped to a new record high on heavy volume, extending a significant gain already seen last Friday. It reached an intra-day high of $5.91 before easing slightly to close at $5.87 on March 3. The company's shares closed at $5.04 on Feb 26, marking a gain of more than 16% since then. The gain by ST Engineering shares took place on the same day when various European defence stocks surged more than 10%, as investors bet that European countries will further ramp up defence spending with the recognition that security provided by the US cannot be assured. On Feb 27, the company reported better FY2024 earnings and also increased its final quarterly dividend to 5 cents instead of the usual 4 cents per share. ST Engineering reported better operating efficiency and guided for faster growth this current year. Krishna Guha of Maybank Securities, in his Feb 27 note, calls the FY2024 results a "strong finish". Besides his upgrade from "hold" to "buy", he has increased his target price to $5.70 from $4.70. Paul Chew of PhillipCapital calls the company "firing and flying on all cylinders", as he raises his target price from $5 to $6.10. 7% y-o-y; ups final dividend to 5 cents Brokers' Digest: CLAR, CICT, CNMC Goldmine, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life REIT, FLCT, ST Engineering RHB keeps 'buy' call and TP unchanged on ST Engineering, sees earnings growth and defensive dividend payout Read more stories about where the money flows, and analysis of the biggest market stories from Singapore and around the World Get in-depth insights from our expert contributors, and dive into financial and economic trends Follow the market issue situation with our daily updates Or want more Lifestyle and Passion stories? Click here
