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Gulf Insider

Is Syria Headed Toward Balkanization? Growing Tensions Spark Global Warnings

The situation remains very combustible and could easily explode at the slightest spark… Russia and the US rarely agree on much, but their top diplomats just sounded the alarm about Syria, which should convince objective observers that there's credence to their warnings. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that 'The situation in the Middle East is particularly troubling, especially in Syria, where groups of radical militants commit real acts of ethnic cleansing and mass executions on ethnic and religious grounds.' This was a reference to March's Kristallnacht-like killings of Syria's Alawite minority. As for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he said that 'It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they're facing, are maybe weeks — not many months — away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up.' He was likely alluding not only to the mass killings of Syria's Alawites, but recent tensions with the Druze minority and potential problems in implementing spring's national reintegration deal with the Kurds. Prior to these top diplomats' warnings, there was some cautious optimism about Syria's future after Russia was able to retain its bases there for the time being, Trump met Jolani/Sharaa, and the US and then the EU lifted sanctions on Syria. Nevertheless, the aforesaid three positive developments were still overshadowed by the abovementioned problems, which pair with the Israeli-Turkish rivalry in Syria to create a very combustible situation. To make matters worse, Russia's Khmeimim airbase was recently attacked by what Russian milblog Rybar claimed were Uzbek militants, who might have gone rogue for whatever reason but Rybar suspects that they actually intended to send a plausibly deniable hostile message from the new authorities. Whatever their true motivation might be, it shows how volatile the situation remains in Syria, which could prompt all relevant foreign stakeholders into seriously considering their contingency plans there. Also Read: US Removes Syria Sanctions In Implementation Of Trump's 'Fresh Start' Vision