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Economic Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Investor bearishness at highest levels since 2009, says Chakri Lokapriya
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Chakri Lokapriya , CIO - Equities at LGT Wealth India, shares his insights on the current market turbulence triggered by the US tariffs on global points out that fear, rather than valuations, is driving market sentiment, with investor bearishness at its highest levels since discusses the potential impact on India's economy , sectors to watch amid global uncertainties, the outlook for corporate earnings , and how investors — both domestic and foreign — are positioning themselves in these volatile times. Edited Excerpts -A) The markets resumed their fall on the 3rd of April due to the US imposing Tariffs on goods imported from 180 countries into America. The tariffs were imposed to lower trade imbalances and deficits in the U.S.A. Markets fear that Trump's tariffs could raise US inflation, pulling down economic growth worldwide. Fear is the driving force in the market rather than valuations. The 90 day pause on tariffs gives countries to reach bilateral agreements with the US and hence FY26 is likely to be very volatile.A) The Indian Govt is among 6 out of 180 countries that have offered concessions on US imports into India and would viewed positively by Trump.A) Indian Govt sources indicate a 90-day pause. Until then, 10% tariffs Goel, Minister of Commerce, leading a team working with the US Govt to arrive at a bilateral agreement. However, in the interim GDP growth is likely to slowdown by 30 to 50 bp.A) With Gold at all time highs, it is recommended to have a neutral allocation to Gold.A) The tariff uncertainty is likely to make companies pause on new capital expenditures and expansion plans until the new tariff rates are finalized over the next 90 days until June. As a result, it is likely that Corporate India would remain cautious leading to 3-5% earnings cut for FY26.A) Incrementally staggering purchases in domestic sectors such as Financial Services and consumer discretionary could be considered, depending on one's ability to put capital at risk.A) Investors are likely to remain fairly liquid and deploy on corrections. Investor bearishness is the highest since March 2009.A) While valuations are one standard deviation below 5-year averages, further fall is not ruled out until bilateral trade talk news between India and the U.S. trickle out over the next several weeks. Accordingly, markets would be volatile as they digest news flow.A) Investors should focus on companies which have strong earnings outlook, irrespective of whether they are large, mid or small cap companies.A) Interest rates need to fall further in India, which would aid as a growth catalyst. FII will return to India once they see evidence of earnings growth revival which is at least couple of quarters away.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
28-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Investor bearishness at highest levels since 2009, says Chakri Lokapriya
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Chakri Lokapriya , CIO - Equities at LGT Wealth India, shares his insights on the current market turbulence triggered by the US tariffs on global imports. Lokapriya points out that fear, rather than valuations, is driving market sentiment, with investor bearishness at its highest levels since 2009. He discusses the potential impact on India's economy , sectors to watch amid global uncertainties, the outlook for corporate earnings , and how investors — both domestic and foreign — are positioning themselves in these volatile times. Edited Excerpts - Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Q) We started off April or the new financial year on a volatile note with tariff uncertainty. What is your take on markets for FY26? A) The markets resumed their fall on the 3rd of April due to the US imposing Tariffs on goods imported from 180 countries into America. The tariffs were imposed to lower trade imbalances and deficits in the U.S.A. Markets fear that Trump's tariffs could raise US inflation, pulling down economic growth worldwide. Fear is the driving force in the market rather than valuations. The 90 day pause on tariffs gives countries to reach bilateral agreements with the US and hence FY26 is likely to be very volatile. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Free P2,000 GCash eGift UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo Q) What is your take on US Tariff introduced by the Donald Trump government. How will it impact economy and Indian markets? A) The Indian Govt is among 6 out of 180 countries that have offered concessions on US imports into India and would viewed positively by Trump. Q) The chatter of a global slowdown becomes louder with new tariff measures in place from the US. How would that impact India and global economic growth? A) Indian Govt sources indicate a 90-day pause. Until then, 10% tariffs apply. Live Events Piyush Goel, Minister of Commerce, leading a team working with the US Govt to arrive at a bilateral agreement. However, in the interim GDP growth is likely to slowdown by 30 to 50 bp. Q) Gold hit fresh record high while equity markets witnessed a knee jerk reaction post tariff announcement. Does it make sense to increase allocation towards Gold? A) With Gold at all time highs, it is recommended to have a neutral allocation to Gold. Q) Do you think earnings of India Inc. might take a hit with tariff measures which would in turn result in earnings downgrades? A) The tariff uncertainty is likely to make companies pause on new capital expenditures and expansion plans until the new tariff rates are finalized over the next 90 days until June. As a result, it is likely that Corporate India would remain cautious leading to 3-5% earnings cut for FY26. Q) Which sectors should one look for to deploy fresh money amid tariff and global economic slowdown? A) Incrementally staggering purchases in domestic sectors such as Financial Services and consumer discretionary could be considered, depending on one's ability to put capital at risk. Q) How are HNIs and big-ticket investors allocation money? Are they diversifying globally or buying treasures to protect the portfolio? A) Investors are likely to remain fairly liquid and deploy on corrections. Investor bearishness is the highest since March 2009. Q) After recent correction how is India placed among EM players in terms of valuations? A) While valuations are one standard deviation below 5-year averages, further fall is not ruled out until bilateral trade talk news between India and the U.S. trickle out over the next several weeks. Accordingly, markets would be volatile as they digest news flow. Q) How should one play small & midcaps in FY26? A) Investors should focus on companies which have strong earnings outlook, irrespective of whether they are large, mid or small cap companies. Q) What about FIIs? What is the trend you see for smart money moving back to India? A) Interest rates need to fall further in India, which would aid as a growth catalyst. FII will return to India once they see evidence of earnings growth revival which is at least couple of quarters away.
Time of India
22-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
From Trump tariffs to interest rate cycles: portfolio analytics in action to create wealth
(The author Nimish Shah is the MD- Wealth Management & Analytics at LGT Wealth India) In the last few years, Indian equities have performed very well. The Nifty 50 Index has delivered an excellent 5-year (as of 15 April 2025) price return of 21.19% CAGR. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Moose Approaches Girl At Bus Stop In Rajshahi - Watch What Happens Happy in Shape Undo During the same 5-year period, the broader market has performed even better. The Nifty Midcap 150 Index (31.95% CAGR), the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index (34.71% CAGR), and the Nifty Microcap 250 Index (47.69% CAGR) have created wealth for long-term investors. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. However, some investors are unnerved due to current market volatility . The year-to-date (1 Jan to 15 Apr 2025) returns of the above indices range from -1.34% for the Nifty 50 to -15.71% for the Nifty Microcap 250 Index. During the same period, gold and fixed income have delivered good returns. This highlights the importance of portfolio analytics . Live Events Portfolio analytics highlights the key trends and provides valuable insights that are important in investment decision-making. Role of portfolio analytics As the complexity of the Indian capital markets increases, the need for effective tools to analyse client portfolios is becoming increasingly important. Increasing market volatility is leading to fluctuations in portfolio values, which is unnerving clients. For example, in November 2024, Donald Trump was elected the US President. Since then, the Indian and global stock and debt markets have become highly volatile due to the threat of tariffs imposition and their repercussions. In this environment of heightened uncertainty, clients want to know the contributors to the rise in risk on their portfolio, which can be best provided by in-depth portfolio analytics. Portfolio analytics helps break down complex and voluminous investment data into bite-sized information. The information further helps comprehend the risks and returns in a portfolio across asset classes and products. Asset allocation: Portfolio analytics at a broader level At a broader level, analytics across asset categories brings forth asset allocation. The asset categories can include equity (listed and unlisted), fixed income, gold and other commodities, REITs and InvITs, hybrids and multi-asset class products, alternatives, cash, etc. A periodic review with portfolio analytics can identify any deviation from the risk appetite, and corrective action can be initiated. For example, if equity outperforms significantly in a particular year, its weight in the overall portfolio will increase. As a result, the weights of other classes will go down, and overall asset allocation will deviate from the base ratio. Portfolio analytics helps identify such deviations and initiate action to revert to the base asset allocation. Applying quantitative methods and using modern-day technology, portfolio analytics can analyse various parameters to bring forth the contributors and detractors to risk and returns. When backed by quality research, portfolio analytics can help objectively analyse an investment portfolio. Equity analytics Once your broad level asset allocation is sorted, portfolio analytics can help you delve into each asset class. For example, portfolio analytics for equity investments would aggregate investment at an individual stock level. Underlying investments of mutual funds and PMS would be aggregated with direct stock holdings. The resultant analytics would bring forth various aspects that affect risk and return. The equity portfolio can be designed using the core and satellite model. The core part can consist of exposure to broader indices based on market capitalisation. The satellite part can include exposure to sectors, themes, smart beta strategies, etc. One can start with the market-cap allocation across large, mid, small and micro-cap stocks. It helps understand whether the equity portfolio suits a client's investment risk appetite. The allocation to respective categories (large, mid, small, micro, etc.) can depend on various factors. Some of these include investor's age, risk profile, investment time horizon, major life events, category valuations, etc. Currently, many portfolios are skewed towards mid and small cap stocks. It is due to the superior performance of these categories in the last few years, as discussed at the beginning. However, these categories are currently seeing far more volatility than large-caps, thus unnerving investors. Now, let us move from the core to the satellite part of the equity portfolio. Equity analytics can also bring forth the sectoral allocation, thereby giving insights on under or over-allocation to sectors. For example, in the current environment, with tariff threats looming, exposure to export-oriented businesses may be reduced. On the other hand, investors can increase exposure to domestic-oriented businesses that are relatively less affected by tariffs. Portfolio analytics driven appropriate allocation to sectors based on the situation can bring more stability to the portfolio. After reviewing broad market capitalisation and sectoral exposures, with portfolio analytics, you can assess stock-level exposures to balance portfolios. Analytics can help gauge the concentration risk due to over or under-exposure to a fund manager, sector or stock. A long-term attribution and contribution analysis helps understand the performers and laggards in a PMS or a fund. And, an over-lap analysis of the underlying stocks of a fund and PMS brings forth the schemes with a large percentage of common stocks between them. When such varied analytics are available to an advisor and investor, it leads to effective, well-informed, unbiased decisions. Fixed-income analytics Fixed-income analytics will aggregate the underlying debt investments across mutual funds, direct bonds and fixed-income PMS. Credit analysis becomes even more relevant when the analytics shows the portfolio exposure across the credit curve AAA & G-Sec to C & D rated papers. Analytics can aggregate investments at a corporate group level and ensure credit risk caps and floors to manage risk. Portfolio duration and average maturity profile are analysed to stress-test the sensitivity of the fixed-income portfolio to interest rate movements. Effective decisions can be taken to increase or decrease duration and credit profile depending on the expected economic situation. For example, currently, we are in an interest rate easing cycle. Thus, exposure to long duration bonds that benefit more from interest rates moving lower can be increased. Portfolio analytics is important and indispensable In today's world of ever-changing market dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties, portfolio analytics is important and indispensable. Key trends and insights from a good-quality portfolio analytical report help investors manage portfolio risk, return and complexity effectively. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times )
Economic Times
22-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
From Trump tariffs to interest rate cycles: portfolio analytics in action to create wealth
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Role of portfolio analytics Asset allocation: Portfolio analytics at a broader level Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Equity analytics Fixed-income analytics Portfolio analytics is important and indispensable (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) (The author Nimish Shah is the MD- Wealth Management & Analytics at LGT Wealth India)In the last few years, Indian equities have performed very well. The Nifty 50 Index has delivered an excellent 5-year (as of 15 April 2025) price return of 21.19% the same 5-year period, the broader market has performed even better. The Nifty Midcap 150 Index (31.95% CAGR), the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index (34.71% CAGR), and the Nifty Microcap 250 Index (47.69% CAGR) have created wealth for long-term some investors are unnerved due to current market volatility . The year-to-date (1 Jan to 15 Apr 2025) returns of the above indices range from -1.34% for the Nifty 50 to -15.71% for the Nifty Microcap 250 the same period, gold and fixed income have delivered good returns. This highlights the importance of portfolio analytics Portfolio analytics highlights the key trends and provides valuable insights that are important in investment the complexity of the Indian capital markets increases, the need for effective tools to analyse client portfolios is becoming increasingly important. Increasing market volatility is leading to fluctuations in portfolio values, which is unnerving example, in November 2024, Donald Trump was elected the US President. Since then, the Indian and global stock and debt markets have become highly volatile due to the threat of tariffs imposition and their this environment of heightened uncertainty, clients want to know the contributors to the rise in risk on their portfolio, which can be best provided by in-depth portfolio analytics helps break down complex and voluminous investment data into bite-sized information. The information further helps comprehend the risks and returns in a portfolio across asset classes and a broader level, analytics across asset categories brings forth asset allocation. The asset categories can include equity (listed and unlisted), fixed income, gold and other commodities, REITs and InvITs, hybrids and multi-asset class products, alternatives, cash, etc.A periodic review with portfolio analytics can identify any deviation from the risk appetite, and corrective action can be example, if equity outperforms significantly in a particular year, its weight in the overall portfolio will increase. As a result, the weights of other classes will go down, and overall asset allocation will deviate from the base analytics helps identify such deviations and initiate action to revert to the base asset quantitative methods and using modern-day technology, portfolio analytics can analyse various parameters to bring forth the contributors and detractors to risk and returns. When backed by quality research, portfolio analytics can help objectively analyse an investment your broad level asset allocation is sorted, portfolio analytics can help you delve into each asset class. For example, portfolio analytics for equity investments would aggregate investment at an individual stock investments of mutual funds and PMS would be aggregated with direct stock holdings. The resultant analytics would bring forth various aspects that affect risk and equity portfolio can be designed using the core and satellite model. The core part can consist of exposure to broader indices based on market capitalisation. The satellite part can include exposure to sectors, themes, smart beta strategies, can start with the market-cap allocation across large, mid, small and micro-cap stocks. It helps understand whether the equity portfolio suits a client's investment risk allocation to respective categories (large, mid, small, micro, etc.) can depend on various factors. Some of these include investor's age, risk profile, investment time horizon, major life events, category valuations, many portfolios are skewed towards mid and small cap stocks. It is due to the superior performance of these categories in the last few years, as discussed at the beginning. However, these categories are currently seeing far more volatility than large-caps, thus unnerving let us move from the core to the satellite part of the equity portfolio. Equity analytics can also bring forth the sectoral allocation, thereby giving insights on under or over-allocation to example, in the current environment, with tariff threats looming, exposure to export-oriented businesses may be reduced. On the other hand, investors can increase exposure to domestic-oriented businesses that are relatively less affected by analytics driven appropriate allocation to sectors based on the situation can bring more stability to the reviewing broad market capitalisation and sectoral exposures, with portfolio analytics, you can assess stock-level exposures to balance can help gauge the concentration risk due to over or under-exposure to a fund manager, sector or stock.A long-term attribution and contribution analysis helps understand the performers and laggards in a PMS or a an over-lap analysis of the underlying stocks of a fund and PMS brings forth the schemes with a large percentage of common stocks between such varied analytics are available to an advisor and investor, it leads to effective, well-informed, unbiased analytics will aggregate the underlying debt investments across mutual funds, direct bonds and fixed-income analysis becomes even more relevant when the analytics shows the portfolio exposure across the credit curve AAA & G-Sec to C & D rated can aggregate investments at a corporate group level and ensure credit risk caps and floors to manage duration and average maturity profile are analysed to stress-test the sensitivity of the fixed-income portfolio to interest rate decisions can be taken to increase or decrease duration and credit profile depending on the expected economic example, currently, we are in an interest rate easing cycle. Thus, exposure to long duration bonds that benefit more from interest rates moving lower can be today's world of ever-changing market dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties, portfolio analytics is important and trends and insights from a good-quality portfolio analytical report help investors manage portfolio risk, return and complexity effectively.: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times
