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Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
90-degree weather close at hand in the Ozarks
We have yet to hit 90° in Springfield this year, but the average first 90-degree day is just days away on June 13. Parts of Western Missouri and Northwest Arkansas, however, have hit 90° already. In Joplin, 90° was achieved on Sunday, June 8, and 91° was reached in Fayetteville, Arkansas, the same day. It's not unusual for Western Missouri to reach 90° before Springfield. The average first 90-degree day in Joplin is May 29, roughly 2 weeks earlier in the year. Oddly enough, areas west of Springfield also reach 90° earlier. The average first 90-degree day in West Plains, for instance, is on June 10, and in Rolla the average first 90-degree day is June 4. The warmest temperature recorded in Springfield so far is 87°, which was recorded on June 8. The earliest first 90-degree day in Springfield was back in 1907 when the city achieved 90° on March 20. The latest first 90-degree day was on September 26, 1904! Springfield sees an average of 36 90-degree days and two 100-degree days each year. The most 90-degree days recorded in a single year was 86 back in 1954. The most 100-degree days in a single year were 22 in both 1954 and 1934. The last time Springfield recorded 5 or more 100-degree days in a summer was in 2022, when 8 days made the triple digits. There were zero in 2024 and two in 2023. These years produced an average number of 90-degree days, with 37 in 2024 and 39 in 2023. The 2025 summer outlook from the Ozarks First weather team suggests a slow start to the typical summer heat, which may result in a near-normal to slightly cooler-than-normal summer season. This is largely because it takes more energy to heat a wet environment versus a dry one. All the rain we've seen this spring may help hold back the heat a bit longer than normal. On a climatic scale, this summer pattern is shaping up to resemble 2017's pattern. We are coming off an El Niño last spring and are currently engaged in neutral conditions (La Nada). Spring 2017 came with heavy rain and flooding… Sound familiar? This led to a cooler-than-normal summer in 2017. Given the close parallel between 2017 and what we've seen in 2025, we are forecasting a cooler-than-normal summer in the Ozarks. Fingers crossed! Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
20-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hot start to summer predicted for most states. Map shows where it'll be warmest
(NEXSTAR) – Ready for summer? So is the weather forecast. A seasonal forecast released by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday shows a warmer-than-average outlook for nearly every state over the next three months. The map, which shows broad predictions for May, June and July, is colored in shades of yellow and orange. The darker the color, the more likely an area is to experience unseasonably warm weather. La Niña is over, NOAA announces. What comes next? The highest chance of hot weather is found in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. The region has a 60% to 70% chance of hotter-than-normal weather over the next three months, according to the Climate Prediction Center. A dozen states across the West, South and New England aren't too far behind, also likely to see a warm start to summer. Only a small slice of the Upper Midwest and part of Alaska are shaded in white, which indicates equal chances of three outcomes: normal temperatures, above-average temperatures, and below-average temperatures. While nearly the entire U.S. is expected to see warm weather, it's a different story for rain. West of the Mississippi, most states are leaning toward below-average rain. That's bad news for the growing drought out West. Facebook sending out $40 payments to users over 'Like button' issue The East Coast and Gulf states, on the other hand, are expected to see more rain than average over the next three months. The seasonal predictions come after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared an official end to La Niña last week. That leaves us in 'ENSO-neutral' conditions. This situation, affectionately nicknamed La Nada, means neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. Neutral 'La Nada' times can make predicting seasonal weather a bit more challenging. This less predictable, neutral status is expected to last through at least the summer. Starting in the fall, the chances of La Niña or El Niño returning start to grow. At this point, a La Niña winter looks more likely than El Niño for late 2025 and early 2026. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
18-04-2025
- Climate
- The Hill
Hot start to summer predicted for most states. Map shows where it'll be warmest
(NEXSTAR) – Ready for summer? So is the weather forecast. A seasonal forecast released by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday shows a warmer-than-average outlook for nearly every state over the next three months. The map, which shows broad predictions for May, June and July, is colored in shades of yellow and orange. The darker the color, the more likely an area is to experience unseasonably warm weather. La Niña is over, NOAA announces. What comes next? The highest chance of hot weather is found in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico. The region has a 60% to 70% chance of hotter-than-normal weather over the next three months, according to the Climate Prediction Center. A dozen states across the West, South and New England aren't too far behind, also likely to see a warm start to summer. Only a small slice of the Upper Midwest and part of Alaska are shaded in white, which indicates equal chances of three outcomes: normal temperatures, above-average temperatures, and below-average temperatures. While nearly the entire U.S. is expected to see warm weather, it's a different story for rain. West of the Mississippi, most states are leaning toward below-average rain. That's bad news for the growing drought out West. The East Coast and Gulf states, on the other hand, are expected to see more rain than average over the next three months. The seasonal predictions come after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared an official end to La Niña last week. That leaves us in 'ENSO-neutral' conditions. This situation, affectionately nicknamed La Nada, means neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. Neutral 'La Nada' times can make predicting seasonal weather a bit more challenging. This less predictable, neutral status is expected to last through at least the summer. Starting in the fall, the chances of La Niña or El Niño returning start to grow. At this point, a La Niña winter looks more likely than El Niño for late 2025 and early 2026.
The Hill
10-04-2025
- Climate
- The Hill
La Niña is over, NOAA announces. What comes next?
(NEXSTAR) – The weak La Niña that's been with us since winter has officially faded, the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. The Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said that leaves us in 'ENSO-neutral' conditions. This situation, affectionately nicknamed La Nada, means neither La Niña nor El Niño is present. Neutral 'La Nada' times can make predicting seasonal weather a bit more challenging. 'Without an El Niño or La Niña signal present, other, less predictable, climatic factors will govern fall, winter and spring weather conditions,' climatologist Bill Patzert of with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory said in a NASA post. This less predictable, neutral status is expected to last through at least the summer. Senate hearing on daylight saving time: Could the US 'lock the clocks?' Starting in the fall, the chances of La Niña or El Niño returning start to grow. At this point, a La Niña winter looks more likely than El Niño for late 2025 and early 2026. A typical La Niña winter brings dry conditions across the southern half of the country, with extra rain and snow up north (especially in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley). El Niño years are the opposite: cold, wet winters in California and the Southern U.S., but warm, dry conditions for the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley. Whether we're in a La Niña year, El Niño year or neither is determined by sea surface temperatures near the equator over the Pacific Ocean. The temperature of the water and air above it can shift the position of the jet stream, which in turn impacts the types of weather observed on land.
Yahoo
23-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Here's a look at how the 2025 hurricane season could play out
As hurricane forecasters begin to put together their first outlooks for the 2025 hurricane season, an important aspect that helps form a forecast are what are known as analog years. Analog years refer to previous seasons that can be used for comparison to better understand what to expect during the upcoming tropical cyclone season. While any year could potentially be an analog year, some years hold more weight due to the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO. The ENSO is comprised of three statuses, which are El Niño, La Niña and neutral, which is often referred to as La Nada. As a general rule of thumb, La Niña years tend to produce more tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, while El Niño years typically lead to more subdued activity. However, this is not an absolute rule, as hurricane seasons can buck trends by being more active or less active than the ENSO status indicates they should be. Entering the 2025 hurricane season, global climate models and forecasters expect the world to be in a neutral phase, having exited the current La Niña in the weeks ahead of the start of the core of the season. A neutral phase of the ENSO is characterized by sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific ranging from -0.5 °C to 0.5 °C, meaning neither warm nor cool conditions dominate the region. Looking back over data during the last four decades, years that started out exhibiting La Niña conditions but saw the ENSO transition into a neutral stage include 2018, 2012, 2001, 1986 and 1989 – this season's potential analog years. The season averages for these five years were 14.8 total storms, 8.6 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes, which are slightly above the modern-day season averages of 14 total storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Guide: Here's What To Know About The Tropics This Year So, based off of analog years and preseason information released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, all signs point to either an average or slightly above-average season, with the possibility of 2025 becoming the slowest or busiest season on record being the least likely outcome. Additional aspects forecasters can gain from analog years are the typical tracks of storm systems. In the five recent analog seasons, the Caribbean and most of the Gulf were not hotbeds of activity, while the Atlantic resembled a busy highway, but there were notable exceptions. The establishment of ridges of high pressure, troughs and other synoptic features play a significant role in determining where tropical systems will travel. Colorado State University is expected to release its first 2025 outlook on Thursday, April 3rd, followed by several other organizations in the weeks and months leading up to the official start of the hurricane season. Until then, here's a look at five recent hurricane seasons that have displayed similar characteristics to what to look for in 2025. Hurricane Hunters Increasingly Missing Mission Requirements In Powerful Storm Systems The costliest and most impactful neutral ENSO season on record occurred in 2018, with hurricanes such as Michael and Florence responsible for almost all the damage. Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina in September and was a classic Cabo Verde system that originated off the coast of Africa and made the long journey across the Atlantic. Hurricane Michael, on the other hand, developed off the Caribbean Gyre in October and quickly strengthened into a powerful Category 5 cyclone before impacting the Florida Panhandle. Michael became the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the mainland since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Elsewhere in the tropics during 2018, both the western Gulf and the Caribbean were relatively quiet, with the central Atlantic serving as a hot spot for activity. The busiest neutral ENSO year the FOX Forecast Center found from over the last four decades of data was 2012, when 19 storms formed, including Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Sandy developed in late October in the Caribbean before making its way up the U.S. eastern seaboard. At the time, it became the second-costliest U.S. hurricane, just behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The massive storm system wasn't the only cyclone to strike the U.S. mainland that year, with Hurricane Isaac also impacting Louisiana. Most of the tropical activity during the 2012 season occurred in the Atlantic, with fewer storms in the Gulf and Caribbean. The 2001 hurricane season was fairly active, with 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, but the U.S. did not experience many impacts. There were two hot spots for activity during the 2001 season: north of Bermuda and the western Caribbean Sea. Forecasters had expected neutral conditions to prevail throughout the year, ahead of a developing El Niño event, which became dominant in 2002. The 1996 season was marked by above-average activity, especially in the major hurricane category, and was a significant year for the Carolinas. The season produced 13 named storms, nine hurricanes and six major cyclones, with notable hurricanes such as Bertha and Fran. Interestingly, the initial outlooks from CSU expected the season to be much quieter than it ended up being. After the season, CSU forecasters stated: "Factors favoring an active hurricane season include low values of Atlantic basin tropospheric vertical wind shear, cool ENSO conditions, a late-season change to lower surface pressure conditions, and a continuing long-term shift in Northern and Southern Atlantic sea surface temperature conditions." Tropical activity in 1989 was near average, with 11 total storms, seven hurricanes and two major hurricanes. However, the season produced a cyclone that will forever be embedded in the history books: Hurricane Hugo. In September, Hurricane Hugo made landfall near Charleston, South Carolina, as a Category 4 cyclone with sustained winds of 140 mph. At the time, Hurricane Hugo became the costliest cyclone on record for the U.S., a title only outdone three years later by Hurricane Andrew. Hugo was one of three hurricanes that made landfall along the continental U.S. during 1989, with the others occurring in the west-central article source: Here's a look at how the 2025 hurricane season could play out
