Latest news with #LaNina
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Meteorology Monday (6-2-25): 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Elmira, N.Y. (WETM)- Happy Meteorology Monday! It's June, which means that the hurricane season has officially begun in the Atlantic basin. On this week's edition of Meteorology Monday, 18 Storm Team Meteorologist Alivia Colon breaks down the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) first hurricane season outlook and how it compares to last year's. To start, this year, there is a 60 percent chance for above normal activity, with a 30% chance for near normal activity, and the remaining 10 percent is for a below normal season. These numbers may not be high, but they do indicate that a slightly more active than normal season is possible and will need to be closely monitored before we head into peak season. Last year, NOAA forecasted a 90% chance for above normal activity by the time we got our second outlook, and that's exactly what happened: 18 named storms, 11 of which were hurricanes, and 5 were major. The forecast not only played out accurately, but we managed to do so even with an unusually quiet mid-season when activity typically peaks. If you remember, we had major storms very early in the season, and well into the late season as well. This year, our numbers only lean above average, but the chance for more activity is certainly present. This is based on factors such as warmer ocean temperatures, a forecasted ENSO neutral year, or a year without El Nino or La Nina, weaker forecasted wind changes with height, and a more active West African Monsoon forecasted, which is known to be a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes NOAA releases an outlook at the start of the season, and a second outlook before peak season, so make sure to keep an eye out for updates as the season ramps up. For more information, you can read about the full outlook and how NOAA is preparing for the season on their website here. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tropical cyclones led to rise in infant deaths in these countries, new research shows
LOS ANGELES – Families across dozens of countries are preparing this week as another hurricane season begins. However, a new study reveals even weaker tropical storms can have deadly impacts on infants and unborn children. Health economist Zachary Wagner, a University of Southern California professor, has previously studied war-torn countries and how children are affected by conflict. This latest research, published in Science Advances a few weeks before the start of the 2025 hurricane season, is part of a look at how climate and weather disasters can upend a child's life before it even begins. "There are a lot of other types of events that kind of have similar effects on our society, and natural disasters, large hurricanes are one of them," Wagner told FOX Weather. "We've also been studying things like floods and heat waves and things like that. But hurricanes really can have this devastating effect. And so we thought that kids living in an environment where a hurricane happens, like how does the health of these kids change? How long do these effects last? Is it similar to the effect of conflict?" 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Here's How Active This Year Could Be Without El Nino, La Nina Patterns Wagner and other researchers examined the effects of tropical storm exposure from 2002 to 2021 for seven of the most heavily exposed low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean, including Madagascar, India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A tropical cyclone modeling expert helped create the wind speed for a 10-kilometer by 10-kilometer cell for these countries. Then the team looked at the child health records from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program, which was completed every 5 years across 90 countries. The results showed that, on average, exposure to a tropical cyclone in utero or during the first year of life was associated with an additional 4.4 infant deaths per 1,000 live births – an 11% increase. The sharp increase was driven by increased deaths in Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, which all saw more than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births. Risks to these children were the greatest in the first year after a cyclone, according to the study. However, the deaths around the time of the cyclone were not explained by common health risks following natural disasters. "We thought that it would be things like healthcare utilization, but it could be things like spread of disease after a tropical cyclone happens," Wagner said. "There's often flooding, there's spread of diarrhea illness, respiratory illness, things that are leading causes of death rates around the world."Wagner said the research team is devising a new method to determine why even tropical storms are leading to higher infant mortality. Economic health researchers will need to utilize different data in the coming years. The Demographic and Health Surveys Program was halted under the current White House administration due to cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) funding. They also hope to understand the differences in infant deaths based on location. "There's big differences across countries," Wagner said. "Where some countries have these kind of large effects, some countries are not seeing much of an effect at all. So, trying to understand what's driving that and that might give us insights into why kids are dying in one place and not another." Hurricane Season 2025: Here Are The Names For Storms You'll See This Season Wagner explained that understanding the deadly impact a tropical cyclone can have on a young child is an important step to protecting them in the future. "There's a limited amount of resources we have to invest in protecting children," Wagner said. "It's important to know which risk factors are the most important so we can allocate resources in the most effective way. No one's very surprised, I don't think, that kids are harmed by tropical cyclones. It's kind of like a 'water is wet' situation. But at the same time, understanding the magnitude of this effect, where it's a problem, where it's not, that's important for investing resources and ranking, kind of ordering where resources should go to protect the most kids." The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 without a named storm for the fourth year in a article source: Tropical cyclones led to rise in infant deaths in these countries, new research shows
Otago Daily Times
a day ago
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
A warmer winter is on its way
Electricity bills may deliver less of a hammering this winter if Niwa's outlook for the next few months comes to fruition. It shows temperatures from June to August are "very likely" to be warmer than average this winter, meaning fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso) conditions in the tropical Pacific remained neutral at present, but there were "residual signals" that indicated weak La Nina conditions were persisting. Occasional La Nina-like atmospheric patterns might still emerge over the next three months, he said. "However, international guidance indicates about a 70% chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an Enso-neutral state over the next three-month period." He said higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure was expected to the east of the country, leading to northeasterly flow anomalies that might shift to a more northwesterly direction towards the end of the three-month period. That means seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for the winter season. "While cold snaps and frosts will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were very likely to be above average, he said. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal. Temperatures were also very likely to be above average along coastal Otago, he said. "Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal range, and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal." Mr Brandolino said for the remainder of the calendar year, Enso-neutral conditions were expected to persist. "The guidance available, however, suggests the possibility for La Nina conditions to return by summer 2025-2026." La Nina can bring more northeasterly winds to New Zealand, leading to drier conditions in the south and southwest of the South Island.
Global News
2 days ago
- Climate
- Global News
Canada's summer forecast 2025: Hot and dry conditions a concern for wildfires
Canadians appreciate the spring, fall and winter seasons, but we really cherish those warm summer months with all that extended daylight. This summer especially, many of us will be exploring our own country like never before and the weather will play an important role in where we visit and when. We are transitioning away from a La Nina in the Pacific into a neutral ENSO (recurring climate pattern in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean) for the upcoming summer. This means seasonal forecasts take on a higher uncertainty but that's not stopping most of our computer models from predicting a HOT summer across a huge swath of North America. For some Canadians, this may be excellent news, but for those already battling another very active start to the wildfire season, the situation is more dire. Story continues below advertisement Let's look at what to expect across our country for the months of June, July, and August. View image in full screen A look at the summer temperatures across Canada. Global Skytracker B.C. and Alberta A hot and dry summer will develop across southern B.C. and most of Alberta. June will be the transition month with periods of cooler (and wetter) than normal weather turning hotter/drier later in the month as the storm track shifts north. Story continues below advertisement Heat waves and even heat domes will be increasingly likely in July and August which will exacerbate the drought conditions already in place. This will also increase the risk of a very active fire season. Northern B.C. will see closer to normal precipitation and temperatures. View image in full screen A look at the rainfall expected across Canada this summer. Global Skytracker Prairie provinces Spring started off cool and wet but quickly heated up in May, leading to this extremely active start to the fire season. Story continues below advertisement Ongoing fires and smoke will continue to be a concern throughout the summer with temperatures forecasted to remain above seasonal along with below-normal rainfall. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Heat domes that feedback on the dry conditions could be a major factor in the weather pattern across the northwestern U.S. but their influence reaches into the Prairies. There is some hope for rain and cooler weather for a couple of weeks in June which may help firefighters get the upper hand with the ongoing wildfires. View image in full screen June weather could provide some relief for provinces hit hard by wildfires. Global Skytracker Ontario and Quebec May was cool and unsettled across central Canada but June will be the transition month with near seasonal temperatures along with frequent showers and thunderstorms. Story continues below advertisement Those residents without AC may experience restless nights as humidity levels increase above normal in July and August. Although daytime highs will likely remain near seasonal, the warm and muggy nights will skew the averages upward and lead to a warmer than normal summer. Heavy downpours in any daytime thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding. When these storms move over the big cities like Toronto and Montreal, urban flash flooding would occur. Both locations had major flash floods last year. NOAA is also forecasting an active hurricane season which could add to the rainfall totals later in the season. View image in full screen The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an active hurricane season in the Atlantic. Global Skytracker Atlantic Canada A mild summer is likely across Atlantic Canada with frequent showers and thunderstorms. Story continues below advertisement The Maritime provinces were spared from a hurricane hit last year even though the season was active. Another busy year is predicted by NOAA with up to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes expected in the Atlantic. Only time will tell if any of these make their way north, but Maritimers should be on the lookout from late August through September. Yukon, NWT and Nunavut Computer models are showing a higher likelihood of low pressure across Canada's far north this summer. Areas north of the 60th parallel will either see near-seasonal or even below-seasonal temperatures after a warmer-than-normal start to June. This could limit Arctic ice loss. Precipitation will also be above normal for these areas. Story continues below advertisement Southern NWT and Nunavut are further removed from the storm track and could turn hot again this year. This is concerning considering the recent fires and another active season is likely but not to the level of 2023.
1News
2 days ago
- Climate
- 1News
Daniel Corbett's winter outlook: Get ready for a wild ride
This winter could bring a bit of everything on to our table. It will be like grabbing the extra big plate at the smorgasbord to get a sample of everything from the buffet. The season's weather will feature lots of variety - from the risk of heavy extreme rainfall to Antarctic cold and some fine settled days in between. This variety will be the key feature because there's no set driving force to the weather over the next few months. Instead, we will have lots of factors jostling for space on our weather maps each week. Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+ The main driver that can influence our weather is ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation – which has now tilted back to the middle of the scale. That puts us midway between the La Nina of last year and El Nino at neutral. ADVERTISEMENT In a meteorological sense that means the Pacific Ocean, instead of being too warm or too cold, is just in the middle. Iin other words, rather than a predominant El Nino which pushes westerly winds across New Zealand, or more easterlies with a La Nina, we could have both - if not other wind directions too. The big pink elephant in the room leading into winter is the warmer than normal seas around New Zealand, and many of the areas surrounding us, that help produce our weather systems. They are currently running 1-4C above normal. Sea temperatures are generally above average currently. Courtesy NOAA. (Source: Supplied) Our warming planet has been making this quite commonplace these days. Think of warmer seas like that hotter tub of bath water with rising steam coming off it. It has more rising air because of the warmer water, which can lead to more vertical motion to help create clouds and weather systems. Warm seas ADVERTISEMENT The extreme rainfall events in Nelson and at Taree in New South Wales are very recent memories but they're also a good reminder of the stacked deck of cards that the weather now throws our way during heavy rain events. The warm seas, a more significant feed of juicy air from the tropics, and the right conditions for low pressure development combined often play a part in these rainfall events. As a result, more extreme rainfall events may not be out of the realm of possibilities again over winter. With this mix of different types of weather during the season, the extra thick merino as well as the sunglasses and thinner layers will all come in handy. Of course, the raincoats will also be a big go-to at times. Overall, the winter will be warmer than normal thanks to the surrounding seas but that won't completely keep outbreaks of cold air from making a visit at times too. This will especially be the case when a lobe of the all too familiar Polar Vortex rotates into the Southern Ocean. Brrr! The skiers might find some decent snowfall on occasion too with the right moisture feed coinciding with these cold surges. So, get ready for winter - it looks like it could be a wild ride. ADVERTISEMENT Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+
