7 days ago
Scientists issue stark warning about crisis looming over islands: 'Already irreversibly lost their natural adaptive capacity'
Scientists have delivered a sobering assessment about the future of low-lying island communities as sea levels continue to rise at an accelerated pace.
According to an article in Yale Environment 360, many atoll islands face an uncertain future, with some having "already irreversibly lost their natural adaptive capacity" due to human interference with their ecosystems.
Atoll islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans sit only three to 15 feet above sea level and face mounting pressure as sea level rise has more than doubled between 1993 and 2023. According to the Yale Environment 360 report, the sea level is projected to rise between 11 and 40 inches by 2100.
However, the news isn't entirely grim. The report mentioned that "studies of hundreds of atoll islands found that 79 percent to 89 percent were either stable or increased in size in recent decades," with the key difference being ecosystem health.
According to Yale Environment 360, some atolls have lost the ability to generate sediment, and University of Auckland ecologist Sebastian Steibl noted that "they lose the capacity to keep up with sea level rise."
These islands support critical biodiversity and human communities. As Yale Environment 360 noted, despite the atoll islands accounting for only 0.02% of the islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, they are "important refuges for a quarter of the world's tropical seabirds, multitudes of nesting sea turtles, and tropical plants," and they are home to many human cultures.
Coral reefs, which naturally produce the sediment that builds and maintains these islands, face increasing stress from rising temperatures. Coastal geographer Virginie Duvat from La Rochelle University warns in the article that polluting gases must be reduced to slow down the deterioration of coral reefs, which are the main source of sediment for islands.
Perhaps most concerning, Duvat explained that nature-based solutions cannot help the most urbanized islands, noting that once engineered approaches like concrete seawalls have been adopted, "these islands have already irreversibly lost their natural adaptive capacity."
Scientists are pioneering nature-based solutions that show remarkable promise. Researchers have discovered that healthy ecosystems create a powerful defense system. When seabird guano makes its way into reefs, its nutrients help to support coral growth and the fish populations, causing guano-fed reefs to grow faster — and produce more sediment.
Conservation efforts are already showing results. At Tetiaroa Atoll, in French Polynesia, conservationists have almost fully eradicated rats and plan to target overpopulated coconut palms with the goal of eliminating 80% to 90%, according to Yale Environment 360.
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Research by Ruth Dunn at Lancaster University shows that there is the potential to boost coral growth rates by at least 25% if they are able to restore native vegetation and eliminate rats in the Chagos Archipelago, and the report indicates the islands could become home to "more than 280,000 additional breeding pairs of seabirds."
Supporting ocean conservation efforts and reducing plastic waste that harms marine ecosystems can help protect these vulnerable communities.
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