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The Hill
13 hours ago
- Business
- The Hill
The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip
An already active start to the 2026 cycle has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks with a major retirement announcement, the passage of a key GOP priority and moves by candidates that could further scramble the chess board. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) made waves in the lead-up to the passage of President Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' by announcing he would not be seeking a third term next year, throwing the party's push of retaining the seat in flux. That was only a prelude, however, to the GOP getting its mammoth tax and spending package over the finish line by July 4, with the newly minted law set to potentially play a far-reaching role as Democrats try to tether Republicans to the Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts that were included. Here's a mid-summer look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. North Carolina By far the biggest change on this list is to the top spot as Tillis's decision to retire has further opened the door to Democrats being able to flip a seat they have long been eyeing. The seat was always considered a top-level race for both sides of the aisle, but the removal of the battle-tested incumbent from the field makes the effort more difficult for the GOP. In one clear sign of how tight the race is likely to be, the election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating from 'lean Republican' to 'toss up' after Tillis's announcement. Adding to the problems for Republicans is that the news seems to have pushed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) closer to taking the plunge, potentially giving the minority party an A-level recruit and a real chance to flip the seat. Cooper, the former two-term governor, has never lost a statewide race in six attempts. On the GOP side, all eyes are on Lara Trump, the wife of Eric Trump and a Tar Heel State native. In the eyes of multiple Republican strategists, the nomination is hers if she wants it — but whether she wants it is an entirely different question. Lara Trump had a chance to run for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in 2022, but passed on the opportunity. She was also floated as a possible appointee to fill the Senate seat of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ultimately tapped Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), an ally, instead. 'Lara Trump's very viable,' Budd recently told reporters at the Capitol, shooting down concerns that she has not lived in the state in many years. 'She's from Wilmington, she went to the same high school as Michael Jordan.' 'There's a great case to be made if she wants it. We of course would be supportive,' he added. Republicans also see an added bonus to her running: the chance to get the Trump name on the ballot, even in a midterm year. 'She has a golden last name and it's still a light red state,' one GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said. Georgia It's still early in the cycle, but Republican recruiting woes have emerged in several states, headlined by Georgia. The GOP is still in the throes of trying to figure out who will take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in a state where Republicans believe they have a real chance of flipping a seat that they shouldn't have lost in the first place. The GOP got its first major blow of the cycle when Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announced in May that he was sidestepping a Senate bid. Since then, it's been a real struggle for Republicans to find a top-tier candidate who could topple the incumbent Democrat. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has already launched a campaign, but that has done little to stop top Republicans from looking elsewhere for their party's solutions. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) indicated that he is taking a long, hard look at a bid. Some Republicans are also hoping that Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, a former House member, gets the campaign itch once again. 'Georgia's going to be really tough. … Ossoff is not the best candidate, but he's figured out the way to make it work for himself and the state is changing. It's going to be very difficult,' said a second GOP operative who has worked on Senate races. 'You feel worse about Georgia than you do North Carolina — for sure,' the operative said 'Who's going to emerge [in the primary]? I think Jon Ossoff's a better candidate than I think people anticipated when he first got elected.' 'Not having Brian Kemp hurts,' the operative added. In fact, Democrats see Ossoff being a real net-positive in this race, especially given the uncertainty on the GOP side. Putting icing on the cake, the first-term Democrat raised more than $10 million between April and June, marking his second consecutive quarter with an eight-figure haul. He has $15.5 million in the bank. 'He's passionate. He cares. He fights for his state. … 'He's committed. He listens to them. He hears what their challenges are and he comes here to solve those problems,' said Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) when Ossoff won his race in 2020. 'That's a recipe for success in your state. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the only Republican defending a seat in a blue state next year, has had a difficult month. First, Republicans were able to pass the 'big, beautiful bill' without her support, putting her on record opposing cuts to Medicaid that could harm rural hospitals — but on the defensive back home about the GOP bill. Most recently, she voted against a White House request to claw back funding after repeatedly warning that the Trump administration was not going into enough detail about the impact of the cuts, which largely impact foreign aid and public broadcasters. As Senate Appropriations Committee chair, she is also trying to shepherd government funding through Congress amid accusations from Democrats that Republicans are poisoning the well with the bill to claw back funds. Democrats allege Collins is intentionally making moves to appeal to both sides. 'It's not an accident that Susan Collins is failing to stop the toxic GOP agenda,' said Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party, in a statement. 'It's a carefully orchestrated political ploy to keep her seat while cutting Medicaid and delivering tax giveaways to billionaires. 'At the end of the day, Donald Trump and Washington Republicans know Susan Collins will have their back,' he added. Amid all of that, though, Collins can take solace at a few things heading into the second half of summer. A poll conducted by Pan Atlantic Research in May of 840 likely voters found her favorability rating four points above water in Maine And Democrats still do not have a candidate ready to take her on. Many in the party are pinning their hopes on Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) taking the plunge, but the 77-year-old has given little oxygen to the idea of a run. Absent Mills, the options are limited. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) made clear months ago he has no plans of challenging Collins. For now, the best chance for Democrats to take Collins down is seemingly for her to opt for retirement. Senate Republicans and operatives, however, believe she will seek a sixth term and find it hard to believe she will depart only months after securing the Appropriations gavel — her dream job. They also know that without her, the seat is most likely gone. Texas The Lone Star State is the lone new inclusion on the list as questions surround the political future of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). Cornyn finds himself down by double digits in numerous polls to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), sparking fears among the GOP that Democrats have a real opening to nab a white whale: a Senate seat in Texas. To be sure, the four-term incumbent has a long history of success, especially in general elections. He's also a prolific fundraiser. Still, Republicans are nervous about whether he can overcome his opponent, who has been a MAGA stalwart — and who they believe will be a weaker general election candidate. 'Worried,' one Senate Republican told The Hill when asked about the mood within the GOP conference about Cornyn's reelection chances, adding that members are also concerned about the amount of money it will cost to help lift him out of the polling hole. Cornyn is facing a crucial stretch as his supporters go to the airwaves in a bid to determine the path forward. A Cornyn super PAC went up on the air on Wednesday, the first of a series of expected ads that is part of an effort to improve Cornyn's numbers and damage Paxton's. According to a third GOP operative, the hope is for some clarity in the race to arrive around Labor Day. Texas notoriously has an early candidate filing deadline — Dec. 8 this year. In that time, Cornyn's team must quickly figure out a cohesive message (or messages) to wield against Paxton, who is considered a walking opposition-research book among many Republicans even as he has an intense backing amongst some MAGA voters. The Texas AG was acquitted by the state Senate in 2023 after allegations of political bribery. He was also charged with securities fraud in 2015, with those eventually being dismissed earlier this year. Those problems were only highlighted in recent weeks when Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator and Paxton's wife, filed for divorce 'on biblical grounds,' citing 'recent discoveries.' 'The hard part of running against Ken Paxton … is there are so many things — it's hard to know which thing you have to center on,' the third GOP operative with experience working on Senate races said, arguing that chipping away at the populist Christian vote is crucial for the incumbent. This has prompted GOP leaders to prod Trump in search of an endorsement to boost Cornyn, but even the senator has admitted that doesn't seem to be coming yet. According to the strategist, Trump has made it clear in recent weeks that if he endorses anyone, it would likely be Cornyn. Awaiting the eventual nominee will likely be former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who lost last year to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 8.5 percentage points even with massive Democratic spending in the state. If Paxton emerges to the general election, both sides of the aisle view this as a competitive race. 'Right now, it looks like Ken Paxton wins that primary, at least on paper. The other thing that same piece of paper shows is that Colin Allred beats Ken Paxton — and it can happen,' the second GOP operative said. Some are pushing back on that narrative, however. 'Even with the worst case scenario in Texas, the fundamentals remain solidly red just more expensive,' one national Republican strategist said. Michigan The battle to replace the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) rounds out the list as Democrats find themselves in the midst of a nasty primary while top Republicans look to avoid one by boosting former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), their preferred candidate. Democrats are in the early stages of a three-way primary between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens has opened the race as a slight favorite according to early surveys, with McMorrow and El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), trailing not far behind as they attempt to stake out their lanes and boost their name-ID in quick order. When asked to handicap the race, GOP operatives largely agreed on three things: that Stevens would be the toughest general election opponent, McMorrow has the biggest boom-or-bust potential in the field and that the best chance for Republicans to flip the seat involves El-Sayed becoming the nominee. 'He's going to invigorate their base. You've got to draw a stark contrast and you've got to hope you win enough independents. That's the game,' the first GOP operative said about El-Sayed. 'You need someone who's going to terrify our base.' Still, Rogers remains a question mark for some Republicans as they wonder why he could be successful this cycle after not being able to get across the finish line last year, when Trump was on the ballot and the environment was considered more favorable for Republicans. 'I don't know what changes that gives us an edge without him on the ballot,' the second strategist said. Some of Rogers' woes from the 2024 bid are also cropping up this cycle, headlined by lackluster fundraising that prompted complaints from many corners of the party during his initial Senate run. The former congressman only raised $745,000 in the second quarter and has $1.1 million in the bank. He raised an additional $779,000 for his joint fundraising account. By contrast, Stevens, McMorrow and El Sayed posted at least $1.8 million hauls, with the congresswoman leading the way with $2.8 million — $1.5 million of which was transferred from her House account. Rogers also might be facing a primary in short order as Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) is gearing up for a challenge. Still, while it's been decades since a Republican won a Senate seat in Michigan, the national Republican strategist contended the state is trending in their direction. The strategist noted that Sen. Elise Slotkin (D-Mich.), who defeated Rogers in 2024, won by less than 0.5 points after having the benefit of evading a competitive primary. 'While some speculate Texas is trending blue, the data tells a different story—Michigan remains the more competitive battleground,' the strategist said.
Fox News
3 days ago
- Politics
- Fox News
ICE agents condemn Democrats' efforts to expose their identities as calls for violence increase
Print Close By Madison Colombo Published July 17, 2025 Amid growing hostility toward immigration officials, Lara Trump met with ICE agents to hear their side of the story. "We do have to worry about watching our backs," one agent told Trump during the interview, set to air Saturday on "My View with Lara Trump." "People film us for only one reason," he continued, "to try and push other people to do harm on us." The agent condemned those calling for the release of the identities of ICE officers, saying it would lead to violence against immigration enforcers. BORDER AGENT AMBUSH SHOWS DEMS NEED TO 'TONE DOWN RHETORIC,' WHITE HOUSE SAYS, PUSHING AOC TO MEET WITH ICE "I mean, there's no other reason why you would take a picture of someone and post it somewhere, other than to put them on blast," he said. His concerns come as calls to expose the identities of ICE officers continue to gain traction among Democrats, with DHS accusing one lawmaker of doxxing an officer. ICE AGENT SHARES FEARS ABOUT FAMILY SAFETY AS ASSAULTS ON OFFICIALS SURGE During a raid on a marijuana facility in California earlier this month, violence erupted between protesters and officers. One agent was hospitalized with a hand injury after demonstrators threw objects at ICE. In a press release, the Department of Homeland Security called out Rep. Salud Carbajal, D-Calif., who attended the protest. ICE officials allege that Carbajal doxxed an ICE public affairs specialist after the officer handed him a business card. Carbajal reportedly held up the card and showed it to the crowd, revealing the officer's identity. The agent was later struck by a rock and injured, going to the hospital for a hand laceration. The lawmaker has denied the doxxing accusation, calling it a "blatant attempt to distort" the events at the protest. In a published statement, Carbajal said: "ICE's claims of 'doxxing' and 'violent mobs' are attempts to deflect attention from their unjust tactics, distort the facts to support misleading narratives, and avoid accountability for their aggressive actions that caused injuries and left our community traumatized." DHS FIRES BACK AT DEMOCRATS FOR 'BEYOND THE PALE' RHETORIC AS ICE AGENTS FACE WAVE OF VIOLENT THREATS Lara Trump addressed the push to expose ICE officers' identities on "Outnumbered" Thursday, saying the calls for transparency are rooted in wanting to perpetrate violence against the agents and their loved ones. "There's no other reason, as I said, that you would do this other than to have harm come to these people, come to their families," she said. Despite the latest threat, however, Trump said the agents remained in good spirits and devoted to the Trump administration's immigration agenda. "The really incredible thing," said Trump. "I found after sitting down with these gentlemen is that despite all that they've gone through, despite all the hate thrown towards them, the physical violence, they all say morale within their agency is at an all-time high." She credited that shift in attitude towards having a commander-in-chief devoted to boosting immigration security. "They have a president, a commander-in-chief, who believes in their mission and has their back, and it makes all the difference." Print Close URL
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump tells those focused on Epstein he doesn't want their support
President Donald Trump on Wednesday trashed many MAGA members, condemning their ongoing push for files related to Jeffrey Epstein and bemoaning that they are playing into Democrats' hands. The Democrats' 'new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this 'bullshit,' hook, line, and sinker,' Trump posted on his Truth Social account. 'Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats' work, don't even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success, because I don't want their support anymore!' Trump's comments underscore the angst on the right over the Justice Department and FBI's decision to withhold files related to Epstein, the disgraced mega-financier who pleaded guilty in 2008 to soliciting a minor for prostitution and was facing a slew of federal sex-trafficking charges when he killed himself in jail in 2019. A Department of Justice memo last week– which ruled out foul play in Epstein's death and claimed no existence of a 'client list' – enraged and divided MAGA world after many in Trump's orbit, including Attorney General Pam Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino, teased big revelations and fanned conspiracy theories. Conservative influencers including Megyn Kelly, Steve Bannon, and Trump's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, have called for more transparency in the case. Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday also called for the Department of Justice to release all of its information on Epstein. Later on Wednesday, when asked during a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office if his post meant he was disavowing his supporters, the president said he had 'lost a lot of faith in certain people.' Trump continued to defend Bondi during the meeting and again downplayed the affair. 'She's done very good,' Trump said. 'She says I gave you all the credible information, and if she finds any more credible information, she'll give that too. What more can she do than that?' Trump's latest post attempts to link the Epstein case to the investigation into Russian collusion during his first term, a signal that the president hopes supporters will interpret as tying to partisan hoaxes together. 'These Scams and Hoaxes are all the Democrats are good at,' Trump said in his post. CORRECTION: A previous version of this article misspelled the name of Lara Trump.
News.com.au
4 days ago
- Politics
- News.com.au
‘Weaklings': Trump turns on his own base as Epstein fallout continues
In a furious tirade, Donald Trump has called some of his own supporters 'weaklings' and accused them for falling for a 'bullshit … scam' as the fallout from the Epstein files continues. The US president's blistering attack on what he calls his 'past supporters,' come as a Republican politician makes a push to release the remaining documents related to finances and child sex offender Jeffry Epstein. Mr Trump is facing the most serious split of his political career from his famously loyal right-wing base over suspicions that his administration is covering up lurid details of Epstein's crimes to protect rich and powerful figures they say are implicated. Last week, the US Department of Justice concluded Epstein's 2019 death in a New York prison was indeed a suicide, there was no so-called 'client list' and there would be no further documents releases. Yet earlier this year, Attorney-General Pam Bondi said she had the Epstein client list on her desk. She has now back tracked and said it was simply related documents. A number of senior Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Mr Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump have said more Epstein documents should be released, even if they contain no incriminating information. 'Weaklings' But on Wednesday, US time, Mr Trump took to social media to suggest that Republicans focusing in Epstein were falling for a Democrat 'hoax'. That's despite Mr Trump talking about the 'Epstein files' on the campaign trail and his own officials repeatedly mentioning them now they are in office. '(The Democrats) new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this 'bullshit,' hook, line, and sinker,' he write on his social media platform Truth Social. 'They haven't learned their lesson, and probably never will, even after being conned by the Lunatic Left for 8 long years. 'I have had more success in 6 months than perhaps any President in our Country's history, and all these people want to talk about, with strong prodding by the Fake News and the success starved Dems, is the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax. 'Let these weaklings continue forward and do the Democrats work, don't even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success, because I don't want their support anymore!,' he raged. MAGA fury The comments under his Truth Social posts are often full of praise for Mr Trump. But under Wednesday's Epstein post criticism was rife. One poster said the Epstein case was 'why Trump won' and a third of his support could now vanish. 'Promises broken,' said another echoing Mr Trump's frequent refrain of 'Promises kept'. 'Trump is a globalist elite himself' was a further comment. Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, a frequent Trump critic, announced on Wednesday he will push for a vote in Congress to release the documents. The Justice Department would not be compelled to do so but it would increase the pressure on the administration which is already feeling the heat from some of the MAGA base that are convinced that the Epstein files will reveal a cabal of secrets and could sink people they deem as opponents. Bondi 'needs to explain that' House Speaker Mike Johnson, usually close to Mr Trump's views, has not contradicted the president but has urged the White House to release any documents. 'It's a very delicate subject, but we should put everything out there and let the people decide it,' Mr Johnson told a podcaster on Tuesday. He also referenced Ms Bondi and her comment that she had Epstein's 'client list'. 'She needs to come forward and explain that to everybody.' Mr Trump has defended Ms Bondi but has said that it is her decision now on whether further files are made public. – with AAP.
News24
4 days ago
- Politics
- News24
Under pressure, Trump urges Bondi to release ‘whatever she thinks is credible' on Jeffrey Epstein
US President Donald Trump asked the US Justice Department to release information on Jeffrey Epstein. Trump is under pressure from his base over his handling of the case. Daughter-in-law Lara Trump called for 'more transparency' from the administration. US President Donald Trump said Tuesday the US Justice Department should release all 'credible' information from its probe into notorious sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein as he sought to douse a firestorm of criticism from his supporters over his handling of the case. Trump is facing the most serious split of his political career from his famously loyal right-wing base over suspicions that his administration is covering up lurid details of Epstein's crimes to protect rich and powerful figures they say are implicated. 'The attorney general has handled that very well,' the Republican leader said of Pam Bondi, who leads the Justice Department, when he was asked about the case at the White House. Trump repeated his claim that the Epstein files were 'made up' by his Democratic predecessors in the White House - even though he said multiple times during the election campaign that he would 'probably' release them. 'She's handled it very well, and it's going to be up to her,' Trump said. 'Whatever she thinks is credible, she should release.' Trump's latest comments mark a softening of his stance - he had voiced frustration in the Oval Office and online about his supporters' fixation on Epstein and pleaded with them to move on. 'I don't understand why the Jeffrey Epstein case would be of interest to anybody,' Trump told reporters on Tuesday night. It's pretty boring stuff. Donald Trump The president's 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) movement has long held as an article of faith that 'Deep State' elites are protecting Epstein's most powerful associates in the Democratic Party and Hollywood. Trump has faced growing outrage since his administration effectively shut down Epstein-related conspiracy theories, which have become MAGA obsessions. The Justice Department and FBI said in a memo made public earlier this month there is no evidence that the disgraced financier kept a 'client list' or was blackmailing powerful figures. They also dismissed the claim that Epstein was murdered in jail, confirming his death by suicide, and said they would not be releasing any more information on the probe. Laura Cavanaugh and Handout/various sources/AFP It marked the first time Trump's officials had publicly refuted the stories - pushed for years by numerous right-wing figures, notably including the FBI's top two officials, before Trump hired them. Beyond angering supporters, the issue has opened a schism within his administration, sparking a fiery blow-up between Bondi and Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino, who is said to be considering resigning. Trump's attempts to take the sting out of the controversy have largely failed, with far right influencers continuing to criticise him online. Even his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, a Fox News host, has called for 'more transparency' from the administration. Trump's most powerful ally in the US Congress, House Speaker Mike Johnson, pushed on Tuesday for the administration to release more information about the case, and his stance has been echoed by multiple Republicans. 'We should put everything out there and let the people decide,' he told MAGA influencer Benny Johnson's internet show, calling on Bondi to 'come forward and explain' apparent discrepancies in her statements about the case. Bondi told Fox News in February a list of Epstein clients was on her desk for review, before backtracking and saying that no such list existed. Epstein died by suicide in a New York prison in 2019 after being charged with sex trafficking. Trump - who has denied visiting the US Virgin Islands home where prosecutors say Epstein sex trafficked underage girls - said ahead of his election he would have 'no problem' releasing files related to the case. Asked whether Bondi had told him if his name appeared in a file related to Epstein, Trump said 'no', adding that Bondi has 'given us just a very quick briefing'.
