3 days ago
Boeing, Boeing Gone?
In the annals of American industrial might, Boeing has long stood as a symbol of engineering excellence and national pride—pioneering jet travel, dominating the skies, and contributing to military superiority. But in recent years, the aerospace giant has found itself grounded—figuratively and literally. A combination of fatal crashes, production faults, regulatory clashes, and executive turmoil have battered the company's reputation and balance sheet. The Alaska Airlines door plug blowout in early 2024 and relentless media scrutiny added further fuel to a narrative of decay.
To many, Boeing became a cautionary tale of what happens when engineering takes a back seat to financial priorities. But in markets, especially those as cyclical and sentiment-driven as aerospace, despair often precedes opportunity. Could this be one of those times? Could the market be underestimating Boeing's path to redemption—and the value waiting on the runway? It is certainly a question being considered by Laurium Capital's global research team.
Let's look at the wreckage before we consider the recovery. Financially, Boeing is still operating in the red. The company has made annual losses since 2019 and forecasts for 2025 remain negative. For a company once known for predictable profitability, this is sobering. Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS), previously a bulwark, has suffered through years of charges tied to troubled contracts such as the KC-46 tanker and Starliner. Though the first quarter of 2025 showed no new charges, margins in this business segment remain fragile.
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And yet, there are signs that Boeing is slowly rebuilding altitude. Most notably, the company is progressing in ramping up production of its workhorse 737 MAX. Production rates are stabilizing around 38 planes per month with a pathway toward 42 by early 2026 and potentially even 47 within the year. This recovery in production volumes is critical, as the 737 MAX remains a key earnings and cash flow driver. Likewise, the 787 Dreamliner, one of the most advanced commercial planes ever built, is expected to see material upticks in production numbers by the end of the year.
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CEO Kelly Ortberg, appointed to steady the ship, has instilled a focus on execution and engineering discipline. His message at a recent conference which the Laurium global research team attended was one of pragmatism: Boeing isn't rushing to launch a new aircraft but is instead laser-focused on delivering existing programs reliably, clearing certification hurdles, and winning back customer confidence.
Importantly, this potential upside is not just about numbers—it's about sentiment. Boeing is still something of a 'momentum stock.' Its share price has historically surged ahead of fundamentals when the market senses an inflection point. The company's history bears this out: rapid climbs in 2017 and 2021 occurred before tangible improvements in earnings. Today, investors may again be positioning ahead of a visible operational turnaround.
Risks, of course, remain. Supply chain hiccups could stall the ramp-up. Further FAA scrutiny could introduce delays. And geopolitical flashpoints—especially concerning deliveries to China—could bite. Boeing's past overpromises linger in investor memory. The road to recovery is rarely linear.
Still, the building blocks are taking shape. Boeing's enormous backlog—somewhere close to half a trillion dollars—isn't going anywhere. Neither is global demand for fuel-efficient jets in a rapidly ageing fleet environment. Liquidity has improved, management is steadier, and the execution narrative is shifting from apology to progress. For investors with the stomach for turbulence, Boeing might just be preparing for a long-overdue ascent. DM
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