2 days ago
Nolan Schanuel, Andrew Abbott among the fantasy baseball surprises of the past month
Last week, a reader asked me to review split statistics. I hadn't done it yet because we have been dealing with a relatively small sample size. However, after the first month of the season, we were able to make roster decisions rationally. Ipso facto, it stands to reason that the past month (plus a few days) of data is at least something we should consider.
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I don't like overfitted models. You dump everything into it, and pretty soon, you're recreating reality perfectly. We want as few filters as possible, so there are just a few outliers, and not everyone performs in fantasy exactly as they do in the model, making the model worthless.
I also wanted to give some love to weekly head-to-head leagues, so I've included strikeout and walk rates for both pitchers and hitters. Even if you are in a straight Roto league, the better hitters aren't going to strike out at a relatively high rate and walk at a meager rate — I'm looking at you, Pete Crow-Armstrong.
For pitchers, I sorted by total pitches in this sample period (I only wanted starters), and hurlers needed an xwOBA under .300 (the catch-all hitting stat bucket), a K rate over 25% and a BB rate under 9.5% (averages are about 22% and 8.5%, respectively).
For hitters, players needed an xwOBA of at least .360 (average is about .330), a K rate under 21%, and a BB rate over 8%. I set the plate appearance filter at 100 for the split.
This trimmed the list of my Lebowski Urban Achievers to 21 hitters and 19 pitchers — perfect. Most of them are, 'Yeah, no duh, he's great, buddy.' But that's what we want — just three or four surprising players, given the company they're keeping.
The period sampled is May 1 through June 2.
Will Warren (NYY): He was bombed by the Dodgers and was rage-dropped in some leagues with a real full-season ERA/WHIP of 5.19/1.43. But his xwOBA, which is a proxy for xERA, is better than some big names on this list, especially Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who has been good in expected stats). He has a 33.9% K rate during the period, along with a 9.4% walk rate. We wish the walks were a full tick lower, but that's livable. He's widely available.
Kevin Gausman (TOR): His full-season ERA is pushing 4.00, but he's at 3.19 for the sample period, though it should be under 3.00. I wrongly wanted no part of Gausman in March. He's still very good and probably better than most of his managers think. The bet here in a trade is that his ERA for the balance of the year will push 3.00, not 4.00. So, a mid-level hitter and a perceived higher-level pitcher for a high-level hitter and Gausman, which is a great trade if you need some overall category fuel. You would bet that Gausman ends up being as good as the much-better-perceived starter, or close enough.
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Andrew Abbott (CIN): The smart people are convinced Abbott, viewed as a bottom-of-the-rotation real-life starter in March, is way over his skis given his absurdly low ERA. Yes, that ERA is more than a run better than his xERA, but xwOBA and even WHIP say he's earned a 3.00 ERA, which is great. He's basically the budget version of Yamamoto now. So, Yamamoto and a meh hitter for Abbott and a top hitter is a great trade, and you're leaning into the perception that Abbott is grossly lucky (he's actually legit good). He's still somehow only 79% rostered on Yahoo.
Grant Holmes (ATL): Another reliever-to-starter conversion success story — like the other Holmes, Clay. Do you have to worry he's going to hit an innings wall? Look, we have to worry about all pitchers. He's resting between starts. He's a grown man. I think he can pitch 5-to-6 innings every 5-to-6 days. No one is being asked to be Cy Young anymore. You used to be able to spot the guys who were hurt by looking at those in the 180-innings range, and now that innings level is getting you on the leaderboard. He's only 45% rostered on Yahoo.
Nolan Schanuel (LAA): He's just 9% rostered. He's a weird player. My podcast partner, Scott Pianowski, compared him to Mark Grace, the former Cub. But anyone with an xwOBA over .400 for any reasonable period must be rostered in all formats, and especially in weekly leagues. He has about 13-HR power for a full season. However, his expected average is .332 in this sample period, with 14% walks, and— wait for it — 9.1% Ks.
Cody Bellinger (NYY): I have to take my punishment here. I was making fun of Bellinger as a No. 3 hitter during draft season. He's been great, especially in the past five weeks or so. An 11.9% K rate is crazy good. His expected slugging percentage is higher than his actual one, at a robust .562 during this period. Remember that this is not even park-adjusted, and his park helps him.
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL): Playing every day now, he's hitting .357 with an xBA of .337 for the period — just unreal numbers. His K rate is 17.5%, and his BB rate is 11.4% — both are great. He's one of the few things working out for Baltimore and will probably be trade bait in real life in short order, given the O's are going to be sellers.
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Jake Meyers (HOU): Just 8% rostered, Meyers is playing every day. His xBA and xSLG for the period are .307 and .505 (he's actually hit .327). He has just a 14.7% K rate. I think he's about 15 homers pro-rated going forward — so let's call it 10. He's a top-60 outfielder in all formats and probably top-30 in Points/H2H formats. The Astros didn't really believe until recently, so you're forgiven.
Miguel Vargas (CHW): He's just 11% better than the league average in a depressed run environment on the South Side, so it's understandable why he's only 43% rostered. But he made the grade here, so I sign off on rostering him in all formats. For the period, his xBA is .281 with a .519 slugging. His K rate is a great 13.7%, and the walk rate is average. For the full year, his expected stats do not pop as well. But he is barreling the ball at the 60th percentile, and it's even better per plate appearance.
Jesús Sánchez (MIA): He's just 9% rostered. He's barely passing through my filters, but he made it. And he's not just an expected stats guy but has actually been real-stat good in the period (.304/.457). I think his power is average or better. He also runs. I've given myself lashings here, but I did recommend Sanchez in draft season.
(Top photo of Nolan Schanuel: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
