Latest news with #LeoFeler
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's why the cool inflation print isn't exciting markets
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed that price increases slowed in April. But as Numerator chief economist Leo Feler explains in the video above, the data may be too backward-looking to excite Wall Street. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. This PCE report that came out today, it's backward looking. It's looking at what happened in April, right? And so, in April, that's still way too early for uh any of the tariffs to have had any kind of meaningful impact uh on uh consumer price inflation. What we expect uh is that as firms deplete the inventories that they built up and and we also saw that firms built up a lot of inventory in January, February, and March. Um it's really going to be uh as those inventories are depleted, as firms are starting to bring in uh additional goods coming in from abroad. That's when the tariffs are likely to start having an impact. And so we're really thinking about uh perhaps later in June, July, August and on things that are going to be uh produced uh abroad. You have to think about things are going to be like back-to-school shopping, backpacks, apparel, computers. Um those are the the the items that would really start uh showing some kind of inflationary impact and as you said, I think the Fed is right to look through these current numbers because they're talking about what could have been the case. You know, had it not been for these trade wars, had it not been for some of the policy uncertainty. Um and they're really waiting to see whether or not there will be this uptick in inflation going forward so that they don't make the same mistake again uh of thinking that, you know, there might be a temporary inflation shock, transitory inflation, that turns out to be much more persistent as we had uh in 2021 and 2022.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's why the cool inflation print isn't exciting markets
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed that price increases slowed in April. But as Numerator chief economist Leo Feler explains in the video above, the data may be too backward-looking to excite Wall Street. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariffs: How American families, parents will be impacted
The Trump administration's introduction of new tariffs will impact American families and parents, increasing the cost of many household goods, experts say. Economists and researchers say the cost to Americans will be significant, with estimates ranging from nearly $4,000 to almost $8,000 per household. An analysis from The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates the latest April 2 tariffs, which levies at least a 10% minimum tariff on countries apart from Canada and Mexico, will cost American households an extra $3,800 this year, an increase of approximately 2.3%. Meanwhile, Leo Feler, a chief economist for consumer research firm Numerator, told ABC News U.S. consumers will end up bearing the brunt of the cost of increased tariffs if new policies remain. "Since we import about $3 trillion worth of goods, if we are taxed at an effective rate at about 30% on these goods, if tariffs are effectively around 30%, collectively, American households and American businesses are going to pay an extra $1 trillion per year," Felder said. "That's about $7,700 per household in addition that we are paying for imported goods." How much it costs to raise a child in the US Various foods and household items, from fruits like bananas to staples like oats, are expected to increase in price. The Consumer Brands Association, which represents the consumer packaged goods industry that makes household, personal care, food and beverage products, said in a March letter to the Trump administration that some food product costs will inevitably increase because certain ingredients aren't available in the U.S. "While CPG companies make every effort to source ingredients and inputs from U.S. farms and suppliers, some key ingredients and products simply are not available in the U.S. Products like coffee, oats, cocoa, spices, tropical fruits and even tin mill steel (used to manufacture specialty food and household product cans) are some of the more obvious examples of where lack of domestic supply necessitates imports," the trade group said in part, adding, "Similar issues impact household and personal care manufacturers, in terms of specialty component parts that go into making products like diapers, cleaners, lotions and more." Baby formula and diapers appear not to be exempt from new tariffs so far, but tariffs on infant formula products have been temporarily lifted in the past, such as in July 2022, when Congress enacted the Formula Act amid the baby formula shortage at the time. Some diaper brands like Pampers' diaper products are made in the U.S. but some of the material components are imported. The cost of baby and children's products, from furniture and toys to car seats and safety products, are likely to increase if new tariffs continue. Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association, the industry trade association for baby and children's products, says "critical" safety products for kids including car seats and cribs and their components, which are often made in China, will negatively impact American families and is urging the Trump administration to consider tariff exclusions for such products. "Tariffs, particularly those on Chinese imports, will negatively impact product categories like car seats and cribs that safety experts unanimously agree are critical to keeping babies and young children safe," JPMA Executive Director Lisa Trofe said in part. "Tariffs will mean higher costs for consumers, placing a heavy and unnecessary burden on families that will undoubtedly result in fewer babies and toddlers having access to products critical to their safety." Trofe added that the impact of tariffs can be "devastating" and lead to safety risks if families turn to used safety products instead or even forego them completely. A group of Democratic lawmakers, including House Rep. Kelly Morrison of Minnesota, has also called for exclusions on tariffs of children's products they called "necessities," such as kids' furniture like high chairs and cribs and safety products such as car seats, which are mandated in all 50 states. The lawmakers issued a letter to Trump's administration on April 1 and pointed to past tariff exclusions for such products seven years ago. "Notably, the first Trump Administration has previously recognized the necessity of excluding baby safety products from tariffs, when the United States Trade Representative exempted some of these goods from Section 301 tariffs in 2018," the letter said in part. "We hope that the Administration will take to heart its promise to lower costs for American families by taking similar action to exempt these products from its blanket tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China and invest in American-made baby safety products." With tariffs rising, here's what you can do now to prepare When it comes to toys, the Toy Association, a leading nonprofit representing the U.S. toy industry, told "Good Morning America" about 80% of toys come from China and that the association is calling for zero tariffs on toys, which they call "essential products" for children. "Toys are essential products for childhood development and early education, and our industry works tirelessly to ensure these products remain safe and accessible," Kathrin Belliveau, a chief policy officer at The Toy Association, said in a statement. "Working with toy associations around the world, we are reaffirming our aspiration for toys to remain tariff-free globally." ABC News has reached out to the Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Agriculture for comment. Trump's tariffs: How American families, parents will be impacted originally appeared on
