28-05-2025
‘A shocking situation' – global heating could surpass 2C level for the first time in next five years
Scientists had hoped 2024 would not be repeated for some time but now say there is unlikely to be any respite.
They say the record, which saw 2024 become the first full year when global average temperatures breached the 1.5C of warming threshold, is very likely to be beaten by 2029.
Worse still, there is a small chance that a full year could breach 2C.
'It's exceptionally unlikely – something like a 1pc chance,' said Dr Leon Hermanson of the UK Met Office which carried out the analysis with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
'But we are now in relation to 2C where we were in 2015 in relation to 1.5C.'
In 2015, it was thought highly unlikely that the 1.5C threshold would be breached much before 2030 but warming occurred much faster than expected.
'We are really very close now to having 1.5C years commonplace,' said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office. 'This is a shocking situation and there is even a chance now of 2C.
'It's the first time we have ever seen such an event on our computer models. It's still exceptionally unlikely but it's now possible. It was effectively impossible just a few years ago.'
The 1.5C threshold refers to the amount of extra heat the world now holds compared to pre-industrial times before emissions from fossil fuel burning rocketed.
It causes major changes in ice-melt, rainfall intensity, storm strength, heatwaves and droughts.
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The world's countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 pledging to keep warming to as close to 1.5C as possible and not to let it rise to 2C but warming and impacts have accelerated faster than expected since then.
Warming is not spread evenly across the globe but the impacts have knock-on effects internationally.
Arctic warming outstripped the global average last year and could be 3.5 times the global average in the next five years, accelerating ice melt further.
Predictions to 2029 are for an upset to traditional rainfall patterns, with wetter than average conditions in the Sahel – the region that stretches across Africa below the Sahara – and drier than average conditions in the normally rain-abundant Amazon.
The scientists acknowledge than unforeseen events could derail their predictions – such as a major volcanic eruption spewing ash that blocks the sun and holds down temperatures.
But they warn the overall trend is clear that the planet is warming and will continue to do so without a rapid and dramatic end to emissions.
'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record,' said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.
'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.'
