Latest news with #LeviSilvers
Boston Globe
08-04-2025
- Science
- Boston Globe
Here's why forecasters are warning of another active hurricane season after last year's devastating storms
This year, 'the higher-than-average forecast is really a combination of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in key regions of the Atlantic and the expected lack of El Niño during the peak of the season,' said Levi Silvers, research scientist at CSU. Advertisement El Niño typically creates a hostile environment for hurricanes to develop by increasing wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. Strong winds aloft can disrupt the vertical transport of air and moisture needed for storms to take shape. Colorado State University's 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook compared to 2024 actual storms. Boston Globe 'We expect, overall, more instances of favorable conditions for hurricanes to form this season,' Silvers said. Researchers say it's still way too early to predict a repeat of hurricane intensity that we saw last year Advertisement The CSU outlook does predict higher odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. than usual: at 51 percent. Sea surface temperatures When forecasting for tropical cyclones, meteorologists not only look at sea surface temperatures to provide important clues, but they also study the equatorial trade winds and the presence of a La Niña or El Niño to provide insight. Forecasters also study previous seasons to help them form a clearer and more long-term picture. Because hurricanes' main fuel is warm water, ocean surface temperatures can dramatically impact how strong the winds are across the Atlantic and inhibit or promote storm development. Sea surface temperatures are currently running above average across the tropical Atlantic, though considerably cooler than the back-to-back record years of 2023 and 2024. Despite the cooler water temperatures, the trade winds are expected to slow, meaning sea surface temperatures will warm up in the coming weeks. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean are notably cooler than last year at this time. Dr. Kim Wood Essentially, we still have more fuel than normal to support storm development, but not as much as we have seen in recent years. El Niño and La Niña El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a naturally occurring climate pattern across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, off the west South American coast, that oscillates back and forth every two to seven years, greatly influencing and disrupting the weather across the U.S. and worldwide. They cause predictable shifts in ocean surface temperature. However, forecasters said the most probable phase for the hurricane season ahead is neither La Niña or El Niño. Models are pointing more toward 'neutral conditions' that make the forecast more dependent on sea surface temperatures. Advertisement '(Neutral conditions) can still produce active seasons, and we anticipate just that this season,' said Silvers. The ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) outlook suggests neutral conditions will be in place during peak hurricane season - August through October. CSU/IRI A There is a better chance for a La Niña to return by the tail end of hurricane season, but the overall chances remain low and may end up being a little too late to have much of an impact on the storms we see this season. Neutral conditions are forecast through hurricane season, with a slight chance for La Niña to emerge late in the season (October to December). IRI Meteorologists also lean on clues from the past to support what might occur in future hurricane seasons, and when you compare historical records that had similar meteorological factors in place, it's called analog years. CSU researchers found six years — 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017 — each of which averaged about 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. But this year, CSU is forecasting an increased number of named storms and hurricanes than the average from the analog years for two simple reasons — the air and ocean are both warmer. The next CSU hurricane forecast update is scheduled for June 11. Globe Weather HQ will release its hurricane forecast in the coming weeks. Ken Mahan can be reached at
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average, researchers predict
Researchers are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, likely producing stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year but at the same time with less intensity expected than last season. The annual prediction is closely watched in Florida and other coastal states at risk when hurricane season officially starts June 1. Experts at Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team estimate that nine hurricanes will occur over the course of the upcoming season, with 17 named storms overall. Four of the hurricanes are predicted to be major — meaning a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 3 hurricanes are those with sustained winds that reach 111 to 129 miles per hour, enough to cause devastating damage. Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, and the most catastrophic Category 5 storms reach 157 mph or higher. Hurricane activity this year is expected to be roughly 125% higher than the 1991-2020 season average, according to the report. One of its authors, Levi Silvers, told CBS News that jump is significant, albeit slightly lower than the 2024 activity prediction, which was 130% higher than the 19-year average. "It's a noticeable and important difference, because it matters for people along the coastlines whenever we have an above average season," Silvers said. "But I think what's really important to understand here is that the amount of hurricanes that are occurring in the Atlantic and in the Gulf fluctuates a lot from decade to decade. As long as we've been paying attention to hurricanes, we've noticed that they fluctuate a lot from year to year." Warm sea surface temperatures were the primary driver for this year's above-average hurricane forecast. That was also the case in 2024, when Silvers said the measurement was "off the charts." "It was super warm, warmer than we've really seen before," he told CBS News, adding that, this year, "they're still warmer than normal, but the temperatures have come down since last time. So that's one of the main factors, why we're forecasting less [activity] than last year, but it's still above average." The researchers' prediction recognizes that "considerable uncertainty" still exists as to the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle. El Niño is the warmer half of the cycle, an alternating pattern of contrasting climate shifts defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation in a block of the equatorial Pacific that depart from the neutral norm. La Niña, the inverse of El Niño, is the colder phase of ENSO. Weak La Niña conditions are currently present in that part of the tropical Pacific, but the CSU researchers said they anticipate those will transition to neutral conditions over the next couple of months. The likely absence of El Niño, which often is associated with conditions that disfavor hurricane activity, could mean the coming season is more conducive to hurricanes. "We usually flip between El Niño and La Niña, and we think that later in the season, it's going to be kind of neutral between the two of those," said Silvers. "But we don't know for sure. That's actually one of the sources of uncertainty in our forecast. Trying to figure out if it's going to be a neutral state, or El Niño or La Niña is part of the challenge." Atlantic hurricane season happens annually in North America, beginning June 1 and ending November 30. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, scientists have pinpointed that timeframe as the window where hurricane activity peaks in the Atlantic Ocean. Both Colorado State University and NOAA, the federal agency responsible for weather forecasts, release predictions each year before the season gets going. Usually their estimates more or less align. Referencing recent budget and staff cuts at the federal agency, Silvers told CBS News that NOAA's data is integral to the university's research. "A lot of what we do with this forecast is really fundamentally dependent on the observations that NOAA collects all around the globe, but especially in the oceans," he said. "And so it really would be pretty much impossible to get a good forecast for future hurricane seasons without NOAA's observational network." Authors of "Autism Out Loud" on motherhood, diagnosis and growth on the spectrum Democratic-backed candidate wins record-breaking Wisconsin Supreme Court seat Tucker Wetmore on first No. 1 hit and debut album
