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Economic Times
23-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Canada elections 2025 results: Mark Carney-led Liberals expected to register majority win, claims new polls
Liberals to benefit from NDP collapse and Bloc slip Tight regional contests could shape final outcome Public backs Carney on US ties as key issues remain tight Live Events FAQs: (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Prime Minister Mark Carney-led Liberal Party could be on its way to secure a clear majority in the upcoming federal election in Canada, according to YouGov's claims. After trailing the Conservatives for months, it is now being claimed that the Liberals have surged ahead. They are expected to secure a win on projected 182 seats—enough for a 21-seat majority. The shift marks a major political comeback, driven by Carney's fresh leadership and strong public approval of his handling of recent US-Canada trade tensions. With just days left before Canada Elections 2025, momentum appears firmly on the side of the Liberals are expected to benefit from sharp drops in support for both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois . Jagmeet Singh's NDP is projected to secure just four seats—its worst-ever result—while the Bloc may fall to 23 ridings, down from 34 in 2021. The Conservatives are expected to secure 133 seats for the second position as they fall short of government formation. The Green Party stands to persist with one seat, along with other political factions maintaining their small Liberals will secure 11 ridings from Bloc Québécois, while the Conservatives will win only one. Support for Conservatives in the Greater Toronto Area indicates promising results, although they anticipate losses to the Liberals in both Bay of Quinte and Niagara. The New Democratic Party (NDP) faces serious challenges in British Columbia because the province is leaning toward Liberal and Conservative party wins. The Liberal Party is predicted to capture Burnaby Central from Singh, while Green Party incumbent Elizabeth May stays in power to represent Saanich—Gulf Canadian public trusts Carney most in his handling of US-Canada relations since he successfully resisted Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. New polling data from YouGov indicates 41 per cent of Canadians put their faith in Carney concerning this issue, but only 26 per cent trust Poilievre. The competition regarding domestic policies, such as housing and inflation, shows minimal differentiation between Carney and his opponents. In terms of inflation management, Carney has a nine-point edge, yet their positions regarding housing are almost equivalent.A hung parliament remains a realistic scenario, according to simulation results that show an 11 per cent probability, while the Conservative Party attaining a single-party majority occurs only in 1 per cent of cases. The voting day for Canada approaches on April 28 as YouGov plans to publish its final election prediction on April Liberals' recovery is largely attributed to Prime Minister Carney's handling of U.S.-Canada relations , particularly his firm stance on recent trade tensions, and his shift in leadership that resonated well with Liberals have surged due to Mark Carney 's leadership and strong public approval of his stance on U.S.-Canada trade issues, particularly against recent tariffs from Donald Trump.
BBC News
23-03-2025
- Business
- BBC News
Five things to look for in Canada's election
Canada's general election campaign is underway, a 36-day sprint taking place in unprecedented circumstances. Voters will be mulling which party should govern the country just as the US - its neighbour and largest economic partner - launches a trade war and President Donald Trump muses about making Canada the 51st US state. Domestic issues like housing and immigration will still be important, of course, but for the first time in decades, Canadians will also be grappling with fundamental questions about the country's future when they head to the ballot box on 28 April. Here are five things to watch as the campaign unfolds. The Trump effect The ties between Canada and the US have been remarkably strong - until now. The neighbours share deeply integrated economies, a long-standing security partnership and the longest "undefended" border in the world. So when President Donald Trump says he wants to use "economic force" against Canada, calls the border an "artificially drawn line" and imposes tariffs on imported goods, it marks a profound shift in the relationship between the two allies. "It is impossible to overstate the impact of the president's actions on Canadian politics, on Canadian psyche, on Canadian business," said Marci Surkes, chief strategy officer at public affairs firm Compass Rose and a former policy director to ex-prime minister Justin Trudeau. That means this general election is as much about the US's relationship with Canada as it is about domestic policies within Canada Sunday, all the party leaders focused their campaign launch messages heavily on the US threats. What Trump says and does over the next few weeks will inevitably factor into the race. On April 2, for example, in just the second week of campaigning, the White House is expected to announce more global tariffs. His interventions have already reshaped politics in Canada, helping transform what seemed like a certain Conservative victory into a too-close-to-call battle with the US president weighed in recently, telling Fox News host Laura Ingraham - without naming either major party leader - that the Conservative is "stupidly, no friend of mine" and that it may be "easier to deal actually with a Liberal". Ultimately, he added, who wins "doesn't matter to me at all".Who's who in Canada's federal election Which leader will stand up to Trump? Canadians know their next PM will have no choice but to deal with Donald the question on many voters' minds is: Who can most capably handle the unpredictable US president? The contest essentially boils down to two men: Liberal Mark Carney and Conservative Pierre Poilievre. Two other major parties will be contesting seats in Parliament - the left-leaning New Democrats (NDP) and the the Bloc Québécois - but Canadians have historically elected Conservative or Liberal Green Party and the People's Party of Canada are also in the race. Carney and Poilievre have very different resumes. Carney is a former central banker who is new to politics - after taking over from Justin Trudeau, he became the first prime minister in Canada never elected to Parliament. He brings experience on the world stage but lacks time spent in the cut and thrust of political campaigning, and will get his first real test in this general election. If the Liberals fail to win the election, he could have the shortest tenure of any PM in the country's 45, became party leader in 2022. First elected to the House of Commons at age 25, he has two decades of experience in federal politics, including time in cabinet, and is known for his political was quick to highlight the pain that inflation was inflicting on Canadian families, and capitalise on the broader anger at Trudeau and the Liberals on issues like tag line "Canada is broken" has in recent weeks become "Canada first". The shift in message from a country in decline to one of patriotism and strength comes as he tries to portray himself as able to stand up to Trump. He is "the consummate retail politician", Ms Surkes said, but "suffers from having - right now - a brand and a narrative that no longer fits the moment". Who can present a compelling vision for Canada? This election is about the big, national questions: Canada's sovereignty and what the country must do to face an uncertain future with uncertain allies. It's the first time in decades that an election is not focused mostly on domestic issues, said Ms Surkes. She pointed to the 1988 election, when Canada's relationship with the US was also at the centre of debate as the country mulled joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, a trade pact that was the precursor to the current trilateral USMCA. "The same types of questions were being asked in terms of whether there would be a forfeiture of Canadian sovereignty, economic sovereignty, economic independence," she said. This time, both parties are pushing a vision of growth - building much-needed housing, moving forward on major energy and resource projects, and bolstering Canada's defence capabilities. They each speak of being willing to retaliate as Canada best can against US where are the differences?Carney, who has moved the Liberals more towards the political centre as he sought to distance himself from Trudeau's record. He has promised to "spend less and invest more" and to boost capital investments in things like housing, and military infrastructure and computing resources. Poilievre, a fiscal hawk, is taking a small government approach by focusing on cutting red tape and taxes to boost industry and spur infrastructure investment and home building. The Conservatives have also focused more sharply on issues like crime. Cost of living concerns haven't gone away The major domestic concerns that Canadians have had in recent years - affordability, housing, healthcare - remain. But pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said they have been subsumed by the "existential threat" of the trade war with the US. Two words - Trump and tariffs - "sum up the psyche of the country right now", he said. He adds: "Even if the cost of living is still the top issue, it may not be as powerful a motivator to drive voting behavior." So the parties will need to come up with convincing policies to address these concerns - but frame them in the context of the wider economic Trump levies on Canada's exports, the uncertainty caused by their on-again-off-again nature, and Canada's C$60bn in counter tariffs, are already being felt by businesses and communities across the country. This week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development more than halved its growth outlook for Canada this year and next due to the growing tariff threat. Will the election stay too close to call? National opinion polls have seen a stunning reversal in recent weeks, with the Conservatives losing the 20-point lead they had over the Liberals for the better part of a year. As the race officially begins, it's a toss-up. Mr Coletto said three factors led to the "perfect storm" in polling: the resignation of the deeply unpopular Trudeau, the Liberal leadership race which that sparked, and the return of Donald Trump to the White latter was by far the main driver "fundamentally shifting the trajectory of Canadian politics", he candidates now are trying to "bring their enemies to the battlefield", he added - Carney is seeking to paint Poilievre as a "Trump-light", while Poilievre suggests Carney is "just like Justin". Both campaigns have some natural advantages, he said. The Conservatives have "an animated base who desperately want a change in government", along with a well-funded political machine. The Liberals currently "have the advantage on narrative" that has helped shift the polls more in their favour. The other two official parties - the NDP and the Bloc - have both seen their popularity diminish. The left-leaning NDP, which had 24 seats at dissolution, helped prop up the Liberal minority government in recent years in exchange for support for progressive policies like dental care for low-income Canadians. But leader Jagmeet Singh has been pushing hard against Carney, seeking to frame him as someone who will "protect billionaires and big business". Bloc leader Blanchet said on Sunday he would fight for Quebec companies and workers struggling under US tariffs, especially in the aluminium industry. One issue may cause fireworks in the campaign - an east-west energy pipeline. Western Canada is keen to build more capacity to gets its product to market, but the infrastructure in widely opposed in the province. As Canada gears up for an election this year, the BBC wants to hear from voters across the country. Tell us here if you would like to be part of our coverage.
