Latest news with #Lukyanov
Telegraph
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
Trump has Putin trapped, and the Kremlin knows it
It has now been almost a week since US forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities and Russia is still sitting on the sidelines. Beyond the strongly worded condemnations of the US attacks and promises of unspecified help to the Iranian people, Vladimir Putin has not announced deliveries of any specific military hardware to Tehran. That, despite the fact that, in January, Moscow and Tehran signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, which includes military-technical cooperation. What gives? For now, the heat appears to have gone out of the conflict, but Putin still faces a conundrum. The Iranian regime remains in a precarious position, and it is uncertain that the current ceasefire will hold. Failing to deliver tangible support to Iran could result in Russia losing an ostensibly valuable ally, friendship with whom Moscow likes to brandish as a bogeyman whenever it wants to threaten the West. But if Putin were to decide to help Tehran re-arm, perhaps providing new air defence systems to replace the ones destroyed over the past few months, it would likely anger Donald Trump, who may decide to beef up supplies of lethal aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. In an interview with the Russian publication The Gazette, Fyodor Lukyanov, prominent Russian political scientist, revealed the thinking behind Putin's decision to do nothing. 'Russia has a strategic partnership with Iran, and very fragile and significant relations with the American administration have begun to develop.' In addition, however, Putin has working relations with the Israeli leadership. Making a choice was 'clearly not part of the Kremlin's plans,' he said. Indeed, a realpolitik-minded Putin maintained cordial relations with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, a fellow pragmatist, until former US president Biden caused a rift between Moscow and Tel Aviv by pressuring Israel to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine. Putin has long maintained a careful balance between Iran and Israel, by keeping an open partnership with the ayatollahs and an undeclared alliance with Israel. He views both as strategically valuable to Russia's geopolitical influence in the Middle East. Putin's decision calculus is also shaped by the fact that Israel has one of the largest Russian-speaking populations outside of Russia. The transactionally-minded Russian strongman is carefully threading the needle by paying lip service to Tehran via a diplomatic song and dance. Before the strikes, Putin offered to Trump to mediate an end to the hostilities between Israel and Iran, an offer that the US leader promptly rebuffed. A day after the strikes, having met with Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, in the Kremlin, Putin promised to make 'efforts from our side to provide support to the Iranian people,' without authorising the provision of specific war-fighting capabilities. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, responding to questions from journalists about the kind of assistance Russia was willing to provide to Iran, was equally cryptic and non-committal: 'Everything will depend on what Iran will need.' When pressed on whether Russia is ready to supply weapons to Iran, including the S-300 and S-400 air defence systems, Peskov repeated 'everything depends on what the Iranian side, what our Iranian friends say'. On Monday, during the annual St Petersburg international economic forum, Putin tried to justify Russia's neutral stance on the conflict by saying 'almost two million people from the former Soviet Union and the Russian Federation reside in Israel,' calling it an almost Russian-speaking country'. He accused those who call Russia an unreliable ally of being 'provocateurs'. Some Russian media outlets have sought to portray Putin's decision-making as having nothing to do with Washington. But others have revealed concerns about Trump's potential retaliation. One publication expressed fears that, if the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds, Trump will have leverage to pressure Putin on a Russia-Ukraine settlement. Putin's decision not to directly aid Iran – at least for now – is especially significant in light of the fact that Iran sent substantial deliveries of weapons to Russia for its war against Ukraine. They include short-range or close-range ballistic missile systems, the Fath 360 missile system, and 'kamikaze' drones, Shahed-136 and Shahed-131. Iran's assistance enabled Russia to reserve more advanced missiles with longer ranges for other purposes, allowing Moscow to better use its arsenal throughout the battlefield in Ukraine. Lack of reciprocity by Moscow suggests that Putin is gravely concerned about the possibility of US ratcheting up support to Ukraine. It also indicates that Trump is quietly building a deck of cards to play against Putin when the time is right. Perhaps they will help him to finally fulfil his promise of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst, formerly with the US Defense Intelligence Agency. She is the author of 'Putin's Playbook', Regnery 2021. Her upcoming book 'Trump's Playbook' will be published later this year. Rebekah's podcast Trump's Playbook is running on her channel Censored But Not Silenced and is available on most social media platforms @Rebekah0132.
BBC News
11-03-2025
- General
- BBC News
How bad could the tanker collision be for the environment?
How bad could the collision in the North Sea of an oil tanker and a cargo ship be for the environment?Environmental organisations and the UK authorities are assessing the potential fallout for marine species and nearby wildlife populations from toxic it's still too early to tell whether this will have a major impact, a lot will depend on exactly which and how much of these substances were on the ships and how much has spilled. What might be onboard? Maritime operations company, Crowley, which was managing the oil tanker the MV Stena Immaculate, has confirmed that it was carrying 220,000 barrels of jet fuel in 16 containers at the time of the was not clear on the status of all the containers but Crowley said one had "ruptured" and was leaking fuel into the sea. The contents of the cargo ship, the Solong, which crashed into the tanker have been less List, a shipping data company, said on Monday that it was carrying sodium cyanide. But on Tuesday Ernst Russ, owners of the cargo ship said: "We are able to confirm that there are no containers on board ladened with sodium cyanide."There are four empty containers that have previously contained the hazardous chemical and these containers will continue to be monitored."It remains unclear if the ship was carrying other contents at the time of the crash. What are the dangers of jet fuel and sodium cyanide? Jet fuel is a toxic substance that can be lethal to marine organisms and other animals like seabirds if level of toxicity is dependent on the crude oil that it has been refined cyanide, which is used in industry including for metal cleaning, is a also a toxic substance and poisonous for living organisms as it disrupts cell function and leads to oxygen starvation. Sodium cyanide is also highly soluble in water and it can react vigorously to produce the gas hydrogen cyanide - which is also toxic. The confirmation that it was only empty containers on board will allay some concerns about environmental damage and make the clean-up operation third consideration for authorities will be whether the fuel used to run both ships - the bunker fuel - has also leaked fuel is a lot heavier than jet fuel and can remain in the environment for Lukyanov at the University of Reading, UK, said. "Marine diesel can smother habitats and wildlife, affecting their ability to regulate body temperature, potentially resulting in death.""The environmental toll could be severe," he said. What mitigation can be taken? The Marine Accident Investigation Branch is overseeing the operation to respond to the incident and clean up any pollution. Melanie Onn, the MP for Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) is currently doing an evaluation of the contamination risk and working with the owners of both of the vessels to plan a salvage Alastair Hay, emeritus professor of environmental toxicology at the University of Leeds said: "The priority, I imagine, for the crews trying to contain the damage, will be to extinguish the fires and keep vessels afloat. This will reduce the quantity of chemicals entering the water and the risk for wildlife downstream."The fire that broke out following the crash will have helped to burn off some of the jet fuel but also could be preventing the counter-pollution effort beginning immediately. Frode Vikebø, research manager at the Institute of Marine Research said that the UK government will be modelling the spread of any contaminants at sea, considering ocean circulation and weather conditions, as part of "standard procedure".In terms of mitigation he said there are different options available: "A skirt can be used to limit the horizontal spread and also the use of dispersal, which are chemicals that reduce the size of any droplets and also make the pollutants go down into the water column and prevent them remaining at the sea surface."What we've learned about cleaning up major oil spills What wildlife may be affected? The collision happened within an environmentally rich area - both for marine species but also onshore populations of birds who feed on fish and other aquatic Humber Estuary is a site of special scientific interest and along with Bempton Cliffs Nature Reserve supports more than half a million birds annually including pink footed geese, puffins, avocets and bar-tailed godwits. Within the wider marine environment at this time of year there are breeding seals and harbour porpoises. Martin Slater, Director of Operations at Yorkshire Wildlife Trust said the time of the year that this spill has occurred is particularly worrying."Many birds are gathering offshore on the sea ahead of the nesting season and we still have wintering waders – plus migrant birds stopping here – so we're very worried indeed about the threat to these birds," he said. There is also concern for wildlife further south of the incident to which the jet fuel may spread depending on the wind and sea conditions. The area off Lincolnshire's coast is "a unique habitat for fish where seabirds and cetaceans feed" explained Mr experts have pointed out that animals do have reactionary mechanisms that mean the noise and smell of the crash will have alerted them to dangers and they could have already vacated the area.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Kremlin signals efforts to sway Trump towards accepting Putin's demands
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Kremlin is signalling efforts to pressure former US President Donald Trump into conceding to Vladimir Putin's demands while attempting to elevate Putin's status as Trump's equal in global affairs. Source: an ISW report Details: ISW analysts examined the intent behind a 30 January interview released by the Kremlin-aligned Russian news agency TASS with Fyodor Lukyanov, research director at the Valdai Discussion Club. Titled Don't count on big agreements, the interview reflects the Kremlin's continued attempts to influence both domestic and international perceptions ahead of future talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The report notes that the Valdai Discussion Club serves as a forum where Kremlin officials, Russian scholars and foreign officials and scholars convene to discuss global affairs. The platform has long been instrumental in the Kremlin's strategy to sway Western policy in Russia's favour, ISW adds. The ISW points out that Lukyanov, a senior member and research fellow at the Valdai Club, has repeatedly moderated Putin's annual Valdai speech and is considered an "authoritative voice" on the Kremlin's foreign policy goals and objectives, although he holds no official position in the Russian government. It is noted that ISW is not prepared to assess or claim that Lukyanov has reliable information about Putin's mood or intentions for future peace talks, "but Lukyanov's statements in this interview are generally consistent with Putin's and other Kremlin officials' statements about Russia's future negotiating positions". Quote from ISW: "TASS' decision to leverage Lukyanov's interview to dampen domestic speculation about the possibility of a peace agreement in the near future also highlights the relevance of this interview and Lukyanov's statements when considering Russia's possible negotiating positions vis-a-vis Ukraine and the United States." Details: In the interview, Lukyanov claimed that the key issue in future peace talks on Ukraine is "not the territories" but the "root causes" of the war, which he attributed to NATO's eastward expansion in the 1990s and early 2000s. Lukyanov claimed that with regard to Ukrainian lands, Russian forces now believe that "with the territories, everything is clear: how much you take is yours," reinforcing the notion that the Kremlin has no intention of negotiating over its territorial occupations in Ukraine during future peace talks. Lukyanov remarked that "Trump only respects those who show steadfastness" and urged the Kremlin to "never give in" and brace for a "fairly tough conversation, even including elements of [a] bluff," calling on Putin to demonstrate his resolve in future talks with Trump. Quote from ISW: "Lukyanov's interview supports the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to force Trump into acquiescing to Putin's demands that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation and the weakening of NATO and Putin's personal efforts to position himself as Trump's equal on the international stage."Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on 30 January entitled Don't count on big agreements, highlighting the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about future negotiations between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Lukyanov stated during the interview that the "main thing" for future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine is "not the territories" but addressing the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov defined as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s. People's Republic of China (PRC)-based companies continue to supply Russia with critical materials needed to sustain Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on 28 January defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously outlined. The US military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Kurakhove and in the Dnipro direction. Support UP or become our patron!
