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New York Times
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- New York Times
Top 5 fantasy football breakout quarterbacks, including Caleb Willams and two more former No. 1 picks
Who's next? We ask this question every year in fantasy football. Who's the next breakout quarterback or surprise QB1? While it's nice to draft a super stud and eliminate any worries, there is a bit more joy in finding late-round value that returns Top 10 numbers. Not only do you look smart, you get to lord it over your league mates, as you didn't have to sacrifice early-round value at RB or WR. Here are my Top 5 potential QB breakout candidates for 2025, with a 'likelihood' score of it happening. Case For: We saw improvements in Williams when Thomas Brown took over after the Shane Waldron firing nine games into the 2024 campaign. Now Ben Johnson arrives from Detroit, bringing his offensive mind, plus weapons Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland were added in the draft. And let's not forget, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze were already in the fold. With Johnson as the offensive coordinator, the Lions were Top 8 in passing yards per game in 2022, then second in 2023 and 2024. Williams' 2022 season at USC was otherworldly, with 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns through the air, as well as 382 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. The ability, surrounding talent and coaching give Williams real Top 5 upside. Advertisement Case Against: As was the case in his final season in college, Williams ran around in the pocket (instead of upfield) and tried to force plays too often. That included ill-advised heaves downfield, often turning into interceptions. I made the argument that Williams had the best group of weapons for a rookie quarterback, and yet, he still struggled. While there were improvements after Waldron was let go, Williams regressed somewhat down the stretch. It's common for quarterbacks to need a half to a full season before showing complete improvement with a new offense or coach. QB1 Likelihood: 7/10 Case For: Rushing upside. Maye has Lamar Jackson upside. Now, don't pick up your pitchforks yet — I merely mean on a per-touch basis. Maye won't run for 1,000 yards, but he can sit in the 700-800 range with a handful of touchdowns. The Patriots added Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, TreVeyon Henderson and help on the offensive line. Weeks 6-16 of Maye's rookie season — excluding Week 8 when he was concussed — he averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game, which would have been QB13 in FPPG, ahead of Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa … and with one of the league's worst receiving corps. Case Against: Given his health and off-field concerns, Diggs is no guarantee to help. Williams is an intriguing rookie, but not without concerns, and could be no more than a Zay Jones type. Among QBs with a minimum of 100 attempts, Maye had the 12th-highest off-target percentage (12.1% — tied with Spencer Rattler and just behind Will Levis at 12.3%). The Patriots offense could limit Maye's ceiling with one of the heavier rushing attacks and lower-scoring offenses, given head coach Mike Vrabel's tendencies — the Titans ranked higher than 22nd in plays per game just once in his tenure and were in the bottom four in four of his six seasons. QB1 Likelihood: 6/10 Case For: Young was Top 8 in fantasy points and FPPG from Weeks 13-18. The Panthers drafted the consensus top wideout, who also doesn't play corner, in Tetairoa McMillan. Promising wideouts Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker enter their second seasons, plus Adam Thielen is back. We saw Young's comfort level improve, especially during those final six weeks, when his air yards per attempt was 9.6 (8.8 career). Young was relaxed and smart, throwing a touchdown in every game from Weeks 8-18, and he ran for 208 yards and five touchdowns over his final eight games. Advertisement Case Against: The rushing upside appeared to be part of his potential, but he never achieved it in college or through his first 22 NFL games. Young still makes some errant throws, as evidenced by his 60.3 completion percentage, which dropped to 38.9% when attempting passes of 15+ air yards. The league is leaning more into zone coverage, and Young was one of the worst performers against it with just 64.8 Comp% (40th among QBs with a minimum of 40 attempts) and 9.2 yards per completion (42nd). McMillan should be great, but he's a rookie, and Legette or Coker needs to make a significant improvement this year … or Thielen could dip his toes into the fountain of youth. QB1 Likelihood: 4.5/10 Case For: Liam Coen + Travis Hunter + Year 2 Brian Thomas. Coen is a significant piece of the Baker Mayfield resurgence story. Lawrence was one of the most highly touted quarterbacks of the past decade. There is a rushing ceiling he still hasn't hit, as Lawrence has the ability for 500+ rushing yards and a good chunk of touchdowns … if he ever finds his Clemson comfort level. There were signs of it finally clicking for Lawrence before his injury last season, particularly with a low OFFTGT% for throws of 15+ AirYD (21.1%, ninth lowest of 34 qualified QBs). Case Against: It's been three and a half seasons of Lawrence looking like a replacement-level quarterback. He had the fourth-worst passer rating and was just 26th of 34 QBs in touchdowns per attempt when not pressured. If Lawrence doesn't run more, he'll need 4,000+ yards and close to 30 passing touchdowns to reach QB1 status. QB1 Likelihood: 3/10 Case For: Penix is a great passer with similarities to Matthew Stafford, and he shows nice ability with downfield throws. Albeit in a limited sample, Penix was second in AirYD/ATT at 10.2 (behind only Anthony Richardson at 12.2) and fourth in yards per completion at 12.7. Even more impressive is Penix's YD/Comp jumped to a league-high 17.3 when under pressure. Clearly, he has a strong rapport with Drake London, targeting him 39.8% of the time in three starts, with just 15.4 OFFTGT% and a production line of 22-352-2 on the 39 targets to London. Also, Bijan Robinson is a legit threat in the passing game. Case Against: Atlanta has one of the more questionable receiving rooms with London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud (or Khadarel Hodge) as the top three options. Kyle Pitts is part of that group, but he's looking to save his career after bombing every year since his rookie season. Even with Zac Robinson coming over from the Rams, the Falcons still had the ninth-lowest passing rate last year (54.4%). Again, it's a small sample, but that number dropped with Penix at the helm, to just 51.0% — sixth-lowest — in those final three games. Lastly, Penix offers very little on the rushing side, likely to add 150 or so yards and a touchdown or two. QB1 Likelihood: 2/10 (Top photo of Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Bears rookie WR Luther Burden has strong message for doubters
The Chicago Bears got one of the biggest steals in the 2025 NFL draft with wide receiver Luther Burden III in the second round, a selection that's being hailed by draft analysts everywhere. Many had Burden pegged as a top-three receiver and first-round prospect, but the Missouri product didn't hear his name called on Day 1. Luckily for the Bears, who simply couldn't pass on Burden when he was sitting there at 39th overall, even though receiver might not have been at the top of their list. Advertisement For Burden, he certainly has a chip on his shoulder after not being drafted in the first round -- he went back to the practice field after not hearing his name called -- and he issued a warning to the rest of the league. Get ready to pay for it. "No, that's staying with me forever," Burden said of not being selected in the first round. "Everybody who passed up on me has got to pay." And they just might, especially after letting Burden fall right into head coach Ben Johnson's lap. Giving Johnson a weapon like Burden is just asking for trouble. Burden played mostly in the slot last season with Missouri, and that just happens to be one of the most important positions in Johnson's offense. While Johnson will likely move Burden around -- inside, outside, the backfield, you name it -- Burden thrives as a YAC machine, giving quarterback Caleb Williams another dangerous weapon in the passing game. Follow Bears Wire on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Bears rookie WR Luther Burden has strong message for doubters
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Bears WR Luther Burden III dubbed breakout rookie candidate
The Chicago Bears welcomed some big new additions to the roster this offseason, including a rookie draft class that includes second-round wide receiver Luther Burden III. Burden, projected by many to be a first-round pick, fell right into the waiting arms of new Bears head coach Ben Johnson, who has big plans for the rookie in his star-studded offense. And it sounds like NFL analysts are expecting big things from Burden in Year 1. Advertisement USA Today's Tyler Dragon chose one breakout rookie candidate from each NFL team. For the Bears, there are a few options, including first-round tight end Colston Loveland. But Dragon believes Burden has the potential to thrive at an important position in Ben Johnson's offense. Chicago had a void at slot receiver after they let Keenan Allen walk in free agency. Burden has a chance to replace Allen in the slot. Some scouts considered him a first-round talent despite him slipping into the second round. Burden's already motivated to make teams 'pay' for passing on him. There will be no shortage of weapons for second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who has receivers DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Burden, as well as tight ends Cole Kmet and Loveland. But Johnson has discussed the importance of the slot receiver in his offense, and that's where Burden projects to play, as he excelled there in college. While there's only one ball and plenty of mouths to feed, Burden has the potential to cash in at a key position in this Chicago offense. Follow Bears Wire on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram This article originally appeared on Bears Wire: Bears WR Luther Burden III dubbed breakout rookie candidate
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Missouri football mostly relying on development, with notable exception, in passing game
Missouri football is mostly relying on development at wide receiver in 2025. Gone are the good times watching Luther Burden III, now a second-round draft pick by the Chicago Bears, make a fool of sprawling defenders with the ball in his hands. Done are the days of Theo Wease Jr. going hand-to-hand with a DB on an island on the outside, as he signed an undrafted free agent contract with the Miami Dolphins. Long-time reliable No. 3 receiver Mookie Cooper has graduated. Advertisement If you're counting that means the Tigers' full starting cast for the past couple years has moved on. That's a lot to replace. Or … 'I really wouldn't say replacing it,' returning wideout Marquis Johnson said during spring camp. 'I would just say just continuing it.' Johnson, who is coming off a spectacular Music City Bowl outing, is a name most Mizzou fans are familiar with after flashing incredible speed in his rookie year. But, his role is changing, as he now has the most in-game experience of all of MU's returning receivers. Joshua Manning has patiently waited his turn, taking extensive special teams reps before elevating into a reserve role in 2024. He stayed the course and now, as a junior, looks to be on the fastrack to a starting job. Advertisement Behind them, competing for reps, are returners Daniel Blood and James Madison II, Illinois State transfer Xavier Loyd and true freshmen Donovan Olugbode, Shaun Terry II and DaMarion Fowlkes. More: Missouri football depth chart projection: Who will start on Mizzou's offense in the fall? And there's the headliner: Kevin Coleman Jr., a senior Mississippi State transfer with more than 1,804-career receiving yards from a season apiece at MSU, Jackson State and Louisville, is taking over in the slot and figures to be the go-to option for Beau Pribula or Sam Horn, whoever wins the starting job at quarterback. Coleman is the obvious go-to receiver for Mizzou at this juncture, with spring camp wrapped, the transfer portal closed and fall camp still more than two months way. He was an All-SEC third-team player at Mississippi State last season. Advertisement 'Man, Kevin Coleman is everything you want him to be as a slot,' MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz said April 8. 'Dynamic player. Really tough cover in man to man.' But beyond him, the Tigers have to prove they've developed well internally. 'Obviously, Drinkwitz said, 'you can't just play with one wide receiver.' Sep 21, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (3) runs the ball against the Florida Gators during the second quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images The staff is encouraged by Olugbode, an early enrollee. Drinkwitz said he'll push for reps as a rookie on the outside. 'Very advanced from a receiver standpoint,' MU offensive coordinator Kirby Moore said. 'I think at this stage in his career, he's got really strong hands, able to separate, make contested catches, which, from my experience in this conference, you have to be able to do that.' Advertisement Drinkwitz is excited by the addition of Loyd, who was a highly sought-after receiver in the spring transfer portal window. 'That was a really key addition for us,' Drinkwitz said April 29. … 'We needed another veteran presence, a guy who had multiple position flexibility, a guy who can play on the outside and be a guy who can consistently get open and make plays vertically down the field.' But any success Mizzou has through the air has to be through the players they've now spent multiple seasons developing — players who have waited their turn. Johnson, who was a big-play breakout in 2023, struggled with injuries before an impressive performance — seven receptions, 122 yards and one touchdown — in MU's bowl win in 2024. The Tigers struggled with finding deep targets for most of the year, which perhaps didn't help Johnson's game. Advertisement But the rising junior has to become a more rounded player rather than a huck-it-long gadget guy. The bowl game indicated that's possible. In the spring he took another step, thanks to one major difference. 'I'm healthy,' Johnson said. 'Healthy, and I feel like I'm more mature than where I was from my first spring ball to where I am now. I feel like it's been going (great).' More: Can Missouri football's defensive ends be among best in nation? Why Eli Drinkwitz thinks so Dec 30, 2024; Nashville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers wide receiver Marquis Johnson (2) celebrates with tight end Jordon Harris (86) after his touchdown against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images Then there's Manning — a soft-spoken Lee's Summit product who can fly under the radar at times but has risen up the ranks in the receiver room. His personality isn't flashy, but the important things haven't escaped his offensive coordinator. Advertisement 'You just take for granted the consistency, the blocking on the perimeter,' Moore said. 'There's no alignment issues, he's making contested catches. Leadership. He's kind of embraced his role right now within that receiving corp.' The passing game never took off for the Tigers the way most expected it would in the 2024 season. Wease led the team with 884 yards. Burden's production dropped by more than 500 receiving yards from his sophomore year to his junior campaign. After that, no receivers caught more than 18 passes in the regular season. The reasons expectations were so high have now moved on, and the baton has passed. 'They left a good legacy, left a good place here' Johnson said. 'I'm just here to continue it.' This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Why development is crucial for Missouri football wide receivers in 2025
CBS News
12-05-2025
- Sport
- CBS News
As Bears wrap up rookie minicamp, Kyle Monangai is noted for attentiveness and drive
The Chicago Bears wrapped up their rookie minicamp at Halas Hall Sunday. Running back Kyle Monangai said he was focused on the "little details" of being a professional football player as he went through the three-day crash course of an NFL playbook. Like rookie teammate Luther Burden III, Monangai — a seventh-round selection out of Rutgers — has a chip on his shoulder after slipping to day three of the NFL Draft. Monangai was picked at No. 233, despite the 5-foot-8-inch bowling ball putting up big rushing numbers at Rutgers. "My football career path has kind of been one of like, 'You know, he's a good player, but you know, just something off, like something — I don't think I'm going to put him on at the pedestal.' I was never always talked about in the top guys," he said. "It's not a new space, not a new environment for me. It's a role that I embrace and that I take on. I think it's what honestly has made me the player I am. I think it's given me the fuel, the motivation to be, you know, the running back I am." Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle emphasized Monangai's attentiveness and drive. "He is a very physical player. He's very willing, and then the best thing about him that translates is that he's a consummate pro. The last couple days we've been able to meet with these guys, he is front and center. He's taking notes. He's attentive. You're asking a question of the group, he's asking," Doyle said, "and I think he's going to carry himself that way. I think guys that do handle themselves that way give themselves a great shot." The minicamp was a first for new head coach Ben Johnson at the helm. When it started on Friday, Johnson told players to embrace mistakes made early on, and he is still making a few adjustments of his own as the man in charge.
