Latest news with #LydiaBoussour
The Herald Scotland
a day ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
May jobs report shows 139,000 jobs were added last month
Before the report's release, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated that 125,000 jobs were added last month. Job gains for March and April were revised down by a combined 95,000, portraying a weaker labor market that believed in late winter and early spring. March's total was downgraded from 185,000 to 120,000 and April's, from 177,000 to 147,000. Is the job market good or bad right now? The labor market has held up remarkably well despite the hurdles posed by Trump's economic policies, with employment gains averaging well over 100,000 a month so far this year. But many forecasters reckoned a more pronounced hiring slowdown took shape in May and would intensify in the months ahead. Trump's trade strategy lies at the center of the projected downshift. He paused the high double-digit tariffs he slapped on dozens of countries in April and in May agreed to slash levies on Chinese imports from 145% to a still-elevated 30%. China agreed to broadly similar concessions. But the moves hinge on further U.S. deals with China and other countries. And 25% tariffs remain in effect on all imported cars and many goods from Canada and Mexico. This week, Trump hiked fees on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from 25%. And while a trade court last month struck down many of Trump's tariffs, they remain in effect during an appeal, prolonging the uncertainty for businesses. Economists expect the duties to reignite inflation within a month or two and dampen consumer spending. The costs also have heightened business uncertainty, curtailing hiring and investment. How many federal employees are laid off? The Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency has cut as many as 120,000 federal jobs but many workers have been placed on administrative leave, leaving them on U.S. payrolls pending court cases, Morgan Stanley said in a report. Still, the reductions have started to filter into the jobs numbers. Goldman Sachs estimates federal employment declined by a relatively modest 10,000 in May, adding to the 26,000 government workers that Capital Economics says already have been chopped since February. Are there still immigrants coming to America? Besides toughening enforcement at the southern border, the administration has canceled or declined to renew work permits and other protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants, economist Lydia Boussour of EY-Parthenon wrote in a note to clients. That will likely mean a smaller labor supply that further constrains hiring, especially in industries such as construction and hospitality, she said. Some calendar quirks also could have suppressed employment last month. For technical reasons, a late Easter likely boosted payrolls in April but heralds a lower tally for May as staffing levels returned to normal, Morgan Stanley said. Yet while hiring generally has slowed, other economists figured job growth remained sturdy last month as companies frustrated by labor shortages during the pandemic continued to curtail layoffs. Capital Economics and Barclays both predicted 150,000 jobs gains for May. By the end of the year, however, Barclays believes tariffs, federal layoffs and immigration curbs will slow average monthly job gains to about 75,000.
USA Today
2 days ago
- Business
- USA Today
Jobs report today: Employers added 139K jobs in May, unemployment at 4.2%
Jobs report today: Employers added 139K jobs in May, unemployment at 4.2% Show Caption Hide Caption FDA will reduce food and drug inspections due to federal layoffs FDA scales back routine inspections due to support staff layoffs, prioritizing high-risk cases amid government restructuring and budget cuts. Straight Arrow News U.S. payroll growth slowed modestly in May as employers added 139,000 jobs amid uncertainty about President Trump's sweeping import tariffs, federal government layoffs and immigration crackdown. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, the Labor Department said Friday. Before the report's release, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated that 125,000 jobs were added last month. Job gains for March and April were revised down by a combined 95,000, portraying a weaker labor market that believed in late winter and early spring. March's total was downgraded from 185,000 to 120,000 and April's, from 177,000 to 147,000. Is the job market good or bad right now? The labor market has held up remarkably well despite the hurdles posed by Trump's economic policies, with employment gains averaging well over 100,000 a month so far this year. But many forecasters reckoned a more pronounced hiring slowdown took shape in May and would intensify in the months ahead. Trump's trade strategy lies at the center of the projected downshift. He paused the high double-digit tariffs he slapped on dozens of countries in April and in May agreed to slash levies on Chinese imports from 145% to a still-elevated 30%. China agreed to broadly similar concessions. But the moves hinge on further U.S. deals with China and other countries. And 25% tariffs remain in effect on all imported cars and many goods from Canada and Mexico. This week, Trump hiked fees on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from 25%. And while a trade court last month struck down many of Trump's tariffs, they remain in effect during an appeal, prolonging the uncertainty for businesses. Economists expect the duties to reignite inflation within a month or two and dampen consumer spending. The costs also have heightened business uncertainty, curtailing hiring and investment. How many federal employees are laid off? The Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency has cut as many as 120,000 federal jobs but many workers have been placed on administrative leave, leaving them on U.S. payrolls pending court cases, Morgan Stanley said in a report. Still, the reductions have started to filter into the jobs numbers. Goldman Sachs estimates federal employment declined by a relatively modest 10,000 in May, adding to the 26,000 government workers that Capital Economics says already have been chopped since February. Are there still immigrants coming to America? Besides toughening enforcement at the southern border, the administration has canceled or declined to renew work permits and other protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants, economist Lydia Boussour of EY-Parthenon wrote in a note to clients. That will likely mean a smaller labor supply that further constrains hiring, especially in industries such as construction and hospitality, she said. Some calendar quirks also could have suppressed employment last month. For technical reasons, a late Easter likely boosted payrolls in April but heralds a lower tally for May as staffing levels returned to normal, Morgan Stanley said. Yet while hiring generally has slowed, other economists figured job growth remained sturdy last month as companies frustrated by labor shortages during the pandemic continued to curtail layoffs. Capital Economics and Barclays both predicted 150,000 jobs gains for May. By the end of the year, however, Barclays believes tariffs, federal layoffs and immigration curbs will slow average monthly job gains to about 75,000.
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Americans are spending less as they brace for new tariffs
Americans are tapping the brakes on spending - pulling back on dining out, hotel stays and other expenses, as they boost their savings ahead of new tariffs and continued economic uncertainty. Consumers are increasingly anxious about the economy, and they're curbing spending habits accordingly, data released Friday shows. Consumer spending inched up by 0.1 percent in February, after adjusting for inflation, following a 0.6 percent drop the month before, according to government figures. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate - or how much of their incomes people set aside - rose to 4.6 percent. Subscribe to The Post Most newsletter for the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post. A separate survey released by the University of Michigan, meanwhile, showed that Americans' views on the economy fell for a third straight month, to the lowest level since 2022, as households and businesses prepare for a wave of higher prices once new tariffs go into effect this week. 'Consumers are increasingly apprehensive about spending,' said Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at EY-Parthenon. 'We are seeing clear signs that people are being more careful - they're reluctant to spend on nonessential expenses. They're worried about inflation and have preemptive anxiety around tariffs.' Strikingly, economists say Americans of all income levels, including the wealthiest, are rethinking their spending - in what could be a pivotal warning. The drop-off in consumer spending is expected to drag down economic growth in the first three months of the year, with many economists now forecasting a contraction after years of consistent growth. The highest-earning 10 percent of Americans, with annual household incomes of $250,000 or more, have been driving much of the economy's post-pandemic boom, accounting for 49.7 percent of all U.S. spending, according to calculations by Moody's Analytics for the Wall Street Journal. But a recent slide in stock prices, combined with a burgeoning trade war, is causing even those well-heeled shoppers to think twice before booking vacations and snapping up designer watches. The forces driving Americans' recent wealth gains 'are under considerable risk of slowing or reversing,' Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in a February report. Johnny Franco, a plastic surgeon in Austin, said clients are increasingly opting for simpler procedures and local anesthesia, which can be thousands of dollars cheaper than going under during surgery. 'There's only so much money to go around for our patients,' he said. 'A lot of them are breaking up their surgeries - maybe a breast lift instead of a full 'mommy makeover,' or fillers instead of liposuction. They're able to save a decent amount of money while still feeling like they're making progress.' It's important to note, economists say, that consumers haven't stopped spending altogether. Americans who want jobs largely have them, and they're getting wage increases. But years of inflation, combined with a slowing labor market and new tariffs, have many anxious about what's ahead. Two-thirds of consumers now expect the unemployment rate - currently 4.1 percent - to rise in the coming year, the highest reading since 2009, according to the Michigan survey. At Well-Paid Maids, a cleaning company with branches in Washington, D.C., New York and Chicago, sales have slowed considerably this year. The drop has been most pronounced in the Washington area, where federal job cuts and funding freezes have left many government workers or contractors, and those around them, concerned about their finances. More than 10 percent of recurring customers in the D.C. area have canceled altogether in the past two months, either because they've lost their jobs or are worried they soon might. 'The real challenge is the vibes,' founder Aaron Seyedian said. 'People really do buy and spend based on economic vibe, and right now, there's just an amalgam of red arrows trending downward in peoples' minds. And that really don't make them want to reach for their wallets.' Americans spent less on a range of items in February compared with January, including cars, electronics, sporting goods and dining out, census data shows. Many of those items could soon become even more expensive, as the Trump administration places sweeping tariffs on vehicles and other imported goods. In Indianapolis, Erika Ocampo and her partner have shelved plans to buy a second car. With higher grocery and housing costs, their budget is already stretched thin. Since January, they've spent $6,000 on vet bills for a dog with cancer and several hundred more on diapers, clothing and food for their 2-year-old daughter. 'Things used to be so cheap here in Indianapolis,' said Ocampo, 32, a technical recruiter. 'But now we're thinking hard about every cost. We only buy things on sale and it's like, 'Do we really need Amazon Prime? What else can we cancel?'' (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.) Major retailers, including Target, Foot Locker and Macy's, have all recently noted signs of shopper hesitation. And U.S. airlines this month warned that demand is slowing, with Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and American Airlines all revising down their forecasts for the first three months of the year. 'People are cautious, and they're pulling back a little bit on travel,' Delta CEO Edward Herman Bastian said in a presentation. Travelers, he said, are 'kind of waiting to see what's going to transpire, whether it's trade and tariff challenges or macroeconomic policy changes.' Adinah Greene, who lives in Sonoma County, California, lost her job working on employee benefits at the end of January. Since then, she's sent out hundreds of applications and secured a few interviews, but says she's still being prudent about spending. Big-ticket purchases are on hold, and she is limiting take-out to one $30 order a week. Early in the pandemic, Greene had bought a series of vacation packages, prepaying for accommodations in destinations like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. But even the thought of scheduling one of those trips now - and paying for airfare - feels ludicrous. 'I keep getting calls about my next booking and it's just, like, 'Dude, I can't go on a vacation anytime soon,'' said Greene, who's 45. 'I haven't dialed back my spending completely, but I'm definitely being more careful.' Related Content Before DOGE, Argentina's Javier Milei took a chainsaw to his government I loved my 17-year-old dog. When was the right time to let her go? In a stunner, Alysa Liu completes return to skating with gold at worlds Sign in to access your portfolio
Washington Post
31-03-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
Americans are spending less as they brace for new tariffs
Americans are tapping the brakes on spending — pulling back on dining out, hotel stays and other expenses, as they boost their savings ahead of new tariffs and continued economic uncertainty. Consumers are increasingly anxious about the economy, and they're curbing spending habits accordingly, data released Friday shows. Consumer spending inched up by 0.1 percent in February, after adjusting for inflation, following a 0.6 percent drop the month before, according to government figures. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate — or how much of their incomes people set aside — rose to 4.6 percent. A separate survey released by the University of Michigan, meanwhile, showed that Americans' views on the economy fell for a third straight month, to the lowest level since 2022, as households and businesses prepare for a wave of higher prices once new tariffs go into effect this week. 'Consumers are increasingly apprehensive about spending,' said Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at EY-Parthenon. 'We are seeing clear signs that people are being more careful — they're reluctant to spend on nonessential expenses. They're worried about inflation and have preemptive anxiety around tariffs.' Strikingly, economists say Americans of all income levels, including the wealthiest, are rethinking their spending — in what could be a pivotal warning. The drop-off in consumer spending is expected to drag down economic growth in the first three months of the year, with many economists now forecasting a contraction after years of consistent growth. The highest-earning 10 percent of Americans, with annual household incomes of $250,000 or more, have been driving much of the economy's post-pandemic boom, accounting for 49.7 percent of all U.S. spending, according to calculations by Moody's Analytics for the Wall Street Journal. But a recent slide in stock prices, combined with a burgeoning trade war, is causing even those well-heeled shoppers to think twice before booking vacations and snapping up designer watches. The forces driving Americans' recent wealth gains 'are under considerable risk of slowing or reversing,' Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in a February report. Johnny Franco, a plastic surgeon in Austin, said clients are increasingly opting for simpler procedures and local anesthesia, which can be thousands of dollars cheaper than going under during surgery. 'There's only so much money to go around for our patients,' he said. 'A lot of them are breaking up their surgeries — maybe a breast lift instead of a full 'mommy makeover,' or fillers instead of liposuction. They're able to save a decent amount of money while still feeling like they're making progress.' It's important to note, economists say, that consumers haven't stopped spending altogether. Americans who want jobs largely have them, and they're getting wage increases. But years of inflation, combined with a slowing labor market and new tariffs, have many anxious about what's ahead. Two-thirds of consumers now expect the unemployment rate — currently 4.1 percent — to rise in the coming year, the highest reading since 2009, according to the Michigan survey. At Well-Paid Maids, a cleaning company with branches in Washington, D.C., New York and Chicago, sales have slowed considerably this year. The drop has been most pronounced in the Washington area, where federal job cuts and funding freezes have left many government workers or contractors, and those around them, concerned about their finances. More than 10 percent of recurring customers in the D.C. area have canceled altogether in the past two months, either because they've lost their jobs or are worried they soon might. 'The real challenge is the vibes,' founder Aaron Seyedian said. 'People really do buy and spend based on economic vibe, and right now, there's just an amalgam of red arrows trending downward in peoples' minds. And that really don't make them want to reach for their wallets.' Americans spent less on a range of items in February compared with January, including cars, electronics, sporting goods and dining out, census data shows. Many of those items could soon become even more expensive, as the Trump administration places sweeping tariffs on vehicles and other imported goods. In Indianapolis, Erika Ocampo and her partner have shelved plans to buy a second car. With higher grocery and housing costs, their budget is already stretched thin. Since January, they've spent $6,000 on vet bills for a dog with cancer and several hundred more on diapers, clothing and food for their 2-year-old daughter. 'Things used to be so cheap here in Indianapolis,' said Ocampo, 32, a technical recruiter. 'But now we're thinking hard about every cost. We only buy things on sale and it's like, 'Do we really need Amazon Prime? What else can we cancel?'' (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post.) Major retailers, including Target, Foot Locker and Macy's, have all recently noted signs of shopper hesitation. And U.S. airlines this month warned that demand is slowing, with Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and American Airlines all revising down their forecasts for the first three months of the year. 'People are cautious, and they're pulling back a little bit on travel,' Delta CEO Edward Herman Bastian said in a presentation. Travelers, he said, are 'kind of waiting to see what's going to transpire, whether it's trade and tariff challenges or macroeconomic policy changes.' Adinah Greene, who lives in Sonoma County, California, lost her job working on employee benefits at the end of January. Since then, she's sent out hundreds of applications and secured a few interviews, but says she's still being prudent about spending. Big-ticket purchases are on hold, and she is limiting take-out to one $30 order a week. Early in the pandemic, Greene had bought a series of vacation packages, prepaying for accommodations in destinations like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. But even the thought of scheduling one of those trips now — and paying for airfare — feels ludicrous. 'I keep getting calls about my next booking and it's just, like, 'Dude, I can't go on a vacation anytime soon,'' said Greene, who's 45. 'I haven't dialed back my spending completely, but I'm definitely being more careful.'
Boston Globe
31-03-2025
- Business
- Boston Globe
As Trump's tariff ‘Liberation Day' looms, the recession drumbeat grows louder
Forecasters are bumping up their recession odds. The reasons: a troubling mix of flagging growth, inflation back on the boil, and Citing fading momentum and a 'rapid deterioration in economic sentiment,' Lydia Boussour, senior economist at consulting firm EY-Parthenon, last week pegged the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at about 40 percent. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Historically, there's a 15 percent chance that the economy will tank in any given year. Advertisement The latest: The dour news piled up last week. The stock market — and retirement plans with it — took a beating as the president prepared to fire his biggest salvo yet in the tariffs wars. The plans for 'Liberation Day,' as he's dubbed April 2, The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation tracker Meanwhile, consumer sentiment And in Massachusetts, new Labor Department data underscored that Why it matters: A hard landing looks increasingly possible. Worse, it could be Advertisement Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary — and the stock market's hostile reaction — Trump contends that tariffs won't push prices higher. But he's signaled that he's willing to risk massive disruptions to reshape the economy around domestic manufacturing, smaller federal government, and far fewer foreign-born workers. He's warned that there would be 'a period of transition because what we're doing is very big.' Back then, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, and the economy quickly surged back to life. Today, with tariff-fueled inflation a threat, the Fed would have less firepower to cut rates or stimulate demand. Counterpoint: Still, a downturn isn't inevitable, rising odds notwithstanding. Most forecasters expect the economy to expand this year, though at a slower pace than in 2024. The odds of recession are 30 percent, according to the consensus of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg. 'The underlying strengths [of the economy] are very much still there,' Susan M. Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, What's next: All eyes are on Trump's tariff plans. The big unknown: How they will impact consumers, inflation, hiring, and financial markets. Consumers, whose spending drives about two-thirds of the economy, usually hit the brakes when inflation flares up or they're worried about losing their jobs. Consumer confidence, as measured by the monthly University of Michigan survey, Advertisement Two-thirds of respondents expected unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009, and they see inflation reaching 5 percent over the next 12 months, a level not seen since early 2023. The fear? A classic doom-loop. Shaken consumers cut back, businesses hit pause, layoffs pile up — and a downturn feeds itself. Rising credit card balances, increasing late payments, and softening retail sales all hint that consumer stress may already be showing up in the real economy. Stocks fell sharply on Friday. Spencer Platt/Getty Hence Wall Street's a quick retreat. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost ground in five of the past six weeks, leaving the benchmark down more than 9 percent from its mid-February high-water mark. Final thought: There's an argument to be made that Trump would be wiser to pursue his economic goals in a more disciplined fashion. Abrupt policy shifts and drawn-out legal battles have rattled business leaders and everyday Americans. But the president likes nothing more than exerting his power. He's bringing Republicans, the Justice Department, universities, and much of corporate America to heel. But economic reality can't be subverted by executive order. Tariffs are 'misguided and confused protectionist policy,' Harvard economist Larry Summers To paraphrase Larry Edelman can be reached at
