Latest news with #MSCIACWorld
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
UBS: Bull case scenario for global stock market gaining traction
-- UBS sees rising odds for a bullish outcome in global equities, with its "Blue Sky" scenario gaining momentum despite near-term risks. In its latest global equity strategy note, UBS said, 'The probability of a Blue Sky scenario of 940 MSCI AC World (= 7%) upside looks higher. Even before today, we had been biased towards this scenario.' While UBS still expects some near-term market consolidation, it emphasized that the setup for a broader rally is improving. 'We could potentially end up with all seven preconditions for a bubble by year-end,' UBS wrote. Under this 'Very Blue Sky – or Bubble – Scenario,' UBS estimates upside of more than 20% for global stocks. The bank argued that even with recent geopolitical developments and macro uncertainties, the likelihood of an extreme downside is diminishing. 'The Very Blue Sky Scenario has a greater probability than the Black Sky,' the bank said, referring to a scenario where tariffs return to ideological levels. UBS pointed to multiple factors supporting its optimism, including moderate tariffs, market sensitivity to financial conditions, and the ability of U.S. trade partners to offer concessions. 'Financial markets do matter,' UBS said, noting that equities account for 22% of household assets in the United States and significantly influence GDP. UBS also acknowledged valuations are stretched, saying the S&P 500 appears '4% overvalued.' However, it highlighted that earnings revisions and technical factors may still favor equities. 'The Blue Sky scenario is dependent on five supports, four of which are not that dependent on the outcome of tariffs,' UBS wrote. Related articles UBS: Bull case scenario for global stock market gaining traction Barclays warns the stock market could be getting complacent at these valuations Why Elon Musk needs Tesla more than ever? Humanoid, BYD and much more on Tesla Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New Bull Run or Bear-Market Rally? Only Time Will Tell
Don't be fooled by Wednesday's market turnaround, which saw the S&P 500 equities benchmark climbing by the most since 2008 and significant gains in bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market, as represented by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index. The rally, sparked by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, fueled social-media optimism of an imminent prolonged bull run in both stocks and crypto. That may be overoptimistic, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere, who note that multiweek, double-digit equity price rallies are quite common even during larger bear markets. 'In most bear markets, given light positioning, marginal changes in these variables can have amplified effects on markets. As a result, bear market rallies are quite common,' Goldman's strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer said in a Tuesday note titled 'Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market. There have been 19 global bear market rallies since the 1980s and on an average, 'they have lasted 44 days and the MSCI AC World return is 10% to 15%,' the note said. 'One of the worst bear markets of history saw about half a dozen major double-digit rallies before all was said and done,' Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, said on X referring to the 1930s. 'Is the 90-day bounce a BMR?' Whether the recent bounce signifies the onset of a new bull run or merely a bear market rally won't become clear until later. However, certain characteristics of a sustained bottom mentioned by Goldman such as attractive valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention and a slowdown in macroeconomic deterioration, are not yet evident. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to offer support any time soon, while Trump has only halted tariffs for 90 days, meaning trade tensions could escalate again. Plus, tariffs on China continue to rise and if that's not enough, stocks are not cheap yet. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
New Bull Run or Bear-Market Rally? Only Time Will Tell
Don't be fooled by Wednesday's market turnaround, which saw the S&P 500 equities benchmark climbing by the most since 2008 and significant gains in bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market, as represented by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index. The rally, sparked by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs, fueled social-media optimism of an imminent prolonged bull run in both stocks and crypto. That may be overoptimistic, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere, who note that multiweek, double-digit equity price rallies are quite common even during larger bear markets. 'In most bear markets, given light positioning, marginal changes in these variables can have amplified effects on markets. As a result, bear market rallies are quite common,' Goldman's strategy team led by Peter Oppenheimer said in a Tuesday note titled 'Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market. There have been 19 global bear market rallies since the 1980s and on an average, 'they have lasted 44 days and the MSCI AC World return is 10% to 15%,' the note said. 'One of the worst bear markets of history saw about half a dozen major double-digit rallies before all was said and done,' Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, said on X referring to the 1930s. 'Is the 90-day bounce a BMR?' Whether the recent bounce signifies the onset of a new bull run or merely a bear market rally won't become clear until later. However, certain characteristics of a sustained bottom mentioned by Goldman such as attractive valuations, extreme negative positioning, policy intervention and a slowdown in macroeconomic deterioration, are not yet evident. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to offer support any time soon, while Trump has only halted tariffs for 90 days, meaning trade tensions could escalate again. Plus, tariffs on China continue to rise and if that's not enough, stocks are not cheap yet. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
25-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
HEDGE FLOW Asia equities exhibit record bullish momentum, Goldman Sachs says
HONG KONG, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Hedge funds' willingness to boost bets on Asian stocks last week rose to its highest level on Goldman Sachs record since 2016, the bank said in a note. Long positions exceeded short positions by a ratio of 1.5 to 1, with China and Hong Kong accounting for nearly half of the regional inflows from February 14 to 20, according to the note this week. Japan contributed 23% of gross inflows, followed by Taiwan and Australia. "Asia is now the most overweight region versus MSCI AC World weights," at the expense of hedge funds rotating out of North America, the bank said, based on the hedge fund exposure it tracks. Hong Kong and China A-share markets have outperformed global peers in the past month, as the emergence of DeepSeek fuelled a tech rally and ignited animal spirits, driving Hang Seng Index to a three-year high at 23688.45. Its sub-tech index has advanced for six straight weeks. Hot stocks such as Alibaba Group ( opens new tab surged over 60% year-to-date. The extreme bullishness has led to some concerns that there is too much optimism over China's recovery and the U.S.-China competition. Both Hong Kong and China shares suffered sell-offs this week after the Trump administration issued the "America First Investment Policy", which aims to enhance restrictions on China. Kevin Liu, a strategist at CICC Research, suggested investors take some profits around the 23,000-24,000 level for the Hang Seng index, as sentiment and technical indicators look overextended. Get a look at the day ahead in Asian and global markets with the Morning Bid Asia newsletter. Sign up here.
