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Reliance heads into earnings with most analyst 'buy' calls since 2008
Reliance heads into earnings with most analyst 'buy' calls since 2008

Business Standard

time25-04-2025

  • Business
  • Business Standard

Reliance heads into earnings with most analyst 'buy' calls since 2008

Firms from Macquarie Group Ltd. to Kotak Securities Ltd. have upgraded their rating on billionaire Mukesh Ambani's flagship firm since January, with analysts highlighting its cheap valuation Bloomberg By Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Savio Shetty Sell-side analysts are the most bullish on Reliance Industries Ltd. since 2008, reflecting optimism for a better outlook ahead of earnings due later Friday. More than 92 per cent of the 39 brokerages tracked by Bloomberg have a buy recommendation on the shares of India's largest privately owned refiner. Firms from Macquarie Group Ltd. to Kotak Securities Ltd. have upgraded their rating on billionaire Mukesh Ambani's flagship firm since January, with analysts highlighting its cheap valuation and a potential recovery after disappointing earnings in six out of the last seven quarters. 'The stock had priced everything that could go wrong,' said Varatharajan Sivasankaran, a top-rated analyst from Antique Stock Broking Ltd. who raised his rating in January. 'We are definitely in a much better situation, in terms of outlook for individual businesses, than at the beginning of the year.' Reliance shares have rallied more than 13 per cent from a low earlier in April, beating the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index and shaking off concerns over US President Donald Trump's trade war. That's lifted their valuation to 21 times earnings estimated for the next 12 months, in line with the five-year average. Analysts have grown more confident even as they expect the Mumbai-based company to report a decline in quarterly net income, with Morgan Stanley pointing to a rise in interest costs and depreciation of expenses in the consumer-focused businesses. Still, the Wall Street bank anticipates earnings will recover for some units and sees revenue from the retail operations rising 10 per cent. Traders are bracing for a 2.7 per cent one-day move in the shares after the results, more than the average fluctuation of 1.9 per cent following the last eight quarterly reports. That contrasts with the past three earnings, when the implied move was underpriced ahead of the release. Meanwhile, the cost of hedging against stock declines in the coming month has dropped from a high earlier in April, and calls with an exercise price 7.6 per cent above the last close were the most owned.

Nomura Joins Japan's Overseas Push With Biggest Deal Since 2008
Nomura Joins Japan's Overseas Push With Biggest Deal Since 2008

Bloomberg

time23-04-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Nomura Joins Japan's Overseas Push With Biggest Deal Since 2008

Nomura Holdings Inc. 's $1.8 billion purchase of some Macquarie Group Ltd. assets in the US and Europe adds to a surge in overseas deals by Japanese firms, even with the trade war rattling global markets. The volume of Japanese mergers and acquisitions abroad has climbed almost 70% so far this year from the same period in 2024 to about $28 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. January to March was the busiest first quarter in at least 27 years, the figures show.

Indonesia's Nickel Boom Is Forcing Its Own Smelters to Shut Down
Indonesia's Nickel Boom Is Forcing Its Own Smelters to Shut Down

Yahoo

time04-03-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Indonesia's Nickel Boom Is Forcing Its Own Smelters to Shut Down

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's sprawling nickel industry is creaking under the weight of its own success, as a production surge drags down prices and a shortage of ore forces even the country's own smelters to curb output. Cuts to Section 8 Housing Assistance Loom Amid HUD Uncertainty How Upzoning in Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold Remembering the Landscape Architect Who Embraced the City NYC Office Buildings See Resurgence as Investors Pile Into Bonds Hong Kong Joins Global Stadium Race With New $4 Billion Sports Park The Southeast Asian nation's metal boom over the past decade has convulsed the industry, catching many off-guard with its speed and scale. Cheap coal-based power and Chinese technology that makes the most of bountiful low-grade reserves have helped Indonesia to control more than half of the world's nickel production — a win for Jakarta governments eager to boost manufacturing. The surge prompted a two-year price plunge that has crippled global rivals. With the metal now languishing near its lowest levels since 2020, the effects are now being felt at home, too. Weaker-than-expected demand from key markets like China and ore shortages are adding to the pain in the country's smelting sector. 'Previously everyone was getting two-year paybacks on their smelting investments,' said Jim Lennon, a veteran metals analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. 'There's no money in the industry for them now.' PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry — one of Indonesia's largest smelters with more than 20 production lines for nickel pig iron, a precursor for stainless steel — has delayed payments to suppliers and is close to shutting down completely amid the collapse of its Chinese parent Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry Co., Bloomberg reported last month. Gunbuster said in a statement last week that its operations continue to run as normal during 'changes in operational management.' It did not elaborate. In Java, Indonesia's most populous island, several smaller smelters have cut production to minimal levels or stopped altogether, according to a person familiar with the matter. The plants, hundreds of miles from the nickel mining heartland of Sulawesi, face additional costs to ship in ore. But even facilities near mines are facing difficulties, including those in the massive purpose-built industrial parks run by China's Tsingshan Holding Group Co., the world's largest nickel producer. Australian-listed Nickel Industries Ltd, with several smelters in the conglomerate's parks, posted a full-year loss after taking a $205 million post-tax impairment. The current state of affairs is a far cry from just a few years ago, when Indonesia banned the export of ore and lavished firms with tax holidays to build up a domestic smelting industry. The breakneck expansion — driven almost entirely by Chinese companies — was touted as a winning push to turn the country's natural resources into higher value exports, dubbed 'downstreaming'. While the policies did boost Indonesia's export earnings and created thousands of jobs, the surge in processing capacity has far outpaced demand for nickel. The country is now looking to curb its mine supply in an effort to support the market — a move with grave consequences for producers. 'More than half of the nickel pig iron furnaces are not making money or are losing money,' said Macquarie's Lennon. 'If you have got a smaller furnace and have to buy your ore, you are not making money.' The rush to invest in the Indonesia nickel sector was spurred on by the rise of electric vehicles, which need nickel for high-performance batteries. But advances made by Chinese firms have seen the metal being displaced by cheaper battery chemistries, in particular those based on lithium iron phosphate. Meanwhile consumption by the stainless steel sector, the biggest source of nickel demand, is still attempting to turn the corner after suffering through China's prolonged property slump. Without a sustained increase in appetite — perhaps driven by stimulus from Beijing — Indonesia's smelters face more pain this year. 'There are some bright spots for demand in the stainless steel market, but nickel batteries are losing market share in the electric vehicle market,' Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading Ltd., wrote in a note, predicting bearish pressure ahead for at least the next six months. 'There is more pain to come for producers before the market rebalances.' --With assistance from Alfred Cang. (Removes AI summary due to incorrect reference to Gunbuster) Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? The US Is Withdrawing From Global Health at a Dangerous Time Trump's SALT Tax Promise Hinges on an Obscure Loophole Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods OXO Fought Back Against the Black Spatula Panic. People Defected Anyway ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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