Latest news with #MacroHive
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Euro Could Reach $1.40 Within Two Years: Macro Hive
Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez says the euro could reach $1.40 within one or two years. "There has to be an outlet somewhere for dollar weakness," Hafeez tells Bloomberg Television. FX options show growing appetite for medium-term euro upside. Markets now see nearly a 1-in-2 chance of the single currency trading above $1.20 by the end of 2027, a far cry from a year ago where there was talk of parity. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Euro Could Reach $1.40 Within Two Years: Macro Hive
Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez says the euro could reach $1.40 within one or two years. "There has to be an outlet somewhere for dollar weakness," Hafeez tells Bloomberg Television. FX options show growing appetite for medium-term euro upside. Markets now see nearly a 1-in-2 chance of the single currency trading above $1.20 by the end of 2027, a far cry from a year ago where there was talk of parity. (Source: Bloomberg)
Zawya
15-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Dollar slips ahead of retail sales data as China-US trade optimism wanes
The U.S. dollar lost its footing against major peers on Thursday ahead of retail sales data that could offer clarity on how U.S. consumers fared in the face of tariff risks, while excitement over a China-US trade deal faded. The greenback has given up most of its gains from Monday after the United States and China announced a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs imposed on each other's goods since early April, easing fears of a global recession. "Markets have exhausted the positivity from the U.S.-China trade talk," said Benjamin Ford, strategist at Macro Hive in London. Safe-haven currencies gained with the Japanese yen strengthening 0.6% to 145.94 per dollar after having touched a one-month low of 148.65 this week. The Swiss franc firmed 0.5% to 0.8384 versus the dollar. The euro tacked on 0.2% to $1.1192. Most Asian currencies advanced versus the dollar too, led by a surge in the South Korean won for the second day after news that officials from South Korea and the U.S. met last week to discuss the dollar/won exchange rate led to a bout of dollar selling. The won surged 0.8% at 1,396.15 per dollar. The sudden lift in the won was reminiscent of an unprecedented two-day surge in Taiwan's currency at the start of May, which also coincided with the end of U.S.-Taiwan trade talks in Washington. The Taiwan dollar was 0.6% stronger to the dollar on Thursday. A Bloomberg report on Wednesday, however, said the U.S. is not negotiating for a weaker dollar as part of tariff talks, which has helped calm some nervousness in markets. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against six other currencies, dipped 0.1% to 100.85, but on course to eke out a 0.4% gain for the week. Even so, the index is down nearly 7% in 2025. SHARP FALL U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive and erratic trade policies have rattled investors' confidence in the dollar, leading to a sharp fall in U.S. assets. Although stock markets have recouped April losses, the dollar remains under pressure. "We've seen U.S. equities stabilize, but we haven't seen those inflows return (to the dollar). Some clients have lightened their dollar shorts but they're not looking to turn long in any single fashion," Ford said. Amundi Investment Institute turned cautious on the U.S. dollar in May versus a month ago, as it believes a rotation out of the U.S. will continue benefiting regions such as Europe, Emerging Markets, and Asia, strategists said in a note. A major market focus on Thursday will be U.S. retail sales data, and investors are also looking out for more details on possible trade deals after the U.S.-China tariff truce. "Hard data on US personal consumption have so far shown resilience despite weakness in consumer sentiment," said UniCredit investment strategist Thomas Strobel in a note, adding that U.S. data later in the day will test whether this resilience continued after sweeping U.S. tariffs last month. U.S. Treasury yields were elevated and the benchmark 10-year yield hovered near a one-month top, in part due to worries over Trump's budget package that would add trillions of dollars to the U.S. debt. Sterling firmed 0.2% to $1.328 against the U.S. dollar after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly grew in March. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Tokyo and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Edwina Gibbs, Ros Russell and Ed Osmond)
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Dollar slips as Sino-U.S. trade optimism wanes, retail data eyed
The U.S. dollar lost its footing against major peers on Thursday ahead of retail sales later in the day that could offer clues on U.S. consumer strength in the face of tariff risks, while excitement over a Sino-US trade deal faded. The greenback has given up most of its gains from Monday after the United States and China announced a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs imposed on each other's goods since early April, easing fears of a global recession. "Markets have exhausted the positivity from the U.S.-China trade talk," said Benjamin Ford, strategist at Macro Hive in London. Safe-haven currencies gained with the Japanese yen strengthening 0.6% to 145.88 per dollar after having touched a one-month low of 148.65 earlier this week. The Swiss franc firmed 0.6% to 0.8376 versus the dollar. The euro tacked on 0.2% to $1.12. Most Asian currencies advanced versus the dollar too, led by a surge in the South Korean won for the second day after news on Wednesday that officials from South Korea and the U.S. met last week to discuss the dollar/won exchange rate led to a bout of dollar selling. The won surged 0.7% at 1,397.68 per dollar. The sudden lurch in the won was reminiscent of an unprecedented two-day surge in Taiwan's currency at the start of May, which also coincided with the end of U.S.-Taiwan trade talks in Washington. The Taiwan dollar was 0.5% stronger to the dollar on Thursday. A Bloomberg report on Wednesday, however, said the U.S. is not negotiating for a weaker dollar as part of tariff talks, which has helped calm some of the nervousness in the markets. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against six other currencies, was 0.2% lower at 100.81, but on course to eke out a 0.4% gain for the week. Even so, the index is down nearly 7% in 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive and erratic trade policies have rattled investors' confidence in the dollar, leading to a sharp fall in U.S. assets. While stock markets have recouped April losses, the dollar remains under pressure. A major market focus on Thursday will be U.S. retail sales data, and investors are also going to be looking out for more details on possible trade deals after the U.S.-China tariff truce. "Hard data on US personal consumption have so far shown resilience despite weakness in consumer sentiment," said UniCredit investment strategist Thomas Strobel in a note, adding that U.S. data later in the day will test whether this resilience continued after sweeping U.S. tariffs last month. U.S. Treasury yields were elevated and the benchmark 10-year yield rose to a one-month top, in part due to worries over Trump's budget package that would add trillions of dollars to the U.S. debt. Sterling firmed 0.2% to $1.329 against the U.S. dollar after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly grew in March, giving a boost to the government and finance minister Rachel Reeves.
Zawya
09-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
European stocks climb on hopes of easing US-China trade tensions
European shares ticked higher on Friday, as investors bet on de-escalation in the trade war ahead of discussions between the U.S. and China over the weekend. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.3%, as of 0708 GMT, with all regional bourses trading higher, led by a 0.7% gain in Germany's benchmark DAX index. Energy and basic resources clocked in the most gains among European sectors, rising 1.8% and 1%, respectively. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday predicted import tariffs on Beijing of 145% would likely come down as officials from the world's top two economies gear up for negotiations in Switzerland. Washington will roll out dozens of trade deals over the next month, but a 10% tariff imposed on most countries will likely stay, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC on Thursday, as the U.S. announced a limited bilateral trade agreement with the UK. "The reason that global equities are kicking on is just the hope that this US-China update on the weekend in Switzerland, is going to be 'something'," said Benjamin Ford, strategist at Macro Hive. The STOXX 600 index is heading for its fourth straight weekly gain, climbing about 13.7% from its early April trough on hopes that the U.S. will strike deals to avert a damaging trade war. European assets have also benefited from investment flows away from the United States. Corporate results on Friday were also largely upbeat. Commerzbank shares shrugged off early weakness to rise 2.5% after the German lender posted a surprise profit growth in the first-quarter. Sonova climbed 5.8% after the Swiss hearing aids maker forecast higher sales and profitability for its 2025/26 fiscal year. Shares in Bavarian Nordic jumped 12% to their highest since February-end after the Danish biotech firm's first quarter revenue beat market expectations. Of the 149 companies in the STOXX 600 that had reported first-quarter results until Tuesday, 58.4% exceeded analyst estimates for earnings, well above the beat rate of 54% in a typical quarter, according to Refinitiv IBES data. A busy of central bank meeting concludes with the U.S. Federal Reserve holding rates and the Bank of England delivering a quarter point rate cut this week in the backdrop of a global trade war that threatens to slow growth and stoke inflation. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told the BBC on Friday that Britain needs to rebuild its trading relationship with the European Union. Britain and the EU are holding a summit on May 19 that could lead to closer defence cooperation and pave the way for agreements to ease trading. (Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
