Latest news with #MacroRiskAdvisors
Bloomberg
19-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
‘Sell America' Fears Emerge After Moody's Downgrades US Debt
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett criticized Moody's Ratings over its decision to lower the US credit rating, calling the move backward-looking and saying the Trump administration is committed to lowering federal spending. 'Make no mistake, the US debt is the safest bet on Earth. There's no country that I'd rather have than the United States and so Moody's can do what it wants to,' Hassett said in an interview Monday morning on Fox Business Network. Hassett's comments follow the decision by the credit rater late Friday to downgrade the US to Aa1 from Aaa, raising doubts about the nation's status as the world's highest-quality sovereign borrower and highlighting Wall Street's worries about the nation's fiscal health. Dean Curnutt, Founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, discusses the implications of the US debt downgrade for investors. Dean speaks with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Traders model bullish moves for S&P 500 with tariff tensions easing
(Bloomberg) — The reprieve in US-China trade tensions that sent stocks soaring on Monday has chart watchers anticipating fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC). A New Central Park Amenity, Tailored to Its East Harlem Neighbors What's Behind the Rise in Serious Injuries on New York City's Streets? NYC Warns of 17% Drop in Foreign Tourists Due to Trump Policies LA Mayor Credits Trump on Fire Aid, Stays Wary on Immigration Lawsuit Challenges Trump Administration Policy on Migrant Children The gauge closed above 5,750 — its 200-day moving average — for the first time since late March. According to John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, there are now no more major resistance levels left until 6,144, the record high the S&P 500 hit on February 19. So-called resistance levels occur at points where a bullish trend is expected to pause as selling surpasses buying. A break above those levels indicates a shift in sentiment. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other Podcast Platforms. 'The S&P 500 (^GSPC) trading above the 200-day moving average is another indication that the trend is turning positive,' Kolovos said. 'This increases the odds that pullbacks will be met with increased demand or buying interest. It changes your strategy and sends the signal that we're done with the bear market.' Major US indexes have already erased the losses they suffered since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced sweeping levies on imports, and are within 1% from wiping out their declines this year. Investors are now seeing the easing of trade tensions between the US and China as evidence of the Trump administration tempering their aggressive tariff policies. The latest setup for the S&P 500 has changed how aggressive dip buyers could be if the stock market retreats from where it currently stands — because they expect equities to only rally further. Chart watchers are already modeling what the next bullish levels will be if the S&P 500 breaks above its all-time high. To Kolovos, it would pave the path for the index to hit 6,600. JC O'Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth Capital Partners, sees the next target being 6,450, followed by 6,645, implying a gain of more than 10% above Monday's close. Even so, if history is any guide, a move above the 200-day moving average doesn't guarantee that stocks could move higher. Nearly two-thirds of 14 S&P 500 bear markets since the World War II started with a double digit decline and recovered to within 2% or higher of the 200-day moving average — only to plunge once again around even lower levels, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. That strengthens the case for technical analysts to continue to watch so-called support levels, at which stock indexes typically bounce as they indicate potential buying. Last week's high of 5,720 has turned into a major support level and a potential move below 5,580 would force the index to retest the 5,425 level, Kolovos said. Aggregate equity positioning is still only slightly above the bottom of its longer-run range going back to 2010, according to Deutsche Bank Securities (DB) strategist Parag Thatte. That means investors that cut their positions to stocks because of tariff-driven uncertainty would need to boost their exposure if they want to participate in a rally. Bullish trends are already shaping up across systematic funds, which follow market direction and technical indicators. Commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, are likely turning long on US equities after the market rallied through key momentum levels on Monday, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM) Bram Kaplan wrote in a Monday note. Any upcoming short-term dip will likely be bought, not sold, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler. ''Pain trade' is now up as the sentiment has changed and the worst case scenario in form of deteriorating corporate earnings is likely not going to happen,' he said. The Recession Chatter Is Getting Louder. Watch These Metrics US Border Towns Are Being Ravaged by Canada's Furious Boycott Two Million Meat Sticks a Day Isn't Enough for Chomps' CEO Maybe AI Slop Is Killing the Internet, After All With the New York Liberty, Clara Wu Tsai Aims for the First $1 Billion Women's Sports Franchise ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy
Bloomberg
13-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Traders Model Bullish Moves for S&P 500 With Tariff Tensions Easing
The reprieve in US-China trade tensions that sent stocks soaring on Monday has chart watchers anticipating fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 Index. The gauge closed above 5,750 — its 200-day moving average — for the first time since late March. According to John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, there are now no more major resistance levels left until 6,144, the record high the S&P 500 hit on February 19.
Yahoo
06-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Lockstep Moves in US Stocks Suggest More Volatility Is Brewing
(Bloomberg) -- US stocks are increasingly moving in tandem, raising the risks of further turbulence ahead as investors grapple with uncertainty over economic growth and the potential fallout from President Donald Trump's trade policies. Republican Mayor Braces for Tariffs: 'We Didn't Budget for This' Trump Administration Plans to Eliminate Dozens of Housing Offices How Upzoning in Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold NYC's Finances Are Sinking With Gauge Falling to 11-Year Low Remembering the Landscape Architect Who Embraced the City With the S&P 500 now down around 6% from its all-time high, an index of three-month implied correlations from Cboe stands at its highest level since a selloff rattled global markets in September. Lockstep moves in equities are a red flag for traders, as they can indicate an environment where good stocks get hit along with bad ones when risk appetite dries up. 'The spike in correlations are a warning sign that additional stock pain can't be ruled out,' said John Kolovos, head of technical strategy at Macro Risk Advisors. The phenomenon has presaged past episodes of short-term stock weakness. The S&P 500 has posted an average loss of nearly 9% in the 20 days after three-month implied correlations topped 65-day highs with the benchmark stock index hovering near multi-year peaks, as it is now, according to Macro Risk Advisors data going back to 2007. At the same time, however, 'these spikes ultimately produce sentiment extremes where stocks end up higher six months out,' Kolovos said. The spike in implied correlations is a shift from the beginning of the year, when the measure stood near historic lows following a rally that accelerated after Trump's victory in November's presidential election. Low correlations can be a positive sign for markets, as they suggest company-specific fundamentals are swaying prices, rather than worries over broader macroeconomic risks. Conversely, large-scale macro worries - such as the tariffs on Canada and Mexico and increased duties on China imposed earlier this week - can often cause stocks to fall together, with investors paying less attention to individual companies' fundamentals as fear grips markets. That was the case in late 2018, when trade tensions and worries over Federal Reserve policy buffeted a tightly correlated stock market, leading the S&P to fall almost 20% from its high at one point. Despite recent swings, correlations are far lower now, with the three-month index at 22, compared to a high of 46 during the 2018 selloff. Volatility has picked up further ahead of Friday's monthly jobs report. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is at its highest since December — topping the 20 level that traders view as signifying a more turbulent environment. A gauge of implied volatility in the VIX Index — the VVIX — is hovering 23% above its one-year average. Still, there are signs the latest bout of stock swings may not last long. A ratio comparing Cboe's index measuring one-month correlations to its three-month counterpart stood at 1.2 on Tuesday, near the top of its range since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Historically, it's been rare to see the indicator rise much further from current levels, said Colton Loder, managing principal of Cohalo, an alternative investment firm. 'This means that the spike in implied correlations and volatility may prove to be short-lived,' he said. The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World's Most Popular Vapes Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? Greenland Voters Weigh Their Election's Most Important Issue: Trump Trump's SALT Tax Promise Hinges on an Obscure Loophole Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
