Latest news with #MaddenJulianOscillation
Washington Post
a day ago
- Climate
- Washington Post
Hurricane season is off to a fast start — at least in the Pacific Ocean
A flurry of tropical cyclone activity over the past two weeks in the eastern Pacific Ocean just off the west coast of Mexico has produced three named storms so far — with more storms expected. Early Wednesday, a system named Cosme was a weak tropical storm about 500 miles from the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Earlier in the workweek, Barbara became the first hurricane of the season in the northern hemisphere when it maxed out at a 75 mph Category 1. The storms follow Alvin, which formed in late May. All have been swirling out at sea, none threatening land thus far. This spurt of activity shows no signs of ending for now. Additional disturbances are already on the map, and the same general pattern is expected to persist through the month. It's a whole other story in the Atlantic Ocean, where it has been calm and no storms have yet developed. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two additional areas in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The first, currently south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, has a 90 percent chance of storms in the next week. It is slated to take a similar path to recent systems, tracing the coast of Mexico several hundred miles offshore. Weather model forecasts suggest a coherent low pressure system will slowly develop and could become a named system in a region similar to the earlier three. On its heels, there are signs that yet another disturbance will form near the coast of Central America late weekend or into early next week. It is also expected to end up in an environment favorable for a tropical cyclone, but since it's more distant, the forecast is less certain. Any concerns of storms hitting landfall are minimal for now. Instead, the storms are expected to bring moisture to Mexico and the southern U.S. Storms in the Pacific have mostly formed where expected this time of year; they have just been more frequent than typical. The three named storms to date are more common at the end of June or early July. Similarly, the first hurricane in the Pacific doesn't typically arrive until the last week of June. A somewhat favorable phase of the tropical Madden Julian Oscillation may have helped recent storms along. The MJO is characterized by eastward propagating weather patterns that either promote rising air and storminess or sinking air and stability. This pass of the MJO was expected to trickle into portions of the Atlantic ahead but may stall out before getting much past the Central American continent. While the burst of storms has been notable, it's far from unheard of. As recently as 2021, there were three named storms by June and six by the end of the month. Closing in on two weeks into the Atlantic hurricane season that began June 1, there has yet to be anything serious brewing in the basin. That may continue for a while as there are minimal signs of development in the near future. While it's not unusual for the Pacific Ocean to kick off first — its season begins May 15 — many recent years have featured early named storms in the Atlantic Ocean. This year is unusual. Over the past decade all seasons but one had a named storm in the Atlantic by this date. The exception was 2024, when the first named storm in what would become a very active and destructive season waited until June 19 to capture a name. Water temperatures remain warmer than average in most of the Atlantic despite comparative cooling versus this time last year. Frequent episodes of dust associated with the Saharan Air Layer and unfavorably strong winds across development regions may be helping stifle activity, although most storms this early in the season form closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico or near the Southeast coast. The fact that cold fronts have tended to get hung up over the Southern U.S. rather than further offshore may play a role as those zones tend to offer development in May and June. The global hotspot for tropical development is expected to remain in the eastern Pacific through the rest of June, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Released Tuesday, their outlooks for the weeks of June 18 to June 24 and June 25 to July 1 indicate a high likelihood of additional tropical development in the region. As far as the Atlantic goes, the center also includes the Bay of Campeche in the potential development region mid-month but tends to favor quieter conditions. Even so, disturbed areas of weather can become tropical cyclones on short notice — and it's important to remain vigilant as the summer progresses.
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Canadian wildfire smoke drifted into the southeastern U.S. but did it make it to South Florida?
A filmy haze draped over South Florida early Monday as National Weather Service meteorologists braced the region for days of rain that could total more than 6 inches through Wednesday, June 4. Whether the murk was smoke from Canadian wildfires wafting south, Saharan dust, a steamy mix of tropical water vapor and heat, or a combination of all of the above, was up for some debate. Ana Torres-Vazques, a meteorologist with the NWS in Miami, analyzed what was happening in the atmosphere on June 2 when visibilities at the Boca Raton Airport were down to 2 miles. She said even a wildfire in Monroe County could have contributed to the morning miasma. 'Could it be the Canadian fires?,' she said in a discussion on an NWS website. 'Direct, definitive attribution is tricky.' But she surmised the most likely cause was a thin layer of Saharan dust and light southwesterly breezes blowing in smoke from the so-called Sandy wildfire in Monroe. And while Saharan dust is known to dry out the atmosphere, diminishing rainfall and thunderstorms, it's not expected to squash heavy rainfall through Wednesday that is forecast to bring nearly 4 inches of rain to coastal Palm Beach County and up to 6.5 inches in southern Miami Dade County. Most of the rain is expected to fall Monday and Tuesday. Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Tony Fracasso blamed a stubborn front draped over Central and South Florida for the potentially heavy rainfall. More: Hurricane season 2025: New forecast calls for above normal season but questions remain 'There is pretty much always a lot of moisture around Florida so the front acts as a mechanism to focus that rainfall,' Fracasso said. May ended almost normal for rainfall in West Palm Beach with 4.3 inches as measured at Palm Beach International Airport, but the area is down 8.6 inches for the year. Most of Palm Beach is considered in severe to extreme drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Meteorologists are also watching the tropics as hurricane season began Sunday, June 1. Michael Lowry, a hurricane expert with South Florida ABC-TV affiliate WPLG-Channel 10, said the Atlantic is 'closed for business' for the next week to week and a half with harsh upper-level winds and Saharan dust squashing potential tropical development. That changes closer to the middle of the month as the Madden Julian Oscillation — a travelling pulse of storms that can incite tropical cyclones — crosses into the Atlantic. 'We should see a configuration that'll favor storminess around Central America by late next week into the weekend of June 14,' Lowry said in Eye on the Tropics column. 'Stay aware, stay informed, and be ready for your one, should this year be the one.' Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@ Help support our local journalism, subscribe today. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Canadian wildfire smoke and Saharan dust suspected in South Florida haze
