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Trust deficit threatens Guinea's peaceful return to civilian rule
Trust deficit threatens Guinea's peaceful return to civilian rule

Daily Maverick

time29-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Daily Maverick

Trust deficit threatens Guinea's peaceful return to civilian rule

Despite some progress, consensus on the electoral process and the expansion of democratic freedoms remains crucial. Since the military coup that ousted president Alpha Condé in 2021, the handling of Guinea's transition back to civilian rule has been criticised. In particular, the Forces vives de Guinée (FVG) group of political parties and civil society organisations has pointed to slow progress in keeping to the transition timetable. Although positive steps were recently taken – notably the announcement of a constitutional referendum date – these haven't been enough to build trust between political actors and the transitional government. According to the 10-point timetable agreed to by General Mamadi Doumbouya's junta and the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), the transition was to end in December 2024 with elections. That deadline was extended to 2025. On 1 April, the transitional government announced a constitutional referendum scheduled for 21 September – an important milestone and a prerequisite for holding presidential, legislative and local elections. Authorities also clarified progress achieved, especially regarding three of the timetable's 10 points: the administrative civil status census (Recensement Administratif à Vocation d'État Civil, or Ravec), drawing up a voters roll and drafting a new constitution. When the transition timetable was adopted, many questioned the appropriateness of compiling the voters roll from the computerised Ravec-generated civil register, and called for the register to be revised. However, to save time, the transitional authorities decided to maintain Ravec and conduct a parallel electoral census by 20 June. The new draft constitution – based on several written and oral contributions – was presented in July 2024 and disseminated among citizens. The draft was adopted by the transitional parliament on 9 April and forwarded to Doumbouya. Given Guinea's troubled political and institutional history, this inclusive process was a vital step in guaranteeing the country's post-transition stability. Prime Minister Bah Oury has raised the possibility of holding the presidential and legislative elections in tandem following the constitutional referendum. This echoes FVG members' call for the timetable to be revised to allow these elections to be held simultaneously, while leaving it to the next civilian leadership to organise the local elections. This option, which reverses the initial election sequence – from local to presidential – seems pragmatic, particularly considering the shortages of resources needed to meet transition timetable deadlines. These decisions provide much-needed clarity on the steps needed to end the transition. But the crisis of confidence between political actors and transitional authorities could still obstruct efforts to peacefully achieve a constitutional order. The crisis is fuelled by a lack of consensus on the electoral process, the closing of political and civic space and disagreement around Doumbouya's possible candidacy for the next presidential election. While the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MATD) has announced it will organise all the elections scheduled on the timetable, the main political parties want an independent and impartial electoral commission to have this responsibility. The authorities plan to set up an Independent Technical Body for Electoral Management, comprising political party and civil society representatives. But this body will only monitor and supervise the electoral process, while the MATD organises the polls. How the Independent Technical Body for Electoral Management functions will be decisive, particularly at a time when civic life is being constrained. These constraints include a ban on protests since May 2022, the disappearance of civil society organisation leaders and a journalist, and state restrictions on the media. Added to this – against a backdrop of intra-party quarrels – is the provisional suspension of the main opposition parties (Union of Republican Forces and Rally of the Guinean People) following a MATD evaluation of political parties. The political class fears this will serve the transitional authorities by consolidating their position ahead of elections. Already, shows of support for the ruling National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD) and its president, Doumbouya, are multiplying. Members of the CNRD and government have publicly affirmed their backing for his candidacy in the next presidential election. Yet Doumbouya has repeatedly promised that neither he nor any member of the transitional government or parliament would stand in an election to end the transition. This aligns with Guinea's transitional charter and the African Union's (AU) normative framework – to which the transitional authorities have reaffirmed their commitment. Some opposition and civil society members see recent trips around the country by CNRD and transitional government members as disguised election campaigns to prepare the public for a Doumbouya candidacy. An Afrobarometer study shows that while Guineans have a relatively high level of confidence in the transitional authorities and are satisfied with its achievements in terms of road infrastructure, their desire for democracy remains. As Guinea moves towards constitutional order, it needs help from international actors and partners. Ecowas' technical mission to Conakry in April to support the transition is welcomed. Its assistance to the transitional government, notably in mobilising funding through a 'round table of partners', is also significant. With the backing of the AU and the United Nations (UN), this technical support should be complemented by sustained political and diplomatic efforts, as the UN's November 2024 assessment report indicated. Such efforts must consider the regional context and the need for Ecowas to stand by its democratic governance principles. Ecowas should encourage dialogue to reach consensus on the technical and political conditions for holding the various elections. Talks will reduce tensions and help foster a more peaceful environment ahead of the polls. This is vital, considering that electoral crises have historically been a catalyst for political tensions in Guinea. DM

Junta led Guinea to hold presidential elections in December
Junta led Guinea to hold presidential elections in December

Business Insider

time12-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Business Insider

Junta led Guinea to hold presidential elections in December

Guinea's Prime Minister has announced December 2025 as the new date for national elections, aiming to reassure investors during a speech on Monday at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Guinea has announced December 2025 for national elections, aiming to reassure stakeholders and investors. A constitutional referendum is scheduled prior to elections on September 21, 2025. The announcement was made by Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah as the government plans to transition back to civilian rule. Guinea's Prime Minister has announced December 2025 as the new date for national elections, aiming to reassure investors during a speech on Monday at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah announced while discussing the West African country's massive Simandou iron ore project. "The constitutional referendum will be on September 21 and the legislative and presidential elections will be in December," he said. "I can assure you that Simandou's first train will arrive before the elections." General Mamadi Doumbouya seized power in September 2021, toppling President Alpha Condé after he controversially amended the constitution to extend presidential terms from five to six years, allowing himself a third term following the end of his second term in 2020. Missed transition deadlines While the junta proposed a two-year transition to civilian rule in 2022, it failed to take tangible steps toward organising elections. A key deadline of December 31, 2024, to restore democratic governance came and went without progress. Now, the military government has announced a revised timeline. A constitutional referendum is scheduled for September 21, 2025, an exercise authorities insist must precede national elections and a full return to constitutional order. Yet, concerns about the credibility of this transition persist. Guinea's political space remains tightly controlled, with the two former ruling parties suspended and the main opposition party, the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea, placed under surveillance. These restrictions cast doubt on the fairness and inclusiveness of the electoral process ahead.

Guinea Moves to Cancel Mining Rights of Non-Compliant Companies
Guinea Moves to Cancel Mining Rights of Non-Compliant Companies

Bloomberg

time09-05-2025

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Guinea Moves to Cancel Mining Rights of Non-Compliant Companies

Guinea's transitional President General Mamadi Doumbouya instructed his government to withdraw permits and concessions from mining companies that don't respect their legal commitments to the country. The head of state has 'reiterated that compliance with contractual commitments and deadlines is non-negotiable,' Minister of Information and Communication Fana Soumah said late Thursday on state broadcaster Radio Television Guineenne.

Guinea sets date in September for key referendum that would launch return to democracy
Guinea sets date in September for key referendum that would launch return to democracy

Arab Times

time03-04-2025

  • Politics
  • Arab Times

Guinea sets date in September for key referendum that would launch return to democracy

CONAKRY, Guinea, April 3, (AP): Guinea's military junta has set Sept. 21 as the date for a long-promised constitutional referendum that would set the west African country on the path of a return to democratic rule more than three years after it experienced a coup. A presidential decree scheduling the referendum for the adoption of a new constitution was read on state television late Tuesday by Gen Amara Camara, secretary-general of the presidency. Guinea is one of several West African countries where militaries have staged coups and delayed a return to civilian rule. Guinea is governed by a military charter that serves the transition period following the suspension of the constitution in the aftermath of the coup. Junta leader Col. Mamadi Doumbouya, in power since 2021, initially set Dec 31 as the deadline to launch a democratic transition. However, he missed the deadline, triggering protests and criticism from activists and opposition figures. Under growing pressure, Doumbouya promised in his New Year's message that a decree for the constitutional referendum will be signed. Authorities have also said that all elections would be held this year, without committing to a particular date. Activists and opposition groups have accused the junta leader of arresting critics, including journalists, on false charges in what rights groups have described as a clampdown on civic rights to strengthen his grip on power and prolong military rule.

Guinea sets a date in September for a key referendum that would launch a return to democracy
Guinea sets a date in September for a key referendum that would launch a return to democracy

The Independent

time02-04-2025

  • Politics
  • The Independent

Guinea sets a date in September for a key referendum that would launch a return to democracy

Guinea's military junta has set Sept. 21 as the date for a long-promised constitutional referendum that would set the west African country on the path of a return to democratic rule more than three years after it experienced a coup. A presidential decree scheduling the referendum for the adoption of a new constitution was read on state television late Tuesday by Gen. Amara Camara, secretary-general of the presidency. Guinea is one of several West African countries where militaries have staged coups and delayed a return to civilian rule. Guinea is governed by a military charter that serves the transition period following the suspension of the constitution in the aftermath of the coup. Junta leader Col. Mamadi Doumbouya, in power since 2021, initially set Dec. 31 as the deadline to launch a democratic transition. However, he missed the deadline, triggering protests and criticism from activists and opposition figures. Under growing pressure, Doumbouya promised in his New Year's message that a decree for the constitutional referendum will be signed. Authorities have also said that all elections would be held this year, without committing to a particular date. Activists and opposition groups have accused the junta leader of arresting critics, including journalists, on false charges in what rights groups have described as a clampdown on civic rights to strengthen his grip on power and prolong military rule.

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