Latest news with #ManishGunwani
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Indian stock market outperforms global market indices: Bandhan Mutual Fund
India emerged as the top-performing market globally in the three months ending May 2025, delivering a robust 16% return. In comparison, emerging markets gained 5%, while world and developed market indices saw modest gains of just 2% during the same period, according to the latest Bandhan Mutual Fund Monthly Market Outlook. According to the outlook, India is also the top performing market over a longer period of five years, delivering US dollar returns of 18%, beating the 12% return of the world and developed markets and delivering more than 4X the emerging market returns and India's returns from the lows hit on March 20. Source: Bandhan Mutual Fund June 25 Market outlook Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » In May, China stood out amongst major markets globally by falling 2%, whilst other major global markets saw gains. Also Read | NFO Insight: Baroda BNP Paribas Health and Wellness Fund opens. Is it the right prescription for your portfolio? Live Events In terms of market capitalisation, small caps have given the best returns over the last 3 months, 5 years and since March 2020. Mid caps were the second-best-performing capitalisation category over the same period, followed by the large caps. Source: Bandhan Mutual Fund June 25 Market outlook In May 2025, while most sectoral indices showed gains, utilities gave almost flat returns, while metals were marginally negative. In contrast, industrials, capital goods and telecom all delivered double-digit gains in May, while the lowest positive gains in the sector were delivered by the traditionally defensive sectors of FMCG, Healthcare and IT. India's Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) increased m-o-m, indicating a service sector recovery. Conversely, the Manufacturing PMI declined m-o-m, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Continued weakness in the US$, falling interest rates in the domestic economy, and earnings broadly in line with muted expectations helped drive the market higher in May 2025, said the fund house in its June 2025 market outlook. 'We expect continued volatility during the next couple of quarters, as the US continues to sign trade deals. While economic activity has remained strong due to the front-loading of global trade, there could be significant disruptions as the tariffs come into force. The domestic economy seems to be turning around and is much better placed than the global economy,' said Manish Gunwani , Head Equities, Bandhan AMC. Also Read | HDFC Defence Fund adds Bharat Forge and Bharat Dynamics in its portfolio in May On the fiscal front, India's FY25 central government accounts met the revised estimate of 4.8% of GDP , with the FY26 deficit budgeted at 4.4%. Inflation data showed negative momentum in CPI food prices for the sixth consecutive month, and core inflation inched up. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an 'above-normal' southwest monsoon, contributing to a benign inflation outlook. Bank credit outstanding as of May 16, 2025 grew 9.8% YoY, with deposits up 10% YoY. 'The recent surprise 50 bps rate cut and 100 bps CRR cut by the RBI underscore a proactive stance to ensure rapid monetary transmission, aiming to support growth,' said Suyash Choudhary, Head fixed income, Bandhan AMC.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Indian stock market outperforms global market indices: Bandhan Mutual Fund
India emerged as the top-performing market globally in the three months ending May 2025, delivering a robust 16% return. In comparison, emerging markets gained 5%, while world and developed market indices saw modest gains of just 2% during the same period, according to the latest Bandhan Mutual Fund Monthly Market to the outlook, India is also the top performing market over a longer period of five years, delivering US dollar returns of 18%, beating the 12% return of the world and developed markets and delivering more than 4X the emerging market returns and India's returns from the lows hit on March 20. Source: Bandhan Mutual Fund June 25 Market outlook In May, China stood out amongst major markets globally by falling 2%, whilst other major global markets saw Read | NFO Insight: Baroda BNP Paribas Health and Wellness Fund opens. Is it the right prescription for your portfolio? In terms of market capitalisation, small caps have given the best returns over the last 3 months, 5 years and since March 2020. Mid caps were the second-best-performing capitalisation category over the same period, followed by the large caps. Source: Bandhan Mutual Fund June 25 Market outlook In May 2025, while most sectoral indices showed gains, utilities gave almost flat returns, while metals were marginally negative. In contrast, industrials, capital goods and telecom all delivered double-digit gains in May, while the lowest positive gains in the sector were delivered by the traditionally defensive sectors of FMCG, Healthcare and IT. India's Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) increased m-o-m, indicating a service sector recovery. Conversely, the Manufacturing PMI declined m-o-m, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Continued weakness in the US$, falling interest rates in the domestic economy, and earnings broadly in line with muted expectations helped drive the market higher in May 2025, said the fund house in its June 2025 market outlook. 'We expect continued volatility during the next couple of quarters, as the US continues to sign trade deals. While economic activity has remained strong due to the front-loading of global trade, there could be significant disruptions as the tariffs come into force. The domestic economy seems to be turning around and is much better placed than the global economy,' said Manish Gunwani, Head Equities, Bandhan AMC. Also Read | HDFC Defence Fund adds Bharat Forge and Bharat Dynamics in its portfolio in May On the fiscal front, India's FY25 central government accounts met the revised estimate of 4.8% of GDP, with the FY26 deficit budgeted at 4.4%. Inflation data showed negative momentum in CPI food prices for the sixth consecutive month, and core inflation inched up. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an 'above-normal' southwest monsoon, contributing to a benign inflation outlook. Bank credit outstanding as of May 16, 2025 grew 9.8% YoY, with deposits up 10% YoY. 'The recent surprise 50 bps rate cut and 100 bps CRR cut by the RBI underscore a proactive stance to ensure rapid monetary transmission, aiming to support growth,' said Suyash Choudhary, Head fixed income, Bandhan AMC.
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market gives 18% returns in 5 years, beats China, other global market peers; small-cap stocks outperform
Indian stock market has emerged as the top-performing globally, significantly outpacing both developed and emerging market peers over short and long-term horizons, according to the June 2025 Monthly Market Outlook by Bandhan Mutual Fund. For the three-month period ending May 2025, Indian equities delivered an impressive 16% return, sharply outperforming the 5% gain in emerging markets and the modest 2% rise in world and developed markets. The data highlights India's resilience and continued investor interest despite global uncertainties. Over a five-year horizon, Indian stock market has been the best-performing market in US dollar terms, delivering 18% annualised returns. This surpasses the 12% returns of world and developed markets and is over four times higher than returns from emerging markets, the fund house noted. In contrast, China saw a 2% decline in May 2025, standing out negatively among major global markets, most of which ended the month in green. Index/Returns in USD 3 Months 5-Year India 16% 18% World 2% 12% Developed Markets 2% 12% Emerging Markets 5% 4% From a market capitalisation lens, small-cap stocks have been the top performers over the last three months, five years, and since the pandemic lows of March 2020. Mid-caps came in second, followed by large-caps, highlighting the strong risk appetite and domestic participation in broader segments of the market. Time Period/ Returns 3 Months 5 Years Large-caps 13% 22% Mid-caps 17% 32% Small-caps 21% 36% Sector-wise, industrials, capital goods, and telecom led the rally in May with double-digit returns, driven by strong earnings and policy tailwinds. In contrast, FMCG, healthcare and IT, traditionally seen as defensive sectors, posted the lowest positive returns, while utilities were flat and metals saw marginal declines. India's Services PMI rose in May, pointing to a recovery in the services sector. However, the Manufacturing PMI slipped, reflecting some slowdown in industrial output. The fund house noted that a weakening US dollar, falling domestic interest rates, and earnings largely in line with expectations contributed to the robust market performance. 'The domestic economy seems to be turning around and is much better placed than the global economy,' said Manish Gunwani, Head Equities, Bandhan AMC. He also cautioned about near-term volatility due to global trade developments. 'As the US continues to sign trade deals, the front-loading of global trade has supported activity, but the introduction of tariffs could disrupt flows.' On the macroeconomic front, India's FY25 fiscal deficit met the revised target of 4.8% of GDP, with FY26 budgeted at 4.4%, indicating continued fiscal discipline. Inflation momentum appears benign, with food CPI showing negative growth for the sixth consecutive month, while core inflation edged higher. The India Meteorological Department's forecast of an above-normal monsoon is expected to support food supply and keep inflationary pressures in check. Meanwhile, the RBI's surprise 50 basis point rate cut and a 100 basis point CRR reduction signal a strong pro-growth bias, aimed at ensuring swift monetary transmission. 'This proactive stance is intended to support economic recovery and fuel credit growth,' said Suyash Choudhary, Head – Fixed Income, Bandhan AMC. As of May 16, 2025, bank credit grew 9.8% YoY, while deposits increased 10%, underscoring improving liquidity and confidence in the financial system. While India appears well-placed relative to global peers, Gunwani expects market volatility to persist in the coming quarters, driven by external uncertainties such as global trade realignments and geopolitical developments. However, strong domestic macro fundamentals, a benign inflation outlook, and supportive fiscal and monetary policy provide a solid cushion for Indian equities. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisio
Economic Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
No froth in market; largecaps may offer short-term value: Manish Gunwani
Manish Gunwani, Head-Equity, Bandhan AMC, says equity markets, with a 6% real return over the past decade, don't currently signal bubble concerns. While large caps may offer short-term value, focusing on themes and bottom-up investing presents sufficient risk-reward. Anticipated foreign capital inflow into India over three to five years, influenced by dollar trends, should sustain market attractiveness. Earnings have been okay and macros have improved on the margin, but markets have been great, which means the price action has been more exciting than the change in the economy. At this juncture, are markets pricing in a lot of good news or is this something which markets will be able to digest and sustain? Manish Gunwani: There is a feeling that markets are frothy, but that is probably because of mid and smallcap performance over the last three years. Objectively, if you see long-term data, the best correlation of market levels is not to GDP growth but to inflation. The 10-year real return on Nifty 500 is about 6%, which is where it should be theoretically because empirically, every market tends to converge at about 5-7% real return in equities when you see very long-term data. Obviously, this does not work on a one- or two-year kind of time frame. I do not think this is a market to be excessively worried about. There is a bit of narrative about this being a bubble. I do not know, means the data does not seem to suggest that in 10 years, the equity markets have returned about 6% real return, it is not typically a level at which you should worry too much about market level. Now, you could say largecaps are cheaper and all that, yes, from a one-year perspective that may work. But it is a market where if we focus on just themes and bottom-up investing, there is enough risk-reward available. I would like to draw your attention to the whole FII aspect. Suddenly, they are back and when FIIs come back, they tend to stay for long. Can we be reasonably sure that in the next few months, liquidity will not be a problem? FIIs are back, promoters are not selling, IPOs have dried up. So, at least on the liquidity front you can be more constructive. Manish Gunwani: As I said, ultimately you are part of the world. Now, if you have a country where your biggest import, energy, is structurally looking weak in terms of prices because of EVs and renewables and if you have a country where the biggest export which is services seem to be very resilient. So, even when listed IT services companies have slowed down, if you see our net services export has held up remarkably well, if someone is looking at long-term asset allocation globally, it is difficult to believe that you can be negative on Indian rupee or Indian assets, that does not mean every three months we will see positive foreign flows. But if you take a three-five-year view, I would think that foreign capital should come meaningfully into India. Maybe fixed income and FDI are more attractive because we tend to be expensive on listed equities, but we will not see any big outflows in the sense that yes, we saw outflows but ultimately if the market is attractive, foreign inflows will be healthy and the near-term, not everything but a big factor is the dollar. If the dollar index went from 110 to 99, I do not think it is very surprising to see foreign flows turning positive.
