Latest news with #ManishiRaychaudhuri
Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
EUROPE No 'best offers' yet as tariff deadline looms
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee Today is the deadline for U.S. trading partners to submit their "best offer" to avoid punishing import tax rates, the same day that U.S. duties on imported steel and aluminium kick in, and investors are more jittery than usual. So far, only Britain has struck a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. during Trump's 90-day pause on a wider array of tariffs. That pause is set to expire in about five weeks and investors have been worried about the lack of progress in hashing out deals. Adding to the angst, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo has not received a letter from Washington asking for its best proposals on trade talks. The on-again-off-again tariff pronouncements from Trump this year have investors fleeing U.S. assets and looking for safe havens and alternatives, including gold. They expect trade uncertainties will take a heavy toll on the global economy. The main question in financial markets has been where the money that usually flowed into U.S. assets will end up going. For years, money managers embraced the fatalistic presumption that "there-is-no-alternative" (TINA ... yes, markets love acronyms) but perhaps there are options now. As Manishi Raychaudhuri, the founder and CEO of Emmer Capital Partners Ltd, puts it: While Europe may be the obvious destination, relative value metrics may favour emerging Asia. The data so far does not give a complete picture. But what it does show is investors are lowering their exposure to U.S. assets, and only time will tell where they end up. Asian markets rose on Wednesday, boosted by tech stocks as traders hope a deal could still be possible if and when U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping talk this week. The spotlight in Asia was also on South Korean assets. Seoul's benchmark share index (.KS11), opens new tab surged to 10-month top and the currency firmed as liberal presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung's election victory raised expectations for swift economic stimulus and market reforms. European futures point to a slightly higher open ahead of a series of manufacturing data from the region and as the European Central Bank starts its policy meeting. The ECB is all but certain to cut rates on Thursday and stay on its easing cycle as muted wage growth, a strong euro and lukewarm economic growth all point to easing inflation. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone inflation in May eased below the ECB target of 2%. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: Economic events: May PMI data for UK, euro zone, Germany and France Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.
Economic Times
21-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Global bond market volatility fueling shift towards Asia-Pacific equities: Manishi Raychaudhuri
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "Investors are beginning to kind of understand that. Second, and possibly more importantly, we are also seeing earnings estimates continue to come down, during this just concluded result season, we are in the last few days of it," says Manishi Raychaudhuri , Veteran Investor In Asian we take a step back and look at around the first or second week of April when we first had the Liberation Day tariffs and a roll back of those tariffs or postponement on 9th of April, since then Indian markets and entire Asian markets have had a solid run. They have moved up almost anywhere between 10% to 15% because depending on which market you look at and after that it is time for the Indian market in the near term to take a breather and that is exactly what we are only have the markets run up very sharply over a short span of time, we are also seeing valuations which are close to about 50% to 55% higher than the Asia ex-Japan average in terms of forward PE multiples and more than 100% higher in terms of forward price to book these averages, if you look at the past 15 years, are usually about 40% and close to 60% respectively. So, it is way higher than the long-term are beginning to kind of understand that. Second, and possibly more importantly, we are also seeing earnings estimates continue to come down, during this just concluded result season, we are in the last few days of consensus EPS estimates for India both for fiscal 26 and fiscal 27 they are down about 5% to 6%. So, these are the things which are kind of playing in the mind of investors right is not something to be too worried about over the longer term because we are now seeing some of the green shoots emerge in terms of consumption potentially coming back, even government spending on infrastructure coming back, even interest rates they have begun to be cut and with the very benign inflation environment, we are going to have that kind of a situation in the foreseeable time horizon. So, long-term looks fine, short-term the market would take a breather, maybe bit of a time correction from now.I mean, over last few months right from the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 we had this sell emerging markets, buy United States, this trade going on. Now, we are seeing over the past couple of months a reversal of that trade for justifiable is lack of confidence as far as the US markets are concerned. It is partly because of the uneven or this unsettled policy environment that we are seeing over there and as a consequence of much higher inflation expectations, we have also seen bond yields move up, which means that the US bonds, US treasuries which are theoretically and historically being seen as a safe haven investment, they are being sold down and sold down quite this trend for now is likely to continue. We are seeing money move into emerging markets and particularly Asia-Pacific. Anyway, Asia is about 80% of emerging markets. As of now the big gainers have been North Asia which is Hong Kong, China, partly Korea of late and to some extent have improved in India as well from late April, but they still remain volatile on a day-to-day basis. But I would think that if the present situation continues, which is growth estimates being revised down in the United States and inflation estimates being revised up, which leads to bond yields remaining high over there, then this present flow trend that we are seeing, flows coming out of developed markets into emerging markets would continue for now.
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Global bond market volatility fueling shift towards Asia-Pacific equities: Manishi Raychaudhuri
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "Investors are beginning to kind of understand that. Second, and possibly more importantly, we are also seeing earnings estimates continue to come down, during this just concluded result season, we are in the last few days of it," says Manishi Raychaudhuri , Veteran Investor In Asian we take a step back and look at around the first or second week of April when we first had the Liberation Day tariffs and a roll back of those tariffs or postponement on 9th of April, since then Indian markets and entire Asian markets have had a solid run. They have moved up almost anywhere between 10% to 15% because depending on which market you look at and after that it is time for the Indian market in the near term to take a breather and that is exactly what we are only have the markets run up very sharply over a short span of time, we are also seeing valuations which are close to about 50% to 55% higher than the Asia ex-Japan average in terms of forward PE multiples and more than 100% higher in terms of forward price to book these averages, if you look at the past 15 years, are usually about 40% and close to 60% respectively. So, it is way higher than the long-term are beginning to kind of understand that. Second, and possibly more importantly, we are also seeing earnings estimates continue to come down, during this just concluded result season, we are in the last few days of consensus EPS estimates for India both for fiscal 26 and fiscal 27 they are down about 5% to 6%. So, these are the things which are kind of playing in the mind of investors right is not something to be too worried about over the longer term because we are now seeing some of the green shoots emerge in terms of consumption potentially coming back, even government spending on infrastructure coming back, even interest rates they have begun to be cut and with the very benign inflation environment, we are going to have that kind of a situation in the foreseeable time horizon. So, long-term looks fine, short-term the market would take a breather, maybe bit of a time correction from now.I mean, over last few months right from the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 we had this sell emerging markets, buy United States, this trade going on. Now, we are seeing over the past couple of months a reversal of that trade for justifiable is lack of confidence as far as the US markets are concerned. It is partly because of the uneven or this unsettled policy environment that we are seeing over there and as a consequence of much higher inflation expectations, we have also seen bond yields move up, which means that the US bonds, US treasuries which are theoretically and historically being seen as a safe haven investment, they are being sold down and sold down quite this trend for now is likely to continue. We are seeing money move into emerging markets and particularly Asia-Pacific. Anyway, Asia is about 80% of emerging markets. As of now the big gainers have been North Asia which is Hong Kong, China, partly Korea of late and to some extent have improved in India as well from late April, but they still remain volatile on a day-to-day basis. But I would think that if the present situation continues, which is growth estimates being revised down in the United States and inflation estimates being revised up, which leads to bond yields remaining high over there, then this present flow trend that we are seeing, flows coming out of developed markets into emerging markets would continue for now.
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Surging Asian Currencies Spur Hunt for Winners in Stock Markets
(Bloomberg) -- A recent surge in Asian currencies is shifting the outlook for the region's equities, with money managers and strategists favoring stocks tied to local consumption and expecting a return of global funds. Most Read from Bloomberg Morgan Stanley strategists said they like markets including India and the Philippines, where stocks tend to be more geared toward domestic demand. They favor sectors such as real estate and financials. Aberdeen Investments prefers defensive plays like consumer and healthcare stocks, while Societe Generale SA sees India as a major beneficiary from its trade negotiations with the US. A stronger currency tends to put exporters at a disadvantage, but the appreciation trend in Asia can be an overall positive for stocks if foreign investors are lured by the exchange-rate outlook. Central banks also have more leeway to cut interest rates to support the economy. Stocks in Taiwan have seen global funds return after months of outflows as the local currency advanced nearly 10% over the past month. For India too, currency gains have coincided with foreign inflows into stocks. 'When Asian currencies appreciate, it almost always leads to foreign fund inflows into Asian equities,' said Manishi Raychaudhuri, chief executive officer at Emmer Capital. 'The markets that would receive the highest flows are likely the markets that were sold down the most, including India, Korea and Taiwan.' Raychaudhuri added he likes domestically oriented stocks such as Chinese internet platforms, Korean and Chinese financials, Indian banks and consumer discretionaries. The Malaysian ringgit and South Korean won have also strengthened more than 4% against the greenback over the past month. The advance in Asia's currencies reinforces the 'sell America' theme and provides a major tailwind for regional equities to continue to outperform the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained 4.8% this year, compared with a near 4% drop in the S&P 500 Index. 'In Asia we have started to observe some returns of foreign flows into India equities,' said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale. 'If the market starts to price that the dollar could also decline versus the whole emerging market FX, that would be an additional bull element for emerging equities.'
