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India Gazette
2 days ago
- Business
- India Gazette
Robust GDP growth in FY25 because of good domestic consumption & government investment: Economists
New Delhi [India], May 31 (ANI): The robust GDP numbers of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2025 are because of good domestic consumption, government investment, and relatively lower dependence on exports, say experts reacting to the numbers. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomeric Valuations and Ratings said 'India's economy rose by 6.5 per cent in FY 25, in line with the estimates making it once again the world's fastest-growing major economy. This strengthens the thought that India is once again one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Growth outlook has remained robust because of the domestic consumption, govt investment and relatively lower dependence on exports.' India's economy grew by 7.4 per cent in the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY25, beating expectations and marking the strongest quarterly growth of the fiscal year. This was a sharp rise from the 6.2per cent recorded in the previous quarter. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had forecast 7.2 per cent growth for Q4 and 6.6 per cent for the full FY25 in its last monetary policy meeting. For FY26, the central bank has projected 6.5 per cent growth, citing expected improvement in private consumption and steady investment activity. Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader, Economic Advisory at PwC India, noted that the 6.5% growth for FY25 is a strong outcome despite global headwinds. He said 'The manufacturing growth has printed weak and it is a matter of concern, especially given the trade-related disruptions and global economic slowdown expected in FY26'. Banerjee also pointed out that Gross Fixed Capital Formation rose by 8.8 per cent, possibly due to increased private capex, as government capital expenditure did not rise significantly over the previous year. Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO of CBRE India, Southeast Asia, Middle East & Africa, said the growth beat expectations and showed resilience. He credited the rise to strong domestic demand, a recovery in rural markets, and activity in the industrial sector. He said 'The growth highlights strong domestic demand, rural market recovery, and an active industrial sector. The economy's adaptability is evident in the broad industry growth'. He also noted that growth in the construction and financial sectors has helped the real estate market by boosting investments and homebuyer confidence. Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said the Q4 growth partly reflects back-loaded government spending, mainly through public capital expenditure. She noted that capital formation remained steady, but FY26 could face challenges due to global uncertainties affecting investment sentiment and softer urban income weighing on private consumption. Overall, experts agree that India's economic growth in FY25 has been resilient, driven by domestic factors, though risks remain for the upcoming year due to global and domestic challenges. (ANI)
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's FY25 economic growth hits four-year low of 6.5%, Q4 GDP beats estimates
India's economic growth in FY25 hit a four-year low of 6.5 per cent, slowing down sharply from the 9.2 per cent growth recorded in FY24. However, Q4 GDP growth beat estimates after accelerating to 7.4 per cent but it couldn't save the economy from posting its slowest growth since Covid-era. Nonetheless, New Delhi's key officials have backed India's growth potential and vouched that the country will retain its title as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The full-year growth remained within official projections, as private investment remained subdued amid global uncertainties. In the quarter ending March 31, 2025, India's growth stood was fastest in the four quarters, on the back of robust industrial activity and sustained global trade tensions grew larger by day. The third quarter had seen growth rise to 6.2 per cent, revised upward from an earlier estimate of 5.6 per cent, showing resilience amid global headwinds. The fourth quarter was marred by global trade disruptions led by Trump's tariffs and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the Indian economy powered through the storm on the back of pick up rural demand and healthy government spending. Moreover, the latest growth figures continue to keep New Delhi in the race of fastest economies in the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects India's economic size to surpass Japan's by the end of the year, reaching $4.18 trillion. A notable divergence between GDP and gross value added (GVA) was expected with the latter stripping out taxes and subsidies for a clearer picture of underlying economic activity. The GVA stood at 6.4 per cent. JP Morgan, for instance, estimated March quarter GDP growth at 7.5 per cent , but GVA growth at a more modest 6.7 per cent . Some analysts said that the higher-than-expected GDP print might be a reflection of a fall in government subsidies, which could inflate the headline number without reflecting equivalent real economic momentum. Despite the external challenges, the Indian economy remains relatively healthy due to its limited reliance on global goods trade, recent tax cuts, controlled inflation and a potentially softer interest rate environment. 'While external uncertainties—such as supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility—pose challenges, India continues to benefit from strong service sector performance, a stable banking system, and improving manufacturing output under schemes like PLI,' said Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuations and Ratings Ltd. In February 2025, the RBI had, for the first time in five years, cut the repo rate by 25 bps, a move expected to aid India's growth blitz. Retail inflation dropped to a near six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April, and a favourable monsoon forecast is expected to help stabilize food prices—factors that could allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider a rate cut in June. Looking ahead, the RBI has projected 6.5 per cent growth for the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2025. 'On the inflation front, CPI is expected to moderate from 4.9 per cent in FY25 to 4.3 per cent in FY26, aided by easing food prices, prudent monetary policy, and a normal monsoon forecast. However, inflationary risks persist because of global commodity prices and any escalation in geopolitical tensions,' said Sharma.
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India's FY25 economic growth hits four-year low of 6.5%, Q4 GDP beats estimates
India's economic growth slowed to a four-year low of 6.5% in FY25, despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 performance of 7.4%. Key officials remain optimistic about India's growth potential, expecting it to remain the fastest-growing major economy. Factors like robust industrial activity, rural demand, and government spending helped navigate global trade disruptions, with the IMF projecting India's economy to surpass Japan's. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India's economic growth in FY25 hit a four-year low of 6.5 per cent, slowing down sharply from the 9.2 per cent growth recorded in FY24. However, Q4 GDP growth beat estimates after accelerating to 7.4 per cent but it couldn't save the economy from posting its slowest growth since New Delhi's key officials have backed India's growth potential and vouched that the country will retain its title as the fastest-growing major economy in the full-year growth remained within official projections, as private investment remained subdued amid global the quarter ending March 31, 2025, India's growth stood was fastest in the four quarters, on the back of robust industrial activity and sustained global trade tensions grew larger by third quarter had seen growth rise to 6.2 per cent, revised upward from an earlier estimate of 5.6 per cent, showing resilience amid global fourth quarter was marred by global trade disruptions led by Trump's tariffs and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the Indian economy powered through the storm on the back of pick up rural demand and healthy government the latest growth figures continue to keep New Delhi in the race of fastest economies in the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects India's economic size to surpass Japan's by the end of the year, reaching $4.18 trillion.A notable divergence between GDP and gross value added (GVA) was expected with the latter stripping out taxes and subsidies for a clearer picture of underlying economic activity. The GVA stood at 6.4 per Morgan, for instance, estimated March quarter GDP growth at 7.5%, but GVA growth at a more modest 6.7%.Some analysts said that the higher-than-expected GDP print might be a reflection of a fall in government subsidies, which could inflate the headline number without reflecting equivalent real economic the external challenges, the Indian economy remains relatively healthy due to its limited reliance on global goods trade, recent tax cuts, controlled inflation and a potentially softer interest rate environment.'While external uncertainties—such as supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility—pose challenges, India continues to benefit from strong service sector performance, a stable banking system, and improving manufacturing output under schemes like PLI,' said Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuations and Ratings February 2025, the RBI had, for the first time in five years, cut the repo rate by 25 bps, a move expected to aid India's growth inflation dropped to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April, and a favourable monsoon forecast is expected to help stabilize food prices—factors that could allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider a rate cut in ahead, the RBI has projected 6.5% growth for the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2025.'On the inflation front, CPI is expected to moderate from 4.9% in FY25 to 4.3% in FY26, aided by easing food prices, prudent monetary policy, and a normal monsoon forecast. However, inflationary risks persist because of global commodity prices and any escalation in geopolitical tensions,' said Sharma.
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's FY25 economic growth hits four-year low of 6.5%, Q4 GDP beats estimates
India's economic growth in FY25 hit a four-year low of 6.5 per cent, slowing down sharply from the 9.2 per cent growth recorded in FY24. However, Q4 GDP growth beat estimates after accelerating to 7.4 per cent but it couldn't save the economy from posting its slowest growth since Covid-era. Nonetheless, New Delhi's key officials have backed India's growth potential and vouched that the country will retain its title as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The full-year growth remained within official projections, as private investment remained subdued amid global uncertainties. In the quarter ending March 31, 2025, India's growth stood at 7.4 per cent, on the back of robust industrial activity and sustained global trade tensions grew larger by day. The third quarter had seen growth rise to 6.2 per cent, revised upward from an earlier estimate of 5.6 per cent, showing resilience amid global headwinds. Live Events The fourth quarter was marred by global trade disruptions led by Trump's tariffs and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the Indian economy powered through the storm on the back of pick up rural demand and healthy government spending. Moreover, the latest growth figures continue to keep New Delhi in the race of fastest economies in the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects India's economic size to surpass Japan's by the end of the year, reaching $4.18 trillion. A notable divergence between GDP and gross value added (GVA) was expected with the latter stripping out taxes and subsidies for a clearer picture of underlying economic activity. The GVA stood at 6.4 per cent. JP Morgan, for instance, estimated March quarter GDP growth at 7.5%, but GVA growth at a more modest 6.7%. Some analysts said that the higher-than-expected GDP print might be a reflection of a fall in government subsidies, which could inflate the headline number without reflecting equivalent real economic momentum. Despite the external challenges, the Indian economy remains relatively healthy due to its limited reliance on global goods trade, recent tax cuts, controlled inflation and a potentially softer interest rate environment. 'While external uncertainties—such as supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility—pose challenges, India continues to benefit from strong service sector performance, a stable banking system, and improving manufacturing output under schemes like PLI,' said Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuations and Ratings Ltd. In February 2025, the RBI had, for the first time in five years, cut the repo rate by 25 bps, a move expected to aid India's growth blitz. Retail inflation dropped to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April, and a favourable monsoon forecast is expected to help stabilize food prices—factors that could allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider a rate cut in June. Looking ahead, the RBI has projected 6.5% growth for the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2025. 'On the inflation front, CPI is expected to moderate from 4.9% in FY25 to 4.3% in FY26, aided by easing food prices, prudent monetary policy, and a normal monsoon forecast. However, inflationary risks persist because of global commodity prices and any escalation in geopolitical tensions,' said Sharma.
India Today
3 days ago
- Business
- India Today
India GDP data to be released today: What should investors expect?
India's latest GDP numbers for the January–March quarter (Q4 FY25) and the full year 2024–25 will be released on Friday by the Ministry of Statistics. This data will give a clear picture of how the economy has performed in the past year, especially in the final this year, the National Statistical Office had estimated that India's economy would grow by 6.5% in 2024–25, with an expected growth of 7.6% in the March Reserve Bank of India, too, had projected a 6.5% growth rate for the full year during its April Monetary Policy Committee TO EXPECT FROM INDIA'S GDP DATA?According to a report from the State Bank of India, the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2024–25, with the March quarter showing growth between 6.4% and 6.5%. The report noted that India has stayed 'largely resilient' despite a weaker global economy and rising global tensions. It added that the country has managed to handle changing conditions a credit rating agency, believes that Q4 growth will be around 6.9%, while CareEdge expects it to be 6.8%. ICICI Bank and Union Bank of India have both projected a growth rate of 7% for the March quarter.A Reuters report, based on a poll of economists, suggested that India's GDP likely grew by 6.7% year-on-year in the March quarter. This would be higher than the 6.2% growth seen in the previous report stated that higher rural demand and more government spending helped the economy during the period. However, it also said that private companies were slow in making new investments because of global Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuations and Ratings Ltd, said that the Indian economy continues to show strength.'India's economic trajectory remains resilient despite global headwinds and regional geopolitical tensions,' he said. He added that growth of 6.4% in FY25 and 6.5% in FY26 is being driven by strong domestic demand, steady government spending on infrastructure, and a slow but steady increase in private investment. He also pointed to a strong banking system, solid performance from the services sector, and improvements in manufacturing under the PLI scheme as positive release of the GDP figures comes just after India became the fourth-largest economy in the world, overtaking Japan. Only the United States, China, and Germany are now ahead of India. "Steadily improving macros like resilient GDP growth, down trending inflation and interest rates and declining fiscal and current account deficits lay the foundation for a strong economy and earnings recovery in the medium term. Investors should remain invested and buy quality stocks on dips," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)Must Watch
