Latest news with #MartyFreeman
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Old Dominion Unveils Weak LTL Unit Performance for May 2025
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) has provided an update on the performance of its less-than-truckload (LTL) segment, which is its primary revenue generator, in May. Old Dominion's revenue per day fell 5.8% year over year in May 2025, owing to an 8.4% decrease in LTL tons per day, which was partially offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The reduction in LTL tons per day was owing to a 6.8% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.9% decrease in LTL weight per shipment. Quarter to date, Old Dominion's LTL revenue per hundredweight and LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, increased 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively, year over year. Marty Freeman, president and chief executive officer at Old Dominion, stated, 'Our revenue results for May reflect continued softness in the domestic economy as well as the impact of lower fuel prices on our yields. We believe that our market share has remained relatively consistent throughout this extended period of economic softness, despite the year-over-year decrease in our LTL volumes. Customers have continued to value our industry-leading service, which supports our ongoing yield management initiatives. While the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, we will continue to focus on executing on our long-term strategic plan. Our service metrics and value proposition remain best in class, which we believe puts us in a unique position to win profitable market share and increase shareholder value over the long term.' ODFL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Shares of ODFL have plunged 19.7% over the past six months compared with the 25.9% decline of the transportation-truck industry. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Investors interested in the Transportation sector may also consider Copa Holdings CPA and SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW). CPA currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. CPA has an expected earnings growth rate of 14.3% for the current year. The company has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 5.5%. Shares of CPA have risen 24.2% year to date. SkyWest, founded in 1972, is based in St. George and operates regional jets for major U.S. airlines. SKYW is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines, SkyWest Charter and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company. SKYW currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy). SKYW has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters. The average beat was 17.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current and next-year earnings has been revised upward over the past 60 days. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) : Free Stock Analysis Report Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) : Free Stock Analysis Report SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Old Dominion's May update in line with prior Q2 guide
Less-than-truckload carrier Old Dominion Freight Line saw 'continued softness' in May as revenue per day fell 5.8% year over year. Lower volumes were again only partially offset by higher yields. The trend is a continuation from what was experienced in April and during the first quarter. Old Dominion (NASDAQ: ODFL) reported an 8.4% y/y decline in tonnage per day during May as shipments fell 6.8% and weight per shipment was down 1.9%. The carrier's April tonnage was off 8.8%, which followed a 6.3% decline in the first quarter. The monthly tonnage declines continue to moderate on a two-year-stacked comparison. May tonnage was down 6.9% (down 6.5% in April), which is an improvement from the low-double-digit declines recorded last year and into the first quarter. A prolonged freight downturn and a sagging industrial sector have weighed on LTL demand. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) – a bellwether for manufacturing activity – remained slightly in contraction territory during May at 48.5. The index has been underwater in 29 of the past 31 months. The PMI dataset typically leads inflections in LTL volumes by approximately three months. The PMI new orders subindex – a proxy for future near-term activity – improved slightly but remained in decline at 47.6. The new export orders subindex continued to see the overhang of tariffs, falling into 'extreme contraction' at 40.1. The LTL industry continues to capture rate increases despite the demand malaise. Old Dominion said revenue per hundredweight, or yield, was up 3.2% y/y for the first two months of the second quarter (5.6% higher excluding fuel surcharges). The dip in average shipment weight modestly benefited the metric. Retail diesel fuel prices were off 8.5% y/y in May following an 11% decline in April. A sliding fuel surcharge scale makes higher diesel prices incrementally more accretive to LTL carrier margins but presents a headwind when fuel prices are falling. 'We believe that our market share has remained relatively consistent throughout this extended period of economic softness, despite the year-over-year decrease in our LTL volumes,' Old Dominion President and CEO Marty Freeman said in a Wednesday news release. 'Customers have continued to value our industry-leading service, which supports our ongoing yield management initiatives.' The company previously guided to second-quarter revenue of approximately $1.4 billion (a 7% y/y decline, or a 5% decline on a per-day basis) assuming April's volume and yield trends held throughout the quarter. That outlook included a 5% to 5.5% increase in yield (excluding fuel), which is in line with the actual result seen during the two months. A second-quarter operating ratio forecast calls for only 100 basis points of sequential improvement from the first quarter versus the normal change rate of 300 to 350 bps of improvement. That guide implies a 74.4% OR, which would be 250 bps worse y/y. The company normally sees an 8% step up in revenue sequentially in the second quarter but is only seeing a 3% increase so far this year. 'While the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, we will continue to focus on executing on our long-term strategic plan,' Freeman added. 'Our service metrics and value proposition remain best in class, which we believe puts us in a unique position to win profitable market share and increase shareholder value over the long term.' Shares of ODFL were off 1.1% in early trading on Wednesday compared to the S&P 500, which was up 0.3%. More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden: Transportation pricing grows faster than capacity again in May Yellow Corp. to sell 4 terminals for $6.8M Proxy adviser backs activist's move to reshape Forward Air board The post Old Dominion's May update in line with prior Q2 guide appeared first on FreightWaves.


Associated Press
6 days ago
- Business
- Associated Press
Old Dominion Freight Line Provides Update for Second Quarter 2025
THOMASVILLE, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jun 4, 2025-- Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (Nasdaq: ODFL) today reported certain less-than-truckload ('LTL') operating metrics for May 2025. Revenue per day decreased 5.8% as compared to May 2024 due to an 8.4% decrease in LTL tons per day that was partially offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The decrease in LTL tons per day was attributable to a 6.8% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.9% decrease in LTL weight per shipment. For the quarter-to-date period, LTL revenue per hundredweight and LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, increased 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively, as compared to the same period last year. Marty Freeman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Old Dominion, commented, 'Our revenue results for May reflect continued softness in the domestic economy as well as the impact of lower fuel prices on our yields. We believe that our market share has remained relatively consistent throughout this extended period of economic softness, despite the year-over-year decrease in our LTL volumes. Customers have continued to value our industry-leading service, which supports our ongoing yield management initiatives. While the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, we will continue to focus on executing on our long-term strategic plan. Our service metrics and value proposition remain best in class, which we believe puts us in a unique position to win profitable market share and increase shareholder value over the long term.' Forward-looking statements in this news release are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We caution the reader that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to be materially different from those expressed or implied herein, including, but not limited to, the following: (1) the challenges associated with executing our growth strategy, and developing, marketing and consistently delivering high-quality services that meet customer expectations; (2) changes in our relationships with significant customers; (3) our exposure to claims related to cargo loss and damage, property damage, personal injury, workers' compensation and healthcare, increased self-insured retention or deductible levels or premiums for excess coverage, and claims in excess of insured coverage levels; (4) reductions in the available supply or increases in the cost of equipment and parts; (5) various economic factors such as inflationary pressures or downturns in the domestic economy, and our inability to sufficiently increase our customer rates to offset the increase in our costs; (6) higher costs for or limited availability of suitable real estate; (7) the availability and cost of third-party transportation used to supplement our workforce and equipment needs; (8) fluctuations in the availability and price of diesel fuel and our ability to collect fuel surcharges, as well as the effectiveness of those fuel surcharges in mitigating the impact of fluctuating prices for diesel fuel and other petroleum-based products; (9) seasonal trends in the less-than-truckload ('LTL') industry, harsh weather conditions and disasters; (10) the availability and cost of capital for our significant ongoing cash requirements; (11) decreases in demand for, and the value of, used equipment; (12) our ability to successfully consummate and integrate acquisitions; (13) various risks arising from our international business relationships; (14) the costs and potential adverse impact of compliance with anti-terrorism measures on our business; (15) the competitive environment with respect to our industry, including pricing pressures; (16) our customers' and suppliers' businesses may be impacted by various economic factors such as recessions, inflation, downturns in the economy, global uncertainty and instability, changes in international trade policies, changes in U.S. social, political, and regulatory conditions or a disruption of financial markets; (17) the negative impact of any unionization, or the passage of legislation or regulations that could facilitate unionization, of our employees; (18) increases in the cost of employee compensation and benefit packages used to address general labor market challenges and to attract or retain qualified employees, including drivers and maintenance technicians; (19) our ability to retain our key employees and continue to effectively execute our succession plan; (20) potential costs and liabilities associated with cyber incidents and other risks with respect to our information technology systems or those of our third-party service providers, including system failure, security breach, disruption by malware or ransomware or other damage; (21) the failure to adapt to new technologies implemented by our competitors in the LTL and transportation industry, which could negatively affect our ability to compete; (22) the failure to keep pace with developments in technology, any disruption to our technology infrastructure, or failures of essential services upon which our technology platforms rely, which could cause us to incur costs or result in a loss of business; (23) disruption in the operational and technical services (including software as a service) provided to us by third parties, which could result in operational delays and/or increased costs; (24) the Compliance, Safety, Accountability initiative of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration ('FMCSA'), which could adversely impact our ability to hire qualified drivers, meet our growth projections and maintain our customer relationships; (25) the costs and potential adverse impact of compliance with, or violations of, current and future rules issued by the Department of Transportation, the FMCSA and other regulatory agencies; (26) the costs and potential liabilities related to compliance with, or violations of, existing or future governmental laws and regulations, including environmental laws; (27) the effects of legal, regulatory or market responses to climate change concerns; (28) emissions-control and fuel efficiency regulations that could substantially increase operating expenses; (29) expectations relating to evolving environmental, social and governance considerations and related reporting obligations; (30) the increase in costs associated with healthcare and other mandated benefits; (31) the costs and potential liabilities related to legal proceedings and claims, governmental inquiries, notices and investigations; (32) the impact of changes in tax laws, rates, guidance and interpretations; (33) the concentration of our stock ownership with the Congdon family; (34) the ability or the failure to declare future cash dividends; (35) fluctuations in the amount and frequency of our stock repurchases; (36) volatility in the market value of our common stock; (37) the impact of certain provisions in our articles of incorporation, bylaws, and Virginia law that could discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of us or a change in our management; and (38) other risks and uncertainties described in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Our forward-looking statements are based upon our beliefs and assumptions using information available at the time the statements are made. We caution the reader not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements as (i) these statements are neither a prediction nor a guarantee of future events or circumstances and (ii) the assumptions, beliefs, expectations and projections about future events may differ materially from actual results. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement to reflect developments occurring after the statement is made, except as otherwise required by law. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is one of the largest North American LTL motor carriers and provides regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. The Company also maintains strategic alliances with other carriers to provide LTL services throughout North America. In addition to its core LTL services, the Company offers a range of value-added services including container drayage, truckload brokerage and supply chain consulting. View source version on CONTACT: Adam N. Satterfield Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (336) 822-5721 KEYWORD: NORTH CAROLINA UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY KEYWORD: TRUCKING RAIL TRANSPORT LOGISTICS/SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOURCE: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Copyright Business Wire 2025. PUB: 06/04/2025 07:30 AM/DISC: 06/04/2025 07:29 AM


Business Wire
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Wire
Old Dominion Freight Line Provides Update for Second Quarter 2025
THOMASVILLE, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (Nasdaq: ODFL) today reported certain less-than-truckload ('LTL') operating metrics for May 2025. Revenue per day decreased 5.8% as compared to May 2024 due to an 8.4% decrease in LTL tons per day that was partially offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The decrease in LTL tons per day was attributable to a 6.8% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.9% decrease in LTL weight per shipment. For the quarter-to-date period, LTL revenue per hundredweight and LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, increased 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively, as compared to the same period last year. Marty Freeman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Old Dominion, commented, 'Our revenue results for May reflect continued softness in the domestic economy as well as the impact of lower fuel prices on our yields. We believe that our market share has remained relatively consistent throughout this extended period of economic softness, despite the year-over-year decrease in our LTL volumes. Customers have continued to value our industry-leading service, which supports our ongoing yield management initiatives. While the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, we will continue to focus on executing on our long-term strategic plan. Our service metrics and value proposition remain best in class, which we believe puts us in a unique position to win profitable market share and increase shareholder value over the long term.' Forward-looking statements in this news release are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We caution the reader that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to be materially different from those expressed or implied herein, including, but not limited to, the following: (1) the challenges associated with executing our growth strategy, and developing, marketing and consistently delivering high-quality services that meet customer expectations; (2) changes in our relationships with significant customers; (3) our exposure to claims related to cargo loss and damage, property damage, personal injury, workers' compensation and healthcare, increased self-insured retention or deductible levels or premiums for excess coverage, and claims in excess of insured coverage levels; (4) reductions in the available supply or increases in the cost of equipment and parts; (5) various economic factors such as inflationary pressures or downturns in the domestic economy, and our inability to sufficiently increase our customer rates to offset the increase in our costs; (6) higher costs for or limited availability of suitable real estate; (7) the availability and cost of third-party transportation used to supplement our workforce and equipment needs; (8) fluctuations in the availability and price of diesel fuel and our ability to collect fuel surcharges, as well as the effectiveness of those fuel surcharges in mitigating the impact of fluctuating prices for diesel fuel and other petroleum-based products; (9) seasonal trends in the less-than-truckload ('LTL') industry, harsh weather conditions and disasters; (10) the availability and cost of capital for our significant ongoing cash requirements; (11) decreases in demand for, and the value of, used equipment; (12) our ability to successfully consummate and integrate acquisitions; (13) various risks arising from our international business relationships; (14) the costs and potential adverse impact of compliance with anti-terrorism measures on our business; (15) the competitive environment with respect to our industry, including pricing pressures; (16) our customers' and suppliers' businesses may be impacted by various economic factors such as recessions, inflation, downturns in the economy, global uncertainty and instability, changes in international trade policies, changes in U.S. social, political, and regulatory conditions or a disruption of financial markets; (17) the negative impact of any unionization, or the passage of legislation or regulations that could facilitate unionization, of our employees; (18) increases in the cost of employee compensation and benefit packages used to address general labor market challenges and to attract or retain qualified employees, including drivers and maintenance technicians; (19) our ability to retain our key employees and continue to effectively execute our succession plan; (20) potential costs and liabilities associated with cyber incidents and other risks with respect to our information technology systems or those of our third-party service providers, including system failure, security breach, disruption by malware or ransomware or other damage; (21) the failure to adapt to new technologies implemented by our competitors in the LTL and transportation industry, which could negatively affect our ability to compete; (22) the failure to keep pace with developments in technology, any disruption to our technology infrastructure, or failures of essential services upon which our technology platforms rely, which could cause us to incur costs or result in a loss of business; (23) disruption in the operational and technical services (including software as a service) provided to us by third parties, which could result in operational delays and/or increased costs; (24) the Compliance, Safety, Accountability initiative of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration ('FMCSA'), which could adversely impact our ability to hire qualified drivers, meet our growth projections and maintain our customer relationships; (25) the costs and potential adverse impact of compliance with, or violations of, current and future rules issued by the Department of Transportation, the FMCSA and other regulatory agencies; (26) the costs and potential liabilities related to compliance with, or violations of, existing or future governmental laws and regulations, including environmental laws; (27) the effects of legal, regulatory or market responses to climate change concerns; (28) emissions-control and fuel efficiency regulations that could substantially increase operating expenses; (29) expectations relating to evolving environmental, social and governance considerations and related reporting obligations; (30) the increase in costs associated with healthcare and other mandated benefits; (31) the costs and potential liabilities related to legal proceedings and claims, governmental inquiries, notices and investigations; (32) the impact of changes in tax laws, rates, guidance and interpretations; (33) the concentration of our stock ownership with the Congdon family; (34) the ability or the failure to declare future cash dividends; (35) fluctuations in the amount and frequency of our stock repurchases; (36) volatility in the market value of our common stock; (37) the impact of certain provisions in our articles of incorporation, bylaws, and Virginia law that could discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of us or a change in our management; and (38) other risks and uncertainties described in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Our forward-looking statements are based upon our beliefs and assumptions using information available at the time the statements are made. We caution the reader not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements as (i) these statements are neither a prediction nor a guarantee of future events or circumstances and (ii) the assumptions, beliefs, expectations and projections about future events may differ materially from actual results. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement to reflect developments occurring after the statement is made, except as otherwise required by law. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is one of the largest North American LTL motor carriers and provides regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. The Company also maintains strategic alliances with other carriers to provide LTL services throughout North America. In addition to its core LTL services, the Company offers a range of value-added services including container drayage, truckload brokerage and supply chain consulting.
Yahoo
24-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ODFL Q1 Earnings Call: Management Focuses on Cost Discipline Amid Freight Demand Uncertainty
Freight carrier Old Dominion (NASDAQ:ODFL) met Wall Street's revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, but sales fell by 5.8% year on year to $1.37 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.19 per share was 4.3% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy ODFL? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $1.37 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.37 billion (5.8% year-on-year decline, in line) Adjusted EPS: $1.19 vs analyst estimates of $1.14 (4.3% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $427.2 million vs analyst estimates of $412 million (31.1% margin, 3.7% beat) Operating Margin: 24.6%, down from 26.5% in the same quarter last year Free Cash Flow Margin: 17.8%, down from 21% in the same quarter last year Sales Volumes fell 6.5% year on year (-0.5% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $32.57 billion Old Dominion's first quarter results were shaped by persistent softness in freight volumes and ongoing macroeconomic challenges. Management attributed the year-on-year revenue decline primarily to lower shipment counts, stating that 'our revenue and earnings per diluted share both declined as a result' of weaker domestic economic activity. However, they emphasized operational discipline, highlighting improvements in productivity such as higher shipments per hour and continued best-in-class service metrics. Looking ahead, management signaled a cautious outlook, citing ongoing uncertainty in the economic environment and freight demand. CEO Marty Freeman noted, 'while there are still several workdays that remain in April, our month-to-date revenue per day has decreased 7% on a year-over-year basis.' The company is reducing capital expenditures for the remainder of the year and focusing on cost controls, while maintaining investments in network capacity to capture market share when volumes recover. Management reiterated that clarity around tariffs and regulations could be key to a sustained rebound in demand. Old Dominion's leadership outlined the main themes influencing first quarter performance and set the stage for their strategy moving forward. The focus remained on balancing yield management with operating density and managing costs in a soft demand environment. Freight Volume Decline: Management stressed that lower less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments per day, driven by weak industrial and retail demand, was the central factor impacting revenue. Despite the decline, market share remained stable. Yield Management Discipline: The company maintained a cost-based approach to pricing, achieving increases in revenue per hundredweight even as volumes fell. CFO Adam Satterfield said, 'we're fully committed to our long-term yield management strategy.' Operating Efficiency Investments: Old Dominion improved productivity metrics such as shipments per hour, despite reduced network density. Management cited ongoing investments in automation, technology, and training as key to these gains. Network and Capacity Expansion: The company continued to expand its service center network and fleet capacity over recent years, positioning itself for growth when demand returns. Management noted that over 30% excess capacity remains in its real estate network, with recent reductions in planned capital expenditures to align with current demand. Industry Capacity Constraints: Executives highlighted that industry-wide reductions in service centers, particularly after the exit of Yellow, have created a more capacity-constrained LTL market. This dynamic could support pricing power and market share gains as freight demand recovers. Management's outlook for the coming quarters centers on cautious optimism, with a focus on operational discipline and readiness to capture market share if freight volumes recover. The main themes shaping guidance are ongoing economic uncertainty, continued cost controls, and strategic capacity investments. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Management cited ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs, manufacturing investment, and customer confidence as key factors limiting a near-term recovery in freight volumes. Cost Management Focus: The company is reducing capital spending and discretionary expenses in response to lower freight activity, with a $125 million cut to 2025 capital expenditures. This should help protect margins until volume growth resumes. Positioning for Growth: Despite near-term headwinds, Old Dominion continues to invest in its network and workforce, aiming to capture outsized share gains when the freight market improves. Management highlighted that 'our network is built for more shipments per day than what we're handling right now.' Jordan Alliger (Goldman Sachs): Asked about typical margin seasonality and the impact of prolonged industry softness on margins; management explained that if revenue remains flat, only modest operating margin improvement is expected next quarter. Ravi Shanker (Morgan Stanley): Questioned the rationale behind capital expenditure reductions; CFO Adam Satterfield clarified that project deferrals are due to economic uncertainty, not a change in long-term strategy. Tom Wadewitz (UBS): Inquired about retail exposure and potential competitive threats from Amazon and UPS; management said retail is about 25-30% of business and does not see Amazon's LTL offering as a material threat. Scott Group (Wolfe Research): Probed on pricing power and whether Old Dominion can continue achieving price increases; management maintained that its value proposition allows for ongoing yield improvement even in a competitive environment. Bascome Majors (Susquehanna): Asked about changes in the competitive landscape and industry capacity following Yellow's exit; management emphasized that industry-wide capacity is down, with Old Dominion well positioned due to ongoing network investments. In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will watch (1) for signs of stabilization or improvement in LTL shipment volumes, (2) whether cost control initiatives and lower capital spending can help protect operating margins, and (3) continued progress in expanding network capacity for future growth. The interplay between macroeconomic clarity—especially regarding tariffs and manufacturing investment—and management's disciplined execution will be critical signposts for assessing business momentum. Old Dominion Freight Line currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28.1×. In the wake of earnings, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our free research report. The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump's presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025. 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