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India Today
3 days ago
- Business
- India Today
US doubles steel, aluminium tariff: Is it a big worry for India?
The United States has increased import tariffs on steel and aluminium, doubling them from 25% to 50%. The move, which took effect on June 4, is aimed at supporting American steelmakers and the local manufacturing sector. However, the decision could affect global trade and may have indirect effects on India's steel tariff hike does not apply to all countries. The United Kingdom has been excluded because of a trade agreement already in place with the US. The announcement came after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick submitted an updated report on the condition of the steel and aluminium sectors in the country.'I doubled the rates after receiving new information about the sector from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick,' US President Donald Trump the direct impact on India might seem limited, experts warn there could still be consequences due to changes in global supply chains and to CA Jashan Arora, Director at Master Trust Group, 'The direct impact is limited since India exports only a small share of its steel to the US. However, Indian companies with US operations may be slightly cushioned if they produce locally.'Still, there are concerns that the new tariffs could lead to a trade diversion, with countries like China looking to sell more steel in other markets, including India. Arora added, 'Yes, that's a major risk. With the US market less accessible, China may divert its surplus steel to other countries, including India. This could flood the market with cheap steel, pulling down prices and cutting into profit margins for Indian producers. India's 12% safeguard duty may not be enough to prevent this pressure.'To deal with such risks, India has already taken some steps. A 12% safeguard duty on certain steel imports was introduced in April 2025. This was aimed at stopping the redirection of steel originally meant for the US into VP Singh, Programme Director for Economics at Great Lakes Institute of Management, Gurgaon, explained that this policy is already showing results. 'Steel supply glut in India is very unlikely. The Indian government has taken preemptive steps to prevent trade diversion. As a result, steel imports in April 2025 fell by 11.3% compared to the same month last year. Due to this lower supply, steel prices have generally gone up. Leading manufacturers raised prices by around Rs 2,000 per tonne.'Still, Singh warns that rising domestic steel prices could hurt Indian consumers. 'With the safeguard duty in place, domestic firms are making higher profits. There is now talk of increasing the duty to 24%. But who will protect the consumers?' he annual demand for finished steel stands at around 136 million tonnes, while production is about 102 million tonnes. According to Singh, the trade diversion could also offer some benefits. 'The extra supply of cheaper steel might actually help India, without harming local companies too much,' he also said that US steel prices will rise in the short term due to the tariff hike, but added, 'Trump is more focused on bilateral trade. We may soon see new trade deals between the US and other steel-supplying countries. After the initial increase, steel prices in the US are likely to become stable.'In the longer term, India has plans to become a major centre for steel manufacturing and exports. But Singh believes this goal cannot be reached if Indian steel companies keep asking for import protection. 'To achieve that dream, Indian steel producers need to stop asking for protection from imports,' he justified the tariff increase by asserting it would 'further secure the steel industry' in the US, suggesting that at 50%, foreign competitors would find it challenging to India is not a major exporter to the US, Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy acknowledged some effects, and said, 'Minor impact will be there...A minor problem is there because we are not exporting in a big way.' Kumaraswamy highlighted that consignments already en route to the US, arriving post June 4, may incur the new 50% tariff, potentially causing disruption.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)advertisement
Mint
25-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Week Ahead: Q4 Results, F&O expiry, GDP data, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market experienced heightened volatility and settled on a sombre note last week, largely due to the turbulence in the global bond markets and foreign outflows. US tariffs escalated global trade tensions. Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the coming week. The last set of March quarter earnings for fiscal 2024-25 (Q4FY25), domestic macroeconomic data, scheduled monthly expiry of May derivatives contracts, foreign fund flows, and global cues will dictate the market trend in the week. India's capital market closed the week on a subdued note, with domestic equity benchmarks Nifty and Sensex declining nearly 0.7 per cent each, settling at 24,853 and 81,721, respectively. In contrast, the Bank Nifty index edged up by 43 points, buoyed by positive sentiments in banking indices. 'Despite the downturn, the Nifty 50 continues to trade above its key moving averages, including the 21-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating underlying strength,' said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. Rising US Treasury yields dampened investor sentiment, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.63 per cent, its highest since February. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking, mixed corporate earnings and delays in finalising the India-US trade agreement added to the uncertainty, prompting profit-booking and a guarded stance among market participants. "Expectations of a normal monsoon, which is favourable for agricultural productivity, combined with declining crude oil prices, are likely to keep inflationary pressures subdued," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. "A softer inflation outlook provides greater flexibility to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, potentially paving the way for interest rate cuts to support economic growth. Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching the upcoming Indian GDP figures, along with the US." This week, the primary market will witness more action, with several new initial public offerings (IPO) and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, along with corporate earnings. The release of India's industrial and manufacturing production data for April, scheduled for May 28, along with the FY25 and Q4FY25 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures, on May 30, will offer insights into the economic recovery trajectory. Updates on the progress of the monsoon will also be closely monitored. The final leg of the Q4 earnings season—with results from key companies like Bajaj Auto, Aurobindo Pharma, and IRCTC—will remain in focus. Investors will closely track the management commentary and sectoral trends. Four new mainboard public issues will open for subscription in the coming week: the Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO, Leela Hotels IPO (Schloss Bangalore Ltd), Prostarm Info Systems IPO, and Scoda Tubes IPO. Additionally, five new SME IPOs will also be open for bidding in the next five days. Check full list here The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold ₹ 11,591 crore, while DIIs bought ₹ 11,199 crore during the week. Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) flows in India have seen significant outflows in recent quarters, dragged by weak corporate earnings, election uncertainties, and a slowdown in urban consumption. These domestic concerns were compounded by global headwinds, including fears of a slowdown due to potential policy changes, such as tariffs from the Trump administration, which impacted global currencies, bond markets, and delayed decision-making by large global corporations. However, history suggests that periods of intense FPI sell-offs are followed by strong rebounds. Early signs of renewed interest have emerged in recent weeks, indicating potential optimism. India's position as one of the fastest-growing major economies remains a key attraction for global investors. "While short-term uncertainties may persist due to global developments, the long-term outlook for FPI flows into India remains positive—especially if corporate earnings align with current market valuations, enhancing investor confidence and justifying sustained capital inflows," said Saurabh Patwa, Head of Research and Portfolio Manager, Quest Investment Advisors. On the global front, rising US bond yields and concerns over the US's debt burden triggered foreign portfolio outflows, putting pressure on emerging markets, including India. Speculation around favourable developments in the US-China trade deal raised concerns about potential capital outflows or reduced inflows into Indian markets, further denting sentiment. Volatility may rise amid the expected announcement of a new US tax policy, which could impact global investment flows in the long run. On the global front, developments in the US bond market, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, and progress in the India-US trade negotiations will continue to influence market sentiment. Analysts say that possible progress in the India-US trade deal and comments from US Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also shape market sentiment. On Monday, May 26, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech, offering insights into the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Market participants will look for signals on future rate decisions, especially with potential shifts under Trump's policies and economic uncertainties. On Wednesday, May 28, the FOMC minutes from the May 6–7, 2025, meeting will be released. The minutes will detail the US Federal Reserve's discussions on the current 4.25–4.50 per cent federal rate and provide key insights into the US Fed's outlook on interest rates, inflation, and the economy. The US GDP growth rate (second estimate, Q1 2025) is set to be released on Thursday, May 29. Meanwhile, the US Initial Jobless claims data will also be released on Thursday, a key indicator of US labour market health. Shares of Bajaj Finance, ITC, Angel One, L&T Finance, Tata Consumer Products, Lloyds Metals and Energy, Infosys, Colgate Palmolive (India), and several others will trade ex-dividend next week, starting from Monday, May 26. Shares of some stocks will also trade ex-bonus. Check full list here Technically, Nifty 50 is undergoing a consolidation phase, with immediate support around 24,500, near its short-term moving average. On the upside, a decisive breakout above 25,200 could reignite bullish momentum and pave the way toward the 25,600 level. Read full technical analysis here Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
Mint
11-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Week Ahead: Q4 results, India-Pak tensions, inflation data, global cues among key triggers for Indian stock market
The Indian stock market snapped its three-week winning streak, its longest this year, after experiencing a sharp correction amid escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, following a period of consolidation. Next, investors will monitor some key market triggers in the coming week. The next set of March quarter earnings for fiscal 2024-25 (Q4FY25), domestic macroeconomic data, retail inflation, India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions, foreign capital inflows, and global cues will dictate the market trend in the week. Domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 dropped 1.4 per cent last week, coming under pressure after the border conflict fueled stock market volatility and triggered a shift towards a risk-off sentiment. The Nifty 50 fell 1.1 per cent on Friday but closed above the psychologically key 24,000-point mark, while the BSE Sensex also lost 1.1 per cent but ended below the 80,000 level. The volatility index, or the 'fear gauge', rose for an eighth straight session to hit a more-than-one-month high. On the week, the Sensex declined by 1,047 points to settle at 79,454, while the Nifty 50 index slipped 338 points to close at 24,008—both registering a weekly loss of approximately 1.4 per cent. The Indian armed forces on Wednesday had carried out precise missile strikes on nine terror targets in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Pakistan under 'Operation Sindoor'. "Initially, market sentiment was buoyed by optimism over the India-UK Free Trade Agreement and stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings from select index heavyweights. However, gains were later pared as escalating military tensions weighed heavily on the market mood," said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. "The consensus anticipates a potential softening in inflationary pressures. Geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain a point of concern in the near term. Despite its unfolding nature and the unexpected escalation, the market expects the issue to wrap up shortly based on the economic and military strength of India," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd. This week, the primary market will witness more action, with some new initial public offerings (IPO) and listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The week will be critical from the domestic and technical points of view. Investors will track domestic macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, along with corporate earnings. On the macroeconomic front, investors will closely monitor the release of key data points, including the consumer price index (CPI), wholesale price index (WPI), and trade figures for exports and imports. The corporate earnings season will gather pace, with several major companies, such as PVR INOX, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, GAIL, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, Lupin, Godrej Industries, and BHEL, scheduled to announce their quarterly results. No new mainboard issues are scheduled to open for subscription so far this week. In the SME segment, two new issues will open for bidding. Among listings, two SMEs will get listed on either BSE SME or NSE SME. On the flows front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) maintained their buying streak, infusing nearly ₹ 5,087 crore into the cash segment, while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) added nearly ₹ 10,450 crore. FPI flows to date in May were positive for key emerging markets (except Indonesia). India, Brazil, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam witnessed outflows of $1,371, $360 million, $148 million, $35 million, $361 million, $3,343 milion, $32 million, and $52 millio, respectively. On the global front, market analysts noted that the latest US Federal Reserve policy meeting offered limited reassurance to investors. US Fed policymakers voiced concerns that heightened tariffs could exacerbate the inflationary pressures and potentially lead to higher unemployment. Despite this cautious tone, the Indian and global market sentiment slightly improved last week following some encouraging signals from both the US and China regarding a potential resumption of trade negotiations. 'Optimism surrounding a prospective US–UK trade agreement helped sustain momentum across global markets. Meanwhile, a rate cut by the People's Bank of China contributed to a broadly positive tone, reinforcing investor confidence across the region,' said Vinod Nair of Geojit. The current geopolitical developments, particularly the tensions with Pakistan, will continue to dominate the week ahead. Investors will also keenly watch movements in crude oil prices and the US dollar index. 'Rising tensions between India and Pakistan are likely to dominate investor sentiment in the coming week, creating a cautious undertone in Indian equity markets. Any escalation along the border or strong diplomatic developments could lead to uncertainty,' said Puneet Singhania of Master Trust Group. Technically, Nifty 50 is currently hovering around key moving averages, suggesting the potential for further downside. A decisive break could extend the decline toward 23,200. Read full technical analysis here Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts, consider individual risk tolerance, and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary.
Time of India
01-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Sensex rises nearly 4% in April on FII inflows, monsoon hopes, and trade optimism
AI-generated image The BSE Sensex gave significant returns, increasing nearly 4 per cent in April, despite geopolitical tensions. The upturn was driven by renewed foreign investment inflows , forecasts of above-normal monsoon rainfall, and positive prospects of an India-US trade agreement . Additionally, stock valuations became more attractive following recent market corrections, leading to increased buying activity. The BSE Sensex benchmark rose by 2,827.32 points (3.65 per cent), while the NSE Nifty climbed 814.85 points (3.46 per cent) during the month. During April, the total market capitalisation expanded by Rs 10.37 lakh crore, reaching Rs 4,23,24,763.25 crore (approximately $4.98 trillion). This marked the second straight month of gains for the benchmark indices. In March, the Sensex surged 4,216.82 points (5.76 per cent), while the Nifty advanced 1,394.65 points (6.30 per cent). The rally was supported by easing tariff concerns, progress on India-US trade discussions, and a turnaround in foreign institutional investor (FII) activity. "The Indian stock market's resilience and sharp rally in April, despite global concerns and tensions with Pakistan, could be attributed to several supporting factors. The market correction over the past few months helped ease valuations, previously a key concern for investors, thereby reviving buying activity," said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. He added that the US announcement of a temporary pause on tariffs and signs of renewed trade negotiations contributed to the relief rally. 'After prolonged selling, FIIs turned net buyers of Indian equities in April,' he noted. The Reserve Bank of India also played a role in lifting sentiment. On April 9, the RBI cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent—its second consecutive reduction—and shifted its policy stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative.' The Monetary Policy Committee's decision was unanimous, aimed at supporting growth amid global uncertainty. The US had implemented comprehensive reciprocal tariffs on April 2, including a 10 per cent baseline duty and 25 per cent levies on steel, aluminium, and auto components. However, a 90-day suspension of broader tariffs (excluding China and Hong Kong) until July 9 helped ease investor anxiety. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said: 'The surprising resilience of the market is significant. After the reciprocal tariff tantrums and heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, the Nifty ended April in the green. This underscores the importance of not panicking during a crisis.' Looking ahead, analysts say the sustainability of the current rally will depend on Q4 corporate earnings and global cues, especially from the US markets, which influence sentiment across emerging markets like India. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit, added: 'Momentum is being capped by rising tensions between India and Pakistan and muted Q4 results. This negative bias may persist in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive given the minimal financial impact from the conflict.' Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Economic Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Markets record 2nd straight monthly gain in April; Sensex jumps nearly 4 pc
The BSE Sensex jumped nearly 4 per cent last month showing resilience amid recent geopolitical concerns, as return of foreign investors to the domestic market, prediction of an above-normal rainfall in the upcoming southwest monsoon and optimism surrounding a potential India-US trade deal boosted sentiment. Moreover, easing valuations of stocks after correction in the market in the past few months also revived the buying activity, experts said. ADVERTISEMENT The 30-share BSE benchmark gauge Sensex jumped 2,827.32 points or 3.65 per cent last month, while the NSE Nifty surged 814.85 points or 3.46 per cent. In entire April, investors' wealth rallied by Rs 10.37 lakh crore to Rs 4,23,24,763.25 crore (USD 4.98 trillion). This is the second straight monthly gain for the market benchmarks. In March, the Sensex surged 4,216.82 points or 5.76 per cent, and the Nifty climbed 1,394.65 points or 6.30 per cent. Markets performed well last month, driven by reduced tariff risks, a potential US-India trade deal, and strong FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) inflows, an expert said. "The Indian stock market's resilience and sharp rally in April, despite global concerns and tensions with Pakistan, could be attributed to several supporting factors. The market correction over the past few months helped ease valuations, previously a key concern for investors, thereby reviving buying activity. ADVERTISEMENT "Additionally, the announcement of temporary pause on tariffs by the US along with possible trade negotiations with countries also led to the relief rally. Also, after a prolonged selling by foreign investors, it is being seen that FIIs have turned net buyers of Indian equities in April," Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said. Finally, the Reserve Bank's 25 basis point rate cut on April 9 lowering the repo rate to 6 per cent and its shift in policy stance from "neutral" to "accommodative" bolstered the market sentiment, Singhania said. ADVERTISEMENT On April 9, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut interest rates for a second consecutive time. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), consisting of three central bank members and an equal number of external members, voted unanimously to cut the repurchase or repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent. ADVERTISEMENT RBI changed its policy stance to "accommodative" from "neutral". "The surprising resilience of the market is significant. After the reciprocal tariff tantrums and the heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, Nifty is up in April. This underscores the importance of not panicking during a crisis," V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said. ADVERTISEMENT The US announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on several countries, including India, on April 2. Later, a 90-day suspension of these tariffs until July 9 this year, except for those on China and Hong Kong, was announced. However, the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed on the countries on April 2 remains in effect, besides the 25 per cent duties on steel, aluminium, and auto components. "The sustainability of the existing market rally in May will largely be determined by ongoing Q4 earnings by firms. Given the influence of the US equity markets globally, investors will also keep an eye on the US market developments as it could have a material effect on emerging markets like India," Singhania noted. Further, market participants would keep an eye on the Indian government's stance regarding Pakistan as they could lead to volatility in the market, he said. In the past one week, markets have faced volatile trends. "Momentum is being capped by rising tensions between India and Pakistan and muted Q4 results. This negative bias is expected to persist in the near term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the minimal financial impact from the conflict," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said.
