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6 days ago
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Chile's Right Has Pole Position in the Race to Replace Boric
Six months out from Chile's presidential election scheduled for Nov. 16, the field is crowded. But one thing seems likely: The nation of 20 million will pivot sharply to the right, after six years in which the progressive idealism represented by President Gabriel Boric and his leftist Broad Front, or FA, party has held sway. Leading the pack to replace Boric, who rode the progressive wave to power in 2022 but can't run for re-election due to a constitutional bar on consecutive terms, are three figures from the traditional and radical right. According to a May 16 survey by polling firm Cadem, 17 percent of voters would like to see Evelyn Matthei of the Independent Democratic Union, or UDI, become Chile's next leader, down from a recent high of 26 percent in December. A 71-year-old economist who until recently served as district mayor of Providencia in the heart of Santiago, the capital, Matthei has traditionally cut a technocratic, moderate figure. Matthei's father was a top general during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, and she herself campaigned in support of Pinochet remaining in power in the 1990 referendum that ended his 17-year rule, while also backing efforts for him to avoid prosecution for the crimes committed in that time. But she is supportive of gay marriage and abortion, and as a presidential candidate in 2013 compared her policies to those of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In December, Matthei called for 'less ideology, more pragmatism' in Chilean politics, and has promised to cut government waste and corporate taxes in order to restore annual GDP growth to 4 percent, a rate it last averaged between 1991 and 2005. Yet with half of those surveyed by Cadem saying crime is the main reason holding back growth, ultraconservatives have sought to outflank Matthei's center-right Chile Vamos coalition on public safety and illegal immigration. In response, Matthei has taken to filming campaign spots in the Atacama, the arid northern region through which most migrants cross, while announcing a plan to deploy soldiers and drones to the border, repatriate both illegal migrants and 3,000 convicted foreign nationals, and construct a maximum-security jail in the middle of the desert. To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter. 'I'm not going to allow us to lose Chile,' she said in unveiling the plan last month. 'We're going to be very tough, very drastic, very radical.' She has also indicated that she would consider following the lead of U.S. President Donald Trump by sending convicts from organized crime groups like Venezuela's Tren de Aragua to be imprisoned in El Salvador. And in March, following a high-profile double murder, she suggested that the death penalty, which has been outlawed in Chile since 2001, 'should be applied in some cases.' However, Matthei's hardened tone may not be enough to stop the return of Jose Antonio Kast, the 59-year-old far-right leader who lost to Boric in the 2021 presidential contest. In last week's poll, Kast finished with 17 percent support, up from 8 percent in February. A long-serving UDI congressman for the south side of Santiago, Kast is the son of a Nazi emigre to Chile, and his late brother served as a minister under Pinochet, whose regime Kast has also defended. He even went so far as to say that if the dictator were still alive, he would vote for him. After leaving Congress in 2018, Kast broke with the UDI and founded his populist Republican Party the following year. He has styled himself after former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and made law and order the central component of his three presidential runs to date. But unlike Matthei, Kast combines this with a strident defense of 'family values' and an anti-system message. 'Chile is on the edge of the abyss,' he told supporters in January, blaming 'a political class that has systematically failed to protect Chileans,' while implying that Matthei belonged to 'the same old crowd.' Responding to the latest polling, Kast says he sees a 'growing possibility' of a first-round victory in November. That seems unlikely because the conservative vote will be split, and not only between him and Matthei. Axel Kaiser, a 49-year-old outsider congressman who came to prominence on YouTube condemning Boric's first ill-fated effort to rewrite Chile's Pinochet-era constitution in 2022, is also in the running. Kaiser, who left Kast's movement to found his own National Libertarian Party in 2024, also demands mass deportations of migrants. Modeling himself after the inflammatory style of Argentine President Javier Milei, he lambasts the political 'caste,' has said he would shut down public hospitals if elected and has also questioned whether women securing the right to vote 'was a good idea.' Support for Kaiser has slipped in recent weeks, from a high of 15 percent in April to just 6 percent in May, with Kast seemingly eating into his and Matthei's vote. The three will not hold an opposition primary to present a unified candidate, instead opting to test their strength on polling day in November. In the likely event of no candidate winning more than 50 percent of the vote, the second- and third-placed figures on the right are likely to fall in behind either Kast—as in 2021, when he lost to Boric—or Matthei, positioning them for a second-round victory on Dec. 14. Chile's left, by contrast, will hold a primary open to all voters on June 29 to decide who will take up the standard from Boric. The sitting president has notched up a series of incremental social reforms: raising the minimum wage, increasing pension payouts, capping the working week at 40 hours, reviving parts of Chile's passenger rail network and passing legislation to tackle sexual harassment and support people with autism. But these have been overshadowed by the failure of the constitutional reform process he championed and high levels of violent crime, as well as a handful of damaging blunders. These include Boric's delay in removing a trusted Interior Ministry official accused of sexual abuse and a rolling, multimillion-dollar cronyism and campaign-finance scandal involving NGOs with close ties to his administration. Fresh revelations involving the latter saw the president's disapproval rating spike to 70 percent in May, a peak registered only twice before since he took office in March 2022. As a result, the left seems demoralized and disorganized. Its best-placed candidate is Carolina Toha, a 60-year-old who recently stepped down as Boric's interior minister to run for the presidency. A political scientist, former congresswoman, ex-mayor of Santiago and senior figure in the center-left administration of former President Michelle Bachelet from 2009 to 2012, Toha is seen as a steady and pragmatic hand. Addressing her fellow members of the Party for Democracy, or PPD, in April, she spoke of the need to build a 'modern, efficient' and pro-growth progressive movement, and to fight the 'planetary phenomenon' of anti-democratic, authoritarian populism, which she said 'has its imitators in Chile.' But just 10 percent of those polled last week say they will vote for Toha, suggesting she is tarnished by her association with Boric. The same is likely true of Congressman Gonzalo Winter, a former student leader and the reluctant presidential candidate for the Broad Front, who took just 6 percent. Jeannette Jara of the Communist Party, who served as Boric's labor minister, notched 5 percent. Two prominent progressives who may have gained more traction—Bachelet, 73, and the Communist Party's Camila Vallejo, 37—have ruled out running. With little enthusiasm to carry on Boric's project even among its leading lights, the momentum is clearly with Chile's insurgent conservative forces. Matthei and Kast also have the backing of the country's corporate press and most of the private sector, and seem buoyed by a regional rightward wave that seems likely to break over Peru, Brazil and Colombia in 2026. Yet centrist and left-wing sympathies may coalesce around the figure of Toha once the primary, with its state funding and TV coverage, is concluded. She can also take comfort from the failed constitutional reform process that played out in 2022 and 2023. After the failed referendum on an initial ultra-progressive draft championed by Boric, far-right factions led by Kast's Republican Party triumphed in a May 2023 election that seated a second constitutional convention. But when those delegates produced a correspondingly ultraconservative document, the public soundly rejected that one as well. It's a hint that, after years of tumult following the explosion of nationwide anti-inequality protests in 2019 and the subsequent hardships of the pandemic, a significant constituency of centrist voters are simply searching for safe harbor from the extremes. That may be enough to stave off the challenge from Kast and Kaiser. But assuming she is not pulled too far rightward in the meantime and barring any unforeseen developments, Matthei—with her promise of a hardline but socially tolerant conservatism—still enjoys the pole position. Laurence Blair is a freelance journalist covering South America and the author of 'Patria,' an alternative history of the continent to be published in November 2024. You can follow him on Twitter at @laurieablair. The post Chile's Right Has Pole Position in the Race to Replace Boric appeared first on World Politics Review.
Yahoo
18-03-2025
- Business
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Chile Center-Right Presidential Contender Wants Business Tax Cut
(Bloomberg) -- Chile's center-right presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei said she wants to slash the country's corporate tax rate to 18% from 27% as her campaign seeks to hold onto its front-runner status in this year's election. ICE Eyes Massive California Tent Facility Amid Space Constraints How Britain's Most Bike-Friendly New Town Got Built The Dark Prophet of Car-Clogged Cities Washington, DC, Region Braces for 'Devastating' Cuts from Congress NYC Plans for Flood Protection Without Federal Funds 'We are convinced that the corporate tax rate in Chile should not exceed 18%,' Matthei said at an event in Santiago on Tuesday. 'Reaching that rate, within a 10-year period, will require a complex plan of tax cuts tied to growth targets, spending and revenue efficiency, and, of course, a supportive Congress.' Matthei is under pressure as her early lead in polls diminishes and the campaign for Chile's presidency intensifies. A survey published by Cadem on Sunday showed 17% of respondents supporting the former senator and minister for head of state, down from 26% in December. During the same period, hard-right contender Johannes Kaiser saw his support levels nearly triple. Matthei said current business tax levels are one of the reasons why economic growth has stagnated around 2%, thus failing to create enough new jobs. The presidential hopeful also emphasized the need for tax invariability for both Chilean and foreign capital in large investment projects. Matthei spoke at the economy-focused event the same day that central bank reported Chile's gross domestic product expanded 2.6% last year. While that expansion is far better than the revised figure of 0.5% in 2023, it's below rates near 6% seen at the start of the last decade. Earlier this month, Matthei unveiled her campaign priorities, including a pledge to double economic growth. Her plan calls for eliminating red tape and encouraging construction while cutting poorly-executed spending. Matthei reiterated those plans at the Tuesday event, stressing that security concerns are the reason why investors have chosen not to plow more money into the South American nation. The first-round presidential vote will be on Nov. 16 and a run-off, if needed, would take place on Dec. 14. Local laws forbid consecutive terms for any head of state, meaning current President Gabriel Boric won't be able to seek reelection. Tesla's Gamble on MAGA Customers Won't Work The Real Reason Trump Is Pushing 'Buy American' Snap CEO Evan Spiegel Bets Meta Can't Copy High-Tech Glasses Nvidia Looks Past DeepSeek and Tariffs for AI's Next Chapter How Trump's 'No Tax on Tips' Could Backfire for the Working Class ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
10-03-2025
- Politics
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Chilean Center-Left Presidential Hopeful Carolina Toha Gains in Polls
(Bloomberg) -- Chilean center-left presidential hopeful Carolina Toha rose in two polls conducted immediately after her formal announcement last week that she'll compete in this year's election. NJ College to Merge With State School After Financial Stress Trump Administration Plans to Eliminate Dozens of Housing Offices Where New York City's Zoning Reform Will Add Housing Buffalo's Billion-Dollar Freeway Fix Is on Ice, But Not Because of Trump Inside the 'Not Architecture' of High Line Designers Diller Scofidio + Renfro Toha was backed for head of state by 12% of voters, up from 3% in February, according to a poll by Panel Ciudadano UDD. She trailed center-right candidate Evelyn Matthei, who garnered 25%, and hard-right contenders Johannes Kaiser and Jose Antonio Kast, who obtained 16% and 13%, respectively. Meanwhile, a separate survey by Cadem showed Toha with 10% of voter intentions, up from 3% in February. That poll showed Matthei leading with 18%, followed by Kaiser with 13% and Kast with 11%. Matthei would win a hypothetical run-off against all three, according to Cadem. Toha is a lifelong politician who served as interior minister until March 4, and she's viewed by many as the center-left's strongest candidate in the upcoming contest. Going forward, Toha will undoubtedly seek to lure supporters of former President Michelle Bachelet, a progressive who said last week that she won't seek a third term. Still, Toha has faced a backlash from Chileans who are concerned about crime and also worries about her appeal with voters. The first-round vote will be on Nov. 16 and a run-off, if needed, would take place on Dec. 14. Local laws forbid consecutive terms for any head of state, meaning current President Gabriel Boric won't be able to seek reelection. The Panel Ciudadano UDD poll surveyed 1,084 people March 5-6. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The Cadem poll surveyed 702 people March 5-7. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. (Updates story with Cadem poll starting in third paragraph) An All-American Finance Empire Drew Billions—and a Regulator's Attention The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World's Most Popular Vapes Greenland Voters Weigh Their Election's Most Important Issue: Trump Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
07-03-2025
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Chile Presidential Candidate Evelyn Matthei Unveils Campaign Blueprint
(Bloomberg) -- Chilean center-right presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei pledged to crack down on crime and illegal immigration, while doubling economic growth, as she unveiled campaign priorities ahead of the November election. Trump Administration Plans to Eliminate Dozens of Housing Offices NJ College to Merge With State School After Financial Stress Republican Mayor Braces for Tariffs: 'We Didn't Budget for This' How Upzoning in Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold NYC's Finances Are Sinking With Gauge Falling to 11-Year Low Speaking before hundreds of people in a packed theater Thursday night, Matthei said that, if elected president, she will use satellites, helicopters and cameras to monitor Chile's borders, expel thousands of foreigners who committed crimes and build five new jails. The former government minister, mayor and senator is trying to capture the zeitgeist of the moment as Chile braces for a renewed influx of foreigners, after President Donald Trump clamped down on immigration into the US. There are at least 320,000 undocumented immigrants in Chile, a country of about 20 million that has seen a surge in murders in recent years associated with foreign organized-crime groups such as Tren de Aragua. 'Illegal immigration is serious,' Matthei said. 'In the prison of Arica, 60% of inmates are foreigners. So, respecting the institutional frameworks, we will take measures that ensure the control of our borders.' In an ambitious election program, Matthei also promised to double the pace of economic growth by cutting down on red tape and encouraging construction. At the same time, her administration would reduce waiting lists for medical procedures, increase access to daycare and strengthen public eduction. 'We won't cut social programs that are well-evaluated,' Matthei said. 'But, we will be very demanding and tough when it comes to superfluous or poorly-executed spending. We need a state with more muscle and less fat.' Leading Polls The remarks give both investors and voters greater insight into the vision of a front-runner in this year's presidential election. Matthei has led in the polls, backed by Chileans who are fed up with problems including organized crime and drug-trafficking. Still, her campaign has been tested by the lack of unity among conservative contenders, with hard-right candidates Johannes Kaiser and Jose Antonio Kast forging ahead with their own campaigns for head of state. At the event, Matthei introduced some of her top advisors. Speakers included Cecilia Cifuentes, a professor at Universidad de Los Andes who detailed plans to spur investments, as well as campaign director Juan Luis Ossa. Their remarks often circled back to the idea that there would be no room for improvisation in public policies and spending. To that point, Matthei vowed to reduce government expenditures by 1% of gross domestic product. Her collaborators include many people who worked under former center-right President Sebastian Pinera, such as Paula Daza, who helped guide Chile through the pandemic as health ministry undersecretary; Ignacio Briones, who was finance minister and Alejandro Weber, who was finance ministry undersecretary. The Left Matthei's campaign announcements capped a busy week for Chilean politics. On Tuesday, Carolina Toha stepped down from her post as interior minister and said she will compete for the presidency for the center-left. The next day, the influential ex-President Michelle Bachelet ruled out a third run for the nation's top job. Previously, Bachelet beat Matthei in the 2013 election to secure her second term as head of state. A Pulso Ciudadano survey published on Sunday showed Matthei leading the race for head of state with support from 24.3% of voters, followed by Bachelet with 15.9%. Hard-right contenders Kast and Kaiser garnered 10.6% and 9.7%, respectively. Toha polled just 1.9%. Critics point out that Matthei's support in polls has remained relatively steady, sparking fears her campaign may be stagnating. She has also come under fire in recent weeks after the center-right parties that back her negotiated a pension reform with current President Gabriel Boric's leftist government. The first-round vote will be on Nov. 16 and a run-off, if needed, would take place on Dec. 14. Local laws forbid consecutive terms for any head of state, meaning that Boric will not be able to seek reelection. Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods An All-American Finance Empire Drew Billions—and a Regulator's Attention The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World's Most Popular Vapes Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? Greenland Voters Weigh Their Election's Most Important Issue: Trump ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
07-03-2025
- Politics
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Chile's Hard-Right Presidential Hopeful Ties With Frontrunner
(Bloomberg) -- Chilean hard-right presidential contender Johannes Kaiser is now tied with Evelyn Matthei, who is widely considered the frontrunner, according to a new poll that marks a shock development in this year's contest. Trump Administration Plans to Eliminate Dozens of Housing Offices NJ College to Merge With State School After Financial Stress Republican Mayor Braces for Tariffs: 'We Didn't Budget for This' How Upzoning in Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold NYC's Finances Are Sinking With Gauge Falling to 11-Year Low Matthei was backed by 17% of respondents while Kaiser garnered 16.9% of support, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News and published Friday. The poll, which was conducted before former head of state Michelle Bachelet closed the door to another presidential run on March 5, placed the center-left leader in third with 14.5%. Kaiser is a self-described libertarian and lower house deputy who is capturing Chile's attention due to his unexpected strength in polls. Long viewed as a fringe candidate, he has called for reducing taxes and red tape, and his tough-on-crime stance includes bringing back the death penalty. Kaiser's rise comes as voters cite public security, crime and drug trafficking as top problems currently gripping one of Latin America's richest economies. 'Kaiser represents a genuine right-wing candidate who is capable of even defending Pinochet,' Mauricio Morales, a political science professor at Universidad de Talca, said in reference to the bloody dictatorshoip led by Augusto Pinochet between 1973 and 1990. 'For a right-wing voter, Kaiser represents truth, renewal and hope.' This year, Kaiser slammed traditional conservative parties aligned with Matthei after they negotiated a pension reform with President Gabriel Boric's left-wing government. He is piquing voters' interest as appeal fades in another hard-right contender, Jose Antonio Kast, who lost to Boric in the 2021 runoff. On Thursday, the Chilean government electoral body Servel officially recognized Kaiser's new political party, called the National Libertarian Party. The survey also had some good news for Carolina Toha, who stepped down as interior minister on March 4 and said she will run for president for the center-left. Forty-one percent of respondents view her favorably, well above Matthei, Kaiser and Kast with 32%, 32% and 29%, respectively. Still, Toha — a political heavyweight whose previous roles include lower house deputy and mayor — was backed for president by only 8% of poll respondents. She continues to be perceived as a second choice, as left-wing voters prefer Bachelet while centrists opt for Matthei, Morales said. This week, Bachelet said she will 'enthusiastically support' whoever the center-left selects to represent the sector in this year's election. Good politics require new generations to step up, and others should now seek the nation's top job, said Bachelet, who was head of state between 2006 and 2010 and again between 2014 and 2018. 'It will not be so easy for Toha to absorb Bachelet's support, at least in an initial phase,' Morales said. The first-round vote will be on Nov. 16 and a run-off, if needed, would take place on Dec. 14. Local laws forbid consecutive terms for any head of state, meaning that Boric will not be able to seek reelection. AtlasIntel surveyed 2,181 people in Chile between Feb. 24-27. The poll has a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. --With assistance from Valentina Fuentes. Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods An All-American Finance Empire Drew Billions—and a Regulator's Attention The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World's Most Popular Vapes Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost? Greenland Voters Weigh Their Election's Most Important Issue: Trump ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
