Latest news with #MayankBhardwaj
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-No imports needed: India's wheat harvest defies market speculation
By Rajendra Jadhav and Mayank Bhardwaj INDORE, India (Reuters) - A strong wheat harvest in India is rapidly replenishing stocks, meaning the country will be able to meet domestic demand without imports this year, contrary to market talk that it would need overseas supplies, and a potential drag on global prices. India banned exports of the staple in 2022 and extended the prohibition as extreme heat shrivelled crops again in 2023 and 2024, draining reserves, pushing prices to record highs and fuelling speculation it would need imports for the first time since 2017. But things are improving for the world's No.2 wheat producer, with early state inventory purchases signalling that this year's crop is about 4 million tons bigger than last year's, six industry and government officials said. "After barely scraping through without imports in recent years, the country finally seems to be out of the woods and free from the fear of having to import wheat," said Amit Takkar, chief of New Delhi-based farm consultancy Conifer Commodities. The Food Corporation of India, the state stockpiler, has bought 29.7 million metric tons of new-season wheat from domestic farmers - the most in four years - after missing procurement targets for three consecutive years. FCI's total wheat purchases could rise to 32 million-32.5 million tons this year, food minister Pralhad Joshi said earlier this month, adding to the 11.8 million tons in stock at the start of the marketing year on April 1. That stockpile of roughly 44 million tons would significantly exceed FCI's annual requirement of 18.4 million tons to run the world's largest food welfare programme, which provides free grain to nearly 800 million people. FCI's surging wheat stocks are sufficient to dispel the prospect of imports that has kept the global trading community guessing, the six industry and government officials said. With the world's second-largest wheat consumer not needing imports, global prices for the grain are likely to come under pressure, as output remains strong in top exporting countries such as Argentina, Australia and Canada, while import demand from top consumer China has weakened. Global wheat prices have more than halved from the record highs of 2022, sliding earlier this month to their lowest level in nearly five years. IMPORTS AVERTED Better weather, higher-yielding climate-resilient seeds, and adequate soil moisture from last year's plentiful monsoon rains helped improve this year's wheat output in India. A nearly 15% rise in wheat prices over the past year - driven by consecutive poor harvests - also encouraged farmers to switch to wheat. Farmers in the central state of Madhya Pradesh, known for premium wheat that goes into pizzas and pastas, said crop yields were higher this year thanks to a milder March. "The weather was better this year compared to last year," said farmer Sunil Dubey, as he steered his tractor trolley brimming with brown sacks of wheat into the dusty, bustling wholesale market of Indore. Dubey and many other farmers have sold their entire harvest to the FCI this year. FCI's robust stockbuilding means that it can release wheat onto the open market in the event of a domestic price spike. In the fiscal year to March 2024, the FCI released more than 10 million tons of wheat into the open market - a record - to tame rising prices. However, lower inventories prevented it from selling large quantities the following year, and Indian wheat prices jumped to an all-time high in early 2025. The government is now far more confident about domestic wheat supplies and prices. India has no plans to lower or remove the 40% wheat import tax, nor is it considering importing wheat through diplomatic channels, as it had discussed earlier, said a senior government official. "Because of good production and procurement, we have ample quantities in hand," said the official who declined to be named, citing government rules. "There will not be any imports." At the same time, India is not considering allowing exports, the official said, preferring instead to build stocks. The government has forecast this year's output at a record 115.4 million tons, although the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India has pegged production at 109.63 million tons. Both estimates were made before the April harvest. In 2024, India produced 105.85 million tons of wheat, according to the flour millers' body, below the government's 113.29 million tons figure. Trade and industry officials have in recent years said the farm ministry's wheat output estimates are overly optimistic and create market uncertainty. "Despite our conservative estimate, we know that production will be around 4 million tons higher than last year," said Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-No imports needed: India's wheat harvest defies market speculation
By Rajendra Jadhav and Mayank Bhardwaj INDORE, India (Reuters) - A strong wheat harvest in India is rapidly replenishing stocks, meaning the country will be able to meet domestic demand without imports this year, contrary to market talk that it would need overseas supplies, and a potential drag on global prices. India banned exports of the staple in 2022 and extended the prohibition as extreme heat shrivelled crops again in 2023 and 2024, draining reserves, pushing prices to record highs and fuelling speculation it would need imports for the first time since 2017. But things are improving for the world's No.2 wheat producer, with early state inventory purchases signalling that this year's crop is about 4 million tons bigger than last year's, six industry and government officials said. "After barely scraping through without imports in recent years, the country finally seems to be out of the woods and free from the fear of having to import wheat," said Amit Takkar, chief of New Delhi-based farm consultancy Conifer Commodities. The Food Corporation of India, the state stockpiler, has bought 29.7 million metric tons of new-season wheat from domestic farmers - the most in four years - after missing procurement targets for three consecutive years. FCI's total wheat purchases could rise to 32 million-32.5 million tons this year, food minister Pralhad Joshi said earlier this month, adding to the 11.8 million tons in stock at the start of the marketing year on April 1. That stockpile of roughly 44 million tons would significantly exceed FCI's annual requirement of 18.4 million tons to run the world's largest food welfare programme, which provides free grain to nearly 800 million people. FCI's surging wheat stocks are sufficient to dispel the prospect of imports that has kept the global trading community guessing, the six industry and government officials said. With the world's second-largest wheat consumer not needing imports, global prices for the grain are likely to come under pressure, as output remains strong in top exporting countries such as Argentina, Australia and Canada, while import demand from top consumer China has weakened. Global wheat prices have more than halved from the record highs of 2022, sliding earlier this month to their lowest level in nearly five years. IMPORTS AVERTED Better weather, higher-yielding climate-resilient seeds, and adequate soil moisture from last year's plentiful monsoon rains helped improve this year's wheat output in India. A nearly 15% rise in wheat prices over the past year - driven by consecutive poor harvests - also encouraged farmers to switch to wheat. Farmers in the central state of Madhya Pradesh, known for premium wheat that goes into pizzas and pastas, said crop yields were higher this year thanks to a milder March. "The weather was better this year compared to last year," said farmer Sunil Dubey, as he steered his tractor trolley brimming with brown sacks of wheat into the dusty, bustling wholesale market of Indore. Dubey and many other farmers have sold their entire harvest to the FCI this year. FCI's robust stockbuilding means that it can release wheat onto the open market in the event of a domestic price spike. In the fiscal year to March 2024, the FCI released more than 10 million tons of wheat into the open market - a record - to tame rising prices. However, lower inventories prevented it from selling large quantities the following year, and Indian wheat prices jumped to an all-time high in early 2025. The government is now far more confident about domestic wheat supplies and prices. India has no plans to lower or remove the 40% wheat import tax, nor is it considering importing wheat through diplomatic channels, as it had discussed earlier, said a senior government official. "Because of good production and procurement, we have ample quantities in hand," said the official who declined to be named, citing government rules. "There will not be any imports." At the same time, India is not considering allowing exports, the official said, preferring instead to build stocks. The government has forecast this year's output at a record 115.4 million tons, although the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India has pegged production at 109.63 million tons. Both estimates were made before the April harvest. In 2024, India produced 105.85 million tons of wheat, according to the flour millers' body, below the government's 113.29 million tons figure. Trade and industry officials have in recent years said the farm ministry's wheat output estimates are overly optimistic and create market uncertainty. "Despite our conservative estimate, we know that production will be around 4 million tons higher than last year," said Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
India's monsoon rains to arrive early, brightening outlook for crops
By Mayank Bhardwaj NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Monsoon rains are expected to hit India's southern coast on May 27, five days earlier than usual, marking the earliest arrival in at least five years, the weather office said, raising hopes for bumper harvests of crops such as rice, corn, and soybean. The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country's $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and recharge aquifers and reservoirs. Nearly half of India's farmland, without any irrigation cover, depends on the annual June-September rains to grow a number of crops. Forecasts of early and abundant monsoon rains are expected to alleviate concerns about potential risks to food supplies amid the current military conflict between India, the world's most populous nation, and its neighbour Pakistan. Summer rains usually begin to lash the southernmost coasts of Kerala state around June 1 and spread across the whole country by mid-July, triggering the planting of crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27, with a model error of plus/minus four days, the India Meteorological Department said on Saturday. Last year, the monsoon reached the coast of Kerala on May 30, and overall summer rains were the highest since 2020, helping the country recover from a drought of 2023. The India Meteorological Department last month forecast above-average monsoon rains for the second straight year in 2025. The department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. Early monsoon rains will encourage farmers in India, the world's largest rice exporter, to start planting earlier. Reuters reported last week that a bumper crop would limit any rebound in global rice prices this year.
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
India to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025
By Mayank Bhardwaj and Rajendra Jadhav NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India is likely to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025, the government said on Tuesday, raising expectations of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy. The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the rain needed to water crops and recharge reservoirs and aquifers. With nearly half of its farmland without any irrigation, it depends on the June-September rains to grow a number of crops. Good rains will help to bring down food prices, to keep inflation at the central bank's comfort level, and to allow the world's biggest rice exporter to ship more of the staple. The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to reach 105% of the long-term average this year, M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference. The India Meteorological Department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. Above-average rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas over northwest India, northeast India, and southern Peninsular India, where below-average rainfall is likely, Ravichandran said. The El Niño weather phenomenon, which usually leads to below normal monsoon rains, is unlikely to occur during the four-month-long monsoon season, said Ravichandran.
Zawya
09-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
India's wheat procurement begins strong, signalling robust harvest
India has bought 2.08 million metric tons of new-season wheat from domestic farmers since March 15, up 44.4% from last year, government sources said, indicating a robust crop that will help New Delhi shore up its depleted reserves and avoid imports. The government-backed Food Corporation of India (FCI) has primarily purchased early varieties of wheat from the central state of Madhya Pradesh. FCI's wheat procurement period has gotten off to a strong start and is expected to gather steam in the coming weeks as harvests from bread-basket states such as Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh start to trickle into the market. The initial trend of FCI's wheat procurement indicates a strong wheat crop this year, said the sources, who did not wish to be named as they were not authorised to talk to the media. Both harvests and FCI's purchases are expected to be satisfactory this year, they said. "Farmers are getting better prices from the government because Madhya Pradesh is giving them a bonus on top of the minimum support price set by the centre," said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house. India has set a purchase price of 2,425 rupees ($27.98) per 100 kg for wheat bought from farmers. Madhya Pradesh is offering an additional bonus of 175 rupees per 100 kg. Last year, FCI aimed to purchase 30 to 32 million tons, but the state stockpiler procured only 26.6 million tons, indicating a poor harvest. As a result, Indian wheat prices surged to a record high earlier this year. Last month, the government estimated this year's wheat output at a record 115.4 million tons of wheat. "Harvests have just started to arrive and the crop looks quite good in terms of both yields and overall production," said Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India. ($1 = 86.6820 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Mayank Bhardwaj and Rajendra Jadhav;)
