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This is where we would be if SA sustained an economic growth rate of 4.5%
This is where we would be if SA sustained an economic growth rate of 4.5%

The Citizen

time02-06-2025

  • Business
  • The Citizen

This is where we would be if SA sustained an economic growth rate of 4.5%

It is enough to make you weep when you read how much better off South Africa could have been with economic growth of 4.5%. If South Africa had sustained an economic growth rate of 4.5% per year, in line with its emerging market peers, its GDP would have been just under R12 trillion in 2024 instead of the actual R7.5 trillion. Government revenue could also have been around R800 billion higher than it is. Investment strategist at Investec Wealth and Investment International, Osagyefo Mazwai, notes that although South Africa has grown over the last 15 years, averaging economic growth around 1% a year, the population has grown at a higher rate of around 1.3%. He points out that there has been a structural break in South Africa's economic performance compared to the rest of the world, with a stark dislocation in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. 'In essence, people are worse off than they were in 2010, suggesting that economic policy has been ineffectual in addressing poverty, unemployment and inequality. 'On a per capita basis, the rest of the world is 50% richer than the average South African. Growth of 1% will not lead to the envisaged goals of lifting people out of poverty and meaningfully addressing the problems of unemployment and inequality.' This chart compares nominal GDP over the period with what it would have been if the South African economy grew at 4.5% a year to illustrate the point on the opportunity cost of foregone growth in policy formation and execution: ALSO READ: Experts say no way SA can achieve economic growth of 3% this year How does economic growth of R12 trillion sound? Mazwai says if the economy grew at 4.5%, South Africa's nominal GDP would have been just below R12 trillion in 2024, a significant number, especially considering the benefits that could have been derived from a vastly larger GDP. He points out that South Africa's economic growth rates similarly had an effect on government revenue. 'Government revenue in 2024 alone could have been around R800 billion higher, while just a few weeks ago, South Africa faced a budget impasse due to a shortfall in funding, needing to raise R75 billion in the medium term to cover the shortfall. 'That shortfall is insignificant considering how much more could have been raised had the economy grown more in line with emerging market peers. 'The cumulative figure of revenue foregone is scary, at around R5 trillion over the last 15 years. 'That is material, considering the fiscal constraints facing South Africa and demonstrates the need to ensure economic growth to boost the fiscal war chest and further enable the capacity of the state to deliver services.' ALSO READ: IMF's bad news about economic growth for SA, thanks to Trump tariffs What economic growth of 4.5% could have meant Mazwai says these statistics put this into perspective: The R5 trillion lost would be enough to clear almost 90% of South Africa's gross national debt and bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to just below 10%, compared to the currently expected 77% ratio this year. Eskom needs R390 billion over the next decade for transmission lines, a fundamental pillar of creating greater capacity in the energy sector. Electricity is the backbone of any structural improvement, especially considering the government's goals to build domestic manufacturing capacity and create meaningful employment opportunities. The R390 billion would be a drop in the ocean had growth been 4.5% over the last 15 years. Transnet needs R160 billion to upgrade rail and port infrastructure. Our logistics networks are key in connecting the economy across its internal nodes, but also key in building additional capacity to meet the demands of external markets. Again, R160 billion would have been a drop in the ocean had growth been in line with our peers. Eskom has debt of R400 billion. With economic growth at 4.5%, the government could have bailed Eskom out 12 times. Transnet has a debt of R140 billion, and the government could have bailed out Transnet many times, too. Social grants will cost the fiscus around R266 billion this year. With economic growth of 4.5%, these would have been more than affordable and potentially materially higher than what marginalised citizens receive now, also considering that many more people would have been absorbed into the labour market. ALSO READ: Fourth quarter GDP improved but economists say its still not great – here's why With higher economic growth, South Africa would have functioned better Mazwai says these statistics are significant because they show how South Africa could have been in a better position to address the prevailing needs of the state. 'Granted, if the economy was growing at 4.5% the assumption is that Transnet and Eskom and some of the other structural enablers of the economy would have been functioning properly. 'The numbers indicate the potential for vastly greater capacity to invest in the productive elements of the South African economy, such as in infrastructure, education, healthcare and the salaries of teachers, nurses and doctors.' He also notes that business confidence has been unusually correlated with the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the post-pandemic environment, and therefore, SOE reform momentum must be sustained or increased. 'Business confidence is the key leading indicator of economic growth and employment creation. The unemployment rate would be closer to around 20% compared to the current 32.9% had the economy been growing at 4.5%. 'In other words, a third of those presently unemployed, according to the narrow definition of unemployment, would have jobs.' ALSO READ: Absa foresees economic growth of 2.1%, but Trump and budget can disrupt it But there have been some victories so far for the economy However, Mazwai says none of this should detract from some of the victories seen of late, such as: The formation of the government of national unity (GNU) and subsequent political stability and increased policy certainty, although the recent budget impasse showed that these are nonetheless fragile. The increased momentum of Operation Vulindlela in addressing the various structural impediments in the economy. The next steps are critical for addressing water infrastructure and local government inefficiencies. Improvements in the electricity supply and logistics network. Mazwai says there has been some stagnation in the recovery of SOEs, which may be cause for concern, although the worst of SOE performance appears to be behind us. However, he says a reacceleration in trend improvement is important for business confidence to grow. ALSO READ: Economic activity still moving sideways but optimism increases Recovery in PMI could mean higher economic growth 'We recently saw a modest recovery in the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), to a neutral level of 50. There must be a trend improvement in PMIs, which are typically linked to economic outcomes. 'Should PMIs continue to improve, the economy should continue on its path of recovery. This will likely be driven by the continued success of Operation Vulindlela.' Looking at GDP projections, Mazwai says data released so far suggest that while growth was likely weak in the first quarter, a persistent upward trend in PMIs can result in a marked acceleration in growth outcomes. 'PMI improvement will largely be a function of continued improvement in SOE performance. At present, the economy, by our estimates, is tracking at 1.3% for the year, which is well above the 0.6% seen in 2024 and 0.8% in 2023. 'This can then lead to more meaningful employment creation and a trend reversal in GDP per capita from the pattern of decline since 2011.' ALSO READ: World Bank has simple answer to improve South Africa's economic growth What SA can do to keep momentum going to grow He suggests that South Africa follow these steps to keep the momentum going and put South Africa on a firmer growth trajectory:

Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage
Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage

The Star

time23-05-2025

  • Entertainment
  • The Star

Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage

As May celebrates the beauty of African culture and heritage, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai reflects on her enduring commitment to African culture highlighting the profound role it plays in her life and music. With Ancestors Day earlier this month leading the charge, Mazwai tells Saturday Star that embracing her cultural heritage is more than just remembrance; it is a lively revival of the African people's stories, music, and spirit, which is rooted in every aspect of her artistry. "For me, celebrating history means more than remembering the past - it's about reviving the stories, sounds, and spirit of our people. It's about using music and tradition as powerful tools to reconnect with who we are and where we come from," she says. In a collaboration with Castle Milk Stout, the Congress of Traditional Leaders of South Africa (CONTRALESA), and the National House of Traditional and Khoi-San Leaders (NHTKL), Mazwai says they aim for Ancestors Day to achieve official recognition as a National Day of Commemoration in South Africa. The music sensation explains that this initiative, sparked in 2021, seeks to raise awareness about the importance of honouring ancestors nationwide. 'Castle Milk Stout and I have been partners for many years, grounded in a shared commitment to celebrating African culture and heritage. Together, we are amplifying the call to give Ancestor's Day the national recognition it deserves,' she emphasises. With this month, infused with the essence of heritage, she says it is also a reminder of the importance of daily celebration. 'Heritage is a living, breathing thing and should be engaged and celebrated every day. A dedicated month is pivotal, as it helps draw attention to some disappearing cultures and cultural practices. Ancestors are lineage. It is important to have some knowledge of what one's bloodline has endured and survived and what they may have invented. As stated in one of my songs, 'andihambi ndedwa'. The award-winning musician also reflects on her three-decade journey in the music industry, during which time she has had the privilege of working with iconic figures such as Hugh Masekela, Busi Mhlongo, and Miriam Makeba. 'I have been in the industry for 30 years and worked with many of my heroes. People like Hugh Masekela and Busi Mhlongo, who were not only mentors but dear friends. Also great legends like Miriam Makeba. I have been truly blessed.' While discussing her creative intentions, Mazwai elaborates on the distinct desires guiding her recordings versus her live performances. 'The intention of the recording is different from the intention of the live performance. One hopes to create peace and healing while the other hopes to inspire exuberance and a sense of freedom. But all of it hopes to inspire pride and self-worth for the African child.' [email protected] Saturday Star

Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage
Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage

IOL News

time23-05-2025

  • Entertainment
  • IOL News

Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage

As May unfolds, a month that serves as a vibrant ode to African culture, heritage, and ancestral legacies, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai takes centre stage, reflecting on the vital role these elements play in her life and artistry. As May unfolds, a month that serves as a vibrant ode to African culture, heritage, and ancestral legacies, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai takes centre stage, reflecting on the vital role these elements play in her life and artistry. As May celebrates the beauty of African culture and heritage, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai reflects on her enduring commitment to African culture highlighting the profound role it plays in her life and music. With Ancestors Day earlier this month leading the charge, Mazwai tells Saturday Star that embracing her cultural heritage is more than just remembrance; it is a lively revival of the African people's stories, music, and spirit, which is rooted in every aspect of her artistry. "For me, celebrating history means more than remembering the past - it's about reviving the stories, sounds, and spirit of our people. It's about using music and tradition as powerful tools to reconnect with who we are and where we come from," she says. In a collaboration with Castle Milk Stout, the Congress of Traditional Leaders of South Africa (CONTRALESA), and the National House of Traditional and Khoi-San Leaders (NHTKL), Mazwai says they aim for Ancestors Day to achieve official recognition as a National Day of Commemoration in South Africa. The music sensation explains that this initiative, sparked in 2021, seeks to raise awareness about the importance of honouring ancestors nationwide. 'Castle Milk Stout and I have been partners for many years, grounded in a shared commitment to celebrating African culture and heritage. Together, we are amplifying the call to give Ancestor's Day the national recognition it deserves,' she emphasises. With this month, infused with the essence of heritage, she says it is also a reminder of the importance of daily celebration. 'Heritage is a living, breathing thing and should be engaged and celebrated every day. A dedicated month is pivotal, as it helps draw attention to some disappearing cultures and cultural practices. Ancestors are lineage. It is important to have some knowledge of what one's bloodline has endured and survived and what they may have invented. As stated in one of my songs, 'andihambi ndedwa'. The award-winning musician also reflects on her three-decade journey in the music industry, during which time she has had the privilege of working with iconic figures such as Hugh Masekela, Busi Mhlongo, and Miriam Makeba. 'I have been in the industry for 30 years and worked with many of my heroes. People like Hugh Masekela and Busi Mhlongo, who were not only mentors but dear friends. Also great legends like Miriam Makeba. I have been truly blessed.' While discussing her creative intentions, Mazwai elaborates on the distinct desires guiding her recordings versus her live performances. 'The intention of the recording is different from the intention of the live performance. One hopes to create peace and healing while the other hopes to inspire exuberance and a sense of freedom. But all of it hopes to inspire pride and self-worth for the African child.' Saturday Star

Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage
Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage

IOL News

time23-05-2025

  • Entertainment
  • IOL News

Thandiswa Mazwai on the power of music and the celebration of African heritage

As May unfolds, a month that serves as a vibrant ode to African culture, heritage, and ancestral legacies, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai takes centre stage, reflecting on the vital role these elements play in her life and artistry. As May unfolds, a month that serves as a vibrant ode to African culture, heritage, and ancestral legacies, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai takes centre stage, reflecting on the vital role these elements play in her life and artistry. As May celebrates the beauty of African culture and heritage, acclaimed musician Thandiswa Mazwai reflects on her enduring commitment to African culture highlighting the profound role it plays in her life and music. With Ancestors Day earlier this month leading the charge, Mazwai tells Saturday Star that embracing her cultural heritage is more than just remembrance; it is a lively revival of the African people's stories, music, and spirit, which is rooted in every aspect of her artistry. "For me, celebrating history means more than remembering the past - it's about reviving the stories, sounds, and spirit of our people. It's about using music and tradition as powerful tools to reconnect with who we are and where we come from," she says. In a collaboration with Castle Milk Stout, the Congress of Traditional Leaders of South Africa (CONTRALESA), and the National House of Traditional and Khoi-San Leaders (NHTKL), Mazwai says they aim for Ancestors Day to achieve official recognition as a National Day of Commemoration in South Africa. The music sensation explains that this initiative, sparked in 2021, seeks to raise awareness about the importance of honouring ancestors nationwide. 'Castle Milk Stout and I have been partners for many years, grounded in a shared commitment to celebrating African culture and heritage. Together, we are amplifying the call to give Ancestor's Day the national recognition it deserves,' she emphasises. With this month, infused with the essence of heritage, she says it is also a reminder of the importance of daily celebration. 'Heritage is a living, breathing thing and should be engaged and celebrated every day. A dedicated month is pivotal, as it helps draw attention to some disappearing cultures and cultural practices. Ancestors are lineage. It is important to have some knowledge of what one's bloodline has endured and survived and what they may have invented. As stated in one of my songs, 'andihambi ndedwa'. The award-winning musician also reflects on her three-decade journey in the music industry, during which time she has had the privilege of working with iconic figures such as Hugh Masekela, Busi Mhlongo, and Miriam Makeba. 'I have been in the industry for 30 years and worked with many of my heroes. People like Hugh Masekela and Busi Mhlongo, who were not only mentors but dear friends. Also great legends like Miriam Makeba. I have been truly blessed.' While discussing her creative intentions, Mazwai elaborates on the distinct desires guiding her recordings versus her live performances. 'The intention of the recording is different from the intention of the live performance. One hopes to create peace and healing while the other hopes to inspire exuberance and a sense of freedom. But all of it hopes to inspire pride and self-worth for the African child.' Saturday Star

Thandiswa Mazwai Cancels US Tour Due to Visa Delays
Thandiswa Mazwai Cancels US Tour Due to Visa Delays

The Star

time29-04-2025

  • Entertainment
  • The Star

Thandiswa Mazwai Cancels US Tour Due to Visa Delays

South African singer Thandiswa Mazwai has officially announced the cancellation of her much-anticipated US tour, citing unforeseen visa delays as the cause. In a statement shared on her social media platforms, Mazwai informed fans that all scheduled dates for May 2025 have been called off. The statement read: 'Please note all dates scheduled for the US in May 2025 have been cancelled due to visa delays.'The news has come as a disappointment to many of her fans across the United States, who were eagerly awaiting the chance to see the celebrated musician live. Mazwai, known for her powerful blend of traditional South African music with contemporary sounds, had been scheduled to perform in several major cities during her US tour. In her message, Mazwai expressed her regret over the cancellation and reassured fans that she would be working on rescheduling the dates as soon as the visa issues were resolved. She wrote, 'See you soon. We will be working on new days as soon as we get our visas. Big love always.' The heartfelt message ended with a hopeful tone, suggesting that the delays were temporary and that the tour would eventually happen. While Mazwai did not directly comment on the reasons for the visa delays, there has been speculation surrounding the matter. Some have linked the delays to recent tensions between South Africa and the US, particularly in light of political challenges under former President Donald Trump's administration. Trump had previously expressed dissatisfaction with South Africa on several fronts, and while the situation with Mazwai's visa may be unrelated, some believe the broader geopolitical climate could be influencing travel processes for South African citizens. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the visa issues, Mazwai's loyal fans have taken to social media to express their understanding and support. Many have wished her well and eagerly await any updates regarding the rescheduled tour. Mazwai's US tour would have been an important opportunity for the artist to expand her international presence. As one of South Africa's most influential musicians, she is celebrated for her unique sound and her contributions to both the South African music scene and the global stage. For now, fans can only wait patiently for the visas to be sorted out and for a new tour schedule to emerge.

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