Latest news with #McCown
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Despite few tariff impacts to date, SC Ports users fear what might be ahead
The OOCL Iris container ship based in China is the largest vessel to visit the Port of Charleston, able to carry up to 16,828 cargo containers measured in 20 foot increments. (Photo by Matthew Peacock/Provided by S.C. State Ports Authority) CHARLESTON — President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies are roiling global trade, forcing South Carolina businesses and nearly every sector of the state's logistics network to question where they go from here. 'It was like stopping a Ferris Wheel, and you're sitting at the top,' maritime industry analyst Jim Newsome, former president of the S.C. State Ports Authority, said of the frozen future many industries are facing since Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements on April 2. 'Everybody is bracing for the impact,' he said. Unlike their West Coast counterparts, the Port of Charleston has yet to see any major impacts from the Chinese shipping slowdown resulting from Trump's 145% tariffs on that country's imports. That's because transits to West Coast ports are shorter, and those ports typically have a much greater exposure to Chinese goods. Year-over-year cargo levels measured by the equivalent of 20-foot-long containers — or TEUs in maritime jargon — moving through Charleston's terminals have held steady or even increased this spring as retailers and others frontloaded shipments ahead of the tariffs. That's about to change, analysts say, because cargo that takes weeks to arrive along the East Coast will now be hit with the tariffs. By June, ports in Charleston, Savannah and along the East Coast could see noticeable drops in cargo if tariff policies don't change. On average, about half of the freight bound for Charleston's port either originates in or has major stops in China, which reported Friday that April shipments to the U.S. dropped by 21%. Ocean liners in recent weeks have canceled about 17% of the container ships scheduled to travel to East Coast ports because of cargo shortages, according to Copenhagen-based maritime research group Sea-Intelligence. Flexport, a San Francisco-based leader in supply chain management, says at least one weekly container service calling on Charleston has suspended trips altogether through mid-June. Barbara Melvin, president and CEO of the State Ports Authority that owns and operates the Port of Charleston, declined to comment on tariff impacts. But John McCown, a non-resident senior fellow at Arlington, Va.-based Center for Maritime Strategy, has a bleak outlook. 'I'm thinking a 25% overall (drop in cargo) could be conservative if things stay the way they are,' said McCown, author of the John McCown Container Report. 'I suspect the actual numbers will show reduced economic activity across the entire container shipping supply chain that will touch every port,' McCown said. 'In addition, the tariffs will also result in noticeable inflation.' Some cracks are already starting to show. A few trucking fleets at Charleston's port, particularly those that handle Chinese imports, are seeing as much as 30% to 40% slowdowns, according to Rick Todd, president and CEO of the South Carolina Trucking Association. 'General trucking remains in a 'worst ever' freight and rate trough,' he said. 'Combine that with relentless cost increases and we are finding smaller and more marginal fleets dropping like flies.' About three-fourths of cargo at Charleston's port moves by truck. 'The tariff/trade slowdown, with uncertainty, will exacerbate capacity leaving the market,' he said. Todd's counterpart in Georgia said that state is also 'starting to see some ripples' in trucking volumes. 'But I think probably in another two to three weeks those ripples are going to start to turn into waves,' Seth Millican, president and CEO of the Georgia Motor Trucking Association, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Georgia Ports Authority has also seen little impact to date from tariffs, posting record volumes in March. Griff Lynch, the authority's president and CEO, said the port is talking with customers about how to mitigate tariff costs and using Savannah's Garden City Terminal West to store containers and manage supply chain fluctuations. Railroads that serve Charleston's port say it's hard to measure future tariff impacts. 'Tariffs could be a headwind to volumes for the rest of the year,' Ed Elkins, executive vice president and chief commercial officer for Norfolk-Southern, told analysts. The biggest risk is an overall economic slowdown due to tariffs, he added. CSX Corp. CEO Joe Hinrichs said near-term demand is 'pretty strong' but 'the keyword you're hearing from everybody is uncertainty.' About half of all imports to the U.S. are parts needed by manufacturers, including the Palmetto State's $27 billion vehicle industry. Most of that cargo is moved by truck. Volvo Cars this week announced layoffs totaling 5% – roughly 100 people – at its Berkeley County manufacturing campus, citing 'challenging macro conditions' including tariff threats. 'The adjustment is due to changing market conditions and evolving trade policies, including tariffs,' a Volvo spokesperson said. 'Our aim is to build where we sell, and we will continue to balance our ongoing investments in the U.S. with the need to optimize costs and drive greater efficiency in the current environment.' Volvo also plans to add new models to its Lowcountry plant, which currently builds the battery-powered EX90 sport-utility vehicle, to offset tariffs on foreign-made cars. BMW – the state's largest automaker and the nation's top vehicle exporter, primarily through Charleston's port – said this week it has been making a case for tariff relief with White House officials but acknowledged the current status would have a 'notable' impact on its second-quarter earnings. Front-line workers at the port will also take a hit if tariffs lead to less cargo. The International Longshoremen's Association supplies thousands of dockworkers in Charleston, and those workers typically are paid only when there are ships to load and unload. The ILA, which supported Trump's election, has not issued any formal statement on tariffs. And Ken Riley, president of the union's Charleston branch, did not respond to a request for comment. Tariffs that are announced one day and paused or canceled days later are adding confusion to South Carolina's trade outlook. 'Nobody has an accurate crystal ball on the effect of these unprecedented catalysts,' McCown told Freightwaves. Some of the biggest import commodities at Charleston's port are Chinese tariff targets, including toys, apparel, footwear, televisions and other electronics. Combined with a 10% universal tariff on goods from most other countries, U.S. imports are projected to plummet. Analysts disagree on how big the drop will be. The National Retail Federation puts the number at 20%. JP Morgan pegs it at up to 80%. Walmart, which operates a 3 million-square-foot import distribution center in Ridgeville that supplies goods to 850 stores, said it is negotiating prices directly with overseas suppliers to blunt tariff impact. Smaller businesses don't have that luxury. 'It's clear this is going to be a severe problem for small businesses because they don't have the capacity to make bulk purchases or change their supply chains,' said Frank Knapp, president and CEO of the South Carolina Small Business Chamber of Commerce. 'You're going to see businesses shutting down.' Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary and a South Carolina native, is in Switzerland this weekend meeting with Chinese officials to talk trade. Bessent has said he doesn't expect a major breakthrough, telling Fox News: 'My sense is that this will be about de-escalation.' Trump preempted Bessent's talks Friday by posting on his Truth Social account that 80% tariffs on Chinese goods 'sounds right' – the first indication that his stance is softening. But lowering tariffs from 145% to 80% tariffs is still unsustainable and unlikely to move the needle on trade. Newsome, the former port director-turned-president of Jim Newsome 3 consultants, said Trump's tariffs are based on the flawed premise that they will bring manufacturing back to the United States. 'Forget about it,' he said. 'You might be able to bring back some high-value manufacturing with a high potential for automation. But it's never going to be the case that you're going to bring a toy made in China back to the United States.' There's also no way to balance trade with China, he said, because that country 'doesn't have the consumption power we do.' The per-capita U.S. income of $43,289 is more than 7.5 times greater than China's. 'How do you balance that?' he said. 'I think that kind of narrative got us off on the wrong foot.' Newsome said he's hopeful that reality is finally getting through to the president, and he thinks there will be too much pressure from retailers and other businesses for Trump's China policy to persist. Retailers need holiday-shopping goods in their warehouses this summer, and they aren't likely to sit by quietly if tariffs interrupt those shipments. 'The best outcome, the hopeful outcome, would be they have a good discussion (in Switzerland) and agree that things got out of hand a bit,' Newsome said. 'Let's push the tariffs off for 90 days to give some time to negotiate. That gets us past the Christmas shipping season.' McCown agrees there will be intense political pressure to end the Chinese tariff war, but he's skeptical that cooler heads will prevail. 'At all times and even before this nonsensical tariff policy went into effect, strong reasoned advice not to go down this path has been largely ignored,' he said.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Moody's Downgrades US Port Outlook to ‘Negative' on Sinking Cargo Volume
An expected steep decline in U.S. container volumes in the wake of the country's ongoing trade war with China bodes poorly for American ports, according to a top credit rating agency. Moody's knocked down the 2025 outlook for U.S. ports from 'stable' to 'negative' in a Thursday research note due to the anticipated slowdown in trade. More from Sourcing Journal Trump Says US Ships Should Travel Panama, Suez Canals for Free California Ports Brace for Sharp Tariff-Driven Volume, Traffic Drop Revised Port Fees Remain 'Major Headache' for Ocean Alliance The note came out the same day Drewry said it expects global container shipping volume to fall 1 percent because of the trade policies—which would mark only the third year since the maritime consultancy beginning tracking that data in 1979 that volumes would inch downward. Container volumes sank 8.4 percent during the Great Recession in 2009, and 0.9 percent in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the firm. In North America, Drewry predicts a volume decline of 5.5 percent, followed up by a 4.6 percent decline in 2026. Container shipping expert John McCown had a more bearish projection for U.S. cargo embedded within his monthly newsletter, The McCown Report. 'Growth in 2025 will be well off the 2024 pace,' said McCown. 'In fact, if the tariffs and USTR ship fees in place now continue, my view is that it is almost certain there will be a double-digit percent reduction in annual volume for all of 2025, compared with 2024.' When accounting for the existing tariff policies in place across both China and the remaining U.S. trade partners, as well as a potential midyear reduction in the duties, Moody's forecasts U.S. cargo volumes to decline in the 7 percent to 12 percent range. The observations from Drewry's and Moody's, as well as the scenario floated by McCown, follow a bleak outlook for the middle of May out of the biggest port in the U.S. This week, the Port of Los Angeles said it expected a 33 percent dip in year-over-year import volumes for the week of May 4-10. The projections come as many container vessels that would typically be exiting Chinese ports were halted to a standstill as U.S. businesses paused or cancelled shipments due to the hefty tariffs imposed on the country's imports. Tariffs for products exported from China to the U.S. have escalated to 145 percent since the start of April. Drewry assumes that if two-thirds of the current tariffs remain in place, imports from China could fall by 40 percent. Moody's highlighted the concerns American shippers have going into May, when the impacts of the tariffs are expected to kick in further. 'The higher cost of imported goods will reduce import volumes, while uncertainty over tariff policy has impacted business planning and consumer sentiment, increasing the risk for a recession this year,' said David Kamran, associate vice president at Moody's Ratings in a statement. 'With demand for container cargo historically correlated with U.S. real GDP and retail sales, any slowing economic activity will further weaken U.S. trade volumes.' The slowdown in eastbound trans-Pacific cargo has been magnified in recent weeks. Cancellations on this route rose sharply from 22 to 65 between weeks 16 and 19 of this year, according to data from Drewry. 'We could change the outlook to stable if we expect cargo volumes to stop declining and return to low growth,' Moody's said in the note. 'A positive outlook could result if volume growth is on pace to top 3 percent on a sustained basis.' Moody's move comes after multiple analysts downgraded ocean carrier giant Maersk's shares amid the bleak container shipping outlook. Within just over one week's span, Arctic Securities relegated company stock from 'buy' to 'hold' before Fearnley Securities demoted its rating from 'hold' to 'sell.' Despite the collapse in cargo exiting China, and the negative impact it would also have on Maersk and other ocean carriers like China's own Cosco Shipping, trans-Pacific freight rates have largely held up over the past month due to the mass blank sailings. According to Drewry's World Container Index (WCI), a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles costs $2,617, down 2 percent from the week prior, but up 5 percent from $2,487 on March 27. Shanghai-to-New York freight rates declined 3 percent this week to $3,611 per container, but have stayed relatively flat from one month ago, when they were $3,722. While the blank sailings are currently working in minimizing capacity on the route to prevent rates from falling, concerns of overcapacity in the industry could make the stalling temporary, especially if the U.S.-China tensions remain static. 'This is really only a stop-gap solution,' said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry, in a Thursday webinar. 'I think, longer-term, carriers will need to consider a more holistic downsizing of their fleets.' As newbuildings of ships continue to come online, carriers will likely need to start scrapping old ships or even delay or cancel new orders. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Journals
25-04-2025
- Business
- Business Journals
Orlando Magic playoff games highlight Church Street's retail woes
By submitting your information you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and User Agreement . As the Orlando Magic gear up for playoff games, the once-vibrant Church Street corridor now presents a stark contrast to the excitement, with vacant storefronts lining the path to the arena. Story Highlights Church Street in downtown Orlando faces retail decline as NBA Playoffs bring in big crowds. City plans $750 million revitalization downtown, including for Church Street corridor. Prominent property owner acknowledges role for area's current state. When the Orlando Magic host the Boston Celtics in Games 3 and 4 of their opening-round NBA Playoffs series — on April 25 and 27, respectively — north of 18,000 fans will make their way to Kia Center each time. Many will park downtown and approach the arena on foot, with those walking west along Church Street from Orange Avenue likely numbering in the hundreds, if not thousands. GET TO KNOW YOUR CITY Find Local Events Near You Connect with a community of local professionals. Explore All Events They'll be encountering a bleak retail scene. Once the heart of downtown Orlando, the corridor of Church Street between Orange Avenue and the Interstate 4 overpass is now nearly empty at a time when it might otherwise be teeming with activity. Not only are the Magic in the playoffs, but arena co-tenants Orlando Solar Bears are in the East Coast Hockey League Playoffs and soccer teams Orlando City and Orlando Pride — which play nearby at Inter&Co Stadium — are in full swing. Instead, with the recent closings of High-T and 1Up Orlando — at 23 and 25 W. Church St., respectively — the stretch is now bereft of bars and nightlife. This followed a wave of bar closures in the area, as well as the high-profile closures of Hamburger Mary's downtown eatery and sports bar Harry Buffalo at 129 W. Church St. None of these spaces have been backfilled, despite closing as long as two years ago in the case of Harry Buffalo. What remains open along the two-block stretch includes a handful of restaurants at 54 W. Church St.'s Church Street Market development — such Cucina Pizza & Bar, The Bao Spot and Birria1983 — as well as American Ghost Tours, which operates out of the former Harry Buffalo building. Monica McCown, the vice president of the Orlando Hospitality Alliance and founder of consulting firm Make It So Strategies, told Orlando Business Journal the state of the prominent corridor adjacent Kia Center has the potential to give those visiting for the game a negative impression of downtown. "I definitely think it's not a good look." "We were already seeing on the western end, between the train tracks and Garland, that has been empty for years — but now the other half [between the tracks and Orange Avenue] is emptying out, as well," McCown said. "People are coming and they just see a dead, boarded-up downtown." expand Monica McCown, founder, Make It So Strategies. Make It So Strategies That potential for a negative impression is not lost on city of Orlando officials, including David Barilla, executive director of Orlando's Downtown Development Board. Barilla acknowledged to OBJ the area is in a period of transition, adding his message to residents and visitors is to emphasize "what is unfolding for the future of Church Street" — including projects whose construction is imminent. Barilla noted the contract for The Canopy — the urban gathering space the city will build under Interstate 4 through parts of downtown, which touches the Church Street corridor — moved forward this week and construction should start soon. Other upgrades are forthcoming to sidewalks, design and lighting, as well as the potential for activations along the corridor in light of the lack of businesses operating. These physical improvements will be part of a larger project to reimagine this same stretch of Church Street as a "festival street" — a project which is part of a larger DTO Action Plan valued at $750 million. Further west along Church, on the opposite side of Interstate 4, work on the Westcourt mixed-use project looms, as does the relocation of Travel + Leisure into the office building at 501 W. Church St. — giving the corridor a major office tenant. "We are really looking to bring back the excitement, energy [and] the centerpiece role that Church Street has played — not only downtown, but in Central Florida," Barilla said. "For us, it's about helping [visitors to downtown] to at least understand what that vision is and really look forward to hopefully coming back and celebrating in the not-too-distant future with us at another game ... and really be re-introduced to it." Barilla also said the city has constant contact with the property owners along the corridor, particularly Lincoln Property Co. — which owns several buildings on the south side of Church Street, including Cheyenne Saloon — and Craig Mateer, who owns buildings on the north side including the former Harry Buffalo space. expand David Barilla City of Orlando Lincoln's plans for a "super block" — which included the Bumby Arcade food hall and The Edge, a second skyscraper from the developer to rise behind its Church Street assemblage, adjacent its Truist Plaza — appear to have stalled. Mateer's buildings facing Church Street are mostly empty. Executives for Lincoln and Mateer were not immediately available for comment on the matter, but Mateer previously acknowledged to OBJ that the property owners who had yet to bring their vision for the corridor to fruition — and instead have created a holding pattern of sorts — have some culpability. "We're part of the problem," Mateer said then. "I can see that, but by the same token, we have to get it right." Sign up for the Business Journal's free morning and afternoon daily newsletters to receive the latest business news affecting Orlando. Download the free OBJ app for breaking news alerts on your phone.
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Beloit filmmaker shares independent film with her hometown
BELOIT, Wis. (WTVO) — A local filmmaker comes back home to share her work with her community during the 20th anniversary for the Beloit International Film Festival. Mallie McCown created the film 'Dear Luke, Love Me.' MCown said she used real-life experiences as her inspiration. 'I was like, 'you know what? I want to make this movie and nobody's going to make it except me,'' McCown said. 'I'm going to have to be proactive and be my own advocate and make this happen.' McCown said bringing her film back home to show her community was heartwarming. 'This feels really full circle for me,' McCown said. 'I was born and raised in Beloit. Me and my sister and best friend would take our dad's video camera, and we would just take our summers and film movies.' The festival's Operations and Hospitality Manager Sabrina Krejci said the event has grown in popularity over the years. 'We started off 20 years ago as a four-day festival then progressed to a ten-day festival,' Krejci said. 'We have seen the growth more and more throughout the 20 years, and I don't think it's stopping. I think we continue to grow every year from the filmmakers that submit to the people that come because there's new generations. The same people that were involved 20 years ago have now passed on that love of independent film to the community, to their grandchildren or their kids.' Krejci explained how the submission process works. 'Normally we get anywhere between 500-800 films submitted,' Krejci said. 'Our film selection committee and reviewers have to go through every one of those films and watch them. Some get multiple reviews and then we have to narrow it down to 100.' This year's festival has , and McCown said she's thrilled to be a part of it. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
24-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US port charges on China vessels add to supply chain uncertainty
The Trump administration's proposal to assess massive port charges on Chinese-built and -operated cargo vessels is creating more questions than answers for the global maritime industry. The proposal announced Friday by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has its roots in a 2024 investigation that found China leveraged unfair trade practices to dominate the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. The fees include: Up to $1 million per call for a Chinese-operated vessel, based on a rate of $1,000 per net ton of capacity. From $500,000 to $1.5 million per call depending on how many Chinese-built vessels are in an operator's fleet. From $500,000 to $1 million per call for operators with vessels on order at Chinese shipyards. There are also new ocean cargo preference rules which would immediately require 1% of U.S. exports move on U.S.-flagged and -operated ships, then 3% within two years, 5% within five years and 15% within seven years. 'What this does is inject chaos and uncertainty into the container shipping supply chain,' said John McCown, an analyst with the Center for Maritime Strategy. 'It's another form of tariffs, that's all it is, but with a bluntness that makes it even more nonsensical than tariffs.' McCown said the proposal raises a host of complicated questions, such as whether a ship built in a country other than China, but drydocked there for repairs or maintenance, a common practice, runs afoul of the new rules. Or, how the fees will affect a China-linked bulk carrier or tanker that arrives empty to load American grain or crude oil for export. 'It doesn't appear as though the administration has really thought this through,' McCown said. 'What happens to an empty Panamax vessel that arrives to load grain from the Midwest? With the fees, we're suddenly less competitive than Brazil.' 'If the intention is to drastically increase costs for U.S. importers and make U.S. exports uncompetitive, this proposal is likely to do the job,' said consultant Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime, in a LinkedIn post. Short term, there is speculation that carriers and shippers could divert to ports in Mexico and Canada where cargo would then move by rail to the U.S. But that scenario is also less clear-cut. The key western Canada container ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert in 2024 struggled to manage increased volumes, noted intermodal analyst Lawrence Gross, when shippers diverted container shipments away from the East Coast of the United States during longshore labor disruptions and from changes in vessel rotations during the Red Sea crisis. 'They've really suffered because of all the disruptions,' Gross said, 'and their share of inbound TEUs [twenty-foot equivalent units] is depressed right now. So there is some capacity there. The freight that's at risk is 'swing' freight — the divertable freight moving, for example, to the U.S. midwest. There's a variety of routing available such as choice of coast, choice of port region, for stuff that moves intact inland, such as [international] container moves.' He estimated freight that could be diverted comprises a high-single-digit share of all U.S.-bound cargo. But Canada and Mexico may be less attractive as alternative ports if the U.S. goes ahead with previously announced tariffs on imports from those countries. 'If you take a ship with capacity of 14,000 TEU, that breaks down to 7,000 [40-foot] containers, [standard for international shipping], so the port fee will really account for a small percentage of the cost of goods delivered,' Gross said. 'The port fee impact is not something consumers are going to notice amid all the other things that are happening.' McCown agreed, adding that the uncertainty triggered by the port fees likely has logistics planners already looking at diverting container shipments through Mexico and Canada. 'The supply chain works best when it's moving rhythmically,' he said. 'The whole process is incredibly efficient. For ocean lines, it's a 3% run-rate cost compared to the value of what's being shipped.' McCown recalled that it took about six months until the impact of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration were felt in the container supply chain. Ocean lines did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The net effect of the port charges, like tariffs, Gross said, will be a braking effect on the economy. 'This will freeze everything: No investments will be made, no plants can be built, until this situation shakes down. We'll see it in a slowdown of the GDP. With interest rates where they are and inflation rates not changing, the downside risk is rising as we speak.' Public comment is being accepted through March 24, after which President Donald Trump will decide whether to implement the proposal. Find more articles by Stuart Chirls targets China ships, operators with millions of dollars in new port charges Tariff fears help Port of Long Beach containers to best start on record No sure thing? ILA head tells rank and file contract vote an 'obstacle' to overcome While supply chain frets, Port of Los Angeles sees record January volume The post US port charges on China vessels add to supply chain uncertainty appeared first on FreightWaves.
