Latest news with #MeanwhileintheMiddleEast
Egypt Independent
27-03-2025
- Business
- Egypt Independent
As Trump offers new nuclear talks, Iran weighs the cost of losing its final leverage
Editor's Note: A version of this story appears in CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a weekly look inside the region's biggest stories. Sign up here. CNN — Iran is currently mulling over US President Donald Trump's offer for talks on a new nuclear deal. Its answer will hinge on one key factor: Whether it believes that it can come out of it undefeated. Last week, Trump sent Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a rare letter proposing negotiations on a new nuclear deal, with a two-month ultimatum to reach an agreement, a source familiar with the letter's contents told CNN. The communication contained 'more of a threatening posture,' but apparently also offered 'some opportunities' for Iran, the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday, saying a response will come 'in the coming days.' Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, delivered the letter to the president of the United Arab Emirates last week, according to the source, and a UAE official passed it on the Iranians. In an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson over the weekend, Witkoff offered some insight into the letter's contents. 'It roughly said: I'm a president of peace, that's what I want. There's no reason for us to do this militarily. We should talk. We should clear up the misconceptions. We should create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your nuclear material, and I'd like to get to that place, because the alternative is not a very good alternative.' This month, the United States launched strikes on one of the few remaining Iran-allied militias still posing a potent threat to its interests. The attacks on Yemen's Houthi rebels served as a warning shot – a preview of what Iran itself might face if it refuses to cooperate, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz told ABC News. With Iran's economy in freefall, its grip on the region slipping and public anger mounting, US officials may see a perfect opportunity to force Tehran's hand – by tightening the economic noose and making the threat of military action unmistakably clear. But experts warn it won't be that straightforward: Iran is deeply wary of appearing weak, and the last thing it wants is to be seen as capitulating to Trump. 'This is a very fluid moment,' Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN. 'There is scope for miscalculation, there is scope for crisis, scope of a military attack on Iran.' Tehran has in recent weeks repeatedly rejected direct negotiations over a potential nuclear deal with the US, saying it won't come to the table with a gun pointed to its head and fears that Washington will once again renege on its commitments, as it did seven years ago during Trump's first presidential term. In its response to Trump's recent letter, Iran will take into account 'both the threats and the opportunities,' Araghchi said, vowing that it wouldn't negotiate 'under pressure and threats or increased sanctions.' Talks would have to take place 'under equal footing,' he said. For Iran, giving in to Trump's maximalist approach of piling on more sanctions and repeatedly threatening military action equates to surrender, a position it is not willing to entertain, experts said. 'The Iranians are trying to disabuse Trump from the belief that they are so weak that capitulation is actually on the table,' Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington DC-based Quincy Institute, told CNN. 'Do whatever the hell you want' Iranian leaders have dismissed the idea of speaking to Washington, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying this month that Iran 'won't bow in humiliation before anyone.' 'I won't come to negotiate with you. Go do whatever the hell you want,' Pezeshkian was cited as saying by the Tehran Times. It comes after the Trump administration reinstated a maximum pressure campaign on Iran in February, aimed at preventing the Islamic Republic from building a nuclear weapon. According to the memorandum, the US would also 'implement a campaign aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero,' and deny Iran intercontinental ballistic missiles. But analysts say that Trump's efforts to arm-twist the Iranians may not have the desired effect, since yielding to Washington completely is considered as too dangerous a move for Tehran under the current geopolitical climate. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks at an event in Tehran, Iran on March 11. Iranian Presidency/Anadolu/Getty Images From Iran's standpoint 'the risk of capitulation is even more dangerous, and I don't think the Trump administration is fully grasping that,' Parsi said. Since Israel began its war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, Iran and Israel have exchanged two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks, the first time either side has directly attacked the other, as Iran-backed militias across the region launched strikes against Israeli and US interests in protest at the Gaza conflict. With Israel's decapitation campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the war in Gaza against Hamas, the Islamic Republic's influence in the region has weakened significantly. Its nuclear program is now one of its final points of leverage. In December, United Nations nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters that Iran is 'dramatically' accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60 percent purity, closer to the roughly 90 percent level that is weapons grade. In January, Grossi again warned that Iran is 'pressing the gas pedal' on its uranium enrichment. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful. The Zelensky lesson Experts point to a deep-seated mistrust in Washington's reliability as a key factor behind Iran's hesitation to engage with Trump on a new deal. A controversial exchange between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office last month only reinforced that idea for the Islamic Republic. During that exchange, Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian president in front of international media. 'Zelensky was asked to say 'thank you,' admit that Ukraine has 'no cards,' and 'respect' the Americans after he asked for security guarantees,' the Tehran Times wrote, citing Pezeshkian's reasons for refusing to talk to Trump. 'You should be ashamed of yourself after what you did to Zelensky recently,' Iranian media cited Pezeshkian as saying. From Tehran's perspective, if Washington can turn its back on an ally, there's little reason to believe it would keep its commitment to an adversary. As Trump's letter made its way to Iran, Khamenei reiterated his refusal to engage with Washington, reminding the world that this is the same American president who, in 2018, unilaterally withdrew from the landmark nuclear deal brokered with world powers just three years earlier. US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meet in the Oval Office at the White House on February known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the agreement was intended to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions, thereby preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. In a post on X this month, Khamenei said Trump was trying to 'deceive public opinion' by saying Washington is ready to negotiate. 'How could we hold negotiations with (the) US when we know they don't fulfill their commitments?' Khamenei said, adding that 'if the goal of entering negotiations is for the sanctions to be removed, negotiating with this US administration won't result in the sanctions being removed.' Further complicating the potential for new talks between Tehran and Washington are Iran's domestic politics, with anti-US hardliners and pro-talks reformists jostling for power. 'Conservatives see an opportunity at this moment to attack the Pezeshkian administration, to assert themselves domestically but also perhaps in the nuclear dimension,' Vakil told CNN. Experts said that it is in the interest of both the US and Iran to strike a deal while they still can. 'Iran's maximum point of leverage is right now, where there is interest in negotiating and Iran can obtain concessions and sanctions relief during this period,' Vakil said. 'The moment Iran weaponizes (its nuclear program), Iran loses that leverage.'
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
As Trump offers new nuclear talks, Iran weighs the cost of losing its final leverage
Editor's Note: A version of this story appears in CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a weekly look inside the region's biggest stories. Sign up here. Iran is currently mulling over US President Donald Trump's offer for talks on a new nuclear deal. Its answer will hinge on one key factor: Whether it believes that it can come out of it undefeated. Last week, Trump sent Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a rare letter proposing negotiations on a new nuclear deal, with a two-month ultimatum to reach an agreement, a source familiar with the letter's contents told CNN. The communication contained 'more of a threatening posture,' but apparently also offered 'some opportunities' for Iran, the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday, saying a response will come 'in the coming days.' Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, delivered the letter to the president of the United Arab Emirates last week, according to the source, and a UAE official passed it on the Iranians. In an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson over the weekend, Witkoff offered some insight into the letter's contents. 'It roughly said: I'm a president of peace, that's what I want. There's no reason for us to do this militarily. We should talk. We should clear up the misconceptions. We should create a verification program so that nobody worries about weaponization of your nuclear material, and I'd like to get to that place, because the alternative is not a very good alternative.' This month, the United States launched strikes on one of the few remaining Iran-allied militias still posing a potent threat to its interests. The attacks on Yemen's Houthi rebels served as a warning shot – a preview of what Iran itself might face if it refuses to cooperate, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz told ABC News. With Iran's economy in freefall, its grip on the region slipping and public anger mounting, US officials may see a perfect opportunity to force Tehran's hand – by tightening the economic noose and making the threat of military action unmistakably clear. But experts warn it won't be that straightforward: Iran is deeply wary of appearing weak, and the last thing it wants is to be seen as capitulating to Trump. 'This is a very fluid moment,' Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN. 'There is scope for miscalculation, there is scope for crisis, scope of a military attack on Iran.' Tehran has in recent weeks repeatedly rejected direct negotiations over a potential nuclear deal with the US, saying it won't come to the table with a gun pointed to its head and fears that Washington will once again renege on its commitments, as it did seven years ago during Trump's first presidential term. In its response to Trump's recent letter, Iran will take into account 'both the threats and the opportunities,' Araghchi said, vowing that it wouldn't negotiate 'under pressure and threats or increased sanctions.' Talks would have to take place 'under equal footing,' he said. For Iran, giving in to Trump's maximalist approach of piling on more sanctions and repeatedly threatening military action equates to surrender, a position it is not willing to entertain, experts said. 'The Iranians are trying to disabuse Trump from the belief that they are so weak that capitulation is actually on the table,' Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington DC-based Quincy Institute, told CNN. Iranian leaders have dismissed the idea of speaking to Washington, with President Masoud Pezeshkian saying this month that Iran 'won't bow in humiliation before anyone.' 'I won't come to negotiate with you. Go do whatever the hell you want,' Pezeshkian was cited as saying by the Tehran Times. It comes after the Trump administration reinstated a maximum pressure campaign on Iran in February, aimed at preventing the Islamic Republic from building a nuclear weapon. According to the memorandum, the US would also 'implement a campaign aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero,' and deny Iran intercontinental ballistic missiles. But analysts say that Trump's efforts to arm-twist the Iranians may not have the desired effect, since yielding to Washington completely is considered as too dangerous a move for Tehran under the current geopolitical climate. From Iran's standpoint 'the risk of capitulation is even more dangerous, and I don't think the Trump administration is fully grasping that,' Parsi said. Since Israel began its war in Gaza on October 7, 2023, Iran and Israel have exchanged two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks, the first time either side has directly attacked the other, as Iran-backed militias across the region launched strikes against Israeli and US interests in protest at the Gaza conflict. With Israel's decapitation campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the war in Gaza against Hamas, the Islamic Republic's influence in the region has weakened significantly. Its nuclear program is now one of its final points of leverage. In December, United Nations nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters that Iran is 'dramatically' accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, closer to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade. In January, Grossi again warned that Iran is 'pressing the gas pedal' on its uranium enrichment. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful. Experts point to a deep-seated mistrust in Washington's reliability as a key factor behind Iran's hesitation to engage with Trump on a new deal. A controversial exchange between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office last month only reinforced that idea for the Islamic Republic. During that exchange, Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian president in front of international media. 'Zelensky was asked to say 'thank you,' admit that Ukraine has 'no cards,' and 'respect' the Americans after he asked for security guarantees,' the Tehran Times wrote, citing Pezeshkian's reasons for refusing to talk to Trump. 'You should be ashamed of yourself after what you did to Zelensky recently,' Iranian media cited Pezeshkian as saying. From Tehran's perspective, if Washington can turn its back on an ally, there's little reason to believe it would keep its commitment to an adversary. As Trump's letter made its way to Iran, Khamenei reiterated his refusal to engage with Washington, reminding the world that this is the same American president who, in 2018, unilaterally withdrew from the landmark nuclear deal brokered with world powers just three years earlier. Formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the agreement was intended to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions, thereby preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. In a post on X this month, Khamenei said Trump was trying to 'deceive public opinion' by saying Washington is ready to negotiate. 'How could we hold negotiations with (the) US when we know they don't fulfill their commitments?' Khamenei said, adding that 'if the goal of entering negotiations is for the sanctions to be removed, negotiating with this US administration won't result in the sanctions being removed.' Further complicating the potential for new talks between Tehran and Washington are Iran's domestic politics, with anti-US hardliners and pro-talks reformists jostling for power. 'Conservatives see an opportunity at this moment to attack the Pezeshkian administration, to assert themselves domestically but also perhaps in the nuclear dimension,' Vakil told CNN. Experts said that it is in the interest of both the US and Iran to strike a deal while they still can. 'Iran's maximum point of leverage is right now, where there is interest in negotiating and Iran can obtain concessions and sanctions relief during this period,' Vakil said. 'The moment Iran weaponizes (its nuclear program), Iran loses that leverage.' CNN's Rosa Rahimi and Alayna Treene contributed reporting.
Egypt Independent
15-03-2025
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
In Netanyahu's new Middle East, Syria could become Israel's biggest strategic gain
Editor's Note: A version of this story appears in CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a weekly look inside the region's biggest stories. Sign up here. CNN — Just hours after Islamist rebels ousted longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood at edge of the occupied Golan Heights and looked out over Syria. The historic downfall will create 'very important opportunities' for Israel, he said in a video message. As Syria plunged into chaos after Assad's fall – its war-ravaged people grappling with an uncertain future and its ethnic and religious minorities wary of the new leadership's jihadist history – Netanyahu's government saw an opportunity to advance his quest to reshape the Middle East, one that envisions splitting Syria into smaller autonomous regions. 'A stable Syria can only be a federal Syria that includes different autonomies and respects different ways of life,' Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar told European leaders at a meeting in Brussels last month. Since Hamas' October 7 attack and ensuing regional conflicts, Netanyahu has repeatedly boasted about 'changing the face of the Middle East' in Israel's favor. He views the developments in Syria as a direct result of Israel's actions and is now seizing the opportunity to expand territorial control and establish zones of influence by seeking alliances with minority groups in Syria's peripheries. In the days that followed Assad's ouster, Netanyahu ordered an unprecedented ground push into Syria, driving Israeli forces deeper into the country than ever before and upending Israel's 50-year tacit détente with the Assads. The escalation quickly abandoned Netanyahu's initial pledge to practice 'good neighborliness' to the new Syria. Hundreds of airstrikes targeted the remnants of Assad's military to prevent them from falling into the hands of militant groups, and Israeli forces seized Mount Hermon, Syria's highest peak, and a strategically vital position overlooking Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. On Monday, Israel targeted radar sites and military command centers in southern Syria, and on Thursday, it targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Syrian capital Damascus. Civil defence members stand at a damaged site after Israel carried out an air strike on the Syrian capital Damascus on Thursday. Firas Makdesi/Reuters Israel has vowed to continue, with an Israeli official telling CNN that the country won't allow the new Syrian regime's forces to deploy in southern Syria, seeing them as a threat to Israeli citizens. Shifting border Israel's border with Syria had remained largely unchanged since the 1967 war, when it occupied and later annexed the Golan Heights from Syria in a move rejected by most of the international community but endorsed by US President Donald Trump during his first term. But Israel's recent actions in Syria have blurred the lines of that border as it takes more territory. Israel has never fully demarcated its borders with its neighbors. For half a century, Hafez al-Assad and his son, Bashar, ruled Syria ruthlessly, enduring wars, rebellions, and uprisings while stoking sectarian fears to deter calls for change. The younger Assad avoided direct confrontation with Israel but provided its archenemy, Iran, with key supply routes to Tehran's armed proxy groups, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, which fired thousands of rockets at Israel during the Israel-Hamas war. Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known by his nom du guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and once linked to Al-Qaeda – ousted Assad in a Turkish-backed lightning offensive before assuming power in December. Shedding traditional attire and military fatigues, he adopted a suit and tie, repeatedly telling foreign news outlets that he had no interest in confronting Israel. 'He thought he could court Israel in the sense of reassuring it that there would be no violence along its border and no fight with Israel… but Israel is emboldened by the last year-and-a-half, and with the support of the Trump administration is looking for greater ambition,' Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, said. Syria's leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in the Syrian capital Damascus on December 8 after ousting Bashar Al Assad. Abdulaziz Ketaz/AFP/Getty Images Israeli officials now say there will be an Israeli military presence in Syria 'indefinitely' and have called for the protection of Syria's Druze and Kurdish people, significant minorities living in Syria's south and northeast respectively. The Druze populate three main provinces close to the Israeli-occupied Golan heights in the south of the country. 'Jolani (Sharaa) took off his galabiya (robe), put on a suit, and presented a moderate face – now he has removed the mask and revealed his true identity: a jihadist terrorist from the Al-Qaida school, committing atrocities against the civilian population,' Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said last week after forces loyal to Sharaa killed hundreds of members of the Alawite minority in response to an attempt by supporters of Assad to take control of cities near Syria's Mediterranean coast. The slaughter, which claimed more than 800 people on both sides, underscored the danger to Sharaa's fragile regime as regional players intensify efforts to forge alliances with different communities within Syria. If Israel succeeds in creating a demilitarized zone in Syria with the backing of local Druze residents, it will bring large parts of the country's south under Israeli influence, representing Israel's most significant territorial control in Syria since its founding. 'There is a real danger that eventually that will kick in to create a spiral of escalation,' Charles Lister, a senior fellow and head of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, told CNN. 'The (Syrian) interim government has done nothing in response to all these Israeli actions.' If that changes, 'all hell can break loose,' he added. In recent weeks, Sharaa has taken a harsher stance on Israel's moves, condemning its advances as 'hostile expansionism' while moving to reconcile with the very minorities Israel has courted. A day after the bloody violence on the coast over the weekend, Sharaa signed a landmark agreement with Kurdish-led forces to integrate them into state institutions, and is reportedly close to signing a similar deal with the Druze in southern Syria. Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, said that Israel's actions are driven by its concern that Syria's unrest and instability will spill over into its territory. 'What motivates Israel is the fear (of) the emergence of an Islamist regime near our border that is hostile to Israel… they decided not to count on what's going on right now but to make sure that if a threat were to emerge it will be there to curtail it,' Valensi told CNN. 'The prevalent perception in Israel is that we shouldn't rely on the pragmatism that Sharaa is demonstrating so far, and that we should be prepared for the negative scenario.' Courting Syria's minorities As Netanyahu seeks to expand Israel's influence in Syria, he has singled out Syria's Druze for protection, seeking to ally with a religious minority that could become disenfranchised by Syria's new Islamist rulers. Netanyahu and Katz instructed the Israeli military earlier this month to 'prepare to defend' the Druze in Syria and said that Israel 'will not allow the extremist Islamic regime in Syria to harm' the group. Syrian Druze may also be allowed to work in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The Druze, an ethnic Arab group following an offshoot of Islam, also have a significant presence in Israel and the Golan Heights. Although most Golan Druze identify as Syrian Arabs and reject the Israeli state, some have accepted Israeli citizenship. In Israel, Druze citizens are required to serve in the military – unlike their Muslim and Christian Arab compatriots. Many members of the Syrian Druze community have rejected Netanyahu's offer for support since the fall of Assad. Crowds took to the streets of Suwayda, a Druze majority Syrian city, to protest his call to demilitarize southern Syria and regional leaders representing the group accused Israel of expansionary goals. Walid Jumblatt, a Lebanese Druze leader who is widely respected by Druze outside Lebanon, warned about Israel's ambitions last week. 'Israel wants to use tribes, sects and religions for its own benefit. It wants to fragment the region,' he told a news conference in Beirut Sunday. The Druze 'should be careful,' he added. However, some community members, worried that Sharaa may impose strict Islamic rule in Syria, have privately welcomed Netanyahu's offer, seeing it as a guarantee for protection in an uncertain future, a local activist and a journalist told CNN. In the wake of Netanyahu's comments, a few thousand Druze members formed an armed faction called the Military Council, they said. The group 'barely registers on a scale of relevance,' Lister said. 'There is a very, very small faction in Suwayda that appear to be hinting at the idea that they would be open to some kind of external protection.' Israel also sees Syria's Kurds as a potential ally and has called for them to be protected against a Turkish military campaign. Turkey blames Syria's Kurdish militants of being linked the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant separatist group in Turkey. 'The problem with creating alliances with non-Sunni Muslim minorities or non-Arab minorities is that most Syrians actually want to have unity, so I think Israel will continue try to create tension… because Israel was so outward in its ambitions that it has had an opposite effect and created a moment of unity amongst Syrians,' Hall said. Israeli tanks are seen at Al Hamadyeh region near the occupied Golan Heights in Quneitra, Syria on January 16. Ercin Erturk/Anadolu/Getty Images Spheres of influence While Israel's moves in Syria may have been the most visible, it is not the only regional or global player that has sought to expand its influence there. Turkey, which had long opposed the Assad regime and pushed for his ouster, plans to sign a defense pact with Sharaa that could see the deployment of fighter jets in two bases in central Syria. 'Turkey does have plans with Damascus' permission to occupy at least two major airbases in central Syria, deploy fighter jets into Syria in order to exert some semblance of Syrian sovereignty,' Lister said. 'Of course that is directed at Israel.' Saudi Arabia, where al-Sharaa was born and spent his early years, deployed a royal jet last month to transport him to Riyadh for meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a bold gesture that underscored the kingdom's intent to reassert its dominance in the region while signaling the decline of Iran's once-formidable sway over Syria. Meanwhile, Russia, which was pivotal in keeping Assad in power in exchange for a strategic military presence on the Mediterranean, has now lost its foothold in Syria. Reuters reported last month that amid Trump's lack of clarity on Syria and concern over Turkey's growing influence, Israel is lobbying the US to let Russia keep its military bases there in an effort to keep the country weak and decentralized. CNN could not confirm the report. 'If any other force in Syria today believes that Israel will permit other hostile forces to use Syria as a base of operations against us, they are gravely mistaken,' Netanyahu said in a news conference with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month. 'Israel will act to prevent any threat from emerging near our border in southwest Syria.'
Yahoo
14-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
In Netanyahu's new Middle East, Syria could become Israel's biggest strategic gain
Editor's Note: A version of this story appears in CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a weekly look inside the region's biggest stories. Sign up here. Just hours after Islamist rebels ousted longtime Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood at edge of the occupied Golan Heights and looked out over Syria. The historic downfall will create 'very important opportunities' for Israel, he said in a video message. As Syria plunged into chaos after Assad's fall – its war-ravaged people grappling with an uncertain future and its ethnic and religious minorities wary of the new leadership's jihadist history – Netanyahu's government saw an opportunity to advance his quest to reshape the Middle East, one that envisions splitting Syria into smaller autonomous regions. 'A stable Syria can only be a federal Syria that includes different autonomies and respects different ways of life,' Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar told European leaders at a meeting in Brussels last month. Since Hamas' October 7 attack and ensuing regional conflicts, Netanyahu has repeatedly boasted about 'changing the face of the Middle East' in Israel's favor. He views the developments in Syria as a direct result of Israel's actions and is now seizing the opportunity to expand territorial control and establish zones of influence by seeking alliances with minority groups in Syria's peripheries. In the days that followed Assad's ouster, Netanyahu ordered an unprecedented ground push into Syria, driving Israeli forces deeper into the country than ever before and upending Israel's 50-year tacit détente with the Assads. The escalation quickly abandoned Netanyahu's initial pledge to practice 'good neighborliness' to the new Syria. Hundreds of airstrikes targeted the remnants of Assad's military to prevent them from falling into the hands of militant groups, and Israeli forces seized Mount Hermon, Syria's highest peak, and a strategically vital position overlooking Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. On Monday, Israel targeted radar sites and military command centers in southern Syria, and on Thursday, it targeted Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Syrian capital Damascus. Israel has vowed to continue, with an Israeli official telling CNN that the country won't allow the new Syrian regime's forces to deploy in southern Syria, seeing them as a threat to Israeli citizens. Israel's border with Syria had remained largely unchanged since the 1967 war, when it occupied and later annexed the Golan Heights from Syria in a move rejected by most of the international community but endorsed by US President Donald Trump during his first term. But Israel's recent actions in Syria have blurred the lines of that border as it takes more territory. Israel has never fully demarcated its borders with its neighbors. For half a century, Hafez al-Assad and his son, Bashar, ruled Syria ruthlessly, enduring wars, rebellions, and uprisings while stoking sectarian fears to deter calls for change. The younger Assad avoided direct confrontation with Israel but provided its archenemy, Iran, with key supply routes to Tehran's armed proxy groups, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, which fired thousands of rockets at Israel during the Israel-Hamas war. Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – formerly known by his nom du guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and once linked to Al-Qaeda – ousted Assad in a Turkish-backed lightning offensive before assuming power in December. Shedding traditional attire and military fatigues, he adopted a suit and tie, repeatedly telling foreign news outlets that he had no interest in confronting Israel. 'He thought he could court Israel in the sense of reassuring it that there would be no violence along its border and no fight with Israel… but Israel is emboldened by the last year-and-a-half, and with the support of the Trump administration is looking for greater ambition,' Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, said. Israeli officials now say there will be an Israeli military presence in Syria 'indefinitely' and have called for the protection of Syria's Druze and Kurdish people, significant minorities living in Syria's south and northeast respectively. The Druze populate three main provinces close to the Israeli-occupied Golan heights in the south of the country. 'Jolani (Sharaa) took off his galabiya (robe), put on a suit, and presented a moderate face – now he has removed the mask and revealed his true identity: a jihadist terrorist from the Al-Qaida school, committing atrocities against the civilian population,' Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said last week after forces loyal to Sharaa killed hundreds of members of the Alawite minority in response to an attempt by supporters of Assad to take control of cities near Syria's Mediterranean coast. The slaughter, which claimed more than 800 people on both sides, underscored the danger to Sharaa's fragile regime as regional players intensify efforts to forge alliances with different communities within Syria. If Israel succeeds in creating a demilitarized zone in Syria with the backing of local Druze residents, it will bring large parts of the country's south under Israeli influence, representing Israel's most significant territorial control in Syria since its founding. 'There is a real danger that eventually that will kick in to create a spiral of escalation,' Charles Lister, a senior fellow and head of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, told CNN. 'The (Syrian) interim government has done nothing in response to all these Israeli actions.' If that changes, 'all hell can break loose,' he added. In recent weeks, Sharaa has taken a harsher stance on Israel's moves, condemning its advances as 'hostile expansionism' while moving to reconcile with the very minorities Israel has courted. A day after the bloody violence on the coast over the weekend, Sharaa signed a landmark agreement with Kurdish-led forces to integrate them into state institutions, and is reportedly close to signing a similar deal with the Druze in southern Syria. Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, said that Israel's actions are driven by its concern that Syria's unrest and instability will spill over into its territory. 'What motivates Israel is the fear (of) the emergence of an Islamist regime near our border that is hostile to Israel… they decided not to count on what's going on right now but to make sure that if a threat were to emerge it will be there to curtail it,' Valensi told CNN. 'The prevalent perception in Israel is that we shouldn't rely on the pragmatism that Sharaa is demonstrating so far, and that we should be prepared for the negative scenario.' As Netanyahu seeks to expand Israel's influence in Syria, he has singled out Syria's Druze for protection, seeking to ally with a religious minority that could become disenfranchised by Syria's new Islamist rulers. Netanyahu and Katz instructed the Israeli military earlier this month to 'prepare to defend' the Druze in Syria and said that Israel 'will not allow the extremist Islamic regime in Syria to harm' the group. Syrian Druze may also be allowed to work in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The Druze, an ethnic Arab group following an offshoot of Islam, also have a significant presence in Israel and the Golan Heights. Although most Golan Druze identify as Syrian Arabs and reject the Israeli state, some have accepted Israeli citizenship. In Israel, Druze citizens are required to serve in the military – unlike their Muslim and Christian Arab compatriots. Many members of the Syrian Druze community have rejected Netanyahu's offer for support since the fall of Assad. Crowds took to the streets of Suwayda, a Druze majority Syrian city, to protest his call to demilitarize southern Syria and regional leaders representing the group accused Israel of expansionary goals. Walid Jumblatt, a Lebanese Druze leader who is widely respected by Druze outside Lebanon, warned about Israel's ambitions last week. 'Israel wants to use tribes, sects and religions for its own benefit. It wants to fragment the region,' he told a news conference in Beirut Sunday. The Druze 'should be careful,' he added. However, some community members, worried that Sharaa may impose strict Islamic rule in Syria, have privately welcomed Netanyahu's offer, seeing it as a guarantee for protection in an uncertain future, a local activist and a journalist told CNN. In the wake of Netanyahu's comments, a few thousand Druze members formed an armed faction called the Military Council, they said. The group 'barely registers on a scale of relevance,' Lister said. 'There is a very, very small faction in Suwayda that appear to be hinting at the idea that they would be open to some kind of external protection.' Israel also sees Syria's Kurds as a potential ally and has called for them to be protected against a Turkish military campaign. Turkey blames Syria's Kurdish militants of being linked the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant separatist group in Turkey. 'The problem with creating alliances with non-Sunni Muslim minorities or non-Arab minorities is that most Syrians actually want to have unity, so I think Israel will continue try to create tension… because Israel was so outward in its ambitions that it has had an opposite effect and created a moment of unity amongst Syrians,' Hall said. While Israel's moves in Syria may have been the most visible, it is not the only regional or global player that has sought to expand its influence there. Turkey, which had long opposed the Assad regime and pushed for his ouster, plans to sign a defense pact with Sharaa that could see the deployment of fighter jets in two bases in central Syria. 'Turkey does have plans with Damascus' permission to occupy at least two major airbases in central Syria, deploy fighter jets into Syria in order to exert some semblance of Syrian sovereignty,' Lister said. 'Of course that is directed at Israel.' Saudi Arabia, where al-Sharaa was born and spent his early years, deployed a royal jet last month to transport him to Riyadh for meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a bold gesture that underscored the kingdom's intent to reassert its dominance in the region while signaling the decline of Iran's once-formidable sway over Syria. Meanwhile, Russia, which was pivotal in keeping Assad in power in exchange for a strategic military presence on the Mediterranean, has now lost its foothold in Syria. Reuters reported last month that amid Trump's lack of clarity on Syria and concern over Turkey's growing influence, Israel is lobbying the US to let Russia keep its military bases there in an effort to keep the country weak and decentralized. CNN could not confirm the report. 'If any other force in Syria today believes that Israel will permit other hostile forces to use Syria as a base of operations against us, they are gravely mistaken,' Netanyahu said in a news conference with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month. 'Israel will act to prevent any threat from emerging near our border in southwest Syria.' CNN's Nadeen Ebrahim contributed to this report.
