Latest news with #MichaelDahm
Asia Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- Asia Times
India's coming counter to Pakistan's Chinese-made fighters
India's new stealth fighter plan aims to reassert air dominance in a region where Pakistan's Chinese-made jets recently drew first blood in an intensifying South Asian arms race. This month, India's Ministry of Defense green-lighted a blueprint for developing its most sophisticated stealth fighter jet, known as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), Reuters reported. The AMCA twin-engine aircraft project, led by the state-owned Aeronautical Development Agency, aims to enhance the Indian Air Force's declining fleet, which has been reduced to just 31 squadrons, far below the authorized 42. India's planned indigenous upgrade comes as China helps to rapidly improve rival Pakistan's air power, including with Chinese-made J-10 fighters and long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. The Indian government intends to partner with a domestic firm for the AMCA, inviting bids from both private and state-owned companies. In March, a defense committee recommended further private sector involvement to enhance production speed and reduce reliance on Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd., which has faced delays in delivering Tejas aircraft due to supply chain issues. The AMCA initiative signals India's determination to reassert aerial dominance and reinforce its strategic posture in an increasingly volatile regional security landscape. Reuters reported that Pakistan's new J-10C fighters and India's Rafale jets went head-to-head during skirmishes over Kashmir in April, resulting in Pakistan shooting down multiple Indian aircraft. US officials confirmed the loss of two Indian jets, including a French-made Rafale, which was reportedly downed by a Pakistani J-10, the Reuters report said. The aerial fight highlighted the limitations of the Rafale and the Indian Air Force's overall force composition. A January 2025 report from the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) indicates that the Rafale's deficiencies in radar stealth and dedicated suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) are significant weaknesses. The report references French Air Force officers who say that operations against stealth fighters during joint exercises are challenging with the Rafale's existing sensor capabilities. It cautions that although the Rafale is effective in the short to medium term, its shortcomings may restrict it to a support role in high-intensity coalition missions led by fifth-generation aircraft. Further, Michael Dahm noted in a podcast this month for the Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Studies that while India has a larger air force than Pakistan, it is a 'hodgepodge' of Western, Israeli, Russian and Indian technology that makes systems integration difficult. In contrast, Wang Xiangsui and Charriot Zhai pointed out in an article for The China Academy this month that Pakistan benefits from a streamlined fighter aircraft fleet consisting of just six types, with all fighter acquisitions since 2000 sourced from China. In contrast, they mention that India utilizes 14 types of fighters from five different countries, which significantly complicates the integration of data links. Further, Pakistan's impending acquisition of fifth-generation fighters has intensified the pressure on India to accelerate its air force modernization. Newsweek reported this month that China was accelerating the delivery of its J-31 fifth-generation fighter to Pakistan, with the first batch expected to arrive in early 2026. The report stated that China was offering a 50% discount on the J-35A jets, along with favorable payment terms, a move interpreted as a reward for Pakistan's military posture and a sign of deepening bilateral defense ties. Regarding capabilities, the J-31 may be considered the 'low-end' fighter in China's 'high-low' fifth-generation fighter force mix, with the J-20 positioned at the 'high-end' of the spectrum. As an all-high-end fighter fleet is prohibitively expensive, a high-low fighter mix balances costs and capabilities, with high-end fighters, such as the J-20, having greater range and heavier armaments to penetrate enemy airspace, while a low-end fighter, such as the J-31, can operate in contested airspace. Air Force Technology notes that the twin-engine J-31 features a diverterless supersonic inlet, a stealth-optimized airframe with titanium spars and a low radar cross-section. The report states that the J-31 is equipped with internal weapons bays and wing-mounted payload hardpoints, and features advanced sensors, electro-optical targeting and infrared search-and-track systems. It notes that the J-31 is powered by Russian-made RD-93 turbofan engines, capable of reaching speeds of 2,200 kilometers per hour with a service ceiling of 20,000 meters. As for AMCA's capabilities, Aero Time reports that the twin-engine aircraft is designed to replace India's aging Russian jets and will incorporate stealth, supercruise, sensor fusion and advanced networking. However, it mentions AMCA is not expected to enter production until the late 2020s or early 2030s. The report says India is also exploring foreign partnerships, possibly with Safran, General Electric or Rolls-Royce, for the development of its high-thrust engine. Pakistan's winning use of Chinese fighters showcased China's military tech to the world, with the April 2025 air clashes over Kashmir becoming a showroom for Chinese-made hardware. Defense Security Asia reported this month that Bangladesh is eyeing the purchase of J-10 fighters to replace its aging F-7s from China. According to the report, if Bangladesh decides to purchase J-10s, India might find itself outflanked by Chinese airpower on two fronts. Additionally, India's shift to domestic fighter production means it could purchase fewer imported aircraft, driving competitors such as France and the US to offer India even better deals or technology to remain relevant. India could also offer its AMCA and Tejas light fighter for export to Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia, as a counter to China's strategy of exporting sophisticated weapons to India's South Asian rivals. Ultimately, India's stealth fighter program is not just a technological leap but a geopolitical statement, an assertion that it will not readily cede aerial dominance or strategic initiative to a tightening China-Pakistan axis.
CNN
25-03-2025
- Business
- CNN
‘Invasion' barges and deep-sea cable cutters: why new Chinese maritime tech is spooking defense watchers
From a chain of massive barges stretching from a Chinese beach into the sea, to a powerful new design for cutting undersea cables at record depths, China's latest maritime innovations have captured the attention of defense experts – fueling concerns about their potential role in a future invasion of Taiwan. While these new tools may ostensibly have civilian uses, experts say they highlight China's expanding military and technological prowess – at a time when the ruling Communist Party is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, the self-governing democracy it claims as its own and has vowed to seize by force if necessary. China already sends fighter jets and warships near the island almost daily and stages increasingly frequent military drills to intimidate what it calls 'Taiwan separatist forces.' Meanwhile Taiwan is looking on nervously as US President Donald Trump transforms Washington's global relationships with his mercantilist 'America First' foreign policy, discarding decades-old guarantees towards Europe and pushing long-standing Asian allies and partners to pay more for US protection. Footage of the landing barges first surfaced – then quickly vanished – on Chinese social media this month, showing three enormous vessels stationed off a sandy beach strewn with seaweed, fishing boats and a handful of scattered tourists. The three barges stood above the water on sturdy legs and were linked by bridges to form one giant causeway that stretched from the beach to more than 800 meters from the shore. CNN has geolocated the video to a public beach near Zhanjiang, a port city in China's southern Guangdong province and home to the headquarters of the Chinese navy's South Sea Fleet. Satellite imagery has since confirmed their location. Defense analysts J. Michael Dahm and Thomas Shugart said the barges constitute a 'significant upgrade' to the amphibious assault capacity of China's People Liberation Army (PLA). In the event of an invasion of Taiwan, they could form a relocatable pier, delivering large amounts of tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment – once fire superiority has been established. 'The innovation really is the volume that they could potentially put onto a remote beach or a damaged port or an austere landing area, probably in excess of hundreds of vehicles per hour, if they chose to do that,' said Dahm, a retired US Navy intelligence officer and senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Shugart, a former US submariner and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, noted the barges add to a growing list of innovative platforms, munitions and weapon systems the Chinese military has tested in recent years. 'There's nothing like them in the West. I have never seen anything like what we're seeing here,' he said. CNN has reached out to China's defense ministry for comment. Taiwan's defense ministry said it had assessed that the new barges were 'designed with an extendable ramp to serve as a makeshift dock, enabling the rapid offloading of main battle tanks and various vehicles in support of amphibious operations.' It said it would continue to monitor the barges and assess their capabilities and operational limitations. Meanwhile, Chinese researchers from state-affiliated institutions claimed to have developed a powerful deep-sea device: a cable cutter capable of severing heavily fortified communication and power lines at depths of up to 4,000 meters – nearly twice the depth of the world's deepest undersea cable. The new design, published last month in the peer-reviewed Chinese journal Mechanical Engineer and first reported by the South China Morning Post, emerges amid growing concerns over the vulnerability of Taiwan's critical infrastructure. Recently, suspicious damage to the island's undersea cables has fueled fears of Chinese efforts to undermine the island's communications with the outside world. Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, said cable-cutting tools are commonly used for maintenance, and a breakthrough in the ability to sever cables at record depths with great efficiency isn't alarming in itself. 'But what is alarming here is the political context that we attach to it,' he noted, pointing to recent incidents of undersea cable damage involving Chinese vessels around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea. The concern is that in the event of an invasion, China could sever the undersea cables around Taiwan, sowing panic among its public and potentially disrupting the island's military communication with the US and other partners. But Koh pointed out that the new cable-cutting design may have existed so far only in the experimental stage. 'Whether it has translated into operationalized tool for use is a big question mark,' he said. The video of the landing barges offered the first close-up look at what the Naval News reported in January as 'special and unusual barges' spotted at Guangzhou Shipyard. The outlet described them as reminiscent of Britain's Mulberry Harbors, which were built for the Allied invasion of Normandy during World War II. While some analysts suggest the barges could serve civilian purposes such as humanitarian relief, many experts – both in and outside Taiwan – believe they were built primarily for a military purpose. Su Tzu-yun, a director at the Institute for National Defense Security Research in Taiwan, said the barges could offer the PLA a strategic advantage by creating makeshift costal landing points – particularly if Taiwan destroys its own ports in self-defense in the event of an invasion. 'Such barges have six or eight hydro feet that can lift them out of the water to create a stable platform, and then they can create a bridge from shallow water to a deeper area,' Su said. Shugart, the former submariner, said the barges could even potentially drop a ramp across seawalls or other obstacles onto a coastal road, allowing the PLA to send troops and equipment to shore. He added that the barges also enhance operational speed. 'We've seen them set up and broken down and set up again multiple times within a matter of days,' Shugart said, citing satellite images. However, due to their size and slow speed, these vessels are highly vulnerable to enemy fire and would likely only be deployed as part of a second wave, following the initial landing forces across the Strait, which is around 80 miles wide at its narrowest point, experts say. 'Before they even think about embarking a landing force and sending troops across the (Taiwan) Strait, they would already make sure that they have seized air, information and naval dominance all the way across the strait,' Shugart said. The barges 'wouldn't be brought forward until the environment had been made safe for them, just like in World War II D-Day, the US had complete air control and sea control before the landing forces went ashore,' he added. Collin, the expert at RSIS in Singapore, said the barges are not designed for high intensity warfare at sea. 'They are slow, they are not so well protected on their own, and they require escorts, which must go at the same speed as those barges. And for some of the war fighting assets, speed is the essence,' he said. Days before the video of the barges surfaced on Chinese social media, the Marine Safety Administration of Guangdong province issued a notice banning ships from entering a long, narrow body of water due to 'maritime tests.' The geo-coordinates of the restricted zone matched the location of the barges confirmed by satellite imagery. CNN has reached out to the Guangdong government agency for comment. By March 21, satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed that the barges had moved about 15 kilometers south along the coast. The images also captured a roll-on/roll-off (RO-RO) ferry docked beside the third and largest barge, positioned farthest from shore. Days later, a Planet Labs satellite image showed another RO-RO cargo ship approaching the same barge from the opposite side. According to Shugart, Chinese authorities may be testing the barges' ability to interface with civilian RO-RO vessels, which could significantly boost the PLA's sealift capabilities by enabling the rapid transfer of large numbers of wheeled and tracked vehicles. Designed to transport large numbers of vehicles to overseas markets, RO-RO ships have proliferated globally, but especially in China in recent years to meet the surging global demand for Chinese electric vehicles. But Chinese military planners and state media have also taken note of their dual-use capabilities to support the PLA's operations. In a 2021 military drill, China's state broadcaster CCTV praised RO-RO ferries for enabling 'large-scale, full-unit land and sea deployment with immediate unloading and loading.' Footage aired by the broadcaster showed rows of tanks neatly lined up inside such a ferry. 'These barges can significantly improve the PLA capability to deliver logistics following an invasion,' said Dahm, the former US Navy intelligence officer. But he noted they are only part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's ambition to modernize the PLA and transform it into a 'world class' military. American officials believe Xi has instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, though they have stressed that doesn't mean an invasion will occur in 2027. 'In the context of all of the other improvements that we're seeing to PLA capabilities and especially to PLA infrastructure, the barges are just the shiny object that draws attention to the fact that the PLA is making these preparations to be prepared to act on Xi Jinping's orders in the next several years, if called upon to do so,' Dahm said. CNN's Wayne Chang contributed reporting.
Yahoo
25-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Invasion' barges and deep-sea cable cutters: why new Chinese maritime tech is spooking defense watchers
From a chain of massive barges stretching from a Chinese beach into the sea, to a powerful new design for cutting undersea cables at record depths, China's latest maritime innovations have captured the attention of defense experts – fueling concerns about their potential role in a future invasion of Taiwan. While these new tools may ostensibly have civilian uses, experts say they highlight China's expanding military and technological prowess – at a time when the ruling Communist Party is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, the self-governing democracy it claims as its own and has vowed to seize by force if necessary. China already sends fighter jets and warships near the island almost daily and stages increasingly frequent military drills to intimidate what it calls 'Taiwan separatist forces.' Meanwhile Taiwan is looking on nervously as US President Donald Trump transforms Washington's global relationships with his mercantilist 'America First' foreign policy, discarding decades-old guarantees towards Europe and pushing long-standing Asian allies and partners to pay more for US protection. Footage of the landing barges first surfaced – then quickly vanished – on Chinese social media this month, showing three enormous vessels stationed off a sandy beach strewn with seaweed, fishing boats and a handful of scattered tourists. The three barges stood above the water on sturdy legs and were linked by bridges to form one giant causeway that stretched from the beach to more than 800 meters from the shore. CNN has geolocated the video to a public beach near Zhanjiang, a port city in China's southern Guangdong province and home to the headquarters of the Chinese navy's South Sea Fleet. Satellite imagery has since confirmed their location. Defense analysts J. Michael Dahm and Thomas Shugart said the barges constitute a 'significant upgrade' to the amphibious assault capacity of China's People Liberation Army (PLA). In the event of an invasion of Taiwan, they could form a relocatable pier, delivering large amounts of tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment – once fire superiority has been established. 'The innovation really is the volume that they could potentially put onto a remote beach or a damaged port or an austere landing area, probably in excess of hundreds of vehicles per hour, if they chose to do that,' said Dahm, a retired US Navy intelligence officer and senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Shugart, a former US submariner and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, noted the barges add to a growing list of innovative platforms, munitions and weapon systems the Chinese military has tested in recent years. 'There's nothing like them in the West. I have never seen anything like what we're seeing here,' he said. CNN has reached out to China's defense ministry for comment. Taiwan's defense ministry said it had assessed that the new barges were 'designed with an extendable ramp to serve as a makeshift dock, enabling the rapid offloading of main battle tanks and various vehicles in support of amphibious operations.' It said it would continue to monitor the barges and assess their capabilities and operational limitations. Meanwhile, Chinese researchers from state-affiliated institutions claimed to have developed a powerful deep-sea device: a cable cutter capable of severing heavily fortified communication and power lines at depths of up to 4,000 meters – nearly twice the depth of the world's deepest undersea cable. The new design, published last month in the peer-reviewed Chinese journal Mechanical Engineer and first reported by the South China Morning Post, emerges amid growing concerns over the vulnerability of Taiwan's critical infrastructure. Recently, suspicious damage to the island's undersea cables has fueled fears of Chinese efforts to undermine the island's communications with the outside world. Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, said cable-cutting tools are commonly used for maintenance, and a breakthrough in the ability to sever cables at record depths with great efficiency isn't alarming in itself. 'But what is alarming here is the political context that we attach to it,' he noted, pointing to recent incidents of undersea cable damage involving Chinese vessels around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea. The concern is that in the event of an invasion, China could sever the undersea cables around Taiwan, sowing panic among its public and potentially disrupting the island's military communication with the US and other partners. But Koh pointed out that the new cable-cutting design may have existed so far only in the experimental stage. 'Whether it has translated into operationalized tool for use is a big question mark,' he said. The video of the landing barges offered the first close-up look at what the Naval News reported in January as 'special and unusual barges' spotted at Guangzhou Shipyard. The outlet described them as reminiscent of Britain's Mulberry Harbors, which were built for the Allied invasion of Normandy during World War II. While some analysts suggest the barges could serve civilian purposes such as humanitarian relief, many experts – both in and outside Taiwan – believe they were built primarily for a military purpose. Su Tzu-yun, a director at the Institute for National Defense Security Research in Taiwan, said the barges could offer the PLA a strategic advantage by creating makeshift costal landing points – particularly if Taiwan destroys its own ports in self-defense in the event of an invasion. 'Such barges have six or eight hydro feet that can lift them out of the water to create a stable platform, and then they can create a bridge from shallow water to a deeper area,' Su said. Shugart, the former submariner, said the barges could even potentially drop a ramp across seawalls or other obstacles onto a coastal road, allowing the PLA to send troops and equipment to shore. He added that the barges also enhance operational speed. 'We've seen them set up and broken down and set up again multiple times within a matter of days,' Shugart said, citing satellite images. However, due to their size and slow speed, these vessels are highly vulnerable to enemy fire and would likely only be deployed as part of a second wave, following the initial landing forces across the Strait, which is around 80 miles wide at its narrowest point, experts say. 'Before they even think about embarking a landing force and sending troops across the (Taiwan) Strait, they would already make sure that they have seized air, information and naval dominance all the way across the strait,' Shugart said. The barges 'wouldn't be brought forward until the environment had been made safe for them, just like in World War II D-Day, the US had complete air control and sea control before the landing forces went ashore,' he added. Collin, the expert at RSIS in Singapore, said the barges are not designed for high intensity warfare at sea. 'They are slow, they are not so well protected on their own, and they require escorts, which must go at the same speed as those barges. And for some of the war fighting assets, speed is the essence,' he said. Days before the video of the barges surfaced on Chinese social media, the Marine Safety Administration of Guangdong province issued a notice banning ships from entering a long, narrow body of water due to 'maritime tests.' The geo-coordinates of the restricted zone matched the location of the barges confirmed by satellite imagery. CNN has reached out to the Guangdong government agency for comment. By March 21, satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed that the barges had moved about 15 kilometers south along the coast. The images also captured a roll-on/roll-off (RO-RO) ferry docked beside the third and largest barge, positioned farthest from shore. Days later, a Planet Labs satellite image showed another RO-RO cargo ship approaching the same barge from the opposite side. According to Shugart, Chinese authorities may be testing the barges' ability to interface with civilian RO-RO vessels, which could significantly boost the PLA's sealift capabilities by enabling the rapid transfer of large numbers of wheeled and tracked vehicles. Designed to transport large numbers of vehicles to overseas markets, RO-RO ships have proliferated globally, but especially in China in recent years to meet the surging global demand for Chinese electric vehicles. But Chinese military planners and state media have also taken note of their dual-use capabilities to support the PLA's operations. In a 2021 military drill, China's state broadcaster CCTV praised RO-RO ferries for enabling 'large-scale, full-unit land and sea deployment with immediate unloading and loading.' Footage aired by the broadcaster showed rows of tanks neatly lined up inside such a ferry. 'These barges can significantly improve the PLA capability to deliver logistics following an invasion,' said Dahm, the former US Navy intelligence officer. But he noted they are only part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's ambition to modernize the PLA and transform it into a 'world class' military. American officials believe Xi has instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, though they have stressed that doesn't mean an invasion will occur in 2027. 'In the context of all of the other improvements that we're seeing to PLA capabilities and especially to PLA infrastructure, the barges are just the shiny object that draws attention to the fact that the PLA is making these preparations to be prepared to act on Xi Jinping's orders in the next several years, if called upon to do so,' Dahm said. CNN's Wayne Chang contributed reporting.
CNN
25-03-2025
- Business
- CNN
‘Invasion' barges and deep-sea cable cutters: why new Chinese maritime tech is spooking defense watchers
From a chain of massive barges stretching from a Chinese beach into the sea, to a powerful new design for cutting undersea cables at record depths, China's latest maritime innovations have captured the attention of defense experts – fueling concerns about their potential role in a future invasion of Taiwan. While these new tools may ostensibly have civilian uses, experts say they highlight China's expanding military and technological prowess – at a time when the ruling Communist Party is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, the self-governing democracy it claims as its own and has vowed to seize by force if necessary. China already sends fighter jets and warships near the island almost daily and stages increasingly frequent military drills to intimidate what it calls 'Taiwan separatist forces.' Meanwhile Taiwan is looking on nervously as US President Donald Trump transforms Washington's global relationships with his mercantilist 'America First' foreign policy, discarding decades-old guarantees towards Europe and pushing long-standing Asian allies and partners to pay more for US protection. Footage of the landing barges first surfaced – then quickly vanished – on Chinese social media this month, showing three enormous vessels stationed off a sandy beach strewn with seaweed, fishing boats and a handful of scattered tourists. The three barges stood above the water on sturdy legs and were linked by bridges to form one giant causeway that stretched from the beach to more than 800 meters from the shore. CNN has geolocated the video to a public beach near Zhanjiang, a port city in China's southern Guangdong province and home to the headquarters of the Chinese navy's South Sea Fleet. Satellite imagery has since confirmed their location. Defense analysts J. Michael Dahm and Thomas Shugart said the barges constitute a 'significant upgrade' to the amphibious assault capacity of China's People Liberation Army (PLA). In the event of an invasion of Taiwan, they could form a relocatable pier, delivering large amounts of tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment – once fire superiority has been established. 'The innovation really is the volume that they could potentially put onto a remote beach or a damaged port or an austere landing area, probably in excess of hundreds of vehicles per hour, if they chose to do that,' said Dahm, a retired US Navy intelligence officer and senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Shugart, a former US submariner and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, noted the barges add to a growing list of innovative platforms, munitions and weapon systems the Chinese military has tested in recent years. 'There's nothing like them in the West. I have never seen anything like what we're seeing here,' he said. CNN has reached out to China's defense ministry for comment. Taiwan's defense ministry said it had assessed that the new barges were 'designed with an extendable ramp to serve as a makeshift dock, enabling the rapid offloading of main battle tanks and various vehicles in support of amphibious operations.' It said it would continue to monitor the barges and assess their capabilities and operational limitations. Meanwhile, Chinese researchers from state-affiliated institutions claimed to have developed a powerful deep-sea device: a cable cutter capable of severing heavily fortified communication and power lines at depths of up to 4,000 meters – nearly twice the depth of the world's deepest undersea cable. The new design, published last month in the peer-reviewed Chinese journal Mechanical Engineer and first reported by the South China Morning Post, emerges amid growing concerns over the vulnerability of Taiwan's critical infrastructure. Recently, suspicious damage to the island's undersea cables has fueled fears of Chinese efforts to undermine the island's communications with the outside world. Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, said cable-cutting tools are commonly used for maintenance, and a breakthrough in the ability to sever cables at record depths with great efficiency isn't alarming in itself. 'But what is alarming here is the political context that we attach to it,' he noted, pointing to recent incidents of undersea cable damage involving Chinese vessels around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea. The concern is that in the event of an invasion, China could sever the undersea cables around Taiwan, sowing panic among its public and potentially disrupting the island's military communication with the US and other partners. But Koh pointed out that the new cable-cutting design may have existed so far only in the experimental stage. 'Whether it has translated into operationalized tool for use is a big question mark,' he said. The video of the landing barges offered the first close-up look at what the Naval News reported in January as 'special and unusual barges' spotted at Guangzhou Shipyard. The outlet described them as reminiscent of Britain's Mulberry Harbors, which were built for the Allied invasion of Normandy during World War II. While some analysts suggest the barges could serve civilian purposes such as humanitarian relief, many experts – both in and outside Taiwan – believe they were built primarily for a military purpose. Su Tzu-yun, a director at the Institute for National Defense Security Research in Taiwan, said the barges could offer the PLA a strategic advantage by creating makeshift costal landing points – particularly if Taiwan destroys its own ports in self-defense in the event of an invasion. 'Such barges have six or eight hydro feet that can lift them out of the water to create a stable platform, and then they can create a bridge from shallow water to a deeper area,' Su said. Shugart, the former submariner, said the barges could even potentially drop a ramp across seawalls or other obstacles onto a coastal road, allowing the PLA to send troops and equipment to shore. He added that the barges also enhance operational speed. 'We've seen them set up and broken down and set up again multiple times within a matter of days,' Shugart said, citing satellite images. However, due to their size and slow speed, these vessels are highly vulnerable to enemy fire and would likely only be deployed as part of a second wave, following the initial landing forces across the Strait, which is around 80 miles wide at its narrowest point, experts say. 'Before they even think about embarking a landing force and sending troops across the (Taiwan) Strait, they would already make sure that they have seized air, information and naval dominance all the way across the strait,' Shugart said. The barges 'wouldn't be brought forward until the environment had been made safe for them, just like in World War II D-Day, the US had complete air control and sea control before the landing forces went ashore,' he added. Collin, the expert at RSIS in Singapore, said the barges are not designed for high intensity warfare at sea. 'They are slow, they are not so well protected on their own, and they require escorts, which must go at the same speed as those barges. And for some of the war fighting assets, speed is the essence,' he said. Days before the video of the barges surfaced on Chinese social media, the Marine Safety Administration of Guangdong province issued a notice banning ships from entering a long, narrow body of water due to 'maritime tests.' The geo-coordinates of the restricted zone matched the location of the barges confirmed by satellite imagery. CNN has reached out to the Guangdong government agency for comment. By March 21, satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed that the barges had moved about 15 kilometers south along the coast. The images also captured a roll-on/roll-off (RO-RO) ferry docked beside the third and largest barge, positioned farthest from shore. Days later, a Planet Labs satellite image showed another RO-RO cargo ship approaching the same barge from the opposite side. According to Shugart, Chinese authorities may be testing the barges' ability to interface with civilian RO-RO vessels, which could significantly boost the PLA's sealift capabilities by enabling the rapid transfer of large numbers of wheeled and tracked vehicles. Designed to transport large numbers of vehicles to overseas markets, RO-RO ships have proliferated globally, but especially in China in recent years to meet the surging global demand for Chinese electric vehicles. But Chinese military planners and state media have also taken note of their dual-use capabilities to support the PLA's operations. In a 2021 military drill, China's state broadcaster CCTV praised RO-RO ferries for enabling 'large-scale, full-unit land and sea deployment with immediate unloading and loading.' Footage aired by the broadcaster showed rows of tanks neatly lined up inside such a ferry. 'These barges can significantly improve the PLA capability to deliver logistics following an invasion,' said Dahm, the former US Navy intelligence officer. But he noted they are only part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's ambition to modernize the PLA and transform it into a 'world class' military. American officials believe Xi has instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, though they have stressed that doesn't mean an invasion will occur in 2027. 'In the context of all of the other improvements that we're seeing to PLA capabilities and especially to PLA infrastructure, the barges are just the shiny object that draws attention to the fact that the PLA is making these preparations to be prepared to act on Xi Jinping's orders in the next several years, if called upon to do so,' Dahm said. CNN's Wayne Chang contributed reporting.
