Latest news with #MichelleShi
The Advertiser
25-05-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Price moves to help RBA plot course through uncertainty
The Reserve Bank could use fresh inflation insights to gauge the depth of further rate cuts as global uncertainty threatens Australia's economic progress. Consumer price data for April, to be released on Wednesday, will help guide the RBA on future changes after it reduced the cash rate to its lowest level in two years. The decision showed the central bank was moving in a more dovish direction as Australia's main inflation measure returned to its target range of two to three per cent, NAB economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence said. The RBA on Tuesday cut the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. NAB economists predict another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, bringing the cash rate to a "broadly neutral" stance of 3.1 per cent by November. But US tariff drama and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's economic actions will continue to loom large over RBA meetings. High levels of global uncertainty are likely to persist even as trade tensions ease between the US and China, the NAB economists warn. "Unless pushed, the RBA could take a more gradual path towards neutral while watching the inflation data over time," they said. Over the previous decade, Australian inflation has rarely been "just right". JP Morgan's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Ben Jarman, warned the monthly inflation indicator could suggest "too much of a good thing" and drop below the target band. However, quarterly trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred measure - was more likely to be sticky due to a strong jobs market, which meant core inflation could stay within the bank's target into 2026, Mr Jarman said. Rate cuts could lead to a rebound in home construction, Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon said, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics prepares to release building approvals data on Friday. While the sector is already showing signs of improved confidence with homebuilding expected to increase across the next five years, long-term issues such as land shortages pose risks to affordability and reaching national supply targets. "Australia has the capacity to deliver, but it will take a co-ordinated response from all three tiers of government to overcome these constraints," Mr Reardon said. Retail trade figures for April are also due on Friday after the RBA flagged consumer spending had been softer than expected in recent months. This will be the one of the last retail trade releases before the statistics bureau replaces the series with a broader household spending indicator. The Reserve Bank could use fresh inflation insights to gauge the depth of further rate cuts as global uncertainty threatens Australia's economic progress. Consumer price data for April, to be released on Wednesday, will help guide the RBA on future changes after it reduced the cash rate to its lowest level in two years. The decision showed the central bank was moving in a more dovish direction as Australia's main inflation measure returned to its target range of two to three per cent, NAB economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence said. The RBA on Tuesday cut the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. NAB economists predict another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, bringing the cash rate to a "broadly neutral" stance of 3.1 per cent by November. But US tariff drama and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's economic actions will continue to loom large over RBA meetings. High levels of global uncertainty are likely to persist even as trade tensions ease between the US and China, the NAB economists warn. "Unless pushed, the RBA could take a more gradual path towards neutral while watching the inflation data over time," they said. Over the previous decade, Australian inflation has rarely been "just right". JP Morgan's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Ben Jarman, warned the monthly inflation indicator could suggest "too much of a good thing" and drop below the target band. However, quarterly trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred measure - was more likely to be sticky due to a strong jobs market, which meant core inflation could stay within the bank's target into 2026, Mr Jarman said. Rate cuts could lead to a rebound in home construction, Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon said, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics prepares to release building approvals data on Friday. While the sector is already showing signs of improved confidence with homebuilding expected to increase across the next five years, long-term issues such as land shortages pose risks to affordability and reaching national supply targets. "Australia has the capacity to deliver, but it will take a co-ordinated response from all three tiers of government to overcome these constraints," Mr Reardon said. Retail trade figures for April are also due on Friday after the RBA flagged consumer spending had been softer than expected in recent months. This will be the one of the last retail trade releases before the statistics bureau replaces the series with a broader household spending indicator. The Reserve Bank could use fresh inflation insights to gauge the depth of further rate cuts as global uncertainty threatens Australia's economic progress. Consumer price data for April, to be released on Wednesday, will help guide the RBA on future changes after it reduced the cash rate to its lowest level in two years. The decision showed the central bank was moving in a more dovish direction as Australia's main inflation measure returned to its target range of two to three per cent, NAB economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence said. The RBA on Tuesday cut the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. NAB economists predict another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, bringing the cash rate to a "broadly neutral" stance of 3.1 per cent by November. But US tariff drama and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's economic actions will continue to loom large over RBA meetings. High levels of global uncertainty are likely to persist even as trade tensions ease between the US and China, the NAB economists warn. "Unless pushed, the RBA could take a more gradual path towards neutral while watching the inflation data over time," they said. Over the previous decade, Australian inflation has rarely been "just right". JP Morgan's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Ben Jarman, warned the monthly inflation indicator could suggest "too much of a good thing" and drop below the target band. However, quarterly trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred measure - was more likely to be sticky due to a strong jobs market, which meant core inflation could stay within the bank's target into 2026, Mr Jarman said. Rate cuts could lead to a rebound in home construction, Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon said, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics prepares to release building approvals data on Friday. While the sector is already showing signs of improved confidence with homebuilding expected to increase across the next five years, long-term issues such as land shortages pose risks to affordability and reaching national supply targets. "Australia has the capacity to deliver, but it will take a co-ordinated response from all three tiers of government to overcome these constraints," Mr Reardon said. Retail trade figures for April are also due on Friday after the RBA flagged consumer spending had been softer than expected in recent months. This will be the one of the last retail trade releases before the statistics bureau replaces the series with a broader household spending indicator. The Reserve Bank could use fresh inflation insights to gauge the depth of further rate cuts as global uncertainty threatens Australia's economic progress. Consumer price data for April, to be released on Wednesday, will help guide the RBA on future changes after it reduced the cash rate to its lowest level in two years. The decision showed the central bank was moving in a more dovish direction as Australia's main inflation measure returned to its target range of two to three per cent, NAB economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence said. The RBA on Tuesday cut the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. NAB economists predict another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, bringing the cash rate to a "broadly neutral" stance of 3.1 per cent by November. But US tariff drama and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's economic actions will continue to loom large over RBA meetings. High levels of global uncertainty are likely to persist even as trade tensions ease between the US and China, the NAB economists warn. "Unless pushed, the RBA could take a more gradual path towards neutral while watching the inflation data over time," they said. Over the previous decade, Australian inflation has rarely been "just right". JP Morgan's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Ben Jarman, warned the monthly inflation indicator could suggest "too much of a good thing" and drop below the target band. However, quarterly trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred measure - was more likely to be sticky due to a strong jobs market, which meant core inflation could stay within the bank's target into 2026, Mr Jarman said. Rate cuts could lead to a rebound in home construction, Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon said, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics prepares to release building approvals data on Friday. While the sector is already showing signs of improved confidence with homebuilding expected to increase across the next five years, long-term issues such as land shortages pose risks to affordability and reaching national supply targets. "Australia has the capacity to deliver, but it will take a co-ordinated response from all three tiers of government to overcome these constraints," Mr Reardon said. Retail trade figures for April are also due on Friday after the RBA flagged consumer spending had been softer than expected in recent months. This will be the one of the last retail trade releases before the statistics bureau replaces the series with a broader household spending indicator.
West Australian
25-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Price moves to help RBA plot course through uncertainty
The Reserve Bank could use fresh inflation insights to gauge the depth of further rate cuts as global uncertainty threatens Australia's economic progress. Consumer price data for April, to be released on Wednesday, will help guide the RBA on future changes after it reduced the cash rate to its lowest level in two years. The decision showed the central bank was moving in a more dovish direction as Australia's main inflation measure returned to its target range of two to three per cent, NAB economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence said. The RBA on Tuesday cut the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. NAB economists predict another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, bringing the cash rate to a "broadly neutral" stance of 3.1 per cent by November. But US tariff drama and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's economic actions will continue to loom large over RBA meetings. High levels of global uncertainty are likely to persist even as trade tensions ease between the US and China, the NAB economists warn. "Unless pushed, the RBA could take a more gradual path towards neutral while watching the inflation data over time," they said. Over the previous decade, Australian inflation has rarely been "just right". JP Morgan's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Ben Jarman, warned the monthly inflation indicator could suggest "too much of a good thing" and drop below the target band. However, quarterly trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred measure - was more likely to be sticky due to a strong jobs market, which meant core inflation could stay within the bank's target into 2026, Mr Jarman said. Rate cuts could lead to a rebound in home construction, Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon said, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics prepares to release building approvals data on Friday. While the sector is already showing signs of improved confidence with homebuilding expected to increase across the next five years, long-term issues such as land shortages pose risks to affordability and reaching national supply targets. "Australia has the capacity to deliver, but it will take a co-ordinated response from all three tiers of government to overcome these constraints," Mr Reardon said. Retail trade figures for April are also due on Friday after the RBA flagged consumer spending had been softer than expected in recent months. This will be the one of the last retail trade releases before the statistics bureau replaces the series with a broader household spending indicator.
Perth Now
25-05-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Price moves to help RBA plot course through uncertainty
The Reserve Bank could use fresh inflation insights to gauge the depth of further rate cuts as global uncertainty threatens Australia's economic progress. Consumer price data for April, to be released on Wednesday, will help guide the RBA on future changes after it reduced the cash rate to its lowest level in two years. The decision showed the central bank was moving in a more dovish direction as Australia's main inflation measure returned to its target range of two to three per cent, NAB economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence said. The RBA on Tuesday cut the official cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent. NAB economists predict another three rate cuts in the second half of 2025, bringing the cash rate to a "broadly neutral" stance of 3.1 per cent by November. But US tariff drama and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's economic actions will continue to loom large over RBA meetings. High levels of global uncertainty are likely to persist even as trade tensions ease between the US and China, the NAB economists warn. "Unless pushed, the RBA could take a more gradual path towards neutral while watching the inflation data over time," they said. Over the previous decade, Australian inflation has rarely been "just right". JP Morgan's chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Ben Jarman, warned the monthly inflation indicator could suggest "too much of a good thing" and drop below the target band. However, quarterly trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred measure - was more likely to be sticky due to a strong jobs market, which meant core inflation could stay within the bank's target into 2026, Mr Jarman said. Rate cuts could lead to a rebound in home construction, Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon said, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics prepares to release building approvals data on Friday. While the sector is already showing signs of improved confidence with homebuilding expected to increase across the next five years, long-term issues such as land shortages pose risks to affordability and reaching national supply targets. "Australia has the capacity to deliver, but it will take a co-ordinated response from all three tiers of government to overcome these constraints," Mr Reardon said. Retail trade figures for April are also due on Friday after the RBA flagged consumer spending had been softer than expected in recent months. This will be the one of the last retail trade releases before the statistics bureau replaces the series with a broader household spending indicator.
West Australian
23-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Australian shares on track to make the week a winner
The Australian share market is set to finish the week higher, after Wall Street settled on the back of better-than-expected US manufacturing data. By lunchtime on Friday, the S&P/ASX200 rose 17.6 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,366.2, as the broader All Ordinaries gained 19.9 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 8,591.3. The top 200 is about 2.1 per cent from its record-high close on February 14, while Wall Street's S&P500 index is almost five per cent short of its peak and down 1.8 per cent for the week. "The overnight moves in major markets were mixed, partly supported by a recovery in the US business sentiment as reported by the latest PMIs (purchasing manufacturing index figures)," Westpac senior economist Mantas Vanagas said. "After a notable sell off earlier this week, the US Treasuries rallied, with yields falling across the curve." Closer to home, NAB economists say Australia's economy is on track to stick its soft landing, despite emerging downside global economic risks, while downgrading their national GDP growth forecast for 2025. "We have lowered our expectation for GDP growth this year to 1.8 per cent year-on-year (from two per cent) but left our inflation and labour market tracks unchanged," economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence wrote. "The RBA will need to continue to lower rates in the near term to ensure that the labour market remains healthy." Six of 11 local sectors were trading higher by lunchtime, with financials, IT stocks and real estate helping lift the bourse. All big four banks were in the green after trending lower on Thursday, with NAB and ANZ in front with gains of more than 1.1 per cent. Energy stocks pushed 0.7 per cent higher with oil slipping since Thursday's close because of a stronger US dollar and expected output increases from OPEC+ countries. Brent crude futures were trading at $US63.69 a barrel, with their West Texas equivalent fetching $US61.34. Miners were heavy, with large cap players Fortescue and Rio Tinto down more than one per cent each and gold producers a mixed bag as appetite for the safe haven stalled as the greenback pushed higher on the back of easing US bond yields. Gold futures are trading at $US3,299 ($A5,130), about six per cent short of the precious metal's all-time high. Bitcoin, so-called digital gold, hit a fresh peak Friday morning of more than $US111,800 ($A173,860) as hype grows around the asset as a potential safe. IT stocks were leading the gains for the top-200, the sector lifting 0.9 per cent as Block, Zip Co, Megaport and NEXTDC etched gains of two per cent of more. The Australian dollar is buying 64.29 US cents, down from 64.38 US cents after easing bond yields pushed the greenback higher. The US dollar strength index briefly popped above 100 overnight but has since slipped to 99.67. The greenback's value against a basket of major currencies is down almost ten per cent since President Trump's inauguration in January.
Perth Now
23-05-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Australian shares on track to make the week a winner
The Australian share market is set to finish the week higher, after Wall Street settled on the back of better-than-expected US manufacturing data. By lunchtime on Friday, the S&P/ASX200 rose 17.6 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 8,366.2, as the broader All Ordinaries gained 19.9 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 8,591.3. The top 200 is about 2.1 per cent from its record-high close on February 14, while Wall Street's S&P500 index is almost five per cent short of its peak and down 1.8 per cent for the week. "The overnight moves in major markets were mixed, partly supported by a recovery in the US business sentiment as reported by the latest PMIs (purchasing manufacturing index figures)," Westpac senior economist Mantas Vanagas said. "After a notable sell off earlier this week, the US Treasuries rallied, with yields falling across the curve." Closer to home, NAB economists say Australia's economy is on track to stick its soft landing, despite emerging downside global economic risks, while downgrading their national GDP growth forecast for 2025. "We have lowered our expectation for GDP growth this year to 1.8 per cent year-on-year (from two per cent) but left our inflation and labour market tracks unchanged," economists Michelle Shi and Gareth Spence wrote. "The RBA will need to continue to lower rates in the near term to ensure that the labour market remains healthy." Six of 11 local sectors were trading higher by lunchtime, with financials, IT stocks and real estate helping lift the bourse. All big four banks were in the green after trending lower on Thursday, with NAB and ANZ in front with gains of more than 1.1 per cent. Energy stocks pushed 0.7 per cent higher with oil slipping since Thursday's close because of a stronger US dollar and expected output increases from OPEC+ countries. Brent crude futures were trading at $US63.69 a barrel, with their West Texas equivalent fetching $US61.34. Miners were heavy, with large cap players Fortescue and Rio Tinto down more than one per cent each and gold producers a mixed bag as appetite for the safe haven stalled as the greenback pushed higher on the back of easing US bond yields. Gold futures are trading at $US3,299 ($A5,130), about six per cent short of the precious metal's all-time high. Bitcoin, so-called digital gold, hit a fresh peak Friday morning of more than $US111,800 ($A173,860) as hype grows around the asset as a potential safe. IT stocks were leading the gains for the top-200, the sector lifting 0.9 per cent as Block, Zip Co, Megaport and NEXTDC etched gains of two per cent of more. The Australian dollar is buying 64.29 US cents, down from 64.38 US cents after easing bond yields pushed the greenback higher. The US dollar strength index briefly popped above 100 overnight but has since slipped to 99.67. The greenback's value against a basket of major currencies is down almost ten per cent since President Trump's inauguration in January.
